<p>香港財政狀況的改善引發了對政府在即將到來的預算中提供更多 “甜頭” 的強烈呼聲，包括跨黨派對中產階級更多税收減免的要求，但經濟學家對此類普遍措施表示謹慎。他們更支持有針對性的支出，最近幾周，關心團體提出了對基層居民，尤其是失業者提供更具體幫助的要求。這場日益激烈的辯論源於香港財政司司長陳茂波去年八月披露，香港將在連續三年赤字後實現早期的運營賬户盈餘。今年二月，陳表示，股市繁榮幫助政府的運營賬户在 2025-2026 財年提前回到盈餘狀態，比預期早了一年。根據一些會計公司的估計，盈餘可能達到約 5 億港元（6400 萬美元）。政府去年推出了一次性支持措施，總額為 83 億港元，比 2024 年的 115 億港元減少了 28%，比 2023 年的 594 億港元減少了 86%。隨着公共財政的改善，今年預算中對更多 “甜頭” 的呼聲日益高漲。大多數政治團體都推動擴大中產階級的税收減免。由選舉委員會和功能團體立法會議員組成的 G19 集團，以及香港工商專業聯盟（BPA）提議將基本薪俸税免税額從當前的 132,000 港元提高。G19 呼籲將免税額提高至 140,000 港元，而 BPA 希望將其提高至 152,000 港元。他們還呼籲提高兒童津貼，其他主要政黨也有類似要求。香港最大的政黨——香港民主建港協進聯盟，以及親商的自由黨正在遊説為僱傭外籍家庭傭工的家庭設立新的税收免税額。G19 集團的立法會議員陳俊英表示，中產階級希望在過去三年緊縮預算後獲得更多減免措施，因為這些預算只給他們帶來了 “少許甜頭”。“雖然今年的公共賬户表現更好，但現在是時候增加更多甜頭了，” 陳説。“中產階級一直貢獻更多，但他們的好處主要來自於自己的努力。” 關於 G19 集團將薪俸税免税額提高至 140,000 港元的提議，陳指出這將減少約 7.4 億港元的税收收入，對總收入的影響微乎其微。他指出，1 月份股市的日均成交額為 2500 億港元，產生了近 3 億港元的股票印花税，陳表示：“僅僅兩天的股票印花税收入就足以讓所有工資收入者更快樂。” 但經濟學家警告不要過早提供額外的 “甜頭”，指出資本賬户赤字和未來債券發行的重大償還。他們反對跨黨派共識提高薪俸税免税額，這將減少納税人數，並削弱政府的第二大收入來源，佔 2024-25 年總收入的近 16%。香港中文大學深圳金融研究院的經濟學家李小波表示，運營賬户盈餘是由股市反彈推動的，這些數字還包括債券收益，這並不能為大規模減免措施提供堅實基礎。“我們在這個財政年度運氣不錯，因為股市表現良好，但在市場下行時我們的財政狀況將變得岌岌可危，” 他説。“像公共住房租金減免和税收回扣這樣的措施是可控的，因為它們是一次性的，但長期的甜頭措施並不合適。” 他強調，政府在提高免税額時需要謹慎，因為這將產生長期影響。“土地收入大幅下降，如果沒有其他來源來彌補短缺，這樣做是沒有意義的，” 李指出。香港城市與經濟研究中心主任關卓照教授建議，今年的預算應採取 “防禦性措施”，在結構性赤字的情況下進一步減少支出，同時將 “甜頭” 保持在最低限度。關指出，政府通過債券發行為基礎設施和北部大都會特大項目融資，這些債務必須連本帶息償還，他表示，在這樣的財政義務下增加 “甜頭” 支出是自相矛盾的。政府在 2025-26 財年的前三個季度通過債券發行籌集了近 1400 億港元，並償還了超過 300 億港元的債務。儘管仍需穩定和可持續的收入來源，關表示，提高免税額與這一目標相悖。他補充説，中產階級已經從股市繁榮和穩定的房地產市場中受益，他呼籲當局關注對低收入居民的救助措施。“中產階級有工作，房價下跌已趨於平穩，股市也上漲。不要告訴我他們破產了，” 關説。“隨着失業率上升，基層確實需要幫助。支持他們比給中產階級發放補助更好。” 香港中文大學劉佐德全球經濟與金融研究所執行董事莊太亮教授也呼籲對在經濟復甦和轉型中受到重創的人羣提供有針對性的援助。“向失業者發放幾億港元的資金，已經能為他們提供實質性幫助，” 他説。莊建議對因引入勞工而失業的、失業率超過 7% 的行業工人提供一次性補貼。社區組織協會副主任施麗珊預計，改善的公共財政將增強對低收入居民的財政支持，例如提高對失業者的再培訓補貼。“基層經歷了艱難的一年，尤其是由於引入勞工，許多商店和公司關閉，” 她説。“一些工人的工資被削減，還有一些人報告説找工作越來越困難。” 該團體還呼籲建立失業和就業不足援助制度，提供短期津貼。施還呼籲增加工作家庭津貼和綜合社會保障援助計劃下的補貼，並重新引入已取消的 2500 港元學生補助，但僅限於低收入家庭，理由是他們的教育支出沉重。為了加大政府支出削減力度，58 個每年獲得超過 5000 萬港元的大型社會福利組織將在 2027-28 年前面臨 7% 的資金削減，而 121 箇中小型團體將面臨 3% 的削減。社會福利立法會議員陳曼怡呼籲政府在預算恢復平衡的情況下停止計劃削減社會福利組織的資金，表達了對服務質量下降和一線員工壓力加大的擔憂。“政府應該停止削減社會福利支出。這是一種社會投資，減少它將帶來更大的長期成本，” 她説。這位立法會議員還預計政府將增加對社會福利團體的支持和資金，特別是在服務中使用技術方面。曾任立法會財政委員會主席的陳俊英呼籲政府在財務規劃中保持謹慎，引用地緣政治緊張局勢和美國降息速度放緩。“在 2025 年，各種積極因素匯聚在一起：美國降息、股市表現強勁和市場繁榮。投資一切都表現良好，” 他説。“但 2026 年可能不會像去年那麼好。”</p>

恆生指數

<p>香港財政狀況的改善引發了對即將發佈的預算中更多 “甜頭” 的呼聲，特別是對中產階級的税收減免。然而，經濟學家們對此表示謹慎，主張採取針對性的支出措施。財政司司長宣佈 2025-2026 財年的財政盈餘，這促使政治團體提出提高税收免税額的建議。儘管一些人主張增加支持，但專家警告稱，這些措施可能會削弱未來的收入，並建議由於現有的財政義務，應採取謹慎的態度</p>

<p>Hong Kong’s improving fiscal position has prompted a groundswell of calls for the government to offer more “sweeteners” in the coming budget, including a cross-party demand for more tax relief for the middle class, but economists have cautioned against such across-the-board measures. They were more supportive of targeted spending, a cause taken up in recent weeks by concern groups asking for more specific forms of help for grass-roots residents, especially the unemployed. The growing debate was sparked by Hong Kong finance chief Paul Chan Mo-po’s disclosure last August that the city was set to achieve an early operating account surplus after three consecutive years of deficit. In February, Chan said that a stock market boom had helped the government’s operating account return to surplus in the 2025-2026 financial year – a year earlier than projected. The surplus could reach about HK$500 million (US$64 million), according to estimates by some accounting firms. The government rolled out one-off support measures totalling HK$8.3 billion last year, a 28 per cent year-on-year reduction from HK$11.5 billion in 2024 and an 86 per cent drop from HK$59.4 billion in 2023. With the improved public finances, there has been a growing chorus for more sweeteners in this year’s budget. Most political groups have pushed for expanding tax breaks for the middle class. The G19 bloc, formed by the Election Committee and functional constituency lawmakers, and the Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA) have proposed raising the basic salaries tax allowance from the current HK$132,000. The G19 called for the allowance to be raised to HK$140,000, while the BPA hoped it would be increased to HK$152,000. They have also called for higher child allowances, as have other major parties. The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, the city’s biggest political party, and the pro-business Liberal Party are lobbying for a new tax allowance for families that hire foreign domestic workers. Lawmaker Ronick Chan Chun-ying of the G19 bloc said the middle class wanted more relief measures after the tight budgets of the past three years only offered them “little sweetness”. “While this year’s public account will perform better, it is time to add more sweetness,” Chan said. “The middle class have always contributed more, but their benefits largely come from their own efforts.” On the G19 bloc’s proposal to raise the salaries tax allowance to HK$140,000, Chan noted it would reduce tax revenue by about HK$740 million and have minimal impact on total income. Pointing out that the average daily turnover of the stock market in January stood at HK$250 billion, generating almost HK$300 million in stock stamp duty, Chan said: “Just about two days’ worth of stock stamp duty revenue is already enough to make all wage earners happier.” But economists cautioned against providing additional sweeteners too soon, citing the capital-account deficit and the substantial future repayment from bond issuance. They opposed the cross-party consensus to raise the salaries tax allowance, which would reduce the number of taxpayers and undermine the government’s second-largest source of revenue, accounting for nearly 16 per cent of the total revenue for 2024-25. Economist Simon Lee Siu-po of the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Shenzhen Finance Institute said the operating account surplus was driven by the stock market rally, and that the figures also included bond proceeds, which did not provide a sound basis for large-scale relief measures. “We have been fortunate this financial year as the stock market performed well, and our financial position would be precarious amid a market downturn,” he said. “Measures like public housing rent waivers and tax rebates are manageable since they are one-off, but long-term sweetener measures are not suitable.” He stressed that authorities needed to proceed with caution when raising the tax allowance, as this would have a long-term impact. “Land revenue has fallen sharply, and without other sources to cover the shortfall, it does not add up,” Lee noted. Professor Andy Kwan Cheuk-chiu, director of the ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, suggested this year’s budget adopt a “defensive approach” to reduce expenditure further amid a structural deficit while keeping sweeteners to a minimum. Kwan pointed to the government’s bond issuances to fund infrastructure and the Northern Metropolis megaproject, which must be repaid with interest, saying it would be contradictory to increase spending on sweeteners amid such financial obligations. The government raised nearly HK$140 billion from bond issuances in the first three quarters of 2025-26 and repaid more than HK$30 billion in bonds. While it was still in need of a stable and sustainable revenue source, Kwan said raising the tax allowance ran counter to that goal. He added that the middle class had benefited from the stock market boom and a stabilising property market, as he urged authorities to focus on relief measures for lower-income residents. “The middle class have jobs, the fall in property prices has moderated, and the stock market has gone up. Do not tell me they are broke,” Kwan said. “With the unemployment rate rising, the grass roots really need help. Supporting them would be better than giving handouts to the middle class.” Professor Terence Chong Tai-leung, executive director of the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance, also called for targeted aid for those hardest hit during the economic recovery and transition. “Distributing several hundred million [Hong Kong] dollars to target the unemployed would already provide them with substantial help,” he said. Chong proposed a one-off subsidy for workers in sectors with unemployment rates exceeding 7 per cent who had lost their jobs due to the importation of labour. Sze Lai-shan, deputy director of the Society for Community Organisation, expected that improved public finances would enhance financial support for lower-income residents, such as higher retraining subsidies for the unemployed. “The grass roots have experienced a tough year, particularly due to the import of labour, and many shops and companies have closed down,” she said. “Some workers have seen their wages cut, and some reported increasing difficulty in securing jobs.” The group also called for an unemployment and underemployment assistance system offering short-term allowances. Sze also called for an increase in the working family allowance and the subsidy under the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance scheme, and reintroducing an axed HK$2,500 student grant, but only for lower-income families, citing their heavy education expenses. In a bid to step up government expenditure cuts, 58 large social welfare organisations receiving more than HK$50 million annually were set for a 7 per cent reduction in funding by 2027-28, while 121 small to medium-sized groups would face a 3 per cent cut. Social welfare lawmaker Grace Chan Man-yee urged the government to halt planned funding cuts to social welfare organisations in light of a return to a balanced budget, expressing concerns over degrading service quality and heavy pressure on frontline staff. “The government should stop cutting social welfare expenses. It is a form of social investment, and reducing it will bring greater long-term costs,” she said. The legislator also expected the government to increase support and funding for social welfare groups, particularly for the use of technology in services. Ronick Chan, who chaired the legislature’s Finance Committee in the previous term, urged the government to remain prudent in its financial planning, citing geopolitical tensions and the slower pace of US interest rate cuts. “In 2025, various positive factors came together: US rate cuts, strong stock market performance and a booming market. Everything in investments did well,” he said. “But 2026 might not be as good as last year.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港財政狀況的改善引發了對政府在即將到來的預算中提供更多 “甜頭” 的強烈呼聲，包括跨黨派對中產階級更多税收減免的要求，但經濟學家對此類普遍措施表示謹慎。他們更支持有針對性的支出，最近幾周，關心團體提出了對基層居民，尤其是失業者提供更具體幫助的要求。這場日益激烈的辯論源於香港財政司司長陳茂波去年八月披露，香港將在連續三年赤字後實現早期的運營賬户盈餘。今年二月，陳表示，股市繁榮幫助政府的運營賬户在 2025-2026 財年提前回到盈餘狀態，比預期早了一年。根據一些會計公司的估計，盈餘可能達到約 5 億港元（6400 萬美元）。政府去年推出了一次性支持措施，總額為 83 億港元，比 2024 年的 115 億港元減少了 28%，比 2023 年的 594 億港元減少了 86%。隨着公共財政的改善，今年預算中對更多 “甜頭” 的呼聲日益高漲。大多數政治團體都推動擴大中產階級的税收減免。由選舉委員會和功能團體立法會議員組成的 G19 集團，以及香港工商專業聯盟（BPA）提議將基本薪俸税免税額從當前的 132,000 港元提高。G19 呼籲將免税額提高至 140,000 港元，而 BPA 希望將其提高至 152,000 港元。他們還呼籲提高兒童津貼，其他主要政黨也有類似要求。香港最大的政黨——香港民主建港協進聯盟，以及親商的自由黨正在遊説為僱傭外籍家庭傭工的家庭設立新的税收免税額。G19 集團的立法會議員陳俊英表示，中產階級希望在過去三年緊縮預算後獲得更多減免措施，因為這些預算只給他們帶來了 “少許甜頭”。“雖然今年的公共賬户表現更好，但現在是時候增加更多甜頭了，” 陳説。“中產階級一直貢獻更多，但他們的好處主要來自於自己的努力。” 關於 G19 集團將薪俸税免税額提高至 140,000 港元的提議，陳指出這將減少約 7.4 億港元的税收收入，對總收入的影響微乎其微。他指出，1 月份股市的日均成交額為 2500 億港元，產生了近 3 億港元的股票印花税，陳表示：“僅僅兩天的股票印花税收入就足以讓所有工資收入者更快樂。” 但經濟學家警告不要過早提供額外的 “甜頭”，指出資本賬户赤字和未來債券發行的重大償還。他們反對跨黨派共識提高薪俸税免税額，這將減少納税人數，並削弱政府的第二大收入來源，佔 2024-25 年總收入的近 16%。香港中文大學深圳金融研究院的經濟學家李小波表示，運營賬户盈餘是由股市反彈推動的，這些數字還包括債券收益，這並不能為大規模減免措施提供堅實基礎。“我們在這個財政年度運氣不錯，因為股市表現良好，但在市場下行時我們的財政狀況將變得岌岌可危，” 他説。“像公共住房租金減免和税收回扣這樣的措施是可控的，因為它們是一次性的，但長期的甜頭措施並不合適。” 他強調，政府在提高免税額時需要謹慎，因為這將產生長期影響。“土地收入大幅下降，如果沒有其他來源來彌補短缺，這樣做是沒有意義的，” 李指出。香港城市與經濟研究中心主任關卓照教授建議，今年的預算應採取 “防禦性措施”，在結構性赤字的情況下進一步減少支出，同時將 “甜頭” 保持在最低限度。關指出，政府通過債券發行為基礎設施和北部大都會特大項目融資，這些債務必須連本帶息償還，他表示，在這樣的財政義務下增加 “甜頭” 支出是自相矛盾的。政府在 2025-26 財年的前三個季度通過債券發行籌集了近 1400 億港元，並償還了超過 300 億港元的債務。儘管仍需穩定和可持續的收入來源，關表示，提高免税額與這一目標相悖。他補充説，中產階級已經從股市繁榮和穩定的房地產市場中受益，他呼籲當局關注對低收入居民的救助措施。“中產階級有工作，房價下跌已趨於平穩，股市也上漲。不要告訴我他們破產了，” 關説。“隨着失業率上升，基層確實需要幫助。支持他們比給中產階級發放補助更好。” 香港中文大學劉佐德全球經濟與金融研究所執行董事莊太亮教授也呼籲對在經濟復甦和轉型中受到重創的人羣提供有針對性的援助。“向失業者發放幾億港元的資金，已經能為他們提供實質性幫助，” 他説。莊建議對因引入勞工而失業的、失業率超過 7% 的行業工人提供一次性補貼。社區組織協會副主任施麗珊預計，改善的公共財政將增強對低收入居民的財政支持，例如提高對失業者的再培訓補貼。“基層經歷了艱難的一年，尤其是由於引入勞工，許多商店和公司關閉，” 她説。“一些工人的工資被削減，還有一些人報告説找工作越來越困難。” 該團體還呼籲建立失業和就業不足援助制度，提供短期津貼。施還呼籲增加工作家庭津貼和綜合社會保障援助計劃下的補貼，並重新引入已取消的 2500 港元學生補助，但僅限於低收入家庭，理由是他們的教育支出沉重。為了加大政府支出削減力度，58 個每年獲得超過 5000 萬港元的大型社會福利組織將在 2027-28 年前面臨 7% 的資金削減，而 121 箇中小型團體將面臨 3% 的削減。社會福利立法會議員陳曼怡呼籲政府在預算恢復平衡的情況下停止計劃削減社會福利組織的資金，表達了對服務質量下降和一線員工壓力加大的擔憂。“政府應該停止削減社會福利支出。這是一種社會投資，減少它將帶來更大的長期成本，” 她説。這位立法會議員還預計政府將增加對社會福利團體的支持和資金，特別是在服務中使用技術方面。曾任立法會財政委員會主席的陳俊英呼籲政府在財務規劃中保持謹慎，引用地緣政治緊張局勢和美國降息速度放緩。“在 2025 年，各種積極因素匯聚在一起：美國降息、股市表現強勁和市場繁榮。投資一切都表現良好，” 他説。“但 2026 年可能不會像去年那麼好。”</p>
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香港 2026-27 年度預算：是為基層還是中產階級提供 “優惠措施”？