<p>TradingKey - 2026 年 2 月，東京股市再次成為全球金融市場的風口浪尖。在高市早苗領導的自由民主黨（LDP）在眾議院選舉中獲得壓倒性勝利後，日經 225 指數在短短几天內接連創下歷史新高，目標直指 6 萬點里程碑。</p>
<p>日經指數在 2026 年能否持續上漲？全球資本為何在高市早苗壓倒性勝利後如此激進地下注？日本股市暴漲背後隱藏着哪些機遇與風險？</p>
<h2>日本股市加速上漲的驅動因素是什麼？</h2>
<p>日本股市近期的急劇上漲並非隨機的短期波動，而是多重積極因素匯聚的結果：政治清晰、擴張性財政政策的預期、相關全球行業的繁榮以及企業基本面的改善。這是一場由政策和基本面共同驅動的 “共識性反彈”。</p>
<p>2026 年 2 月 8 日，日本舉行了眾議院選舉，由高市早苗領導的自由民主黨（LDP）及其執政聯盟獲得壓倒性勝利。LDP 單獨贏得 316 個席位，創下自 1955 年成立以來的紀錄。</p>
<p>市場普遍認為，穩定的政治局勢將為經濟政策的順利實施鋪平道路，顯著提升投資者信心，併成為股市暴漲的直接觸發因素。</p>
<p>高市早苗的經濟政策被稱為 “Sanaenomics”，繼承並發展自 “Abenomics”，其核心目標是通過擴張性財政支出和寬鬆貨幣政策促進經濟復甦。</p>
<p>據報道，高市內閣計劃投資 6.4 萬億日元以支持半導體、人工智能（AI）和國防等戰略產業，同時推動暫停兩年的食品消費税；與此同時，日本政府推出了總額超過 21 萬億日元的經濟刺激計劃，旨在刺激消費並支持產業升級。</p>
<p>在貨幣政策方面，儘管日本銀行（BoJ）已將利率小幅提高至 0.75%，但仍然是全球最寬鬆的貨幣政策之一，並通過購買 ETF（持有約 83 萬億日元）繼續為市場提供 “底線” 流動性支持。</p>
<h2>高市早苗的選舉勝利為何對日本股市有利？</h2>
<p>全球資本重注高市早苗的根本原因在於，她的選舉勝利增強了市場對 “政策驅動經濟復甦” 的預期，而她的政策立場與股市利益緊密契合。</p>
<p>作為安倍晉三的忠實支持者，高市早苗堅持 “Abenomics” 的核心邏輯，專注於通過 “寬鬆財政 + 寬鬆貨幣” 政策刺激經濟增長和企業盈利。</p>
<p>在選舉期間，高市早苗多次強調推進公司治理改革的必要性，鼓勵企業增加股息和股票回購，以提高股本回報率（ROE）。市場預期高市的穩定政府將進一步推進這些改革，幫助提升日本股市的估值水平，吸引更多長期資本流入。</p>
<h2>國際資本是否加速流入日本？</h2>
<p>在高市的選舉勝利和股市持續上漲的背景下，國際資本明顯呈現加速流入日本股市的趨勢，數據和分析師預測，未來幾個月外國流入可能出現 “爆炸性增長”。</p>
<p>早在 2025 年，外國對日本股票的淨購買量已達到自 2013 年以來的最高水平，這一趨勢持續到 2026 年初。</p>
<p>在高市於 2 月 8 日獲得壓倒性勝利後，外國對日本股票的熱情加劇。2 月 9 日，東京證券交易所的淨外資流入在一天內超過 1 萬億日元，創下過去六個月的新日高。</p>
<p>野村證券首席股票策略師北岡智和表示，如果市場預期高市政府在適度財政擴張的前提下實施增長戰略，未來三個月的淨外資流入可能高達 10 萬億日元（約合 641 億美元）。這一規模是 2025 年平均每月外資流入的五倍，甚至可能超過安倍時代的水平。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，外資已成為日本股市的主導力量。倫敦證券交易所集團（LSEG）數據顯示，外資佔東京證券交易所交易量的 65%。這意味着日本股市的短期表現將對外資流動高度敏感；如果外資流入停止或轉為流出，可能會引發短期市場調整。</p>
<h2>日元貶值對日本股市的影響是什麼？</h2>
<p>儘管日本股市正在飆升，日元卻持續貶值。日元貶值是一把 “雙刃劍”——它可以提升出口導向型公司的利潤，但也帶來進口成本上升和資產減值等風險。</p>
<p>日元貶值顯著提升了以出口為導向公司的利潤。日本是一個以出口為導向的經濟體，許多上市公司如豐田、本田和東京電子的海外收入佔比非常高。日元對美元貶值 1%，TOPIX 成分公司的平均利潤將增加 0.7%。</p>
<p>此外，日元貶值增強了日本產品在全球市場的價格競爭力，幫助公司擴大海外市場份額，進一步提高盈利能力。</p>
<p>然而，過度的日元貶值帶來了多重風險，主要是推高進口成本，擠壓以國內需求為導向公司的利潤。日本對能源和原材料的進口依賴度很高；日元的持續貶值顯著增加了企業的進口成本，尤其是非出口導向的小型和中型企業（SMEs），其利潤空間可能受到嚴重擠壓，可能影響整體市場的盈利能力。</p>
<h2>2026 年日本股市的預測？是否會繼續創下新高？</h2>
<p>根據當前市場環境、政策預期和資本趨勢，預計日本股市在 2026 年將保持上升勢頭，有可能挑戰 60,000 點大關。然而，投資者應保持警惕，注意潛在風險；短期內可能隨時出現調整，整體走勢可能呈現 “波動上行” 的格局。</p>
<p>摩根大通對 2026 年日本股市持樂觀態度，表示只要美元/日元匯率不突破 165，10 年期日本國債收益率保持在 3% 以下，股市的上升趨勢不太可能改變。該行預測在基準情景下，日經指數將在年末達到 57,000 點，在樂觀情景下可能超過 60,000 點。同時，警告稱過度的日元貶值和快速上升的利率是兩個關鍵風險；如果這些 “臨界點” 被突破，股市可能面臨約 10% 的調整。</p>
<p>高盛指出，企業基本面的改善是日本股市持續上漲的核心支撐；51% 的公司超出盈利預期，預計日本企業的盈利能力將在 2026 年繼續上升。該公司預測日經指數將在年末達到 58,500 點，並建議投資者關注海外收入佔比較高和分紅能力強的公司。同時也警告稱，高估值和財政政策的不確定性可能引發短期市場波動。</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

南方日經225

1329

華夏野村日經225ETF

華安日經225ETF

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>東京股市正在經歷一波上漲，日經 225 指數在高市早苗在眾議院選舉中取得壓倒性勝利後，目標鎖定 60,000 點。這一反彈受到政治穩定、擴張性財政政策預期以及企業基本面改善的推動。高市早苗的經濟戰略建立在 “安倍經濟學” 基礎上，包括對戰略性行業的大規模投資和刺激消費的方案。國際資本正越來越多地流入日本，淨外資購買達到創紀錄水平，顯示出投資者對日本市場未來的強烈信心</p>

<p>TradingKey - February 2026, the Tokyo stock market has once again become the eye of the storm in global financial markets. Following Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) securing a landslide victory in the House of Representatives election, the Nikkei 225 index has hit consecutive record highs in just a few days, targeting the 60,000-point milestone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 2026 年 2 月，東京股市再次成為全球金融市場的風口浪尖。在高市早苗領導的自由民主黨（LDP）在眾議院選舉中獲得壓倒性勝利後，日經 225 指數在短短几天內接連創下歷史新高，目標直指 6 萬點里程碑。</p>
</div><p>Will the Nikkei index sustain its rally in 2026? Why is global capital betting so aggressively on Sanae Takaichi following her landslide victory? What opportunities and risks are hidden behind the surge in the Japanese stock market?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日經指數在 2026 年能否持續上漲？全球資本為何在高市早苗壓倒性勝利後如此激進地下注？日本股市暴漲背後隱藏着哪些機遇與風險？</p>
</div><h2>What is driving the accelerated rise in the Japanese stock market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本股市加速上漲的驅動因素是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>The recent sharp rise in the Japanese stock market is not a random short-term movement, but rather the result of a confluence of multiple positive factors: political clarity, expectations of expansionary fiscal policy, increased prosperity in relevant global industries, and improved corporate fundamentals. It is a &#34;consensus rally&#34; driven by both policy and fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本股市近期的急劇上漲並非隨機的短期波動，而是多重積極因素匯聚的結果：政治清晰、擴張性財政政策的預期、相關全球行業的繁榮以及企業基本面的改善。這是一場由政策和基本面共同驅動的 “共識性反彈”。</p>
</div><p>On February 8, 2026, Japan held its House of Representatives election, where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Sanae Takaichi, and its ruling coalition secured a landslide victory. The LDP alone won 316 seats, setting a record for the party since its founding in 1955.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 2 月 8 日，日本舉行了眾議院選舉，由高市早苗領導的自由民主黨（LDP）及其執政聯盟獲得壓倒性勝利。LDP 單獨贏得 316 個席位，創下自 1955 年成立以來的紀錄。</p>
</div><p>The market generally believes that a stable political situation will clear the way for the smooth implementation of economic policies, significantly boosting investor confidence and serving as the direct trigger for the stock market surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場普遍認為，穩定的政治局勢將為經濟政策的順利實施鋪平道路，顯著提升投資者信心，併成為股市暴漲的直接觸發因素。</p>
</div><p>Sanae Takaichi’s economic policies, dubbed &#34;Sanaenomics,&#34; inherit and evolve from &#34;Abenomics,&#34; with the core objective of boosting economic recovery through expansionary fiscal spending and loose monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高市早苗的經濟政策被稱為 “Sanaenomics”，繼承並發展自 “Abenomics”，其核心目標是通過擴張性財政支出和寬鬆貨幣政策促進經濟復甦。</p>
</div><p>Reportedly, the Takaichi cabinet plans to invest 6.4 trillion yen to support strategic industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and defense, while also pushing for a two-year suspension of the food consumption tax; meanwhile, the Japanese government has launched an economic stimulus package totaling over 21 trillion yen designed to boost consumption and support industrial upgrading. It is reported that the Takaichi cabinet plans to invest 6.4 trillion yen to support strategic industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and defense, while pushing for a two-year suspension of the food consumption tax; concurrently, the Japanese government has introduced an economic stimulus package exceeding 21 trillion yen to revitalize consumption and support industrial upgrading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據報道，高市內閣計劃投資 6.4 萬億日元以支持半導體、人工智能（AI）和國防等戰略產業，同時推動暫停兩年的食品消費税；與此同時，日本政府推出了總額超過 21 萬億日元的經濟刺激計劃，旨在刺激消費並支持產業升級。</p>
</div><p>Regarding monetary policy, although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has modestly raised interest rates to 0.75%, it remains among the most accommodative globally and continues to provide &#34;floor&#34; liquidity support to the market by purchasing ETFs (with holdings of approximately 83 trillion yen).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在貨幣政策方面，儘管日本銀行（BoJ）已將利率小幅提高至 0.75%，但仍然是全球最寬鬆的貨幣政策之一，並通過購買 ETF（持有約 83 萬億日元）繼續為市場提供 “底線” 流動性支持。</p>
</div><h2>Why is Sanae Takaichi’s election victory favorable for the Japanese stock market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高市早苗的選舉勝利為何對日本股市有利？</h2>
</div><p>The reason global capital is betting heavily on Sanae Takaichi is fundamentally that her election victory has strengthened market expectations for &#34;policy-driven economic recovery,&#34; and her policy positions align closely with stock market interests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球資本重注高市早苗的根本原因在於，她的選舉勝利增強了市場對 “政策驅動經濟復甦” 的預期，而她的政策立場與股市利益緊密契合。</p>
</div><p>As a Shinzo Abe loyalist, Takaichi adheres to the core logic of &#34;Abenomics,&#34; focusing on stimulating economic growth and corporate earnings through &#34;loose fiscal + loose monetary&#34; policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為安倍晉三的忠實支持者，高市早苗堅持 “Abenomics” 的核心邏輯，專注於通過 “寬鬆財政 + 寬鬆貨幣” 政策刺激經濟增長和企業盈利。</p>
</div><p>During the election campaign, Sanae Takaichi repeatedly emphasized the need to advance corporate governance reforms, encouraging companies to increase dividends and stock buybacks to improve Return on Equity (ROE). The market expects that Takaichi’s stable government will further advance these reforms, helping to enhance the valuation levels of the Japanese stock market and attract more long-term capital inflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在選舉期間，高市早苗多次強調推進公司治理改革的必要性，鼓勵企業增加股息和股票回購，以提高股本回報率（ROE）。市場預期高市的穩定政府將進一步推進這些改革，幫助提升日本股市的估值水平，吸引更多長期資本流入。</p>
</div><h2>Is international capital accelerating its flow into Japan?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>國際資本是否加速流入日本？</h2>
</div><p>Against the backdrop of Takaichi’s election victory and the sustained rally in the stock market, international capital has shown a clear trend of accelerating into the Japanese stock market, with data and analyst forecasts suggesting that foreign inflows could see &#34;explosive growth&#34; in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高市的選舉勝利和股市持續上漲的背景下，國際資本明顯呈現加速流入日本股市的趨勢，數據和分析師預測，未來幾個月外國流入可能出現 “爆炸性增長”。</p>
</div><p>As early as 2025, net foreign purchases of Japanese stocks reached their highest level since 2013, a trend that has continued into early 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早在 2025 年，外國對日本股票的淨購買量已達到自 2013 年以來的最高水平，這一趨勢持續到 2026 年初。</p>
</div><p>Following Takaichi’s landslide victory on February 8, foreign enthusiasm for Japanese stocks intensified. On February 9, net foreign inflows to the Tokyo Stock Exchange exceeded 1 trillion yen in a single day, setting a new daily high for the past six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高市於 2 月 8 日獲得壓倒性勝利後，外國對日本股票的熱情加劇。2 月 9 日，東京證券交易所的淨外資流入在一天內超過 1 萬億日元，創下過去六個月的新日高。</p>
</div><p>Tomokazu Kitaoka, Chief Equity Strategist at Nomura Securities, stated that if the market expects the Takaichi government to implement a growth strategy under the premise of moderate fiscal expansion, net foreign inflows could reach as high as 10 trillion yen (approximately $64.1 billion) over the next three months. This volume is five times the average monthly foreign inflow in 2025 and could even surpass the levels seen during the Abe era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村證券首席股票策略師北岡智和表示，如果市場預期高市政府在適度財政擴張的前提下實施增長戰略，未來三個月的淨外資流入可能高達 10 萬億日元（約合 641 億美元）。這一規模是 2025 年平均每月外資流入的五倍，甚至可能超過安倍時代的水平。</p>
</div><p>It is worth noting that foreign capital has become the dominant force in the Japanese stock market. London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data shows that foreign capital accounts for 65% of the trading volume on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This means that the short-term performance of the Japanese stock market will be highly sensitive to foreign capital flows; should foreign inflows stop or turn into outflows, a short-term market correction could be triggered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，外資已成為日本股市的主導力量。倫敦證券交易所集團（LSEG）數據顯示，外資佔東京證券交易所交易量的 65%。這意味着日本股市的短期表現將對外資流動高度敏感；如果外資流入停止或轉為流出，可能會引發短期市場調整。</p>
</div><h2>What impact does yen depreciation have on the Japanese stock market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日元貶值對日本股市的影響是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>While the Japanese stock market is surging, the yen continues to depreciate. Yen depreciation is a &#34;double-edged sword&#34;—it can boost the profits of export-oriented companies, but it also brings risks such as rising import costs and asset impairments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管日本股市正在飆升，日元卻持續貶值。日元貶值是一把 “雙刃劍”——它可以提升出口導向型公司的利潤，但也帶來進口成本上升和資產減值等風險。</p>
</div><p>Yen depreciation significantly boosts the profits of export-oriented companies. Japan is an export-oriented economy, and many listed companies such as Toyota, Honda, and Tokyo Electron have a very high proportion of overseas revenue. For every 1% depreciation of the yen against the dollar, the average profit of TOPIX component companies increases by 0.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元貶值顯著提升了以出口為導向公司的利潤。日本是一個以出口為導向的經濟體，許多上市公司如豐田、本田和東京電子的海外收入佔比非常高。日元對美元貶值 1%，TOPIX 成分公司的平均利潤將增加 0.7%。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, a weaker yen enhances the price competitiveness of Japanese products in global markets, helping companies expand their overseas market share and further improve profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，日元貶值增強了日本產品在全球市場的價格競爭力，幫助公司擴大海外市場份額，進一步提高盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>However, excessive yen depreciation brings multiple risks, primarily driving up import costs and squeezing the profits of domestic demand-oriented companies. Japan is highly dependent on imports of energy and raw materials; the continuous depreciation of the yen has significantly increased import costs for businesses, especially non-export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), whose profit margins may be severely squeezed, potentially impacting overall market profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，過度的日元貶值帶來了多重風險，主要是推高進口成本，擠壓以國內需求為導向公司的利潤。日本對能源和原材料的進口依賴度很高；日元的持續貶值顯著增加了企業的進口成本，尤其是非出口導向的小型和中型企業（SMEs），其利潤空間可能受到嚴重擠壓，可能影響整體市場的盈利能力。</p>
</div><h2>Forecast for the Japanese stock market in 2026? Will it continue to reach new highs?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年日本股市的預測？是否會繼續創下新高？</h2>
</div><p>Based on the current market environment, policy expectations, and capital trends, the Japanese stock market is expected to maintain its upward momentum in 2026, with the possibility of challenging the 60,000-point mark. However, investors should remain alert to hidden risks; short-term corrections could occur at any time, and the overall pattern will likely be one of &#34;volatile upward movement.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據當前市場環境、政策預期和資本趨勢，預計日本股市在 2026 年將保持上升勢頭，有可能挑戰 60,000 點大關。然而，投資者應保持警惕，注意潛在風險；短期內可能隨時出現調整，整體走勢可能呈現 “波動上行” 的格局。</p>
</div><p>J.P. Morgan expressed a bullish outlook on the Japanese stock market for 2026, stating that as long as the USD/JPY exchange rate does not break above 165 and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield stays below 3%, the upward trend in the stock market is unlikely to change. The bank predicts that in a base-case scenario, the Nikkei index will reach 57,000 points by year-end, potentially exceeding 60,000 points in a bullish scenario. Meanwhile, it warned that excessive yen depreciation and rapidly rising interest rates are two key risks to watch; if these &#34;critical points&#34; are breached, the stock market could face a correction of approximately 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通對 2026 年日本股市持樂觀態度，表示只要美元/日元匯率不突破 165，10 年期日本國債收益率保持在 3% 以下，股市的上升趨勢不太可能改變。該行預測在基準情景下，日經指數將在年末達到 57,000 點，在樂觀情景下可能超過 60,000 點。同時，警告稱過度的日元貶值和快速上升的利率是兩個關鍵風險；如果這些 “臨界點” 被突破，股市可能面臨約 10% 的調整。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs pointed out that improvements in corporate fundamentals are the core support for the sustained rise of the Japanese stock market; with 51% of companies beating earnings expectations, the profitability of Japanese firms will continue to rise in 2026. The firm predicts the Nikkei index will reach 58,500 points by year-end and advises investors to focus on companies with high proportions of overseas revenue and strong dividend capacities. It also cautioned that high valuations and fiscal policy uncertainty could trigger short-term market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛指出，企業基本面的改善是日本股市持續上漲的核心支撐；51% 的公司超出盈利預期，預計日本企業的盈利能力將在 2026 年繼續上升。該公司預測日經指數將在年末達到 58,500 點，並建議投資者關注海外收入佔比較高和分紅能力強的公司。同時也警告稱，高估值和財政政策的不確定性可能引發短期市場波動。</p>
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日經指數是否會達到 60,000 點？全球資本為何押注高市早苗？日本股市在 2026 年是否會繼續創下新高？