<p>比特幣 [BTC] 在超過一週的時間裏一直在 $65K 以上盤整，此前在過去三個月中從 $126K 下跌了 46% 至 $60K。儘管市場情緒疲軟，但整體賣壓已顯著減輕。</p>
<p>根據 VanEck 分析師的説法，由數字資產研究負責人 Mathew Siggel 領導，持有 BTC 1-2 年的人在 2025 年底和 2026 年初是最大的賣家。然而，由於大多數人（以平均價格 $72K 買入）現在處於虧損狀態，這一羣體的拋售已減少。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“在過去一個月中，持有超過 1 年的老股東的賣出量顯著下降，預計 2 月的總賣出量為 517k BTC。在 1 年至 2 年的區間內，代幣銷售下降最為明顯，降至 190k 的速度。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-115326.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-115326.png"/></p>
<p>來源：VanEck</p>
<p>Sigel 認為比特幣的分配正在 ‘放緩’，但警告投資者可能仍會遭受痛苦的損失。</p>
<p>到目前為止，已實現的損失已超過 220 億美元，突顯出資本外逃加劇以及缺乏長期持有 BTC 的信心。</p>
<h2><strong>市場謹慎依舊</strong></h2>
<p>也就是説，價格下跌對礦工收入產生了不利影響，可能加劇了礦工危機和不具競爭力的參與者退出。這一點通過比特幣網絡的哈希率（挖掘 BTC 所需的計算能力）下降得以體現。</p>
<p>根據 VanEck 的數據，網絡的哈希率在過去 90 天內下降了 14%。然而，分析師補充道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“持續的 90 天哈希率下降相對不常見。這些哈希率收縮的時期在歷史上通常會在隨後的 90 天內帶來強勁的比特幣回報。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-130030.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-130030.png"/></p>
<p>來源：VanEck</p>
<p>如果得到驗證，這可能是市場的短期緩解。而對加密市場結構法案 CLARITY Act 通過的預期上升，可能進一步幫助穩定比特幣價格。</p>
<p>即便如此，市場仍然存在較大的下行風險頭寸。根據 Glassnode 數據，期權流動和偏斜嚴重傾向於對沖下行風險。值得注意的是，賣權偏斜保持在高位（對賣權的需求，熊市押注）相對高於買權（牛市押注）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Puts.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Puts.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>換句話説，儘管 CLARITY Act 通過的可能性有所改善，投資者仍不希望被再次下跌所驚訝。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最終總結</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>VanEck 表示，比特幣的主要賣家（持有 1-2 年的人）在 BTC 跌破 $72K 後顯著減少了拋售。</em></li>
<li><em>這家資產管理公司預測 BTC 可能在第二季度復甦，引用了哈希率收縮的歷史模式。</em></li>
</ul>

RIOT

<p>比特幣在經歷了從 126,000 美元跌至 60,000 美元的重大下跌後，已穩定在 65,000 美元以上。賣壓有所減輕，尤其是那些以平均 72,000 美元價格購買比特幣的持有者。儘管賣出減少，但實現的損失已達到 220 億美元。比特幣網絡的哈希率在過去 90 天內下降了 14%，但這種收縮在歷史上通常預示着強勁的回報。市場仍然保持謹慎，投資者在對下行風險進行對沖，儘管由於潛在的監管改善，第二季度的復甦仍然令人期待</p>

<p>Bitcoin [BTC] has been consolidating above $65K for over a week, after dropping 46% from $126K to $60K over the past three months. Despite the weak sentiment, however, overall selling pressure has reduced significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣 [BTC] 在超過一週的時間裏一直在 $65K 以上盤整，此前在過去三個月中從 $126K 下跌了 46% 至 $60K。儘管市場情緒疲軟，但整體賣壓已顯著減輕。</p>
</div><p>According to VanEck analysts, led by head of digital assets research Mathew Siggel, those who’ve held BTC for 1-2 years were the largest sellers late 2025 and early 2026. However, this cohort has reduced the offloading since most of them (who bought at an average price of $72K) are now underwater.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 VanEck 分析師的説法，由數字資產研究負責人 Mathew Siggel 領導，持有 BTC 1-2 年的人在 2025 年底和 2026 年初是最大的賣家。然而，由於大多數人（以平均價格 $72K 買入）現在處於虧損狀態，這一羣體的拋售已減少。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Over the past month, selling from older cohorts, &gt;1yr, has fallen significantly to an expected total of 517k BTC in February. In the 1yr-2yr band, token sales have dropped the most dramatically, falling to a pace of 190k.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“在過去一個月中，持有超過 1 年的老股東的賣出量顯著下降，預計 2 月的總賣出量為 517k BTC。在 1 年至 2 年的區間內，代幣銷售下降最為明顯，降至 190k 的速度。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-115326.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-115326.png"/></p>
<p>Source: VanEck</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：VanEck</p>
</div><p>Sigel concluded that Bitcoin distribution was ‘slowing,’ but warned that investors might still take painful losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sigel 認為比特幣的分配正在 ‘放緩’，但警告投資者可能仍會遭受痛苦的損失。</p>
</div><p>So far, realized losses have crossed $22 billion, underscoring rising capitulation and a lack of conviction to hold BTC for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，已實現的損失已超過 220 億美元，突顯出資本外逃加劇以及缺乏長期持有 BTC 的信心。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Market caution persists</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市場謹慎依舊</strong></h2>
</div><p>That said, the decline has adversely affected miner revenue and likely exacerbated the miner crisis and exit of uncompetitive players. This was illustrated by the drop in the Bitcoin network’s hash rate (the computational power required to mine BTC).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，價格下跌對礦工收入產生了不利影響，可能加劇了礦工危機和不具競爭力的參與者退出。這一點通過比特幣網絡的哈希率（挖掘 BTC 所需的計算能力）下降得以體現。</p>
</div><p>According to VanEck, the network’s hash rate has declined by 14% over the past 90 days. However, the analysts added,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 VanEck 的數據，網絡的哈希率在過去 90 天內下降了 14%。然而，分析師補充道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Sustained 90-day hash rate drawdowns are relatively uncommon. These periods of hash rate contraction have historically preceded strong forward BTC returns over the subsequent 90 days.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“持續的 90 天哈希率下降相對不常見。這些哈希率收縮的時期在歷史上通常會在隨後的 90 天內帶來強勁的比特幣回報。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-130030.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-130030.png"/></p>
<p>Source: VanEck</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：VanEck</p>
</div><p>This may be short-term relief for the market if validated. And the rising expectation of passage of the crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, could further help stabilize the Bitcoin price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果得到驗證，這可能是市場的短期緩解。而對加密市場結構法案 CLARITY Act 通過的預期上升，可能進一步幫助穩定比特幣價格。</p>
</div><p>Even so, there was heavy positioning for downside risk. According to Glassnode data, Options flows and skew heavily leaned towards hedging against downside risk. Notably, Put skew remained elevated (demand for puts, bearish bets) was relatively higher than calls (bullish bets).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，市場仍然存在較大的下行風險頭寸。根據 Glassnode 數據，期權流動和偏斜嚴重傾向於對沖下行風險。值得注意的是，賣權偏斜保持在高位（對賣權的需求，熊市押注）相對高於買權（牛市押注）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Puts.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Puts.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Put differently, investors didn’t want to be surprised by another leg down despite the potential recovery amid improving passage odds for the CLARITY Act.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，儘管 CLARITY Act 通過的可能性有所改善，投資者仍不希望被再次下跌所驚訝。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Summary</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最終總結</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>VanEck said that Bitcoin’s main sellers (1-2 year holders) have significantly reduced their dumping spree after BTC dropped below $72K.</em></li>
<li><em>The asset manager projected that BTC could recover in Q2, citing historical patterns of hash rate contraction.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>VanEck 表示，比特幣的主要賣家（持有 1-2 年的人）在 BTC 跌破 $72K 後顯著減少了拋售。</em></li>
<li><em>這家資產管理公司預測 BTC 可能在第二季度復甦，引用了哈希率收縮的歷史模式。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Bitcoin: Is ‘slowing’ distribution a relief after $22B in losses?

- 比特幣 recent price action shows consolidation above $65K amid reduced selling pressure.
- VanEck analysts noted significant drop in sales from long-term holders, projecting potential recovery.
- Market caution remains, driven by high downside risk positioning and miner revenue declines.

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比特幣：在損失 220 億美元后，“放緩” 的分配是否讓人感到寬慰？