<p>最近，Solana [SOL] 上的真實世界資產生態系統激增至歷史裏程碑，代幣化價值達到 16.6 億美元。</p>
<p>真實世界資產的穩步增長反映了資本向鏈上轉移以及機構對 Solana 結算基礎設施的參與增加。</p>
<p>AMBCrypto 還報道，Layer 1 區塊鏈是 dApp 收入的主要競爭者之一。結合現貨 ETF 的資金流入和高網絡活動，Solana 的基本面似乎依然強勁。</p>
<p>即使在風險規避的市場條件下，網絡的應用收入捕獲比率也從 262% 躍升至 375%。不斷增加的真實世界資產基礎和鯨魚的積累仍不足以阻止 SOL 的下跌趨勢。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-1-week-Chart-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1609" height="993" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-1-week-Chart-2.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView 上的 SOL/USDT</p>
<p>長期下降通道仍未被打破。周線圖顯示，進一步的損失是很可能的。</p>
<p>在$140 的價格區間內存在較大的不平衡，這可能在測試$47.9 的支撐位之前被填補。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SOL-Monthly-Chart-scaled.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SOL-Monthly-Chart-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：X 上的 Ali Charts</p>
<p>趨勢過於看跌，短期內難以克服。加密分析師 Ali Martinez 在 X 上發佈了 SOL 的月線圖。在圖中，月度 SuperTrend 指標已轉為 “賣出” 信號。</p>
<p>上一次發生這種情況是在 2022 年，此後 SOL 價格下跌了 95%。</p>
<h2>積累力度不足以抵擋 SOL 的空頭</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-HODLer-Net-Position-Change-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-HODLer-Net-Position-Change-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>Hodler 淨頭寸變化在 1 月份轉為正值。這意味着長期 SOL 持有者的月度頭寸變化在增加，顯示出積累的跡象。</p>
<p>然而，這一指標在過去三週內有所放緩。</p>
<p>放緩發生在 SOL 跌破$100 水平時。這反映出長期持有者的信心較 1 月上半月有所減弱。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-Percent-Addresses-in-Profit-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-Percent-Addresses-in-Profit-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>未來可能會有更多痛苦，持有者的憂慮可能是合理的。盈利地址的百分比處於自 2023 年 11 月以來的低點，2 月份徘徊在 20% 左右。</p>
<p>在之前的熊市週期中，盈利地址的百分比在 2022 年 12 月 28 日降至 1.37%。</p>
<p>歷史不必完全重演，但長期投資者可以再等幾個月再購買 SOL。市場整體情緒依然看跌，現在判斷底部為時尚早。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最終總結</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>Solana 的基本面依然強勁，機構對網絡的信心沒有減弱。</em></li>
<li><em>市場的週期性特徵使 SOL 深陷熊市，未來可能會有更多的回調。</em></li>
</ul>

GSOL

2 倍做多加密貨幣行業 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 Riot ETF - Defiance

2 倍做多 COIN ETF - GraniteShares

區塊鏈 ETF - Amplify

GLXY

BSOL

COIN

<p>索拉納會再跌 95% 嗎？為什麼 SOL 的底部看起來還很遙遠</p>

<p>The real-world asset ecosystem on Solana [SOL] surged to a historic milestone of $1.66 billion in tokenized value recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，Solana [SOL] 上的真實世界資產生態系統激增至歷史裏程碑，代幣化價值達到 16.6 億美元。</p>
</div><p>The steady growth in RWA reflected capital moving on-chain and increased institutional participation in Solana’s settlement infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>真實世界資產的穩步增長反映了資本向鏈上轉移以及機構對 Solana 結算基礎設施的參與增加。</p>
</div><p>AMBCrypto also reported that the Layer 1 blockchain was one of the leading competitors in dApp revenue. Combined with spot ETF inflows and high network activity, it seemed that the Solana fundamentals were strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMBCrypto 還報道，Layer 1 區塊鏈是 dApp 收入的主要競爭者之一。結合現貨 ETF 的資金流入和高網絡活動，Solana 的基本面似乎依然強勁。</p>
</div><p>Even in risk-off market conditions, the network saw a leap in app revenue capture ratio from 262% to 375%. An increasing RWA base and whale accumulation have not been enough to halt SOL’s downward march.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在風險規避的市場條件下，網絡的應用收入捕獲比率也從 262% 躍升至 375%。不斷增加的真實世界資產基礎和鯨魚的積累仍不足以阻止 SOL 的下跌趨勢。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-1-week-Chart-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-1-week-Chart-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: SOL/USDT on TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView 上的 SOL/USDT</p>
</div><p>The long-term descending channel remained unbroken. The weekly chart showed why further losses were likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>長期下降通道仍未被打破。周線圖顯示，進一步的損失是很可能的。</p>
</div><p>There were sizeable imbalances up to $140, which could be filled before the $47.9 southward extension level is tested as support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在$140 的價格區間內存在較大的不平衡，這可能在測試$47.9 的支撐位之前被填補。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SOL-Monthly-Chart-scaled.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SOL-Monthly-Chart-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Ali Charts on X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X 上的 Ali Charts</p>
</div><p>The trend was too strongly bearish to be overcome anytime soon. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez posted the monthly chart of SOL on X. On it, the monthly SuperTrend indicator had flipped to a “sell” signal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>趨勢過於看跌，短期內難以克服。加密分析師 Ali Martinez 在 X 上發佈了 SOL 的月線圖。在圖中，月度 SuperTrend 指標已轉為 “賣出” 信號。</p>
</div><p>The last time this happened was in 2022, and SOL faced a 95% price drop afterward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一次發生這種情況是在 2022 年，此後 SOL 價格下跌了 95%。</p>
</div><h2>Accumulation is too weak to stave off SOL bears</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>積累力度不足以抵擋 SOL 的空頭</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-HODLer-Net-Position-Change-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-HODLer-Net-Position-Change-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>The Hodler net position change turned green in January. This meant that the monthly position change of long-term SOL holders had been increasing, a sign of accumulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hodler 淨頭寸變化在 1 月份轉為正值。這意味着長期 SOL 持有者的月度頭寸變化在增加，顯示出積累的跡象。</p>
</div><p>However, the metric has slowed down over the past three weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這一指標在過去三週內有所放緩。</p>
</div><p>The slowdown came alongside a SOL slide below the $100 level. It reflected weakened long-term conviction from long-term holders compared to the first half of January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>放緩發生在 SOL 跌破$100 水平時。這反映出長期持有者的信心較 1 月上半月有所減弱。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-Percent-Addresses-in-Profit-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-Percent-Addresses-in-Profit-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>There could be more pain ahead, and the trepidation from holders might be justified. The percent of addresses in profit was at lows not seen since November 2023, hovering around 20% in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未來可能會有更多痛苦，持有者的憂慮可能是合理的。盈利地址的百分比處於自 2023 年 11 月以來的低點，2 月份徘徊在 20% 左右。</p>
</div><p>During the previous bear cycle, the percent of addresses in profit had dropped to 1.37% on the 28th of December, 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在之前的熊市週期中，盈利地址的百分比在 2022 年 12 月 28 日降至 1.37%。</p>
</div><p>History need not repeat exactly, but long-term investors can wait a few more months before buying SOL. The market-wide sentiment remained bearish, and it was too early to call the bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史不必完全重演，但長期投資者可以再等幾個月再購買 SOL。市場整體情緒依然看跌，現在判斷底部為時尚早。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Summary</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最終總結</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>The Solana fundamentals remained strong, and institutional confidence in the network has not flagged.</em></li>
<li><em>The cyclical nature of the market has thrown SOL deep into a bear market, and there could be more drawdown ahead later this year.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>Solana 的基本面依然強勁，機構對網絡的信心沒有減弱。</em></li>
<li><em>市場的週期性特徵使 SOL 深陷熊市，未來可能會有更多的回調。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Will Solana fall another 95%? Why SOL’s bottom looks far away

- Solana 上的真實世界資產生態系統達到 16.6 億美元的代幣化價值。  
- 儘管基本面強勁，SOL 在下行趨勢中持續下滑，長期持有者信心減弱。  
- 市場情緒依舊看跌，預計未來會有更多回調。

Solana 會再下跌 95% 嗎？為什麼 SOL 的底部似乎還很遙遠