<p>（對其他訂閲者重複，無任何更改。此處表達的觀點為作者的個人觀點，他是路透社的專欄作家。）</p>
<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>倫敦，2 月 25 日（路透社）——中國在關鍵礦產供應鏈中的主導地位並不像表面上看起來的那樣絕對。</p>
<p>鈷就是一個例子。</p>
<p>根據國際能源署的數據，中國在 2024 年佔全球電池金屬精煉產量的 78%。但它缺乏顯著的國內礦業能力，因此高度依賴原材料的進口。</p>
<p>這種脆弱性已被剛果民主共和國施加的出口管制暴露出來，剛果是中國加工商鈷中間產品的最大來源。</p>
<p>剛果在去年 2 月暫停了鈷的出口，並在 10 月引入了配額制度。</p>
<p>去年第四季度，發往中國的貨物幾乎停滯不前，隨着對單位的爭奪，當地價格現在飆升。</p>
<p>隨着美國試圖削弱中國對該國礦產財富的控制，爭奪剛果鈷的競爭只會加劇。</p>
<h3>出口管制</h3>
<p>剛果為 2025 年第四季度設定了 18,125 公噸的出口配額，併為今年設定了 96,600 公噸的配額，其中包括 10% 的戰略分配。</p>
<p>新方案實施的延遲導致去年最後三個月的出口貨物完全停滯。</p>
<p>根據諮詢公司 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence（BMI）的説法，第一輛運載鈷的卡車在 1 月才離開該國。</p>
<p>運營商將被允許將其 2025 年第四季度的配額轉入今年，但由於出口貨物通常需要三個月才能到達中國，該國面臨着嚴重的供應緊張期。</p>
<h3>瓶頸</h3>
<p>由於剛果的出口管制，CME（OBCc1）上交易的精煉鈷價格已從 2025 年初的每磅 10 美元飆升至 25 美元。</p>
<p>但這只是故事的一部分。</p>
<p>像剛果氫氧化物這樣的中間產品是根據鈷含量定價的。這種 “可支付” 在 2 月份的交易價格約為金屬價格的 55%。現在它的報價常常達到前所未有的 100%。</p>
<p>中間產品的緊縮迫使買家轉向中國的無錫不鏽鋼交易所，該交易所是中國最主要的鈷交易場所。</p>
<p>截至 1 月底，超過 3,250 噸鈷金屬，或交易所庫存的 37%，已從無錫註冊倉庫中提取。</p>
<p>中國的問題在於，除了剛果之外幾乎沒有其他替代供應商。</p>
<p>主要的替代供應商是印度尼西亞，鈷是鎳的副產品。但即使考慮到今年印度尼西亞的產量增加，BMI 認為也不足以填補剛果限制出口流量所留下的缺口。</p>
<h3>競爭</h3>
<p>到目前為止，中國一直是剛果的主導運營商，為其國內冶煉廠和精煉廠採購銅和鈷原材料。</p>
<p>這種情況正在改變。</p>
<p>剛果的鈷出口管制是其礦業部門更大重組的一部分，該國希望從其自然資源財富中獲得更多收益。</p>
<p>美國已幫助調解金夏沙與盧旺達之間的和平協議，以停止席捲剛果東部地區的衝突。</p>
<p>該協議使該國向美國投資開放。美國國際開發金融公司在 12 月宣佈計劃在一個新的合資企業中持有股份，以營銷政府的銅和鈷份額。美國買家將享有優先購買權。</p>
<p>美國在中非政策的核心是剛果與安哥拉洛比託港之間的新鐵路連接，這是一個與中國支持的通往坦桑尼亞達累斯薩拉姆的鐵路相抗衡的戰略走廊。</p>
<p>中國的鈷買家面臨的不僅是來自剛果的進口減少，還有對正在開採的資源的競爭加劇。</p>
<h3>阿基里斯之踵</h3>
<p>在控制全球鈷鏈方面，採礦是中國的阿基里斯之踵。</p>
<p>許多其他關鍵礦產也是如此，包括稀土。</p>
<p>儘管中國是全球最大的稀土礦產國，但並非完全自給自足，仍依賴從鄰國緬甸進口重稀土如鋱和鏑。</p>
<p>隨着中國對原材料需求的增長，它將變得更加依賴第三方提供採礦輸入。</p>
<p>這種依賴將變得越來越棘手，正如中國的鈷買家所發現的那樣。（安迪·霍姆是路透社的專欄作家。此處表達的觀點為他的個人觀點。）喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省、數據驅動的評論。請在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。並在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社應用上收聽每日播客 Morning Bid。訂閲以收聽路透社記者討論市場和金融的重大新聞，每週七天。</p>
<p>中國從剛果進口的鈷中間產品急劇下降</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3MpeL0M?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1298" height="652" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3MpeL0M"/></p>
<p>從無錫交易所倉庫中提取的鈷</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8iQ8r?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2524" height="1150" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8iQ8r"/></p>
<p>（編輯：瑪格麗塔·蔡）</p>
<p>)</p>

華友鈷業

洛陽鉬業

<p>中國在關鍵礦產供應鏈，特別是鈷方面的主導地位正受到審視，因為其依賴進口。剛果民主共和國的出口管制對中國的鈷供應產生了重大影響，導致價格飆升和資源競爭。剛果的新配額制度已暫停出口，造成供應緊張。美國正在加大對剛果礦產部門的參與，旨在減少中國對這些資源的控制。中國對礦業的依賴給其鈷供應鏈帶來了挑戰，突顯了其關鍵礦產戰略中的脆弱性</p>

<p>(Repeats to additional subscribers without any changes. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（對其他訂閲者重複，無任何更改。此處表達的觀點為作者的個人觀點，他是路透社的專欄作家。）</p>
</div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - China’s dominance of critical mineral supply chains is not as absolute as it may appear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，2 月 25 日（路透社）——中國在關鍵礦產供應鏈中的主導地位並不像表面上看起來的那樣絕對。</p>
</div><p>Cobalt is a case in point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鈷就是一個例子。</p>
</div><p>China accounted for 78% of global refined output of the battery metal in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. But it lacks significant domestic mining capacity, leaving it highly dependent on imports of raw materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據國際能源署的數據，中國在 2024 年佔全球電池金屬精煉產量的 78%。但它缺乏顯著的國內礦業能力，因此高度依賴原材料的進口。</p>
</div><p>That vulnerability has been exposed by the export controls imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, the largest source of cobalt intermediate products for Chinese processors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種脆弱性已被剛果民主共和國施加的出口管制暴露出來，剛果是中國加工商鈷中間產品的最大來源。</p>
</div><p>Congo suspended cobalt exports in February last year and introduced a quota system in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剛果在去年 2 月暫停了鈷的出口，並在 10 月引入了配額制度。</p>
</div><p>Shipments to China then ground to a near standstill over the fourth quarter of last year, with local prices now surging amid a scramble for units.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年第四季度，發往中國的貨物幾乎停滯不前，隨着對單位的爭奪，當地價格現在飆升。</p>
</div><p>Competition for Congolese cobalt is only going to heat up as the U.S. tries to loosen China’s grip on the country’s mineral riches.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着美國試圖削弱中國對該國礦產財富的控制，爭奪剛果鈷的競爭只會加劇。</p>
</div><h3>EXPORT CONTROLS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>出口管制</h3>
</div><p>Congo set export quotas at 18,125 metric tons for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 96,600 tons, including a 10% strategic allocation, for this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剛果為 2025 年第四季度設定了 18,125 公噸的出口配額，併為今年設定了 96,600 公噸的配額，其中包括 10% 的戰略分配。</p>
</div><p>Delays in implementing the new scheme caused export shipments to grind to a complete halt in the final three months of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新方案實施的延遲導致去年最後三個月的出口貨物完全停滯。</p>
</div><p>The first truck carrying cobalt only left the country in January, according to consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), writing for The Cobalt Institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據諮詢公司 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence（BMI）的説法，第一輛運載鈷的卡車在 1 月才離開該國。</p>
</div><p>Operators will be allowed to roll their Q4 2025 quotas into this year but with export shipments typically taking three months to make it to China, the country is facing a period of acute supply tightness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>運營商將被允許將其 2025 年第四季度的配額轉入今年，但由於出口貨物通常需要三個月才能到達中國，該國面臨着嚴重的供應緊張期。</p>
</div><h3>PINCH POINT</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>瓶頸</h3>
</div><p>The price of refined cobalt traded on the CME (OBCc1) has surged from $10 per lb in early 2025 to $25 thanks to Congo’s export controls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於剛果的出口管制，CME（OBCc1）上交易的精煉鈷價格已從 2025 年初的每磅 10 美元飆升至 25 美元。</p>
</div><p>But that is only part of the story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這只是故事的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Intermediate products such as Congolese hydroxide are priced on the basis of the cobalt content. This “payable” was trading at around 55% of the metal price in February. It is now regularly quoted at an unprecedented 100%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像剛果氫氧化物這樣的中間產品是根據鈷含量定價的。這種 “可支付” 在 2 月份的交易價格約為金屬價格的 55%。現在它的報價常常達到前所未有的 100%。</p>
</div><p>The squeeze on intermediate products has forced buyers to turn to cobalt metal stocks held by China’s Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange, the country’s foremost cobalt trading venue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中間產品的緊縮迫使買家轉向中國的無錫不鏽鋼交易所，該交易所是中國最主要的鈷交易場所。</p>
</div><p>More than 3,250 tons of cobalt metal, or 37% of exchange stocks, were taken out of Wuxi registered warehouses at the end of January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 1 月底，超過 3,250 噸鈷金屬，或交易所庫存的 37%，已從無錫註冊倉庫中提取。</p>
</div><p>China’s problem is that there are few alternative suppliers to the Congo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的問題在於，除了剛果之外幾乎沒有其他替代供應商。</p>
</div><p>The main one is Indonesia, where cobalt is mined as a by-product of nickel. But even allowing for increased Indonesian production this year, it won’t be enough to fill the gap left by Congo’s restricted export flows, according to BMI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要的替代供應商是印度尼西亞，鈷是鎳的副產品。但即使考慮到今年印度尼西亞的產量增加，BMI 認為也不足以填補剛果限制出口流量所留下的缺口。</p>
</div><h3>COMPETITION</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>競爭</h3>
</div><p>China has until now been the dominant operator in Congo, sourcing both copper and cobalt raw materials for its domestic smelters and refineries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，中國一直是剛果的主導運營商，為其國內冶煉廠和精煉廠採購銅和鈷原材料。</p>
</div><p>That’s changing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種情況正在改變。</p>
</div><p>Congo’s cobalt export controls are part of a bigger restructuring of its mineral sector as the country seeks to earn more from its natural resources wealth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剛果的鈷出口管制是其礦業部門更大重組的一部分，該國希望從其自然資源財富中獲得更多收益。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. has helped mediate a peace deal between Kinshasa and Rwanda to stop the fighting that has engulfed Congo’s eastern regions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國已幫助調解金夏沙與盧旺達之間的和平協議，以停止席捲剛果東部地區的衝突。</p>
</div><p>The deal has opened the country up to U.S. investment. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced in December plans to take a stake in a new joint venture to market the government’s share of copper and cobalt. U.S. buyers will have the right of first refusal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該協議使該國向美國投資開放。美國國際開發金融公司在 12 月宣佈計劃在一個新的合資企業中持有股份，以營銷政府的銅和鈷份額。美國買家將享有優先購買權。</p>
</div><p>Central to U.S. policy in central Africa is the new rail link between Congo and the Angolan port of Lobito, a strategic corridor rivaling the alternative Chinese-backed railway to Dar es Salaam in Tanzania.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國在中非政策的核心是剛果與安哥拉洛比託港之間的新鐵路連接，這是一個與中國支持的通往坦桑尼亞達累斯薩拉姆的鐵路相抗衡的戰略走廊。</p>
</div><p>Chinese cobalt buyers are facing not just lower imports from the Congo but increased competition for what is being mined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的鈷買家面臨的不僅是來自剛果的進口減少，還有對正在開採的資源的競爭加劇。</p>
</div><h3>ACHILLES’ HEEL</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>阿基里斯之踵</h3>
</div><p>Mining is China’s Achilles’ heel when it comes to controlling the global cobalt chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在控制全球鈷鏈方面，採礦是中國的阿基里斯之踵。</p>
</div><p>The same is true of many other critical minerals, including even rare earths.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多其他關鍵礦產也是如此，包括稀土。</p>
</div><p>While China is the world’s largest miner of rare earths it is by no means completely self-sufficient, relying on imports of raw materials from its neighbour Myanmar for heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管中國是全球最大的稀土礦產國，但並非完全自給自足，仍依賴從鄰國緬甸進口重稀土如鋱和鏑。</p>
</div><p>As China’s own demand for raw materials grows, it will become even more dependent on third parties to supply the mining inputs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着中國對原材料需求的增長，它將變得更加依賴第三方提供採礦輸入。</p>
</div><p>That dependence is going to be increasingly problematic as China’s cobalt buyers are finding out. (Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種依賴將變得越來越棘手，正如中國的鈷買家所發現的那樣。（安迪·霍姆是路透社的專欄作家。此處表達的觀點為他的個人觀點。）喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省、數據驅動的評論。請在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。並在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社應用上收聽每日播客 Morning Bid。訂閲以收聽路透社記者討論市場和金融的重大新聞，每週七天。</p>
</div><p>China’s slumping imports of cobalt intermediate products from the Congo</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國從剛果進口的鈷中間產品急劇下降</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3MpeL0M" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3MpeL0M"/></p>
<p>Cobalt stripped out of Wuxi exchange warehouses</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從無錫交易所倉庫中提取的鈷</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8iQ8r" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8iQ8r"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（編輯：瑪格麗塔·蔡）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

剛果共和國的鈷限制暴露了中國在關鍵金屬方面的弱點：Andy Home