<p>TradingKey - 最近，由於業績未達預期、人工智能泡沫爭論以及人工智能顛覆理論等因素的影響，特斯拉（TSLA）的股價持續下跌，從 2025 年 12 月的高點下跌近 20%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260228/TSLA-stock-0228-ef72051ed5244aa39525058d6df04727.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260228/TSLA-stock-0228-ef72051ed5244aa39525058d6df04727.jpg"/></p>
<h2><strong>特斯拉當前下跌的真實原因</strong></h2>
<p>普遍觀點認為，特斯拉當前的調整並非由單一因素造成，而是其基本面和估值邏輯同時承受壓力。</p>
<p>首先，在業績層面，電動車（EV）業務持續放緩。全球需求增長減弱，價格戰壓縮了利潤率，國內汽車製造商如比亞迪在中國市場的競爭加劇，搶佔了市場份額。此外，歐洲補貼的撤回和美國高利率環境抑制了消費者需求，給交付帶來了壓力。</p>
<p>最新的財報顯示，汽車毛利率依然較低，遠低於之前的峯值水平，導致市場對盈利復甦的速度產生懷疑。</p>
<p>其次，市場對人工智能的預期降温。在過去一年中，市場將特斯拉視為 “人工智能 + 自動駕駛” 的投資，而不僅僅是一家汽車製造商，這顯著提升了其估值。</p>
<p>然而，隨着人工智能泡沫爭論的加劇，以及自動駕駛商業化進展未能達到部分投資者的預期，資本開始重新評估溢價的合理性。關於 FSD 在中國等關鍵市場的批准和實施仍存在不確定性，Robotaxi 商業模式尚未得到驗證，短期內難以貢獻穩定的現金流。</p>
<p>此外，宏觀經濟環境依然不友好。美聯儲維持高利率的時間比預期更長，給 2026 年高估值成長股帶來了整體壓力；股價從 2025 年 12 月的高點回落近 20% 本質上是估值壓縮，而非單純的情緒波動。</p>
<h2><strong>特斯拉能否重獲市場青睞？</strong></h2>
<p>特斯拉能否重新吸引投資者的興趣，取決於其股價是否跌得足夠深，而在於其增長邏輯是否能夠重新建立。當前市場對特斯拉的分歧非常明顯。</p>
<p>一些投資者仍將其視為核心的人工智能和自動駕駛投資，認為一旦 FSD 實現規模化商業化，Robotaxi 開始貢獻收入，估值框架將從 “汽車製造商” 轉變為 “科技平台”。然而，大多數主流機構目前持謹慎態度，直接原因是核心電動車業務增長放緩，而新業務尚未產生穩定利潤。</p>
<p>從現實來看，電動車業務仍然是利潤的核心。如果全球交付持續以低速增長，且價格戰在較長時間內保持毛利率低迷，即使是最雄心勃勃的人工智能敍事也難以支撐高估值。</p>
<p>相反，如果銷售增長在 2026 年恢復，毛利率回到相對健康的範圍，同時 FSD 的貨幣化模式變得更加清晰，市場情緒可能會顯著改善。</p>
<p>另一個變量是資本市場風格的轉變。如果降息預期持續減弱，緊縮的金融環境可能使高估值成長股難以反彈；如果貨幣環境轉向寬鬆，風險偏好改善，特斯拉作為高貝塔股票，往往會成為最早反彈的股票之一。</p>
<p>最終，特斯拉能否重獲市場青睞，取決於其業績能否跟上其敍事。談論人工智能是不夠的，僅僅賣車也不夠。兩個方面必須同時改善，市場才能再次給予溢價。</p>
<h2><strong>投資者應如何處理特斯拉股票？</strong></h2>
<p>從交易的角度來看，目前階段更適合控制倉位，而不是盲目抄底。投資者可以考慮風險對沖，例如使用期權對沖下行風險，或通過配置新能源 ETF 來分散單一公司的波動。</p>
<p>從中長期的角度來看，關鍵在於判斷特斯拉能否恢復增長。如果你相信它在自動駕駛和儲能等領域仍然具有長期優勢，可以在回調時採取分批買入的策略，並在趨勢增強時增加倉位。這涉及在估值回落至歷史均值或關鍵技術支撐位時逐步買入，並在業績改善得到確認且趨勢獲得動能時增加倉位。這樣可以避免因單一大倉位帶來的方向性錯誤風險。</p>
<p>明確來説，2026 年股價是否繼續下跌取決於兩個變量：首先，電動車利潤率能否停止下滑並反彈；其次，自動駕駛和人工智能業務能否兑現預期。</p>
<p>如果盈利能力仍然疲弱，市場可能會繼續壓縮估值；如果增長重新加速，股價回升的空間將會很大。在這個階段，與其預測底部，不如管理風險。</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

TESL

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

<p>特斯拉的股票自 2025 年 12 月以來已下跌近 20%，原因是電動車需求疲軟、價格戰和高利率。公司的汽車毛利率較低，引發了對盈利復甦的質疑。此外，人工智能預期的降温和對自動駕駛的不確定性也對估值施加了壓力。投資者對特斯拉的未來看法不一，有些人對人工智能持樂觀態度，而另一些人則因電動車增長放緩而持謹慎態度。對於投資者來説，建議控制持倉規模並考慮風險對沖，同時監測特斯拉恢復增長的能力對於長期策略至關重要</p>

<p>TradingKey - Recently, influenced by factors such as earnings missing expectations, as well as the AI bubble debate and AI disruption theories, Tesla (TSLA) its stock price has continued to decline, falling nearly 20% from its December 2025 high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 最近，由於業績未達預期、人工智能泡沫爭論以及人工智能顛覆理論等因素的影響，特斯拉（TSLA）的股價持續下跌，從 2025 年 12 月的高點下跌近 20%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260228/TSLA-stock-0228-ef72051ed5244aa39525058d6df04727.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260228/TSLA-stock-0228-ef72051ed5244aa39525058d6df04727.jpg"/></p>
<h2><strong>The Real Reasons Behind Tesla's Current Decline</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>特斯拉當前下跌的真實原因</strong></h2>
</div><p>The prevailing view is that Tesla's current correction is not caused by a single factor, but rather by simultaneous pressure on its fundamentals and valuation logic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普遍觀點認為，特斯拉當前的調整並非由單一因素造成，而是其基本面和估值邏輯同時承受壓力。</p>
</div><p>First, on the performance level, the electric vehicle (EV) business continues to slow. Global demand growth is weakening, price wars are squeezing profit margins, and competition in the Chinese market is intensifying as domestic automakers like BYD seize market share. Additionally, the withdrawal of subsidies in Europe and the high-interest-rate environment in the U.S. dampening consumer demand have all put pressure on deliveries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，在業績層面，電動車（EV）業務持續放緩。全球需求增長減弱，價格戰壓縮了利潤率，國內汽車製造商如比亞迪在中國市場的競爭加劇，搶佔了市場份額。此外，歐洲補貼的撤回和美國高利率環境抑制了消費者需求，給交付帶來了壓力。</p>
</div><p>The latest financial report shows that automotive gross margins remain low, far below previous peak levels, leading the market to doubt the pace of earnings recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的財報顯示，汽車毛利率依然較低，遠低於之前的峯值水平，導致市場對盈利復甦的速度產生懷疑。</p>
</div><p>Secondly, expectations for AI have cooled. Over the past year, the market viewed Tesla as an &#34;AI + autonomous driving&#34; play rather than just an automaker, which significantly boosted its valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，市場對人工智能的預期降温。在過去一年中，市場將特斯拉視為 “人工智能 + 自動駕駛” 的投資，而不僅僅是一家汽車製造商，這顯著提升了其估值。</p>
</div><p>However, as the AI bubble controversy heats up and the progress of autonomous driving commercialization falls short of some investors' expectations, capital has begun to reassess the rationality of the premium. Uncertainties remain regarding the approval and implementation of FSD in key markets like China, and the Robotaxi business model has yet to be proven, making it difficult to contribute stable cash flow in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，隨着人工智能泡沫爭論的加劇，以及自動駕駛商業化進展未能達到部分投資者的預期，資本開始重新評估溢價的合理性。關於 FSD 在中國等關鍵市場的批准和實施仍存在不確定性，Robotaxi 商業模式尚未得到驗證，短期內難以貢獻穩定的現金流。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, the macroeconomic environment remains unfriendly. The Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates longer than previously expected, putting overall pressure on high-valuation growth stocks in 2026; the stock price's nearly 20% pullback from its December 2025 high is essentially a valuation compression rather than mere sentiment volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，宏觀經濟環境依然不友好。美聯儲維持高利率的時間比預期更長，給 2026 年高估值成長股帶來了整體壓力；股價從 2025 年 12 月的高點回落近 20% 本質上是估值壓縮，而非單純的情緒波動。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Can Tesla Regain Market Favor?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>特斯拉能否重獲市場青睞？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Whether Tesla can regain investor interest depends not on whether the stock price has fallen deep enough, but on whether its growth logic can be re-established. Current market divergence over Tesla is very pronounced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉能否重新吸引投資者的興趣，取決於其股價是否跌得足夠深，而在於其增長邏輯是否能夠重新建立。當前市場對特斯拉的分歧非常明顯。</p>
</div><p>Some investors still view it as a core AI and autonomous driving play, believing that once FSD is commercialized at scale and Robotaxi begins contributing revenue, the valuation framework will shift from an &#34;automaker&#34; to a &#34;tech platform.&#34; However, most mainstream institutions are currently cautious for a direct reason: growth in the core EV business is slowing while new businesses have yet to generate stable profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投資者仍將其視為核心的人工智能和自動駕駛投資，認為一旦 FSD 實現規模化商業化，Robotaxi 開始貢獻收入，估值框架將從 “汽車製造商” 轉變為 “科技平台”。然而，大多數主流機構目前持謹慎態度，直接原因是核心電動車業務增長放緩，而新業務尚未產生穩定利潤。</p>
</div><p>Looking at the reality, the EV business remains the core of profits. If global deliveries continue to grow at a low rate and price wars keep gross margins low for an extended period, even the most ambitious AI narrative will struggle to support a high valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從現實來看，電動車業務仍然是利潤的核心。如果全球交付持續以低速增長，且價格戰在較長時間內保持毛利率低迷，即使是最雄心勃勃的人工智能敍事也難以支撐高估值。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, if sales growth resumes around 2026 and gross margins return to a relatively healthy range, while the FSD monetization model becomes clearer, market sentiment could see a significant improvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，如果銷售增長在 2026 年恢復，毛利率回到相對健康的範圍，同時 FSD 的貨幣化模式變得更加清晰，市場情緒可能會顯著改善。</p>
</div><p>Another variable is the shift in capital market styles. If expectations for rate cuts continue to diminish, tightening financial conditions may make it difficult for high-valuation growth stocks to rally; if the monetary environment turns accommodative and risk appetite improves, Tesla, as a high-beta stock, often tends to be among the first to rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個變量是資本市場風格的轉變。如果降息預期持續減弱，緊縮的金融環境可能使高估值成長股難以反彈；如果貨幣環境轉向寬鬆，風險偏好改善，特斯拉作為高貝塔股票，往往會成為最早反彈的股票之一。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, Tesla's ability to regain market favor depends on whether its performance can keep up with its narrative. Talking about AI is not enough, and just selling cars is not enough. Both fronts must improve simultaneously for the market to grant a premium again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，特斯拉能否重獲市場青睞，取決於其業績能否跟上其敍事。談論人工智能是不夠的，僅僅賣車也不夠。兩個方面必須同時改善，市場才能再次給予溢價。</p>
</div><h2><strong>How Should Investors Handle Tesla Stock?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>投資者應如何處理特斯拉股票？</strong></h2>
</div><p>From a trading perspective, the current stage is better suited for controlling position sizes rather than blindly bottom-fishing. Investors might consider risk hedging, such as using options to hedge downside risk or diversifying single-company volatility by allocating to new energy ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從交易的角度來看，目前階段更適合控制倉位，而不是盲目抄底。投資者可以考慮風險對沖，例如使用期權對沖下行風險，或通過配置新能源 ETF 來分散單一公司的波動。</p>
</div><p>From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the key is to determine whether Tesla can resume growth. If you believe it still holds long-term advantages in areas like autonomous driving and energy storage, you could adopt a strategy of buying in batches during pullbacks and adding to positions as the trend strengthens. This involves buying in increments when the valuation retreats to historical means or key technical support levels, and increasing position sizes when performance improvements are confirmed and the trend gains momentum. Doing so helps avoid the risk of directional errors associated with a single large position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從中長期的角度來看，關鍵在於判斷特斯拉能否恢復增長。如果你相信它在自動駕駛和儲能等領域仍然具有長期優勢，可以在回調時採取分批買入的策略，並在趨勢增強時增加倉位。這涉及在估值回落至歷史均值或關鍵技術支撐位時逐步買入，並在業績改善得到確認且趨勢獲得動能時增加倉位。這樣可以避免因單一大倉位帶來的方向性錯誤風險。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, whether the stock price continues to fall in 2026 depends on two variables: first, whether EV profit margins can stop declining and rebound; second, whether autonomous driving and AI businesses can deliver on expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明確來説，2026 年股價是否繼續下跌取決於兩個變量：首先，電動車利潤率能否停止下滑並反彈；其次，自動駕駛和人工智能業務能否兑現預期。</p>
</div><p>If profitability remains weak, the market is likely to continue compressing valuations; if growth re-accelerates, there is significant room for a stock price recovery. At this stage, rather than predicting the bottom, it is better to manage risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果盈利能力仍然疲弱，市場可能會繼續壓縮估值；如果增長重新加速，股價回升的空間將會很大。在這個階段，與其預測底部，不如管理風險。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

How Tesla Survives the Cold Winter, Will Tesla Stock Continue to Fall in 2026?

- 特斯拉股價因業績未達預期及 AI 泡沫爭論下跌近 20%。  
- 電動汽車業務放緩、利潤率受壓及市場競爭加劇是主要原因。  
- 若特斯拉能重拾增長邏輯，將有望恢復投資者信心。

TradingKey

Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF

特斯拉如何度過寒冬，特斯拉的股票會在 2026 年繼續下跌嗎？