<p>週一將發佈歐元區、英國和美國的製造業 PMI 數據。週二，歐元區將公佈 CPI 同比和核心 CPI 同比的初步估計，而在英國，關注的焦點將是年度預算發佈。</p>
<p>週三將發佈澳大利亞的 GDP 環比數據和瑞士的 CPI 環比數據。在美國，將發佈 ADP 非農就業變動和 ISM 服務業 PMI。週四，美國將跟進發布每週失業申請數據。</p>
<p>週五美國將會很忙，發佈的內容包括平均小時工資環比、非農就業變動、失業率和零售銷售環比數據。</p>
<p>在這一週內，幾位 FOMC 成員也預計將發表講話。</p>
<p>在美國，ISM 製造業 PMI 的共識為 51.7，低於之前的 52.6。上個月製造業數據的改善是由於耐用品訂單的廣泛復甦、穩健的資本支出和在去年的關税增加後庫存的補充。本週的發佈預期不那麼樂觀，儘管該指數仍預計保持在擴張區間。</p>
<p>油價上漲帶來了壓力，尤其是在伊朗軍事行動的背景下。因此，未來製造業調查中的價格支付成分可能仍將保持高位，反映出持續的成本壓力，而不是輸入通脹的顯著緩解。</p>
<p>核心 CPI 同比初步估計的共識為 2.2%，CPI 同比初步估計的共識為 1.7%，與之前的數字持平。</p>
<p>儘管如此，來自富國銀行的分析師預計，歐元區的整體 CPI 將放緩至 1.6%，核心通脹將趨於穩定。更強的歐元、疲軟的全球需求和工資增長放緩共同導致價格壓力減輕。</p>
<p>預計歐洲央行目前將維持利率不變，下一步的舉措傾向於降息，特別是在通脹進一步低於預期或經濟和信貸條件惡化的情況下。</p>
<p>在澳大利亞，GDP 環比的共識為 0.7%，而之前為 0.4%。預計澳大利亞經濟在第三季度疲軟後將有所改善，儘管反彈可能沒有一些人預期的那麼強勁。</p>
<p>西太平洋銀行的分析師指出，預計第四季度的表現超出預期主要是由消費者驅動的，家庭支出在收入改善的背景下加速增長。還有跡象表明商業活動和建築業趨於穩健。</p>
<p>“趨勢性” 季度增長的一個關鍵含義是，經濟可能接近其長期潛力。這降低了經濟急劇放緩的風險，但使通脹辯論仍然受到關注。</p>
<p>西太平洋銀行強調，名義單位勞動成本仍在以約 1.2% 的速度環比上升。隨着生產率增長約為 1.0% 的同比，這一動態可能使澳大利亞儲備銀行對上行通脹風險保持警惕。</p>
<p>從貨幣政策的角度來看，預計澳大利亞儲備銀行將在 5 月的會議上加息，反映出通脹仍然頑固。然而，如果第四季度的增長令人失望，可能會降低今年晚些時候進一步加息的可能性。</p>
<p>在美國，ISM 服務業 PMI 的共識為 53.5，略低於之前的 53.8。與製造業相比，服務業的前景相對更為積極，繼續反映出企業活動的韌性，即使公司在招聘方面採取了更為謹慎的態度。</p>
<p>平均小時工資環比的共識為 0.3%，而之前為 0.4%。預計非農就業人數將增加 58K，而之前為 130K，失業率預計將保持在 4.3% 不變。</p>
<p>本週的就業報告預計將是温和的。儘管招聘需求已停止惡化，但更廣泛的指標如職位空缺數據和消費者對就業機會的看法仍然指向逐漸降温，而不是反彈，富國銀行的分析師表示。</p>
<p>預計就業增長將急劇放緩，受天氣敏感的行業如建築和休閒將對整體數據產生影響。由於一月份醫療保健領域的超額增長，也預計會出現一些回落。</p>
<p>失業率預計將保持穩定，儘管風險是雙向的。家庭調查的近期強勁表現留有空間，可能導致就業稍微放鬆，從而使失業率略微上升，而與移民趨勢變化相關的人口調整可能會施加一些下行壓力。</p>
<p>總體而言，勞動力市場狀況似乎平衡，與持續的工資增長相一致，工資增長仍然受到控制，而不是通脹性。</p>
<p>美國零售銷售環比的共識為-0.3%，而之前為 0.0%。預計一月份的零售銷售將出現温和下降，受到嚴寒冬季天氣、疲軟的汽車銷售和較低的汽油價格的影響。</p>
<p>然而，潛在需求仍然相對完好，排除汽車的支出顯示出更強的勢頭。展望未來，税收退款和穩定的勞動力市場預計將為可自由支配的消費者支出提供支持，富國銀行的分析師表示。</p>

納斯達克綜合指數

道瓊斯指數

標普 500 指數

<p>3 月 2 日至 6 日的一週將發佈關鍵經濟數據，包括製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）、消費者物價指數（CPI）預估以及各地區的國內生產總值（GDP）數據。在美國，ISM 製造業 PMI 預計將下降至 51.7，而服務業 PMI 預計為 53.5。油價上漲和通脹壓力被提及，歐洲央行可能會維持利率不變。澳大利亞預計 GDP 增長為 0.7%，主要受消費者支出的推動。美國的就業報告預計將顯示適度的工資增長和 4.3% 的失業率保持穩定。零售銷售預計將下降 0.3%</p>

<p>Monday begins with the release of manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. On Tuesday, the euro area will publish flash estimates for CPI y/y and core CPI y/y, while in the U.K., attention will focus on the annual budget release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一將發佈歐元區、英國和美國的製造業 PMI 數據。週二，歐元區將公佈 CPI 同比和核心 CPI 同比的初步估計，而在英國，關注的焦點將是年度預算發佈。</p>
</div><p>Wednesday brings GDP q/q data from Australia and the CPI m/m from Switzerland. In the U.S., the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM services PMI will be released. On Thursday, the U.S. will follow up with the weekly unemployment claims data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三將發佈澳大利亞的 GDP 環比數據和瑞士的 CPI 環比數據。在美國，將發佈 ADP 非農就業變動和 ISM 服務業 PMI。週四，美國將跟進發布每週失業申請數據。</p>
</div><p>Friday will be busy in the U.S., with releases including average hourly earnings m/m, non-farm employment change, the unemployment rate, and the retail sales m/m figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五美國將會很忙，發佈的內容包括平均小時工資環比、非農就業變動、失業率和零售銷售環比數據。</p>
</div><p>Throughout the week, several FOMC members are also expected to deliver their remarks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這一週內，幾位 FOMC 成員也預計將發表講話。</p>
</div><p>In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM manufacturing PMI is 51.7, down from 52.6 previously. Last month’s improvement in manufacturing figures was driven by a broadening recovery in durable goods orders, solid capital spending and inventory restocking following last year’s tariff increases. For this week’s release, expectations are less optimistic, though the index is still projected to remain in expansionary territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國，ISM 製造業 PMI 的共識為 51.7，低於之前的 52.6。上個月製造業數據的改善是由於耐用品訂單的廣泛復甦、穩健的資本支出和在去年的關税增加後庫存的補充。本週的發佈預期不那麼樂觀，儘管該指數仍預計保持在擴張區間。</p>
</div><p>Rising oil prices are adding pressure, particularly amid the Iran military operation. As a result, the prices paid component of upcoming manufacturing surveys is likely to remain elevated, reflecting persistent cost pressures rather than a meaningful easing in input inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價上漲帶來了壓力，尤其是在伊朗軍事行動的背景下。因此，未來製造業調查中的價格支付成分可能仍將保持高位，反映出持續的成本壓力，而不是輸入通脹的顯著緩解。</p>
</div><p>The consensus for the core CPI flash estimate y/y is 2.2% and for the CPI flash estimate y/y is 1.7%, unchanged from the previous prints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心 CPI 同比初步估計的共識為 2.2%，CPI 同比初步估計的共識為 1.7%，與之前的數字持平。</p>
</div><p>That said, analysts from Wells Fargo expect the euro headline CPI to soften to 1.6% and the core inflation to stabilize. A stronger euro, weak global demand, and easing wage growth contribute to reduced price pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，來自富國銀行的分析師預計，歐元區的整體 CPI 將放緩至 1.6%，核心通脹將趨於穩定。更強的歐元、疲軟的全球需求和工資增長放緩共同導致價格壓力減輕。</p>
</div><p>The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged for now, with the next move tilted towards a cut, especially if inflation undershoots further or growth and credit conditions weaken.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計歐洲央行目前將維持利率不變，下一步的舉措傾向於降息，特別是在通脹進一步低於預期或經濟和信貸條件惡化的情況下。</p>
</div><p>In Australia, the consensus for GDP q/q is 0.7% versus 0.4% previously. The Australian economy is expected to show improvement after a softer Q3, though the rebound may not be as strong as some anticipate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在澳大利亞，GDP 環比的共識為 0.7%，而之前為 0.4%。預計澳大利亞經濟在第三季度疲軟後將有所改善，儘管反彈可能沒有一些人預期的那麼強勁。</p>
</div><p>Westpac analysts note that the expected Q4 outperformance is largely a consumer-driven story, with household spending accelerating on the back of improving incomes. There are also signs of firmer business activity and construction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西太平洋銀行的分析師指出，預計第四季度的表現超出預期主要是由消費者驅動的，家庭支出在收入改善的背景下加速增長。還有跡象表明商業活動和建築業趨於穩健。</p>
</div><p>A key implication of “trend-like” quarterly growth is that the economy may be operating close to its long-run potential. This reduces the risk of a sharp growth slowdown but keeps the inflation debate in focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“趨勢性” 季度增長的一個關鍵含義是，經濟可能接近其長期潛力。這降低了經濟急劇放緩的風險，但使通脹辯論仍然受到關注。</p>
</div><p>Westpac highlights that nominal unit labour costs are still rising by around 1.2% q/q. With productivity growth running at roughly 1.0% y/y, this dynamic could keep the RBA alert to upside inflation risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西太平洋銀行強調，名義單位勞動成本仍在以約 1.2% 的速度環比上升。隨着生產率增長約為 1.0% 的同比，這一動態可能使澳大利亞儲備銀行對上行通脹風險保持警惕。</p>
</div><p>From a monetary policy perspective, the RBA is expected to deliver a rate hike at its May meeting, reflecting still-sticky inflation. However, if Q4 growth disappoints, it could be enough to reduce the likelihood of further hikes later in the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從貨幣政策的角度來看，預計澳大利亞儲備銀行將在 5 月的會議上加息，反映出通脹仍然頑固。然而，如果第四季度的增長令人失望，可能會降低今年晚些時候進一步加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM services PMI is 53.5, slightly down from 53.8 previously. Compared with manufacturing, the outlook for the services sector is somewhat more positive and continues to reflect resilient business activity, even as companies adopt a more cautious approach to hiring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國，ISM 服務業 PMI 的共識為 53.5，略低於之前的 53.8。與製造業相比，服務業的前景相對更為積極，繼續反映出企業活動的韌性，即使公司在招聘方面採取了更為謹慎的態度。</p>
</div><p>The consensus for average hourly earnings m/m is 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 58K, compared with 130K prior, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均小時工資環比的共識為 0.3%，而之前為 0.4%。預計非農就業人數將增加 58K，而之前為 130K，失業率預計將保持在 4.3% 不變。</p>
</div><p>This week’s jobs report is expected to be modest. While hiring demand has stopped deteriorating, broader indicators such as job openings data and consumer perceptions of job availability continue to point to a gradual cooling rather than a rebound, according to Wells Fargo analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週的就業報告預計將是温和的。儘管招聘需求已停止惡化，但更廣泛的指標如職位空缺數據和消費者對就業機會的看法仍然指向逐漸降温，而不是反彈，富國銀行的分析師表示。</p>
</div><p>Payroll growth is seen slowing sharply, with weather-sensitive sectors like construction and leisure weighing on the headline figure. Some pullback is also expected following January’s outsized gains in healthcare.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計就業增長將急劇放緩，受天氣敏感的行業如建築和休閒將對整體數據產生影響。由於一月份醫療保健領域的超額增長，也預計會出現一些回落。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady, though risks are two-sided. Recent strength in the household survey leaves room for softer employment that could push joblessness slightly higher, while population adjustments tied to changing immigration trends could exert some downward pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失業率預計將保持穩定，儘管風險是雙向的。家庭調查的近期強勁表現留有空間，可能導致就業稍微放鬆，從而使失業率略微上升，而與移民趨勢變化相關的人口調整可能會施加一些下行壓力。</p>
</div><p>Overall, labor market conditions appear balanced, consistent with steady wage growth that remains contained rather than inflationary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，勞動力市場狀況似乎平衡，與持續的工資增長相一致，工資增長仍然受到控制，而不是通脹性。</p>
</div><p>The consensus for U.S. retail sales m/m is -0.3% compared with 0.0% previously. The January retail sales are expected to show a modest decline, weighed down by severe winter weather, softer auto sales, and lower gasoline prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國零售銷售環比的共識為-0.3%，而之前為 0.0%。預計一月份的零售銷售將出現温和下降，受到嚴寒冬季天氣、疲軟的汽車銷售和較低的汽油價格的影響。</p>
</div><p>However, underlying demand remains relatively intact, with spending excluding autos showing firmer momentum. Looking ahead, tax refunds and a stabilizing labor market are expected to provide support to discretionary consumer spending, Wells Fargo analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，潛在需求仍然相對完好，排除汽車的支出顯示出更強的勢頭。展望未來，税收退款和穩定的勞動力市場預計將為可自由支配的消費者支出提供支持，富國銀行的分析師表示。</p>
</div>

Market outlook for the week of 2nd-6th March

- 本週將發佈多國經濟數據，包括 PMI、CPI 和 GDP 等。  
- 美國預計將發佈非農就業變動、失業率等指標，增速放緩。  
- 歐元區 CPI 同比初步估計維持在 1.7%，整體放緩至 1.6%。

3 月 2 日至 6 日這一週的市場前景展望