<p>TradingKey - 在美國和以色列對伊朗的空襲後，投資者密切關注美國市場週一的開盤情況。亞洲和歐洲的早期下跌暗示股市面臨壓力，但油價的急劇上漲可能為能源行業提供了一線生機。</p>
<h2>油股在盤前上漲</h2>
<p>在全球普遍拋售的背景下，上游和綜合性石油公司作為少數贏家脱穎而出。在美國盤前交易中，能源股普遍上漲——西方石油公司（OXY）上漲 6%，埃克森美孚（XOM）上漲 5%，雪佛龍（CVX）上漲 4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/oil-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-0c2ab7f8aedb4f38a96f05105f341f8b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/oil-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-0c2ab7f8aedb4f38a96f05105f341f8b.png"/></p>
<p>此次反彈直接源於油價飆升。在空襲後，布倫特原油價格幾乎上漲了 14%，從剛剛超過 70 美元飆升至超過 80 美元每桶，而 WTI 上漲了近 12%。分析師警告，如果霍爾木茲海峽的航運持續受到干擾，油價達到 90 至 100 美元每桶的情景將不再被視為低概率事件。</p>
<p>對於上游生產商和綜合性大型企業而言，短期內生產基本固定——因此每上漲 10 美元的原油價格都會帶來不成比例的利潤激增。由於此次上漲是由風險溢價驅動，市場現在將 “持續高位價格” 的假設嵌入到未來收益模型中，從而提升了整個能源行業的估值基線。</p>
<h2><strong>國防股票可能受益</strong></h2>
<p>隨着週期性股票和指數下跌，國防類股票找到了新的動力。自去年對伊朗的首次空襲以來，iShares 美國航空航天與國防 ETF（ITA）上漲了約 35%，而洛克希德·馬丁公司（LMT）和諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司（NOC）的股票分別上漲了約 40% 和 46%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/defense-stocks_optimized_150-bc9549607320448aba16d48fef8155ca.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/defense-stocks_optimized_150-bc9549607320448aba16d48fef8155ca.png"/></p>
<p>不斷升級的戰爭風險使立法機構——從美國國會到盟國議會——有了一個明確的理由來增加國防預算。對導彈防禦、無人機、電子戰、情報和監視以及太空資產保護的支出似乎將會增加。安全避風港的需求和訂單管道的樂觀情緒吸引投資者關注國防股票，作為對地緣政治衝擊的自然對沖，許多人押注未來三到五年內資金將持續增長。</p>
<p>儘管如此，在經歷了由於俄烏戰爭驅動的重新定價後，西方國防股票不再被深度低估。中東的再次動盪在已經高估的估值上增加了另一層風險溢價——雖然現在支撐價格，但可能會放大未來的任何修正。</p>
<h2><strong>航空公司成為衝突的受害者</strong></h2>
<p>相比之下，商業航空在這一輪中東緊張局勢中成為了明顯的輸家。數據顯示，四大美國航空公司——達美航空（DAL）、聯合航空（UAL）、美國航空集團（AAL）和西南航空（LUV）——在盤前交易中均出現下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/airline-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-087578c38f1e4c6e8486b22b9c4c4768.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/airline-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-087578c38f1e4c6e8486b22b9c4c4768.png"/></p>
<p>中東是全球航線的重要中轉樞紐。在空襲和隨後的伊朗導彈報復後，油價飆升，整個地區的空域連續幾天關閉。迪拜和多哈等主要樞紐暫停運營，導致大規模航班取消。</p>
<p>航空公司現在面臨雙重打擊。直接損失來自於取消航班和退款，而間接損失則源於改道——更高的燃油消耗、機組費用和減少的飛機利用率。當這種壓力持續數天或數週時，影響會迅速加劇。</p>
<h2><strong>海運面臨類似壓力</strong></h2>
<p>霍爾木茲海峽是世界上最重要的海上交通要道之一，連接波斯灣、阿曼灣和阿拉伯海，是中東石油出口的重要通道。伊朗作為主要生產國，直接位於這一通道上。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/Hormuz-8b65a17fc9b2446098309b6d8d73a55f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/Hormuz-8b65a17fc9b2446098309b6d8d73a55f.png"/></p>
<p>週日，彭博社報道，經過霍爾木茲海峽的油氣運輸幾乎已停滯。伊斯蘭革命衞隊警告商業船隻該水道不安全。RBC 資本市場的分析師指出，革命衞隊 “仍可能部署小型船隻、地雷、無人機和導彈來阻止航運，直到敵對行動結束”，迫使保險公司和運營商避開該航道。</p>
<p>財務影響遠不止於停止的貨物運輸。航運運營商面臨着隨着油價上漲而飆升的燃料成本。除非運費同步上漲，否則利潤率將會縮小。進入或離開霍爾木茲走廊的船隻面臨急劇上升的戰爭風險溢價和保險附加費。此外，持續干擾的可能性正在削弱全球貿易情緒，給貨運市場和更廣泛的需求前景帶來壓力。</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

西方石油

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

埃克森美孚

能源業 ETF - SPDR

<p>在美國和以色列對伊朗進行空襲後，全球市場承壓，亞洲和歐洲早盤出現下跌。然而，石油和國防股票表現良好。油價飆升，布倫特原油上漲近 14%，使得像西方石油和埃克森美孚這樣的能源公司受益。國防股票也因軍事開支增加而獲得動力，尤其是在緊張局勢升級的背景下。相反，航空公司因航班取消和運營成本增加而遭受損失。霍爾木茲海峽面臨航運中斷，影響海上運輸並提高了航運運營商的成本</p>

<p>TradingKey - Following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, investors are watching closely to see how U.S. markets will open on Monday. Early declines in Asia and Europe suggest pressure on equities, yet the sharp surge in oil prices could offer a lifeline for the energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 在美國和以色列對伊朗的空襲後，投資者密切關注美國市場週一的開盤情況。亞洲和歐洲的早期下跌暗示股市面臨壓力，但油價的急劇上漲可能為能源行業提供了一線生機。</p>
</div><h2>Oil Stocks Rise in Premarket</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油股在盤前上漲</h2>
</div><p>Against a backdrop of broad global sell‑offs, upstream and integrated oil companies are standing out as rare gainers. In U.S. pre‑market trading, energy shares climbed across the board — Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) rose 6%, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) gained 5%, and Chevron Corp. (CVX) advanced 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球普遍拋售的背景下，上游和綜合性石油公司作為少數贏家脱穎而出。在美國盤前交易中，能源股普遍上漲——西方石油公司（OXY）上漲 6%，埃克森美孚（XOM）上漲 5%，雪佛龍（CVX）上漲 4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/oil-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-0c2ab7f8aedb4f38a96f05105f341f8b.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/oil-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-0c2ab7f8aedb4f38a96f05105f341f8b.png"/></p>
<p>The rally stemmed directly from the oil spike. After the strikes, Brent crude surged nearly 14%, from just above US $70 to over US $80 per barrel, while WTI climbed almost 12%. Analysts warn that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, prices reaching US $90 to $100 per barrel can no longer be dismissed as a low‑probability scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次反彈直接源於油價飆升。在空襲後，布倫特原油價格幾乎上漲了 14%，從剛剛超過 70 美元飆升至超過 80 美元每桶，而 WTI 上漲了近 12%。分析師警告，如果霍爾木茲海峽的航運持續受到干擾，油價達到 90 至 100 美元每桶的情景將不再被視為低概率事件。</p>
</div><p>For upstream producers and integrated majors, production is largely fixed in the short term — so every US $10 increase in crude translates into a disproportionate profit surge. Because this rise is driven by a risk premium, markets are now embedding assumptions of “persistently elevated prices” into forward earnings models, lifting valuation baselines across the energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於上游生產商和綜合性大型企業而言，短期內生產基本固定——因此每上漲 10 美元的原油價格都會帶來不成比例的利潤激增。由於此次上漲是由風險溢價驅動，市場現在將 “持續高位價格” 的假設嵌入到未來收益模型中，從而提升了整個能源行業的估值基線。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Defense Stocks May Benefit</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>國防股票可能受益</strong></h2>
</div><p>As cyclicals and indices slump, defense names are finding fresh momentum. The iShares U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (ITA) has gained roughly 35% since the first wave of strikes on Iran last year, while Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) shares are up about 40% and 46%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着週期性股票和指數下跌，國防類股票找到了新的動力。自去年對伊朗的首次空襲以來，iShares 美國航空航天與國防 ETF（ITA）上漲了約 35%，而洛克希德·馬丁公司（LMT）和諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司（NOC）的股票分別上漲了約 40% 和 46%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/defense-stocks_optimized_150-bc9549607320448aba16d48fef8155ca.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/defense-stocks_optimized_150-bc9549607320448aba16d48fef8155ca.png"/></p>
<p>Escalating war risk gives legislatures — from the U.S. Congress to allied parliaments — a straightforward argument for larger defense budgets. Spending on missile defense, drones, electronic warfare, intelligence and surveillance, and space‑asset protection appears set to climb. The mix of safe‑haven demand and order‑pipeline optimism is drawing investors toward defense stocks as natural hedges against geopolitical shocks, with many betting on sustained funding growth over the next three to five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不斷升級的戰爭風險使立法機構——從美國國會到盟國議會——有了一個明確的理由來增加國防預算。對導彈防禦、無人機、電子戰、情報和監視以及太空資產保護的支出似乎將會增加。安全避風港的需求和訂單管道的樂觀情緒吸引投資者關注國防股票，作為對地緣政治衝擊的自然對沖，許多人押注未來三到五年內資金將持續增長。</p>
</div><p>That said, after years of rerating driven by the Russia–Ukraine war, Western defense equities are no longer deeply undervalued. Renewed turmoil in the Middle East adds another layer of risk premium atop already rich valuations — supporting prices now but potentially magnifying any future corrections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，在經歷了由於俄烏戰爭驅動的重新定價後，西方國防股票不再被深度低估。中東的再次動盪在已經高估的估值上增加了另一層風險溢價——雖然現在支撐價格，但可能會放大未來的任何修正。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Airlines Become the Conflict’s Casualties</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>航空公司成為衝突的受害者</strong></h2>
</div><p>Commercial aviation, by contrast, has become a clear loser in this round of Middle East tensions. Data show that the four major U.S. carriers — Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), and Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) — all fell in pre‑market trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，商業航空在這一輪中東緊張局勢中成為了明顯的輸家。數據顯示，四大美國航空公司——達美航空（DAL）、聯合航空（UAL）、美國航空集團（AAL）和西南航空（LUV）——在盤前交易中均出現下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/airline-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-087578c38f1e4c6e8486b22b9c4c4768.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/airline-stocks_optimized_150_1_optimized_150-087578c38f1e4c6e8486b22b9c4c4768.png"/></p>
<p>The Middle East is a critical transit hub for global routes. After the strikes and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, oil prices spiked and airspace across the region closed for consecutive days. Major hubs such as Dubai and Doha halted operations, forcing widespread flight cancellations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東是全球航線的重要中轉樞紐。在空襲和隨後的伊朗導彈報復後，油價飆升，整個地區的空域連續幾天關閉。迪拜和多哈等主要樞紐暫停運營，導致大規模航班取消。</p>
</div><p>Airlines now face a double blow. Direct losses stem from scrapped flights and refunds, while indirect losses arise from rerouting — higher fuel consumption, crew expenses, and reduced aircraft utilization. These pressures compound quickly when sustained for days or weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空公司現在面臨雙重打擊。直接損失來自於取消航班和退款，而間接損失則源於改道——更高的燃油消耗、機組費用和減少的飛機利用率。當這種壓力持續數天或數週時，影響會迅速加劇。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Maritime Transport Faces Parallel Pressures</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>海運面臨類似壓力</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and serving as a vital artery for Middle Eastern oil exports. Iran, itself a major producer, sits directly on the passage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍爾木茲海峽是世界上最重要的海上交通要道之一，連接波斯灣、阿曼灣和阿拉伯海，是中東石油出口的重要通道。伊朗作為主要生產國，直接位於這一通道上。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/Hormuz-8b65a17fc9b2446098309b6d8d73a55f.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260302/Hormuz-8b65a17fc9b2446098309b6d8d73a55f.png"/></p>
<p>On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that oil and gas shipments through the Strait had largely ground to a halt. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned commercial vessels that the waterway was unsafe. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets noted that the Guard “could still deploy small boats, mines, drones, and missiles to deter shipping until hostilities end,” forcing insurers and operators to steer clear of the route.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週日，彭博社報道，經過霍爾木茲海峽的油氣運輸幾乎已停滯。伊斯蘭革命衞隊警告商業船隻該水道不安全。RBC 資本市場的分析師指出，革命衞隊 “仍可能部署小型船隻、地雷、無人機和導彈來阻止航運，直到敵對行動結束”，迫使保險公司和運營商避開該航道。</p>
</div><p>The financial impact extends well beyond halted cargoes. Shipping operators are contending with soaring fuel costs as oil rises. Unless freight rates climb in tandem, profit margins will shrink. Vessels entering or leaving the Hormuz corridor face sharply higher war‑risk premiums and insurance surcharges. Added to that, the possibility of prolonged disruption is undermining global‑trade sentiment, pressuring both freight markets and broader demand outlooks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>財務影響遠不止於停止的貨物運輸。航運運營商面臨着隨着油價上漲而飆升的燃料成本。除非運費同步上漲，否則利潤率將會縮小。進入或離開霍爾木茲走廊的船隻面臨急劇上升的戰爭風險溢價和保險附加費。此外，持續干擾的可能性正在削弱全球貿易情緒，給貨運市場和更廣泛的需求前景帶來壓力。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

Markets Sell Off amid Iran Tensions — But Oil and Defense Stocks Hold Up

- 美國和以色列對伊朗的空襲後，投資者關注市場反應。  
- 能源股因油價上漲而逆勢上漲，西方防務股也受益。  
- 航空公司遭受衝突影響，面臨大規模航班 cancellations。

市場因伊朗緊張局勢而出現拋售，但石油和國防類股票依然堅挺