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<p>美國與伊朗的戰爭迫使投資者重新思考資金的投放方向，因為地緣政治風險取代了人工智能和關税，成為市場的主導敍事。</p>
<p>美國和以色列對伊朗的襲擊，隨後是導彈報復和霍爾木茲海峽周邊的干擾，已將油價推至近七個月來的最高水平，導致股指期貨下跌，並促使資金湧入避險資產。</p>
<p>分析師表示，當前戰爭時期的主要投資方向集中在四個領域：能源生產商、防務承包商、黃金及其他避險資產，以及能夠承受更高通脹和波動期的高質量收益投資。</p>
<h2>能源：利用油價風險溢價</h2>
<p>伊朗位於關鍵航運路線，約 20-25% 的全球海運原油通過霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
<p>隨着油輪暫停航行和保險公司重新評估承保，布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質原油價格均已上漲，一些分析師警告稱，持續的干擾可能會將價格推向甚至超過每桶 100 美元。</p>
<p>這種環境通常有利於：</p>
<ul>
<li>擁有多元化上游、煉油和化工業務的綜合性大型企業，這些企業受益於更強的原油價格和更寬的產品利潤。</li>
<li>能夠向受物理瓶頸影響較小的市場銷售的區域多元化生產商。</li>
</ul>
<p>專家指出，大型現金流產生的石油公司可能會成為伊朗風險溢價的潛在受益者，指出它們的公允價值估計假設的基準價格低於目前討論的價格。</p>
<p>瑞銀和其他財富管理公司也將能源視為一個關鍵的超配領域，只要供應擔憂主導，全球需求保持韌性。</p>
<h2>防務：高軍費支出的長期贏家</h2>
<p>在股票方面，防務是另一個顯而易見的戰爭贏家。</p>
<p>涉及美國、伊朗和以色列的全面衝突 “將對金融市場產生漣漪效應，並引入顯著的波動性”，但歷史表明，防務和航空航天股票通常會在導彈、飛機和雷達系統訂單增加時表現優於大盤，依據一項跨行業分析。</p>
<p>在研究報告中反覆提到的公司包括：</p>
<ul>
<li>在導彈防禦、巡航導彈和美國及以色列使用的先進戰鬥機方面有曝光的美國主要承包商。</li>
<li>提供愛國者和鐵穹等防空和雷達系統的公司，這些系統直接參與抵禦伊朗及其代理人的攻擊。</li>
</ul>
<p>分析師強調，之前中東的緊張局勢與對這些承包商的重新關注相吻合，因為投資者預期不僅會有立即的補給訂單，如果對抗持續，防務預算也會結構性提高。</p>
<p><strong><em>立即在 eToro 上購買股票。</em></strong></p>
<h2>黃金和避險資產：對升級的保險</h2>
<p>除了行業投資，美國與伊朗的戰爭重新激活了經典的 “風險規避” 交易。油價的上漲和對通脹衝擊的擔憂促使投資者湧向黃金、美元和高等級政府債券。</p>
<p>黃金價格飆升至創紀錄水平，Capital Economics 等分析師警告稱，對伊朗基礎設施的進一步打擊可能會使能源和貴金屬價格保持高位，複雜化中央銀行降息的努力。</p>
<p>一項詳細的跨資產評估指出，在霍爾木茲海峽持續受阻或軍事反應持續的情況下，“石油和貴金屬將繼續上漲，而全球股票將面臨重新拋售的壓力”，投資者尋求在瑞士法郎、日元和美國國債中尋求安全。</p>
<p>美國策略師將華爾街當前的做法描述為 “避險優先，事後再問”，短期國債收益率回落至 2022 年的低點，交易員對進一步衝擊進行對沖。</p>
<p>投資組合經理還指出，高質量的防禦性股票領域，如公用事業和房地產，如果增長放緩且波動性保持高位，可能會成為相對受益者。</p>
<h2>質量和多樣化仍然重要</h2>
<p>即使是看似適合戰爭時期的行業也有其警示。一些市場策略師認為，考慮到伊朗的弱勢地位以及全球普遍希望避免長期油價衝擊的興趣，局勢緩和可能會比預期更快到來。</p>
<p>這可能會導致石油和黃金回吐部分漲幅，領導權重新轉向更廣泛的週期性股票。</p>
<p>其他人強調，儘管能源和防務可能領先，但 “消費品股票可能會面臨困難，因為更高的油價對航空公司和零售商產生負面影響”，指出由於航線受阻和燃料成本上升，旅行和休閒類股票近期出現拋售。</p>
<p>新興市場的石油進口國也被視為脆弱，因為更高的進口賬單擴大了赤字，並迫使中央銀行在利率上做出艱難選擇。</p>
<p>主要機構的共識是，隨着美國與伊朗衝突的發展，傾向於能源、防務、黃金和高質量收益的投資組合——同時保持廣泛的多樣化和流動性——最適合在幾周內應對加劇的地緣政治風險，而不對任何單一結果進行過度押注。</p>
<p>這篇文章的標題為《在美國與伊朗衝突震動全球市場時，投資在哪裏？》首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>美國與伊朗的衝突正在重塑投資策略，地緣政治風險現在已超越以往的市場敍事。由於軍事行動和霍爾木茲海峽的干擾，油價飆升，促使投資者轉向避險資產。分析師強調了四個關鍵投資領域：能源生產商、國防承包商、黃金和高質量的收益投資。儘管能源和國防行業預計將受益，但由於市場波動可能影響依賴石油進口的消費品股票和新興市場，建議保持謹慎</p>

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<p>The US–Iran war is forcing investors to rethink where to put money to work as geopolitical risk replaces artificial intelligence and tariffs as the dominant market narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國與伊朗的戰爭迫使投資者重新思考資金的投放方向，因為地緣政治風險取代了人工智能和關税，成為市場的主導敍事。</p>
</div><p>Strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, followed by missile retaliation and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed oil to its highest levels in nearly seven months, knocked stock futures lower and driven a rush into safe‑haven assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國和以色列對伊朗的襲擊，隨後是導彈報復和霍爾木茲海峽周邊的干擾，已將油價推至近七個月來的最高水平，導致股指期貨下跌，並促使資金湧入避險資產。</p>
</div><p>Analysts say the main axis of wartime positioning now runs through four areas: energy producers, defence contractors, gold and other havens, and high‑quality income plays that can withstand a period of higher inflation and volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師表示，當前戰爭時期的主要投資方向集中在四個領域：能源生產商、防務承包商、黃金及其他避險資產，以及能夠承受更高通脹和波動期的高質量收益投資。</p>
</div><h2>Energy: Riding the oil risk premium</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>能源：利用油價風險溢價</h2>
</div><p>Iran sits on key shipping routes where about 20–25% of global seaborne crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗位於關鍵航運路線，約 20-25% 的全球海運原油通過霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
</div><p>With tankers suspending transits and insurers reassessing coverage, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate have broken higher, with some analysts warning that a sustained disruption could push prices toward or even above $100 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着油輪暫停航行和保險公司重新評估承保，布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質原油價格均已上漲，一些分析師警告稱，持續的干擾可能會將價格推向甚至超過每桶 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>That environment typically favours:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種環境通常有利於：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Integrated majors with diversified upstream, refining and chemicals operations, which benefit from stronger crude and wider product margins.</li>
<li>Regionally diversified producers that can sell into markets less affected by physical chokepoints.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>擁有多元化上游、煉油和化工業務的綜合性大型企業，這些企業受益於更強的原油價格和更寬的產品利潤。</li>
<li>能夠向受物理瓶頸影響較小的市場銷售的區域多元化生產商。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Experts point to large, cash‑generative oil companies as potential beneficiaries of an Iran risk premium, noting that their fair‑value estimates assumed lower benchmark prices than those now being discussed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>專家指出，大型現金流產生的石油公司可能會成為伊朗風險溢價的潛在受益者，指出它們的公允價值估計假設的基準價格低於目前討論的價格。</p>
</div><p>UBS and other wealth managers also flag energy as a key overweight as long as supply concerns dominate and global demand remains resilient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞銀和其他財富管理公司也將能源視為一個關鍵的超配領域，只要供應擔憂主導，全球需求保持韌性。</p>
</div><h2>Defence: Long‑cycle winners from higher military spending</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>防務：高軍費支出的長期贏家</h2>
</div><p>On the equity side, defence is the other obvious wartime winner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票方面，防務是另一個顯而易見的戰爭贏家。</p>
</div><p>A full‑scale conflict involving the US, Iran and Israel “would send ripples through financial markets and introduce significant volatility,” but history shows that defence and aerospace stocks often outperform as orders for missiles, aircraft and radar systems rise, according to one cross‑sector analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>涉及美國、伊朗和以色列的全面衝突 “將對金融市場產生漣漪效應，並引入顯著的波動性”，但歷史表明，防務和航空航天股票通常會在導彈、飛機和雷達系統訂單增加時表現優於大盤，依據一項跨行業分析。</p>
</div><p>Names repeatedly cited across research notes include:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在研究報告中反覆提到的公司包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>US primes with exposure to missile defence, cruise missiles and advanced fighters used by the US and Israel.</li>
<li>Companies providing air‑defence and radar systems such as the Patriot and Iron Dome families, which are directly engaged in countering Iranian and proxy attacks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在導彈防禦、巡航導彈和美國及以色列使用的先進戰鬥機方面有曝光的美國主要承包商。</li>
<li>提供愛國者和鐵穹等防空和雷達系統的公司，這些系統直接參與抵禦伊朗及其代理人的攻擊。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Analysts highlight that prior Middle East flare‑ups have coincided with renewed interest in these contractors, as investors anticipate both immediate replenishment orders and structurally higher defence budgets if the confrontation drags on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師強調，之前中東的緊張局勢與對這些承包商的重新關注相吻合，因為投資者預期不僅會有立即的補給訂單，如果對抗持續，防務預算也會結構性提高。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Buy stocks instantly on eToro now.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>立即在 eToro 上購買股票。</em></strong></p>
</div><h2>Gold and safe havens: Insurance against escalation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黃金和避險資產：對升級的保險</h2>
</div><p>Beyond sector bets, the US–Iran war has revived classic “risk‑off” trades. Oil’s jump and fears of an inflation shock have driven investors into gold, the US dollar and high‑grade government bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了行業投資，美國與伊朗的戰爭重新激活了經典的 “風險規避” 交易。油價的上漲和對通脹衝擊的擔憂促使投資者湧向黃金、美元和高等級政府債券。</p>
</div><p>Gold has surged to record levels, and analysts at Capital Economics and others warn that further strikes on Iranian infrastructure could keep both energy and bullion elevated, complicating central banks’ efforts to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金價格飆升至創紀錄水平，Capital Economics 等分析師警告稱，對伊朗基礎設施的進一步打擊可能會使能源和貴金屬價格保持高位，複雜化中央銀行降息的努力。</p>
</div><p>A detailed cross‑asset review notes that in a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted or military responses persist, “oil and precious metals will continue to move higher while global equities feel renewed pressure to sell,” with investors seeking safety in the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and US Treasuries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一項詳細的跨資產評估指出，在霍爾木茲海峽持續受阻或軍事反應持續的情況下，“石油和貴金屬將繼續上漲，而全球股票將面臨重新拋售的壓力”，投資者尋求在瑞士法郎、日元和美國國債中尋求安全。</p>
</div><p>US strategists describe Wall Street’s current approach as “haven first, ask questions later,” with short‑term Treasury yields falling back toward 2022 lows as traders hedge against further shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國策略師將華爾街當前的做法描述為 “避險優先，事後再問”，短期國債收益率回落至 2022 年的低點，交易員對進一步衝擊進行對沖。</p>
</div><p>Portfolio managers also flag high‑quality, defensive equity sectors such as utilities and real estate as potential relative beneficiaries if growth slows and volatility stays high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資組合經理還指出，高質量的防禦性股票領域，如公用事業和房地產，如果增長放緩且波動性保持高位，可能會成為相對受益者。</p>
</div><h2>Quality and diversification still matter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>質量和多樣化仍然重要</h2>
</div><p>Even sectors that look well‑positioned for wartime come with caveats. Some market strategists argue that de‑escalation could come faster than feared, particularly given Iran’s weakened position and the broad global interest in avoiding a prolonged oil shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是看似適合戰爭時期的行業也有其警示。一些市場策略師認為，考慮到伊朗的弱勢地位以及全球普遍希望避免長期油價衝擊的興趣，局勢緩和可能會比預期更快到來。</p>
</div><p>That would likely see oil and gold give back some gains and shift leadership back toward broader cyclicals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這可能會導致石油和黃金回吐部分漲幅，領導權重新轉向更廣泛的週期性股票。</p>
</div><p>Others stress that while energy and defence may lead, “consumer discretionary stocks may struggle as higher oil prices negatively impact airlines and retailers,” pointing to recent sell‑offs in travel and leisure names as flight routes are disrupted and fuel costs climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他人強調，儘管能源和防務可能領先，但 “消費品股票可能會面臨困難，因為更高的油價對航空公司和零售商產生負面影響”，指出由於航線受阻和燃料成本上升，旅行和休閒類股票近期出現拋售。</p>
</div><p>Emerging‑market importers of oil are also seen as vulnerable as higher import bills widen deficits and force central banks into tough choices on rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新興市場的石油進口國也被視為脆弱，因為更高的進口賬單擴大了赤字，並迫使中央銀行在利率上做出艱難選擇。</p>
</div><p>The consensus across major houses is that, as the US–Iran conflict plays out, portfolios tilted toward energy, defence, gold and high‑quality income — while staying broadly diversified and liquid — are best placed to navigate a few weeks of heightened geopolitical risk without over‑betting on any single outcome.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要機構的共識是，隨着美國與伊朗衝突的發展，傾向於能源、防務、黃金和高質量收益的投資組合——同時保持廣泛的多樣化和流動性——最適合在幾周內應對加劇的地緣政治風險，而不對任何單一結果進行過度押注。</p>
</div><p>The post Where to invest in wartime as US–Iran clash rattles global markets appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這篇文章的標題為《在美國與伊朗衝突震動全球市場時，投資在哪裏？》首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

在美伊衝突擾亂全球市場的情況下，戰時應投資於何處