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<p>美國勞動力市場在 2 月份出現降温跡象，非農就業人數意外下降，失業率也高於預期，這使得美聯儲在做出利率決策時面臨複雜局面，因為它需要在疲弱的就業報告與中東衝突引發的油價通脹風險之間權衡。</p>
<p>根據勞工部勞工統計局週五發佈的數據，非農就業人數上個月減少了 92,000 個職位，此前 1 月份的增幅被下調至 126,000 個。</p>
<p>路透社調查的經濟學家預計，非農就業人數將在 1 月份報告的 130,000 個職位增幅基礎上增加約 59,000 個職位。</p>
<p>失業率為 4.4%，高於預期的 4.3%。</p>
<p>經濟學家表示，只有當失業率攀升至大約 4.5% 以上時，勞動力市場的擔憂才會加劇。</p>
<p>2 月份的數據顯示與預期相比顯著不及，經濟學家的預測範圍從減少 9,000 個職位到增加多達 125,000 個職位不等。</p>
<p>金融市場對低於預期的就業數據反應消極。</p>
<p>與道瓊斯工業平均指數相關的期貨下跌了 366 點，約 0.7%；標準普爾 500 期貨下跌 0.8%，納斯達克 100 期貨下跌約 1%。</p>
<p>在英國，富時 100 指數下跌了 1%，創下自 2 月 6 日以來的最低水平。</p>
<p>https://twitter.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2029914768317034635</p>
<h2>罷工和天氣導致的勞動力市場干擾</h2>
<p>部分疲軟反映了臨時性干擾，包括大約 31,000 名凱瑟醫療集團的醫療工作者罷工和當月的不利天氣條件。</p>
<p>由於罷工，醫療行業的就業人數下降，而信息行業和聯邦政府的職位持續下降。</p>
<p>經濟學家還指出，2 月份的下降是在 1 月份異常強勁的招聘之後發生的，這表明部分下降可能代表了早期增長後的正常化。</p>
<p>1 月份的就業增長受到勞工統計局出生與死亡模型更新的推動，該模型估算了企業開關時創造或失去的職位數量。</p>
<p>影響加州和夏威夷工人的醫療罷工已結束，這可能有助於未來幾個月的就業反彈。</p>
<p>儘管招聘數據疲軟，但工資增長強於預期。</p>
<p>平均時薪在本月上漲了 0.4%，同比增長 3.8%，均比經濟學家的預測高出約 0.1 個百分點。</p>
<h2>修訂加深對就業動能的擔憂</h2>
<p>最新報告還包括對前幾個月的向下修訂，增加了對就業增長基本速度的擔憂。</p>
<p>12 月份的就業數據被修訂為減少 17,000 個職位，而不是之前報告的增加 48,000 個。</p>
<p>1 月份的就業增長也略微下調，新增職位修訂為 126,000 個，而不是 130,000 個。</p>
<p>在經歷了 2025 年的困難後，勞動力市場似乎正在穩定，當時由於特朗普總統在緊急貿易權力下實施的廣泛關税，招聘放緩。</p>
<p>“我認為這只是告訴我們，勞動力市場正在穩定的希望，可能太過樂觀，” 舊金山聯邦儲備銀行行長瑪麗·達利在接受 CNBC 採訪時表示。</p>
<p>“我們還有通脹高於目標和油價上漲。我們不知道這種情況會持續多久，但我們的兩個目標現在都面臨風險。”</p>
<h2>其他因素影響勞動力市場前景</h2>
<p>其他因素也在影響勞動力市場前景。</p>
<p>勞工統計局最近納入了由於去年的 43 天政府關門而延遲的更新人口控制。</p>
<p>與此同時，更嚴格的移民政策減少了勞動力供應，導致勞動力增長放緩。</p>
<p>根據人口普查局的數據，截至 2025 年 6 月，美國人口僅增長了 180 萬人，或 0.5%，達到 3.418 億。</p>
<h2>為什麼美聯儲可能仍會維持基準利率</h2>
<p>通常，這樣疲弱的報告會引發市場對美聯儲降息的預期。</p>
<p>然而，中東危機和油價飆升使情況變得複雜。</p>
<p>由於中東緊張局勢推高汽油價格並增加通脹風險，政策制定者普遍預計將在 3 月 17 日至 18 日的下次會議上維持利率不變，將基準利率保持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的區間內。</p>
<p>“2 月份的就業報告出現了大幅負面意外，失去職位和失業率上升，提醒我們勞動力市場風險並未消失，” Carson Group 首席宏觀策略師 Sonu Varghese 表示。</p>
<p>“與此同時，通脹已經高企，即使在即將到來的能源價格衝擊和與人工智能相關的瓶頸之前。這將使美聯儲在降息方面保持謹慎——我們不太可能很快看到降息。”</p>
<p>美國就業報告顯示 92K 下降，但這就是美聯儲可能仍會維持利率的原因，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

國泰標普500ETF

美國經紀商&證券交易所 ETF - iShares

金融業 ETF - Vanguard

<p>美國勞動力市場在二月份出現降温跡象，非農就業人數意外減少了 92,000 個職位，失業率上升至 4.4%。這一疲弱的就業報告使得美聯儲在利率決策上面臨更大複雜性，尤其是在由於中東緊張局勢導致燃料價格上漲的通脹壓力下。儘管就業人數下降，工資增長卻強於預期，平均時薪增長了 0.4%。金融市場對此反應消極，主要指數下跌。由於這些通脹風險，美聯儲在即將召開的會議上可能會維持利率不變</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772806492.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1772806492.png"/></p>
<p>The US labor market showed signs of cooling in February after nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell, and unemployment also came a notch higher than expected, complicating the picture for the Fed ahead of its rate decision as it weighs a weak jobs report against the fuel price-led inflationary risks caused by the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國勞動力市場在 2 月份出現降温跡象，非農就業人數意外下降，失業率也高於預期，這使得美聯儲在做出利率決策時面臨複雜局面，因為它需要在疲弱的就業報告與中東衝突引發的油價通脹風險之間權衡。</p>
</div><p>Nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 jobs last month, following a downwardly revised increase of 126,000 in January, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據勞工部勞工統計局週五發佈的數據，非農就業人數上個月減少了 92,000 個職位，此前 1 月份的增幅被下調至 126,000 個。</p>
</div><p>Economists polled by Reuters had expected payrolls to rise by about 59,000 jobs after January’s previously reported gain of 130,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社調查的經濟學家預計，非農就業人數將在 1 月份報告的 130,000 個職位增幅基礎上增加約 59,000 個職位。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, compared with expectations of 4.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失業率為 4.4%，高於預期的 4.3%。</p>
</div><p>Economists say concerns about the labor market would intensify only if the jobless rate climbs above roughly 4.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家表示，只有當失業率攀升至大約 4.5% 以上時，勞動力市場的擔憂才會加劇。</p>
</div><p>The February figure marked a significant miss compared with expectations, with economists’ forecasts ranging from a loss of 9,000 jobs to a gain of as many as 125,000 positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月份的數據顯示與預期相比顯著不及，經濟學家的預測範圍從減少 9,000 個職位到增加多達 125,000 個職位不等。</p>
</div><p>Financial markets reacted negatively to the weaker-than-expected employment data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融市場對低於預期的就業數據反應消極。</p>
</div><p>Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 366 points, or about 0.7%, while S&amp;P 500 futures dropped 0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined around 1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與道瓊斯工業平均指數相關的期貨下跌了 366 點，約 0.7%；標準普爾 500 期貨下跌 0.8%，納斯達克 100 期貨下跌約 1%。</p>
</div><p>In the UK, the FTSE 100 dropped by 1%, its lowest level since February 6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在英國，富時 100 指數下跌了 1%，創下自 2 月 6 日以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>https://twitter.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2029914768317034635</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>https://twitter.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2029914768317034635</p>
</div><h2>Labor market disruption from strikes and weather</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>罷工和天氣導致的勞動力市場干擾</h2>
</div><p>Part of the weakness reflected temporary disruptions, including a strike involving roughly 31,000 healthcare workers at Kaiser Permanente and adverse weather conditions during the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分疲軟反映了臨時性干擾，包括大約 31,000 名凱瑟醫療集團的醫療工作者罷工和當月的不利天氣條件。</p>
</div><p>Employment in the healthcare sector declined as a result of the strike, while jobs in the information sector and the federal government continued to trend lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於罷工，醫療行業的就業人數下降，而信息行業和聯邦政府的職位持續下降。</p>
</div><p>Economists also noted that February’s decline followed unusually strong hiring in January, suggesting some of the drop may represent a normalization after earlier gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家還指出，2 月份的下降是在 1 月份異常強勁的招聘之後發生的，這表明部分下降可能代表了早期增長後的正常化。</p>
</div><p>January’s payroll growth was boosted by updates to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ birth-and-death model, which estimates the number of jobs created or lost as businesses open and close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月份的就業增長受到勞工統計局出生與死亡模型更新的推動，該模型估算了企業開關時創造或失去的職位數量。</p>
</div><p>The healthcare strike affecting workers in California and Hawaii has since ended, which could help employment rebound in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影響加州和夏威夷工人的醫療罷工已結束，這可能有助於未來幾個月的就業反彈。</p>
</div><p>Despite the weak hiring data, wage growth came in stronger than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管招聘數據疲軟，但工資增長強於預期。</p>
</div><p>Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in the month and were up 3.8% from a year earlier, both about 0.1 percentage point higher than economists had forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均時薪在本月上漲了 0.4%，同比增長 3.8%，均比經濟學家的預測高出約 0.1 個百分點。</p>
</div><h2>Revisions deepen concerns about job momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>修訂加深對就業動能的擔憂</h2>
</div><p>The latest report also included downward revisions to prior months, adding to concerns about the underlying pace of job growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新報告還包括對前幾個月的向下修訂，增加了對就業增長基本速度的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>December’s payroll figures were revised to show a loss of 17,000 jobs rather than the previously reported gain of 48,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月份的就業數據被修訂為減少 17,000 個職位，而不是之前報告的增加 48,000 個。</p>
</div><p>January’s employment growth was also trimmed slightly, with payroll gains revised down to 126,000 from 130,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月份的就業增長也略微下調，新增職位修訂為 126,000 個，而不是 130,000 個。</p>
</div><p>The labor market has appeared to be stabilizing after a difficult 2025, when hiring slowed amid uncertainty tied to sweeping tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump under emergency trade powers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了 2025 年的困難後，勞動力市場似乎正在穩定，當時由於特朗普總統在緊急貿易權力下實施的廣泛關税，招聘放緩。</p>
</div><p>“I think it just tells us that the hopes that the labor market was steadying, maybe that was too much,” Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, told CNBC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我認為這只是告訴我們，勞動力市場正在穩定的希望，可能太過樂觀，” 舊金山聯邦儲備銀行行長瑪麗·達利在接受 CNBC 採訪時表示。</p>
</div><p>“We also have inflation printing above target and oil prices rising. How long they last, we don’t know, but both of our goals are at risks now.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們還有通脹高於目標和油價上漲。我們不知道這種情況會持續多久，但我們的兩個目標現在都面臨風險。”</p>
</div><h2>Additional factors weighing on labour market outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>其他因素影響勞動力市場前景</h2>
</div><p>Additional factors are also weighing on the labor market outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他因素也在影響勞動力市場前景。</p>
</div><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently incorporated updated population controls that had been delayed due to last year’s 43-day government shutdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勞工統計局最近納入了由於去年的 43 天政府關門而延遲的更新人口控制。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, tighter immigration policies have reduced labor supply, contributing to slower workforce growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，更嚴格的移民政策減少了勞動力供應，導致勞動力增長放緩。</p>
</div><p>According to the Census Bureau, the US population grew by just 1.8 million people, or 0.5%, to 341.8 million in the year ending June 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據人口普查局的數據，截至 2025 年 6 月，美國人口僅增長了 180 萬人，或 0.5%，達到 3.418 億。</p>
</div><h2>Why the Federal Reserve might still hold benchmark rate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼美聯儲可能仍會維持基準利率</h2>
</div><p>Normally, such a weak report would trigger expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，這樣疲弱的報告會引發市場對美聯儲降息的預期。</p>
</div><p>However, the Middle East crisis and the surge in oil prices have complicated the situation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，中東危機和油價飆升使情況變得複雜。</p>
</div><p>With Middle East tensions pushing gasoline prices higher and raising inflation risks, policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their next meeting on March 17–18, maintaining the benchmark rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於中東緊張局勢推高汽油價格並增加通脹風險，政策制定者普遍預計將在 3 月 17 日至 18 日的下次會議上維持利率不變，將基準利率保持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的區間內。</p>
</div><p>“The February payroll report saw a big negative surprise with job losses and a higher unemployment rate, a reminder that labor market risks haven’t disappeared,&#34; said Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“2 月份的就業報告出現了大幅負面意外，失去職位和失業率上升，提醒我們勞動力市場風險並未消失，” Carson Group 首席宏觀策略師 Sonu Varghese 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;At the same time, inflation is already elevated even before the upcoming energy price shock and AI-related bottlenecks. That’s going to stay the Fed’s hand when it comes to interest rate cuts - it’s unlikely we see cuts anytime soon.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“與此同時，通脹已經高企，即使在即將到來的能源價格衝擊和與人工智能相關的瓶頸之前。這將使美聯儲在降息方面保持謹慎——我們不太可能很快看到降息。”</p>
</div><p>The post US jobs report shows 92K drop, but here's why Fed may still hold rates appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國就業報告顯示 92K 下降，但這就是美聯儲可能仍會維持利率的原因，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

US jobs report shows 92K drop, but here's why Fed may still hold rates

- 美國 2 月非農就業人數下降 92,000，失業率上升至 4.4%。  
- 市場對低於預期的就業數據反應負面，主要因中東局勢推高油價。  
- 儘管招聘疲軟，但薪資增長超預期，可能影響美聯儲利率決策。

invezz

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2 倍做多納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做空納指 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空納斯達克指數 ETF - ProShares

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納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - Invesco

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美國就業報告顯示減少 92K，但這就是為什麼美聯儲可能仍然維持利率不變的原因