<p>TradingKey - 新興市場今年表現亮眼：除了曾一度飆升 40% 的韓國 KOSPI 指數外，巴西的 BVSP 指數年初至今上漲近 20%，南非的基準 SAALL 指數也上漲了約 10%。</p>
<p>然而，自美國與伊朗衝突爆發以來，MSCI 亞太指數本週下跌了 6%，這一跌幅遠大於同期標普 500 指數的跌幅，表明全球資本正在加速回流美國。</p>
<p>今年早些時候流行的 “賣出美國，買入亞洲” 交易策略是否已經過時？美國與伊朗的衝突是否會徹底逆轉 2026 年新興市場的強勁反彈？</p>
<h2>原油飆升：能源進口依賴壓制亞洲股市</h2>
<p>分析師認為，亞洲股市承壓的主要原因是亞洲國家普遍依賴中東原油。彭博經濟學顯示，中國、印度和印度尼西亞是全球最大的石油進口國。根據高盛的估計，每 20% 的布倫特原油價格上漲將使亞洲企業的盈利下降約 2%。</p>
<p>此外，由於油價上漲迅速反映在汽油和柴油等產品的成本中，而能源消費在消費者物價指數（CPI）中佔有較高權重，油價上漲直接推高了整體通脹，從而對亞洲經濟造成衝擊。</p>
<p>Natixis SA 的亞太首席經濟學家 Alicia Garcia-Herrero 指出，日本和韓國的油價壓力尤為嚴重，因其超過 60% 的石油進口必須經過霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
<p>相比之下，美國對中東石油的直接依賴相對有限。作為全球最大的石油生產國，美國的日均原油產量遠超傳統重磅國家俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯。高產量緩解了中東供應波動帶來的干擾。</p>
<p>此外，這一衝擊的影響已擴展至運輸、建築、金融和國防等行業。因此，航運保險費飆升，鋁和鋼等建築材料的成本上升，國防訂單的預期也有所增加。這些因素在亞洲市場的不同領域產生了不同的影響。</p>
<h2>美元霸權迴歸，擊碎亞洲央行降息希望</h2>
<p>在這場衝突中，美國因國內石油自給自足而受到的影響較小，顯示出其經濟韌性。這增強了全球資本流入美元作為避險資產的動力，成為美元走強的最直接原因。</p>
<p>強勢美元壓制了亞洲各地的本幣：韓元近期首次突破 1500 關口，為 2009 年以來首次。日元作為避險資產，其避險吸引力因過去一年近 5% 的波動性而減弱。再加上能源和通脹風險加劇，日元進一步下跌，跌至每美元 157 的水平。</p>
<p>貶值的匯率限制了當地央行降息的空間。根據彭博彙編的數據，市場對韓國銀行在未來 12 個月內累計加息的預期已從約 25 個基點大幅上調至約 50 個基點。此外，疲軟的本幣也對企業盈利預期造成了壓力。</p>
<p>Gama Asset Management 的全球宏觀投資組合經理 Rajeev de Mello 表示，貨幣寬鬆空間的縮小將抑制股市情緒，因為投資者對新興市場的過於樂觀情緒開始減退。</p>
<h2>“買入亞洲” 的熱潮是否已結束？</h2>
<p>Alphinity Investment Management 的客户投資組合經理 Elfreda Jonker 指出，目前日本和韓國股市的急劇回調並非僅由油價上漲引發的能源擔憂所致。</p>
<p>年初至今，日經 225 指數上漲了 16%，韓國股市在此次回調前上漲了 40%。Jonker 認為，由於亞洲股市在今年早些時候獲得了顯著漲幅，導致估值高企和倉位擁擠，因此在衝擊來臨時變得更加脆弱。</p>
<p>然而，這一下跌並不代表基本面惡化。在韓國股市回調約 20% 後，瑞銀將其評級上調至 “吸引”，並指出韓國半導體制造商仍有望實現強勁的盈利增長。瑞銀表示，在供應短缺的情況下，DRAM 現貨價格預計到 2027 年下半年將接近每 Gb 1.7 美元，支持半導體制造商的盈利。</p>
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<p>亞洲股市因美伊衝突面臨拋售，MSCI 亞太指數本週下跌 6%，與標準普爾 500 指數的小幅下跌形成對比。分析師將此歸因於亞洲國家對中東石油的依賴，導致成本和通脹上升。受益於國內石油生產的強勢美元進一步施壓亞洲貨幣，限制了中央銀行降息的選擇。儘管近期出現下跌，一些分析師認為基本面依然強勁，特別是在半導體等行業，可能會支持未來的增長</p>

<p>TradingKey - Emerging markets have shone this year: in addition to the South Korean KOSPI index, which surged as much as 40% at one point, Brazil's BVSP index has gained nearly 20% year-to-date, and South Africa's benchmark SAALL index has risen about 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 新興市場今年表現亮眼：除了曾一度飆升 40% 的韓國 KOSPI 指數外，巴西的 BVSP 指數年初至今上漲近 20%，南非的基準 SAALL 指數也上漲了約 10%。</p>
</div><p>However, since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has slumped 6% this week, a far greater decline than that of the S&amp;P 500 over the same period, indicating that global capital is accelerating its return to the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自美國與伊朗衝突爆發以來，MSCI 亞太指數本週下跌了 6%，這一跌幅遠大於同期標普 500 指數的跌幅，表明全球資本正在加速回流美國。</p>
</div><p>Has the &#34;Sell US, Buy Asia&#34; trading strategy, which was popular earlier this year, become obsolete? Will the US-Iran conflict completely reverse the strong rally in emerging markets seen in 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年早些時候流行的 “賣出美國，買入亞洲” 交易策略是否已經過時？美國與伊朗的衝突是否會徹底逆轉 2026 年新興市場的強勁反彈？</p>
</div><h2>Crude Oil Surges: Energy Import Dependency Weighs on Asian Equities</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油飆升：能源進口依賴壓制亞洲股市</h2>
</div><p>Analysts believe the primary reason for the pressure on Asian equities is the widespread dependence of Asian nations on Middle Eastern crude oil. Bloomberg Economics shows that China, India, and Indonesia are among the world's largest oil importers. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, every 20% increase in Brent crude prices drags down Asian corporate earnings by approximately 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師認為，亞洲股市承壓的主要原因是亞洲國家普遍依賴中東原油。彭博經濟學顯示，中國、印度和印度尼西亞是全球最大的石油進口國。根據高盛的估計，每 20% 的布倫特原油價格上漲將使亞洲企業的盈利下降約 2%。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, because rising oil prices are quickly reflected in the costs of products like gasoline and diesel—and energy consumption holds a high weighting in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—higher oil prices directly push up headline inflation, thereby dealing a blow to Asian economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，由於油價上漲迅速反映在汽油和柴油等產品的成本中，而能源消費在消費者物價指數（CPI）中佔有較高權重，油價上漲直接推高了整體通脹，從而對亞洲經濟造成衝擊。</p>
</div><p>Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Chief Asia-Pacific Economist at Natixis SA, pointed out that Japan and South Korea, where oil pressure is particularly acute, will bear the brunt as more than 60% of their oil imports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Natixis SA 的亞太首席經濟學家 Alicia Garcia-Herrero 指出，日本和韓國的油價壓力尤為嚴重，因其超過 60% 的石油進口必須經過霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
</div><p>In contrast, the United States' direct reliance on Middle Eastern oil is quite limited. As the world's largest oil producer, U.S. daily crude output significantly exceeds that of traditional heavyweights Russia and Saudi Arabia. High production levels have mitigated the disruptions caused by supply fluctuations in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，美國對中東石油的直接依賴相對有限。作為全球最大的石油生產國，美國的日均原油產量遠超傳統重磅國家俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯。高產量緩解了中東供應波動帶來的干擾。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the impact of this shock has extended beyond energy costs to sectors such as transportation, construction, finance, and defense. Consequently, shipping insurance premiums have soared, the costs of construction materials like aluminum and steel have risen, and expectations for defense orders have increased. These factors have had varying effects across different sectors of Asian markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，這一衝擊的影響已擴展至運輸、建築、金融和國防等行業。因此，航運保險費飆升，鋁和鋼等建築材料的成本上升，國防訂單的預期也有所增加。這些因素在亞洲市場的不同領域產生了不同的影響。</p>
</div><h2>Dollar Hegemony Returns, Shattering Asian Central Banks' Rate-Cut Hopes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元霸權迴歸，擊碎亞洲央行降息希望</h2>
</div><p>In this conflict, the United States, benefiting from domestic oil self-sufficiency, has suffered less impact than oil-importing nations, demonstrating its economic resilience. This has strengthened the momentum for global capital to flow into the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, serving as the most direct cause of the greenback's strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這場衝突中，美國因國內石油自給自足而受到的影響較小，顯示出其經濟韌性。這增強了全球資本流入美元作為避險資產的動力，成為美元走強的最直接原因。</p>
</div><p>The stronger dollar has suppressed local currencies across Asia: the Korean Won recently breached the 1,500 level against the dollar for the first time since 2009. The Japanese Yen, also a safe-haven asset, has seen its safe-haven appeal diminish due to excessive volatility following a nearly 5% decline over the past year. Coupled with amplified energy and inflation risks, the Yen fell further, hitting the 157 per dollar level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>強勢美元壓制了亞洲各地的本幣：韓元近期首次突破 1500 關口，為 2009 年以來首次。日元作為避險資產，其避險吸引力因過去一年近 5% 的波動性而減弱。再加上能源和通脹風險加劇，日元進一步下跌，跌至每美元 157 的水平。</p>
</div><p>Depreciating exchange rates have limited the scope for local central banks to cut rates. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, market expectations for cumulative interest rate hikes by the Bank of Korea over the next 12 months have been significantly revised upward from about 25 basis points to approximately 50 basis points. Furthermore, weakening local currencies are also weighing on corporate earnings forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貶值的匯率限制了當地央行降息的空間。根據彭博彙編的數據，市場對韓國銀行在未來 12 個月內累計加息的預期已從約 25 個基點大幅上調至約 50 個基點。此外，疲軟的本幣也對企業盈利預期造成了壓力。</p>
</div><p>Rajeev de Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at Gama Asset Management, stated that the narrowing scope for monetary easing will dampen stock market sentiment, as the previously over-optimistic sentiment among investors regarding emerging markets begins to fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gama Asset Management 的全球宏觀投資組合經理 Rajeev de Mello 表示，貨幣寬鬆空間的縮小將抑制股市情緒，因為投資者對新興市場的過於樂觀情緒開始減退。</p>
</div><h2>Has the &#34;Buy Asia&#34; Craze Come to an End?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>“買入亞洲” 的熱潮是否已結束？</h2>
</div><p>Elfreda Jonker, Client Portfolio Manager at Alphinity Investment Management, pointed out that the current sharp pullbacks in Japanese and South Korean stock markets were not solely caused by energy concerns triggered by rising oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphinity Investment Management 的客户投資組合經理 Elfreda Jonker 指出，目前日本和韓國股市的急劇回調並非僅由油價上漲引發的能源擔憂所致。</p>
</div><p>Year-to-date, the Nikkei 225 had risen 16% and Korean stocks had gained 40% before this recent slump. Jonker believes that because Asian equities saw significant gains earlier this year, resulting in high valuations and crowded positioning, they became more vulnerable when the shocks hit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年初至今，日經 225 指數上漲了 16%，韓國股市在此次回調前上漲了 40%。Jonker 認為，由於亞洲股市在今年早些時候獲得了顯著漲幅，導致估值高企和倉位擁擠，因此在衝擊來臨時變得更加脆弱。</p>
</div><p>However, this decline does not represent a deterioration in fundamentals. After a correction of approximately 20% in the South Korean stock market, UBS upgraded its rating to &#34;Attractive,&#34; citing expectations that South Korean semiconductor manufacturers will still achieve strong earnings growth. UBS stated that amid supply shortages, DRAM spot prices are expected to nearly double to $1.7 per Gb by the second half of 2027, supporting the earnings of semiconductor makers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這一下跌並不代表基本面惡化。在韓國股市回調約 20% 後，瑞銀將其評級上調至 “吸引”，並指出韓國半導體制造商仍有望實現強勁的盈利增長。瑞銀表示，在供應短缺的情況下，DRAM 現貨價格預計到 2027 年下半年將接近每 Gb 1.7 美元，支持半導體制造商的盈利。</p>
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Is the Market No Longer ‘Buying Asia’? Why Asian Stocks Face Selloff Amid US-Iran Conflict While US Stocks Become a Safe Haven?

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市場不再 ‘買入亞洲’ 了嗎？為何在美伊衝突期間，亞洲股市遭遇拋售，而美國股市卻成為避險天堂？