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<p>全球石油市場因霍爾木茲海峽關鍵供應路線的中斷而陷入動盪，導致油價急劇上漲，不同原油等級、成品油和期貨合約之間的價差擴大。</p>
<p>布倫特原油與西德克薩斯中質原油（WTI）之間的價格差異最近擴大，達到每桶 9 美元的峯值。</p>
<p>這是一個顯著的差距，自 2022 年夏季以來未曾超過。</p>
<p>此比較特別排除了在商品合約從一個到期月份滾動到下一個月份時可能發生的臨時市場 “扭曲”。</p>
<h2>供需差異</h2>
<p>價差的擴大表明兩大全球油基準之間的供需動態或區域市場認知存在分歧，布倫特相對較強，而 WTI 相對較弱。</p>
<p>“原因在於，作為國際基準，布倫特油價受到中東供應中斷的影響大於 WTI 油價，” 德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）的商品分析師卡斯滕·弗裏茨（Carsten Fritsch）在一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>“後者也受到美國高油產量的制約。”</p>
<p>裂解價差，即原油與其成品油之間的價格差異，也出現了急劇上升。</p>
<p>具體而言，根據德國商業銀行的數據，歐洲的柴油裂解價差達到了自 2023 年 8 月以來的最高點，超過每桶 40 美元。</p>
<p>“這是因為原油供應減少，已經導致亞洲煉油廠的原油加工受到限制，這意味着可生產和出口的油品減少，” 弗裏茨補充道。</p>
<h2>柴油和航空燃料裂解價差</h2>
<p>來自海灣地區的油品交付也受到干擾。</p>
<p>“因此，歐洲必須更加依賴美國來滿足其進口需求，而美國的柴油價格也顯著上漲，” 弗裏茨指出。</p>
<p>美國柴油與 WTI 之間的裂解價差已上升至每桶約 70 美元，部分原因是航空燃料價格的急劇上漲。</p>
<p>航空燃料的價格顯著高於布倫特原油，幾乎達到每噸 900 美元，摺合每桶約 100 美元。</p>
<p>對航空燃料區域供應的擔憂導致航空燃料裂解價差發生了最顯著的變化。</p>
<p>全球約 23% 的海運航空燃料貿易通過霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
<p>其他地區的煉油廠也將因原油供應中斷而被迫降低開工率。</p>
<p>“這將進一步收緊航空燃料和更廣泛的成品油市場，” ING 集團的分析師在一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>“在霍爾木茲海峽流量恢復的跡象出現之前，很難看到最近的高水平和裂解價差的波動消失。”</p>
<h2>原油和柴油裂解價差</h2>
<p>此外，本週原油和柴油的時間價差顯著擴大，意味着它們各自遠期曲線上的價格差異顯著增加。</p>
<p>前兩個布倫特遠期合約之間的價差為每桶 4.5 美元。</p>
<p>此外，根據德國商業銀行的數據，最近到期合約與一年期遠期合約之間的價格差異超過每桶 15 美元。</p>
<p>柴油的遠期曲線顯示前兩個合約之間的差異為每噸 80 美元。</p>
<p>下一個到期合約與一年期遠期合約之間的價差顯著擴大至每噸約 400 美元。</p>
<p>布倫特和柴油的即期交付價格溢價自 2022 年春夏以來未曾如此之高，此時正值烏克蘭戰爭開始之際。</p>
<p>“這表明由於伊朗戰爭導致的供應緊張情況，” 弗裏茨補充道。</p>
<p>與此同時，持續的供應擔憂因中國指示煉油廠停止柴油和汽油出口而加劇，這進一步支持了週四的成品油裂解價差。</p>
<p>2025 年，中國出口了 800 萬噸汽油和 670 萬噸柴油。</p>
<p>擔憂在於其他國家可能會實施類似措施。</p>
<p>“考慮到印度在供應擔憂中採取保護主義措施的歷史，預計印度採取類似行動並不為過（儘管更多是在食品和農業市場），” ING 分析師表示。</p>
<p>“這將進一步推動中間餾分油的上漲。”</p>
<p>油市動盪擴大布倫特-WTI 差距，推動柴油和航空燃料裂解價差的文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

能源業 ETF - SPDR

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

<p>全球石油市場因霍爾木茲海峽的供應中斷而陷入動盪，布倫特原油與 WTI 原油之間的價格差距顯著擴大，目前達到每桶 9 美元。這個差距反映了供需動態的分歧，布倫特原油受到中東地區中斷的影響更大。此外，柴油和航空燃料的裂解價差飆升，柴油價格比 WTI 高出每桶 70 美元。分析師預測，直到霍爾木茲海峽的供應恢復，精煉產品市場將持續波動</p>

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<p>Global oil markets were thrown into turmoil as disruptions to critical supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to surge dramatically, widening price gaps between different crude grades, refined products, and futures contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球石油市場因霍爾木茲海峽關鍵供應路線的中斷而陷入動盪，導致油價急劇上漲，不同原油等級、成品油和期貨合約之間的價差擴大。</p>
</div><p>The price differential between Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has recently expanded, reaching a peak of $9 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油與西德克薩斯中質原油（WTI）之間的價格差異最近擴大，達到每桶 9 美元的峯值。</p>
</div><p>This is a significant gap, which has not been surpassed since the summer of 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個顯著的差距，自 2022 年夏季以來未曾超過。</p>
</div><p>This comparison specifically excludes temporary market &#34;distortions&#34; that can occur when commodity contracts are rolled over from one expiry month to the next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此比較特別排除了在商品合約從一個到期月份滾動到下一個月份時可能發生的臨時市場 “扭曲”。</p>
</div><h2>Divergence in supply-demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>供需差異</h2>
</div><p>The widening spread suggests a divergence in the supply-demand dynamics or regional market perceptions between the two global oil benchmarks, with Brent being relatively stronger and WTI being relatively weaker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價差的擴大表明兩大全球油基準之間的供需動態或區域市場認知存在分歧，布倫特相對較強，而 WTI 相對較弱。</p>
</div><p>“The reason for this is that, as an international benchmark, the Brent oil price is more affected by supply disruptions from the Middle East than the WTI oil price,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said in a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“原因在於，作為國際基準，布倫特油價受到中東供應中斷的影響大於 WTI 油價，” 德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）的商品分析師卡斯滕·弗裏茨（Carsten Fritsch）在一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>“The latter is also being held back by high US oil production.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“後者也受到美國高油產量的制約。”</p>
</div><p>Crack spreads, which are the price differences between crude oil and its refined products, also saw a sharp increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>裂解價差，即原油與其成品油之間的價格差異，也出現了急劇上升。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, the gasoil crack spread in Europe reached its highest point since August 2023, peaking at over $40 per barrel, according to Commerzbank’s data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具體而言，根據德國商業銀行的數據，歐洲的柴油裂解價差達到了自 2023 年 8 月以來的最高點，超過每桶 40 美元。</p>
</div><p>“This is because the reduced availability of crude oil is already leading to restrictions on crude oil processing in refineries in Asia, which means that fewer oil products can be produced and exported,” Fritsch added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這是因為原油供應減少，已經導致亞洲煉油廠的原油加工受到限制，這意味着可生產和出口的油品減少，” 弗裏茨補充道。</p>
</div><h2>Diesel and jet fuel cracks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>柴油和航空燃料裂解價差</h2>
</div><p>Deliveries of oil products from the Gulf region have also been interrupted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來自海灣地區的油品交付也受到干擾。</p>
</div><p>“Europe must therefore cover its import needs even more heavily from the US, where diesel has also become significantly more expensive,” Fritsch noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“因此，歐洲必須更加依賴美國來滿足其進口需求，而美國的柴油價格也顯著上漲，” 弗裏茨指出。</p>
</div><p>The crack spread for US diesel versus WTI has risen to approximately $70 per barrel, driven in part by the sharp increase in jet fuel prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國柴油與 WTI 之間的裂解價差已上升至每桶約 70 美元，部分原因是航空燃料價格的急劇上漲。</p>
</div><p>The price of jet fuel is notably high, commanding a premium over Brent crude of nearly $900 per ton, which translates to about $100 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空燃料的價格顯著高於布倫特原油，幾乎達到每噸 900 美元，摺合每桶約 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>Concerns regarding the regional supply of jet fuel have led to the most significant changes in jet fuel cracks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對航空燃料區域供應的擔憂導致航空燃料裂解價差發生了最顯著的變化。</p>
</div><p>Approximately 23% of the worldwide seaborne jet fuel trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球約 23% 的海運航空燃料貿易通過霍爾木茲海峽。</p>
</div><p>Refiners in other regions will also be forced to reduce their run rates due to disruptions in their crude supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他地區的煉油廠也將因原油供應中斷而被迫降低開工率。</p>
</div><p>“This will further tighten the jet fuel and broader refined-product markets,” analysts at ING Group said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這將進一步收緊航空燃料和更廣泛的成品油市場，” ING 集團的分析師在一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>“It is difficult to see the recently elevated levels and volatility in cracks disappear until there are signs of an imminent resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在霍爾木茲海峽流量恢復的跡象出現之前，很難看到最近的高水平和裂解價差的波動消失。”</p>
</div><h2>Crude and gasoil cracks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油和柴油裂解價差</h2>
</div><p>Additionally, this week saw a significant widening of the time spreads for both crude oil and gasoil, meaning the price differentials across their respective forward curves increased notably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，本週原油和柴油的時間價差顯著擴大，意味着它們各自遠期曲線上的價格差異顯著增加。</p>
</div><p>The spread between the first two Brent forward contracts stands at $4.5 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前兩個布倫特遠期合約之間的價差為每桶 4.5 美元。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, the difference in price between the nearest expiring contract and the one-year forward contract exceeds $15 per barrel, according to Commerzbank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，根據德國商業銀行的數據，最近到期合約與一年期遠期合約之間的價格差異超過每桶 15 美元。</p>
</div><p>The forward curve for gasoil shows a difference of $80 per ton between the first two contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>柴油的遠期曲線顯示前兩個合約之間的差異為每噸 80 美元。</p>
</div><p>The spread widens significantly to approximately $400 per ton between the next due contract and the one-year forward contract.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一個到期合約與一年期遠期合約之間的價差顯著擴大至每噸約 400 美元。</p>
</div><p>The price premiums for immediate deliveries of Brent and gasoil have not been higher since the spring and summer of 2022, which followed the beginning of the war in Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特和柴油的即期交付價格溢價自 2022 年春夏以來未曾如此之高，此時正值烏克蘭戰爭開始之際。</p>
</div><p>“This points to a tighter supply situation due to the war in Iran,” Fritsch added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這表明由於伊朗戰爭導致的供應緊張情況，” 弗裏茨補充道。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, ongoing supply concerns were exacerbated by China's directive for refiners to halt the export of diesel and gasoline, which provided additional support to refined product cracks on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，持續的供應擔憂因中國指示煉油廠停止柴油和汽油出口而加劇，這進一步支持了週四的成品油裂解價差。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, China exported 8 million tonnes of gasoline and 6.7 million tonnes of diesel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年，中國出口了 800 萬噸汽油和 670 萬噸柴油。</p>
</div><p>The concern is the potential for other nations to implement similar measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>擔憂在於其他國家可能會實施類似措施。</p>
</div><p>“It would not be unreasonable to expect India to make a similar move, given its track record of taking protectionist measures amid supply concerns (though more so in food and agri markets),” ING analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“考慮到印度在供應擔憂中採取保護主義措施的歷史，預計印度採取類似行動並不為過（儘管更多是在食品和農業市場），” ING 分析師表示。</p>
</div><p>“This would provide further upside to middle distillates.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這將進一步推動中間餾分油的上漲。”</p>
</div><p>The post Oil turmoil widens Brent-WTI gap, drives diesel, jet fuel cracks appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油市動盪擴大布倫特-WTI 差距，推動柴油和航空燃料裂解價差的文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
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石油市場的動盪擴大了布倫特原油與 WTI 原油的價差，並推動了柴油和航空燃料的裂解價差