<p>[新加坡] 週一（3 月 9 日），整個亞洲市場大幅下跌，韓國和日本的指數領跌，投資者對中東衝突加劇和油價上漲的影響感到愈發緊張。</p><p>海峽時報指數（STI）一度下跌 3.1%，隨後收窄部分損失，最終下跌 1.9%。吉隆坡綜合指數下跌 2.6%，而雅加達證券交易所綜合指數在當地時間下午 4 點時下跌 3.3%，泰國的 SET50 指數下跌 2.3%。</p><p>油價突破每桶 100 美元——這是自 2022 年中俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來的最高水平——西德克薩斯中質油上漲 29%，超過 117 美元。布倫特原油也上漲了 28%，達到 118.73 美元，創下近六年來的最大漲幅。</p><p>“地緣政治風險溢價飆升，” OCBC 集團研究首席經濟學家 Selena Ling 表示，並補充説衝突的持續時間和任何潛在的穩定措施將是關鍵。</p><p>由於新加坡作為小型開放的淨進口國，暴露於原油和液化天然氣價格之中，目前的衝突可能會產生與海灣戰爭相當的影響，甚至更大。</p><p>“通脹存在明顯的上行風險，” Ling 表示。她指出，雖然戰爭前的基本情況假設油價為 63 美元，但如果持續平均在 92 美元，通脹將推高至 1.8%。</p><p>她警告説，隨着價格現在遠高於這一水平，如果油價飆升持續，新加坡消費者價格指數甚至可能超過 2%，即使石油的實際權重相對較低。這主要是由於對物流和運輸以及其他供應鏈的連鎖反應。</p><p>OCBC 在週一的一份報告中指出，持續的價格壓力可能迫使新加坡金融管理局 “早於預期” 收緊貨幣政策，挑戰之前的寬鬆前景。</p><p>然而，該銀行強調，新加坡的財政狀況在該地區仍然是 “最靈活” 的，如果成本飆升，仍有充足的空間來部署支持措施，如家庭公用事業補貼。</p><p>新加坡也可能看到一些潛在的好處。由於其安全的 AAA 評級中立和財富中心地位，財富流動正在從中東多樣化到新加坡，Ling 表示，預計可再生投資將更大力度推動綠色經濟。</p><p>能源公司在週一普遍受益。Rex International 收盤上漲 6.6%，而 RH PetroGas 上漲 28.6%。Geo Energy Resources 開盤上漲 5.4%，但收盤時下跌 2.2%。</p><p>除了能源外，衝突在航空業中也造成了潛在的分歧。雖然新加坡航空週一下跌 2.4%，面臨因噴氣燃料成本飆升而導致的利潤壓縮，但 OCBC 認為地面服務商 SATS 可能會受益，儘管其下跌了 3.8%。</p><p>該銀行認為，霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖可能迫使時間敏感的貿易從海上轉向空中，推動航空貨運量上升。ST Engineering 等國防公司也預計將受到結構性更高安全支出的支持。</p><p>在亞洲其他地區，香港的恒生指數當天下跌 1.4%，而上海的 CSI 300 收盤下跌 1%。</p><p>日本的日經 225 指數收盤下跌 5.2%，而東證指數下跌 3.8%。韓國的 Kospi 指數暴跌 6%，澳大利亞的 ASX 200 指數當天收盤下跌 2.9%。</p><h2>東南亞影響</h2><p>除了潛在的財富流入外，新加坡還可能受益於更強的貨幣，而馬來西亞的淨油出口地位也可能提供一些保護。</p><p>研究公司 BMI 在週五對 24 個新興市場評估美國 - 以色列 - 伊朗衝突的影響時，給予其第五低的風險評分。其研究考察了各市場因霍爾木茲海峽的有效封閉而導致的貿易中斷、貿易條件和外部狀況等因素。</p><p>馬來西亞等石油出口國可能會 “因天然氣價格上漲而獲得意外之財，” 報告指出。相反，菲律賓等國最有可能面臨貨幣貶值和國際收支壓力。</p><p>中國大陸在風險評分中排名第十，其後是泰國、菲律賓和印度尼西亞。由於泰國的能源赤字高達其國內生產總值的 4%，該國被標記為受影響最大的市場之一。</p><p>OCBC 還指出，政策後果可能對新加坡的鄰國造成嚴重影響。它警告稱，如果油價飆升至 140 美元的 “急性” 情景，可能會使該地區的降息計劃擱置。相反，菲律賓和印度尼西亞的中央銀行可能被迫加息 25 個基點，以捍衞其貨幣並抑制通脹，風險是經濟放緩加劇。</p><p>與此同時，花旗分析師在週一指出，來自中東衝突的油氣價格上漲將對大多數亞洲大型經濟體造成滯漲衝擊。</p><p>最顯著的影響將體現在泰國、菲律賓、日本、韓國和印度等地——這些地方 “依賴” 中東原油或液化天然氣，且能源進口依賴度最高，花旗表示。同時，像馬來西亞和在一定程度上印度尼西亞這樣的淨能源出口國則 “相對緩衝”。</p><p>德意志銀行在週五也指出，儘管大多數亞洲經濟體 “已將對伊朗石油的依賴降至微不足道的水平”，但仍然容易受到油價上漲帶來的通脹和增長衝擊。</p><p>OCBC 在週一表示，亞洲貨幣也受到影響，並根據其對油價和市場風險的具體暴露情況出現分化。韓元和菲律賓比索似乎最為脆弱，面臨來自高能源成本和投資者焦慮的 “雙重打擊”。同樣，印尼盧比也因昂貴的石油進口而受到壓制。</p><p>相反，馬來西亞林吉特受到該國石油出口的支撐，有助於抵消更廣泛的市場波動，而人民幣和新加坡元則保持最強韌。</p>

REX國際

富時新加坡海峽時報指數

常青石油天然氣

<p>3 月 9 日，亞太市場普遍下跌，海峽時報指數下跌 1.9%，因地緣政治緊張局勢導致油價超過每桶 100 美元。分析師警告新加坡面臨通脹風險，消費者價格可能上漲超過 2%。像 REX 國際和常青石油天然氣這樣的能源股票上漲，而航空和其他行業面臨挑戰。馬來西亞可能會受益於更高的天然氣價格，而菲律賓等國可能會經歷貨幣壓力。形勢仍然不穩定，可能對貨幣政策和區域經濟產生影響</p>

<p>[SINGAPORE] Wider Asia markets tumbled on Monday (Mar 9), with South Korean and Japan indices leading losses,as investors grow increasingly nervous about the impact of a widening Middle East conflict and rising oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新加坡] 週一（3 月 9 日），整個亞洲市場大幅下跌，韓國和日本的指數領跌，投資者對中東衝突加劇和油價上漲的影響感到愈發緊張。</p>
</div><p>The Straits Times Index (STI) fell as much as 3.1 per cent before paring some losses to close 1.9 per cent down. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index was down 2.6 per cent, while the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index declined3.3 per cent as at 4 pm local time and Thailand’s SET50 index fell 2.3 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海峽時報指數（STI）一度下跌 3.1%，隨後收窄部分損失，最終下跌 1.9%。吉隆坡綜合指數下跌 2.6%，而雅加達證券交易所綜合指數在當地時間下午 4 點時下跌 3.3%，泰國的 SET50 指數下跌 2.3%。</p>
</div><p>Prices of oil climbed past US$100 a barrel – the highest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in mid-2022 – as West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 29 per cent at more than US$117. Brent crude also surged as much as 28 per cent to US$118.73, in what was its biggest jump in nearly six years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價突破每桶 100 美元——這是自 2022 年中俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來的最高水平——西德克薩斯中質油上漲 29%，超過 117 美元。布倫特原油也上漲了 28%，達到 118.73 美元，創下近六年來的最大漲幅。</p>
</div><p>“The geopolitical risk premiums have spiked,” said Selena Ling, chief economist and head of OCBC Group Research, adding that the duration of the conflict and any potential stabilisation action will be key.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“地緣政治風險溢價飆升，” OCBC 集團研究首席經濟學家 Selena Ling 表示，並補充説衝突的持續時間和任何潛在的穩定措施將是關鍵。</p>
</div><p>With Singapore exposed to crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices as a small open net importer, the current conflict could have as big of an impact as much as the Gulf War did, if not more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於新加坡作為小型開放的淨進口國，暴露於原油和液化天然氣價格之中，目前的衝突可能會產生與海灣戰爭相當的影響，甚至更大。</p>
</div><p>“There is definite upside risk to inflation,” said Ling. She noted that while the pre-war base case assumed oil at US$63, a sustained average of US$92 would push inflation to 1.8 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通脹存在明顯的上行風險，” Ling 表示。她指出，雖然戰爭前的基本情況假設油價為 63 美元，但如果持續平均在 92 美元，通脹將推高至 1.8%。</p>
</div><p>With prices now well above that level, the Singapore consumer price index could even shoot up beyond 2 per cent if the oil price surge is sustained, she warned, even if the weight of physical petroleum is relatively low. This would largely be due to knock-on effects on logistics and transport, as well as other supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她警告説，隨着價格現在遠高於這一水平，如果油價飆升持續，新加坡消費者價格指數甚至可能超過 2%，即使石油的實際權重相對較低。這主要是由於對物流和運輸以及其他供應鏈的連鎖反應。</p>
</div><p>Sustained price pressure could force the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten monetary policy “earlier rather than later”, challenging the previous outlook for easing, OCBC noted in a separate report on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OCBC 在週一的一份報告中指出，持續的價格壓力可能迫使新加坡金融管理局 “早於預期” 收緊貨幣政策，挑戰之前的寬鬆前景。</p>
</div><p>However, the bank emphasised that Singapore’s fiscal position remains the “most flexible” in the region, with ample room to deploy support measures like utilities rebates for households if costs spiral.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，該銀行強調，新加坡的財政狀況在該地區仍然是 “最靈活” 的，如果成本飆升，仍有充足的空間來部署支持措施，如家庭公用事業補貼。</p>
</div><p>Singapore could also see some potential benefits. Wealth flows are being diversified from the Middle East to Singapore due to its safe, AAA-rated neutral and wealth hub status, said Ling, with a likely greater push into the green economy by renewable investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡也可能看到一些潛在的好處。由於其安全的 AAA 評級中立和財富中心地位，財富流動正在從中東多樣化到新加坡，Ling 表示，預計可再生投資將更大力度推動綠色經濟。</p>
</div><p>Energy players largely enjoyed a booston Monday. Rex International closed 6.6 per cent up, while RH PetroGas surged 28.6 per cent. Geo Energy Resources opened 5.4 per cent higher, but was down 2.2 per cent at close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源公司在週一普遍受益。Rex International 收盤上漲 6.6%，而 RH PetroGas 上漲 28.6%。Geo Energy Resources 開盤上漲 5.4%，但收盤時下跌 2.2%。</p>
</div><p>Beyond energy, the conflict has created a potential divide in the aviation sector. While carriers like Singapore Airlines , which fell 2.4 per cent on Monday, face margin compression from soaring jet fuel costs, OCBC identified ground handler SATS as a potential beneficiary, though it fell 3.8 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了能源外，衝突在航空業中也造成了潛在的分歧。雖然新加坡航空週一下跌 2.4%，面臨因噴氣燃料成本飆升而導致的利潤壓縮，但 OCBC 認為地面服務商 SATS 可能會受益，儘管其下跌了 3.8%。</p>
</div><p>The bank argued that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could force time-sensitive trade to shift from sea to air, driving up air freight volumes. Defence counters like ST Engineering are also expected to see support from structurally higher security spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該銀行認為，霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖可能迫使時間敏感的貿易從海上轉向空中，推動航空貨運量上升。ST Engineering 等國防公司也預計將受到結構性更高安全支出的支持。</p>
</div><p>In the rest of Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.4 per cent over the day and the CSI 300 in Shanghai closed 1 per cent lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在亞洲其他地區，香港的恒生指數當天下跌 1.4%，而上海的 CSI 300 收盤下跌 1%。</p>
</div><p>Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 5.2 per cent at close, while the Topix dropped 3.8 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi slumped 6 per cent and Australia’s ASX 200 ended the day 2.9 per cent lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的日經 225 指數收盤下跌 5.2%，而東證指數下跌 3.8%。韓國的 Kospi 指數暴跌 6%，澳大利亞的 ASX 200 指數當天收盤下跌 2.9%。</p>
</div><h2>South-east Asia impact</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>東南亞影響</h2>
</div><p>Beyond the potential inflow of wealth, Singapore may also benefit from a stronger currency, while Malaysia’s net oil export status could also prove to be some protection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了潛在的財富流入外，新加坡還可能受益於更強的貨幣，而馬來西亞的淨油出口地位也可能提供一些保護。</p>
</div><p>Research firm BMI on Friday gave it the fifth-lowest risk score when measuring the impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on 24 emerging markets. Its research examined factors such as each market’s trade disruption due to the effectively shut Strait of Hormuz, terms of trade and external position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>研究公司 BMI 在週五對 24 個新興市場評估美國 - 以色列 - 伊朗衝突的影響時，給予其第五低的風險評分。其研究考察了各市場因霍爾木茲海峽的有效封閉而導致的貿易中斷、貿易條件和外部狀況等因素。</p>
</div><p>Oil exporters such as Malaysia could “receive a windfall from higher gas prices”, said the note. Conversely, countries such as the Philippines are most likely to face downward pressure on their currencies and strains in their balance of payments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬來西亞等石油出口國可能會 “因天然氣價格上漲而獲得意外之財，” 報告指出。相反，菲律賓等國最有可能面臨貨幣貶值和國際收支壓力。</p>
</div><p>Mainland China was 10th in terms of risk score, followed by Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia. Thailand was flagged as one of the markets with the greatest impact, owing to the country having an energy deficit as large as 4 per cent of its gross domestic product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國大陸在風險評分中排名第十，其後是泰國、菲律賓和印度尼西亞。由於泰國的能源赤字高達其國內生產總值的 4%，該國被標記為受影響最大的市場之一。</p>
</div><p>OCBC also noted that policy fallout could be severe for Singapore’s neighbours. It warned that an “acute” scenario, where oil spikes towards US$140, would likely take rate cuts off the table for the region. Instead, central banks in the Philippines and Indonesia could be forced to hike rates by 25 basis points to defend their currencies and curb inflation, risking a sharper economic slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OCBC 還指出，政策後果可能對新加坡的鄰國造成嚴重影響。它警告稱，如果油價飆升至 140 美元的 “急性” 情景，可能會使該地區的降息計劃擱置。相反，菲律賓和印度尼西亞的中央銀行可能被迫加息 25 個基點，以捍衞其貨幣並抑制通脹，風險是經濟放緩加劇。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile,Citi analysts on Monday noted that higher oil and gas prices from the Middle East conflict are set to be a stagflationary shock for most of Asia’s large economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，花旗分析師在週一指出，來自中東衝突的油氣價格上漲將對大多數亞洲大型經濟體造成滯漲衝擊。</p>
</div><p>The most significant hit will be felt in places such as Thailand, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea and India – where there is “dependence” on Middle Eastern crude or liquefied natural gas, and import‑intensive energy mixes are highest, said Citi. At the same time, net energy exporters like Malaysia and, to a degree, Indonesia are “comparatively cushioned”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最顯著的影響將體現在泰國、菲律賓、日本、韓國和印度等地——這些地方 “依賴” 中東原油或液化天然氣，且能源進口依賴度最高，花旗表示。同時，像馬來西亞和在一定程度上印度尼西亞這樣的淨能源出口國則 “相對緩衝”。</p>
</div><p>Deutsche Bank on Friday also noted that most Asian economies remain vulnerable to both inflation and growth shocks from higher oil prices even though they “have reduced their reliance on Iranian oil to negligible levels”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德意志銀行在週五也指出，儘管大多數亞洲經濟體 “已將對伊朗石油的依賴降至微不足道的水平”，但仍然容易受到油價上漲帶來的通脹和增長衝擊。</p>
</div><p>Asian currencies are also affected and are diverging based on their specific exposures to oil prices and market risk, said OCBC on Monday. The South Korean won and Philippine peso appear most vulnerable, facing a “double whammy” from both high energy costs and investor anxiety. Similarly, the Indonesian rupiah is weighed down by expensive oil imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OCBC 在週一表示，亞洲貨幣也受到影響，並根據其對油價和市場風險的具體暴露情況出現分化。韓元和菲律賓比索似乎最為脆弱，面臨來自高能源成本和投資者焦慮的 “雙重打擊”。同樣，印尼盧比也因昂貴的石油進口而受到壓制。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, the Malaysian ringgit is cushioned by the country’s oil exports, which help offset broader market volatility, while the Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar remain the most resilient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，馬來西亞林吉特受到該國石油出口的支撐，有助於抵消更廣泛的市場波動，而人民幣和新加坡元則保持最強韌。</p>
</div>

由於油價飆升，富時新加坡海峽時報指數、馬來西亞和印度尼西亞的股市下跌；分析師指出這對東南亞的影響