<p><em>文章作者：Kyle Soska</em> <em>文章編譯：Block unicorn</em></p>
<p>加密市場已經處於風險規避狀態數月，我一直在仔細研究各種市場數據，尋找市場可能反轉的跡象。在本文中，我將深入探討永續合約的市場結構，並利用 Ethena 透明度儀表板提供的數據分析市場風險偏好。</p>
<p>簡而言之：Ethena 的部署資本處於多年來的低點，僅為 2025 年低點的 71%。這並不是對 Ethena 的批評，而是反映了當前的市場狀況。方向性空頭頭寸幾乎等於方向性多頭頭寸，這在加密貨幣領域是極為罕見且歷史上不可持續的平衡。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050139163-412232.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050139163-412232.webp"/></p>
<p><em>(圖表：Ethena 機制示意圖)</em></p>
<p>根據永續合約的結構，每個多頭合約對應一個空頭合約，比例為 1:1。每個永續合約的未平倉合約代表雙方之間的現金流協議。</p>
<p>交易所的角色是促進這些合約的匹配，確保每個合約始終有資金充足的多頭和空頭持有者。下表説明了交易所促進交易的四種可能結果。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050157446-638652.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050157446-638652.webp"/></p>
<h3>永續合約匹配矩陣</h3>
<p>每筆交易都有買方和賣方。當合約的買方和賣方都是多頭或都是空頭時，交易所只是將合約的所有權從一方轉移到另一方。這種轉移不會創造或銷燬任何合約。當買方是多頭而賣方是空頭時，必須創建一個新合約，買方承擔多頭頭寸，賣方承擔空頭頭寸，未平倉合約增加一個。</p>
<p>...另一方面，如果賣方做多而買方做空，交易所可以直接終止雙方的合約並刪除新釋放的合約，未平倉合約減少一個。那麼，在典型市場中，實際持有這些合約的是什麼人呢？我認為合約持有者主要可以分為四類：[多頭] 方向性多頭頭寸 [空頭] 方向性空頭頭寸 / 對沖 a. 直接資產空頭頭寸 / 對沖 b. 結構化產品對沖 [空頭] 基差交易者（例如，Ethena）[混合] 永續合約套利者 方向性多頭尋求敞口。他們是風險尋求型投資者，其風險偏好取決於自身的風險承受能力。方向性空頭交易者包括希望承擔下行風險的投資者以及那些尋求有效對沖資產的投資者。風險投資家和以代幣支付的員工通常希望對當前價格解鎖的代幣進行對沖。在某些山寨幣的情況下，許多市場的交易量太小，無法有效進行直接對沖，甚至根本沒有。在這種情況下，像 Cumberland、Wintertermute、FalconX、Flowdesk 和 Amber 這樣的公司可以建立動態管理的合成頭寸，利用對比特幣和以太坊等多個高度相關的流動資產進行賣空，以對沖對流動性較差市場（如 Monad）的敞口。像 Neutrl 這樣的項目也採用這種策略，將這種對沖作為收益策略。基差交易者是機會主義的空頭。他們對方向性風險敞口不感興趣，而是積極填補市場供需失衡時對方向性多頭頭寸的過剩需求。在大多數市場機制下，多頭需求超過空頭需求，多頭頭寸的角色是彌合價格差異。他們的頭寸規模通常高度靈活。永續合約套利者同時持有永續合約的多頭和空頭頭寸。他們的角色是連接不同的永續合約，並糾正任何小的價格差異，成本不超過交易費用。他們的多頭頭寸可以在任何給定時刻與空頭頭寸完美匹配。根據構造，所有永續合約都是 1:1 的比例，多頭頭寸與空頭頭寸完美匹配。因此，我們知道：方向性多頭 + 套利多頭 = 方向性空頭 + 基差空頭 + 套利空頭。此外，永續合約套利的結構告訴我們：套利多頭 = 套利空頭。從第一個方程中取消這個項，我們得到：方向性多頭 = 方向性空頭 + 基差空頭。Ethena 為我們提供了所有基差空頭頭寸的代理指標，這有助於我們更深入地理解方向性多頭和空頭頭寸之間的差異。以下圖表是 Ethena 自報的資產負債表，按現金和部署資本細分，涵蓋 2024 年 12 月 27 日至 2026 年 3 月 7 日的期間：（圖表：Ethena 資產負債表 2024-2026）在 “解放日” 期間，下降持續。在此期間，Ethena 的部署資本從超過 50 億美元暴跌至約 11.08 億美元，下降超過 75%。值得注意的是，Ethena 的部署資本可以作為市場上過剩多頭需求程度的參考指標。雖然 Ethena 並不是唯一參與這種交易的機構，但其龐大的規模（有時約佔 Binance 和 Bybit 的 25%）意味着，在充足的現金情況下，他們將擴大頭寸以滿足任何未滿足的多頭需求。這表明，儘管到 2025 年 4 月總的多頭需求可能沒有下降 75%，但未針對空頭回補的過剩需求確實減少了 75%。下圖顯示了 Ethena 的資產負債表部署相對於其總規模的情況，以及其在 2025 年的最低和最高值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050190078-229551.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050190078-229551.webp"/></p>
<p><em>(圖表：Ethena 部署比較)</em></p>
<p>觀察當前市場，Ethena 在所有市場（BTC、ETH、SOL、BNB、XRP、HYPE）的總部署僅約為 7.91 億美元。這相當於 2025 年最低值的 71%，僅佔 10 月 10 日之前最高值的 12.9%。這個數字並不是對 Ethena 的否定，而是反映了當前市場狀況：淨多頭需求處於歷史低位。</p>
<p>... 特別值得注意的是，Ethena 在市場崩盤時部署了超過 20 億美元，當時比特幣價格暴跌至 6 萬美元。自僅一個月前的 2026 年 2 月 8 日以來，Ethena 的部署資本驚人地減少了 60%！下圖放大顯示了自今年 1 月以來 Ethena 的部署資本與比特幣價格的變化，説明了這一點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050205736-672897.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050205736-672897.webp"/></p>
<p><em>(圖表：Ethena 的部署資本與比特幣價格變化 2026)</em></p>
<p>自比特幣價格跌至 6 萬美元以來，Ethena 的基礎頭寸已縮減超過 60%，從超過 20 億美元降至不足 8 億美元。這一變化令人困惑，因為在此期間市場相對穩定。</p>
<p><em><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp"/></em></p>
<p><em>(圖表：未平倉合約和資金費率趨勢)</em></p>
<p>在我看來，真相主要由因素 1 和因素 2 決定，而因素 3 的影響微乎其微。如上圖所示，在以太坊項目撤回期間，比特幣（及其他主要加密貨幣）的整體未平倉合約保持相對穩定。同時，資金費率持續為負，許多加密貨幣（如 SOL）在多個交易所的累計資金費率為負。這表明市場對做空或對沖某些風險敞口的需求在增加。</p>
<p><em><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp"/></em></p>
<p><em>在我看來，真相主要由因素 1 和因素 2 決定，而因素 3 的影響微乎其微。</em></p>

GLXY

COIN

RIOT

<p>目前，加密貨幣市場處於風險規避狀態，Ethena 的部署資本處於多年來的低點，反映了整體市場情況。多頭和空頭頭寸之間的平衡在歷史上是不可持續的。Ethena 對永續合約的分析顯示，市場結構的多頭與空頭合約比例為 1:1，表明投資者之間存在風險尋求與對沖策略的複雜互動。Ethena 的資本從超過 50 億美元下降至約 11.08 億美元，突顯了市場上多頭需求的過剩</p>

<p><em>Article Author: Kyle Soska</em> <em>Article Compilation: Block unicorn</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>文章作者：Kyle Soska</em> <em>文章編譯：Block unicorn</em></p>
</div><p>The crypto market has been in a risk-off state for several months, and I have been carefully studying various market data, looking for signs that the market may be turning around. In this article, I will delve into the market structure of perpetual futures and analyze market risk appetite using data provided by the Ethena Transparency Dashboard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密市場已經處於風險規避狀態數月，我一直在仔細研究各種市場數據，尋找市場可能反轉的跡象。在本文中，我將深入探討永續合約的市場結構，並利用 Ethena 透明度儀表板提供的數據分析市場風險偏好。</p>
</div><p>In short: Ethena's deployed capital is at a multi-year low, only 71% of the low point in 2025. This is not a criticism of Ethena, but rather reflects the current market situation. Directional short positions are almost equal to directional long positions, which is an extremely rare and historically unsustainable balance in the cryptocurrency space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡而言之：Ethena 的部署資本處於多年來的低點，僅為 2025 年低點的 71%。這並不是對 Ethena 的批評，而是反映了當前的市場狀況。方向性空頭頭寸幾乎等於方向性多頭頭寸，這在加密貨幣領域是極為罕見且歷史上不可持續的平衡。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050139163-412232.webp" alt="" original-src="https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050139163-412232.webp"/></p>
<p><em>(Chart: Ethena Mechanism Illustration)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(圖表：Ethena 機制示意圖)</em></p>
</div><p>According to the structure of perpetual contracts, each long contract corresponds to one short contract, with a 1:1 ratio. The open interest of each perpetual contract represents a cash flow agreement between the two parties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據永續合約的結構，每個多頭合約對應一個空頭合約，比例為 1:1。每個永續合約的未平倉合約代表雙方之間的現金流協議。</p>
</div><p>The exchange's role is to facilitate the matching of these contracts, ensuring that each contract always has a well-funded long and short holder. The table below illustrates the four possible outcomes of the exchange facilitating the trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易所的角色是促進這些合約的匹配，確保每個合約始終有資金充足的多頭和空頭持有者。下表説明了交易所促進交易的四種可能結果。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050157446-638652.webp" alt="" original-src="https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050157446-638652.webp"/></p>
<h3>Perpetual Contract Matching Matrix</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>永續合約匹配矩陣</h3>
</div><p>Each trade has a buyer and a seller. When both the buyer and seller of a contract are long or both are short, the exchange simply transfers ownership of the contract from one party to the other. This transfer does not create or destroy any contracts. When the buyer is long and the seller is short, a new contract must be created, with the buyer assuming the long position and the seller assuming the short position, increasing the open interest by one contract.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每筆交易都有買方和賣方。當合約的買方和賣方都是多頭或都是空頭時，交易所只是將合約的所有權從一方轉移到另一方。這種轉移不會創造或銷燬任何合約。當買方是多頭而賣方是空頭時，必須創建一個新合約，買方承擔多頭頭寸，賣方承擔空頭頭寸，未平倉合約增加一個。</p>
</div><p>... On the other hand, if the seller goes long and the buyer goes short, the exchange can directly terminate the contracts of both parties and delete the newly released contracts, reducing the open interest by one contract. So, in a typical market, who are the actual holders of these contracts? I believe contract holders can be mainly divided into four categories: [Long] Directional Long Positions [Short] Directional Short Positions / Hedging a. Direct Asset Short Positions / Hedging b. Structured Product Hedging [Short] Basis Traders (e.g., Ethena) [Hybrid] Perpetual Contract Arbitrageurs Directional longs seek exposure. They are risk-seeking investors whose risk appetite depends on their own risk tolerance. Directional short traders include investors looking to take on downside risk as well as those seeking to hedge their assets tax-efficiently. Venture capitalists and employees paid in tokens often want to hedge tokens unlocked at current prices. In the case of altcoins, many markets have too little trading volume for effective direct hedging, or even none at all. In such cases, companies like Cumberland, Wintertermute, FalconX, Flowdesk, and Amber can build dynamically managed synthetic positions, using short selling of multiple highly correlated liquid assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to hedge exposure to less liquid markets (such as Monad). Projects like Neutrl also employ this strategy, using such hedging as a yield strategy. Basis traders are opportunistic short sellers. They are not interested in directional risk exposure, but rather actively fill excess demand for directional long positions when market supply and demand are imbalanced. Under most market mechanisms, long demand exceeds short demand, and the role of long positions is to bridge price differences. Their position sizes are typically highly flexible. Perpetual contract arbitrageurs simultaneously hold both long and short positions in perpetual contracts. Their role is to connect different perpetual contracts and correct for any minor price discrepancies at a cost not exceeding transaction fees. Their long positions can be perfectly matched with their short positions at any given time. According to the construction, all perpetual contracts are in a 1:1 ratio, with long positions perfectly matched to short positions. Therefore, we know: Directional Long + Arbitrage Long = Directional Short + Basis Short + Arbitrage Short. Furthermore, the structure of perpetual contract arbitrage tells us: Arbitrage Long = Arbitrage Short. Canceling this term from the first equation, we get: Directional Long = Directional Short + Basis Short. Ethena provides us with a proxy indicator for all basis short positions, which helps us gain a deeper understanding of the differences between directional long and short positions. The following chart is Ethena's self-reported balance sheet, broken down by cash and deployed capital, covering the period from December 27, 2024 to March 7, 2026: (Chart: Ethena Balance Sheet 2024-2026) The decline continued during the &#34;liberation day&#34; period in the month. During this period, Ethena's deployed capital plummeted from over $5 billion to just around $1.108 billion, a drop of over 75%. It's important to note that Ethena's deployed capital can serve as a reference indicator of the extent of excess long demand in the market. While Ethena is not the only institution engaging in such trading, its sheer size (sometimes around 25% of Binance and Bybit) means that, given ample cash, they will expand their positions to meet any unmet long demand. This suggests that while total long demand may not have decreased by 75% by April 2025, excess demand not being targeted for short covering has indeed decreased by 75%. The chart below shows Ethena's balance sheet deployment relative to its total size, its lowest and highest values ​​in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>...另一方面，如果賣方做多而買方做空，交易所可以直接終止雙方的合約並刪除新釋放的合約，未平倉合約減少一個。那麼，在典型市場中，實際持有這些合約的是什麼人呢？我認為合約持有者主要可以分為四類：[多頭] 方向性多頭頭寸 [空頭] 方向性空頭頭寸 / 對沖 a. 直接資產空頭頭寸 / 對沖 b. 結構化產品對沖 [空頭] 基差交易者（例如，Ethena）[混合] 永續合約套利者 方向性多頭尋求敞口。他們是風險尋求型投資者，其風險偏好取決於自身的風險承受能力。方向性空頭交易者包括希望承擔下行風險的投資者以及那些尋求有效對沖資產的投資者。風險投資家和以代幣支付的員工通常希望對當前價格解鎖的代幣進行對沖。在某些山寨幣的情況下，許多市場的交易量太小，無法有效進行直接對沖，甚至根本沒有。在這種情況下，像 Cumberland、Wintertermute、FalconX、Flowdesk 和 Amber 這樣的公司可以建立動態管理的合成頭寸，利用對比特幣和以太坊等多個高度相關的流動資產進行賣空，以對沖對流動性較差市場（如 Monad）的敞口。像 Neutrl 這樣的項目也採用這種策略，將這種對沖作為收益策略。基差交易者是機會主義的空頭。他們對方向性風險敞口不感興趣，而是積極填補市場供需失衡時對方向性多頭頭寸的過剩需求。在大多數市場機制下，多頭需求超過空頭需求，多頭頭寸的角色是彌合價格差異。他們的頭寸規模通常高度靈活。永續合約套利者同時持有永續合約的多頭和空頭頭寸。他們的角色是連接不同的永續合約，並糾正任何小的價格差異，成本不超過交易費用。他們的多頭頭寸可以在任何給定時刻與空頭頭寸完美匹配。根據構造，所有永續合約都是 1:1 的比例，多頭頭寸與空頭頭寸完美匹配。因此，我們知道：方向性多頭 + 套利多頭 = 方向性空頭 + 基差空頭 + 套利空頭。此外，永續合約套利的結構告訴我們：套利多頭 = 套利空頭。從第一個方程中取消這個項，我們得到：方向性多頭 = 方向性空頭 + 基差空頭。Ethena 為我們提供了所有基差空頭頭寸的代理指標，這有助於我們更深入地理解方向性多頭和空頭頭寸之間的差異。以下圖表是 Ethena 自報的資產負債表，按現金和部署資本細分，涵蓋 2024 年 12 月 27 日至 2026 年 3 月 7 日的期間：（圖表：Ethena 資產負債表 2024-2026）在 “解放日” 期間，下降持續。在此期間，Ethena 的部署資本從超過 50 億美元暴跌至約 11.08 億美元，下降超過 75%。值得注意的是，Ethena 的部署資本可以作為市場上過剩多頭需求程度的參考指標。雖然 Ethena 並不是唯一參與這種交易的機構，但其龐大的規模（有時約佔 Binance 和 Bybit 的 25%）意味着，在充足的現金情況下，他們將擴大頭寸以滿足任何未滿足的多頭需求。這表明，儘管到 2025 年 4 月總的多頭需求可能沒有下降 75%，但未針對空頭回補的過剩需求確實減少了 75%。下圖顯示了 Ethena 的資產負債表部署相對於其總規模的情況，以及其在 2025 年的最低和最高值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050190078-229551.webp" alt="" original-src="https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050190078-229551.webp"/></p>
<p><em>(Chart: Ethena Deployment Comparison)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(圖表：Ethena 部署比較)</em></p>
</div><p>Observing the current market, Ethena's total deployment across all markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, HYPE) is only around $791 million. This is equivalent to 71% of the lowest value in 2025 and only 12.9% of the highest value before October 10th. This figure is not a negation of Ethena, but rather reflects the current market situation: net long demand is at a historical low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>觀察當前市場，Ethena 在所有市場（BTC、ETH、SOL、BNB、XRP、HYPE）的總部署僅約為 7.91 億美元。這相當於 2025 年最低值的 71%，僅佔 10 月 10 日之前最高值的 12.9%。這個數字並不是對 Ethena 的否定，而是反映了當前市場狀況：淨多頭需求處於歷史低位。</p>
</div><p>... Of particular note is that Ethena deployed over $2 billion during the market crash when Bitcoin's price plummeted to $60,000. Since just one month ago, on February 8, 2026, Ethena's deployed capital has decreased by a staggering 60%! The chart below, enlarged to show Ethena's deployed capital and Bitcoin's price movement since January of this year, illustrates this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>... 特別值得注意的是，Ethena 在市場崩盤時部署了超過 20 億美元，當時比特幣價格暴跌至 6 萬美元。自僅一個月前的 2026 年 2 月 8 日以來，Ethena 的部署資本驚人地減少了 60%！下圖放大顯示了自今年 1 月以來 Ethena 的部署資本與比特幣價格的變化，説明了這一點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050205736-672897.webp" alt="" original-src="https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050205736-672897.webp"/></p>
<p><em>(Chart: Ethena's Deployed Capital vs. Bitcoin Price Movement 2026)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(圖表：Ethena 的部署資本與比特幣價格變化 2026)</em></p>
</div><p>Since the price of Bitcoin fell to $60,000, Ethena's basis position has shrunk by more than 60%, from over $2 billion to less than $800 million. This change is puzzling, as the market has been relatively stable during this period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自比特幣價格跌至 6 萬美元以來，Ethena 的基礎頭寸已縮減超過 60%，從超過 20 億美元降至不足 8 億美元。這一變化令人困惑，因為在此期間市場相對穩定。</p>
</div><p><em><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp" alt="" original-src="https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp"/></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp" alt="" original-src="https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp"/></em></p>
</div><p><em>(Chart: Open Interest and Funding Rate Trends)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(圖表：未平倉合約和資金費率趨勢)</em></p>
</div><p>In my opinion, the truth is mainly determined by Factor 1 and Factor 2, while the impact of Factor 3 is negligible. As shown in the chart above, during the period of Ethereum project withdrawal, the overall open interest of Bitcoin (and other major cryptocurrencies) remained relatively stable. At the same time, funding rates remained negative for an extended period, with many cryptocurrencies (such as SOL) having negative cumulative funding rates across multiple exchanges. This indicates an increasing demand in the market for shorting or hedging certain risk exposures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，真相主要由因素 1 和因素 2 決定，而因素 3 的影響微乎其微。如上圖所示，在以太坊項目撤回期間，比特幣（及其他主要加密貨幣）的整體未平倉合約保持相對穩定。同時，資金費率持續為負，許多加密貨幣（如 SOL）在多個交易所的累計資金費率為負。這表明市場對做空或對沖某些風險敞口的需求在增加。</p>
</div><p><em><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp" alt="" original-src="https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp"/></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp" alt="" original-src="https://admin2049.chaincatcher.info/upload/image/20260309/1773050218659-762995.webp"/></em></p>
</div><p><em>In my view, the truth is mainly determined by Factor 1 and Factor 2, while Factor 3 has a negligible impact.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>在我看來，真相主要由因素 1 和因素 2 決定，而因素 3 的影響微乎其微。</em></p>
</div>

What information does Ethena's price movement reveal about the cryptocurrency market?

- 加密市場風險偏好下降，Ethena 的部署資本降至多年來低點。  
- 市場的多頭需求處於歷史低位，僅為 2025 年最低點的 71%。  
- Ethena 在過去一個月資本大減 60%，顯示出市場不穩定的現狀。

Ethena 的價格變動揭示了加密貨幣市場的哪些信息？