<p>[倫敦] 在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭使房地產十年的繁榮突然中止五年後，另一個距離約 1600 英里以南的戰爭現在威脅着投資者一直期待的復甦。</p>
<p>美國和以色列對伊朗的攻擊使能源價格飆升，加大了一個對利率極為敏感的行業的風險。持續的衝突意味着更快的通貨膨脹將傳導至借貸成本。即使在戰爭爆發之前，儘管有一系列有利因素：直到本月利率逐漸下降；明顯的供應短缺；以及普遍上漲的租金，買家似乎對商業地產的投資案例並不感興趣。</p>
<p>根據普華永道和城市土地研究所於週二（3 月 10 日）發佈的一份報告，機構投資者首次降低了對該行業的目標配置，復甦的樂觀情緒並未 “與資本承諾相匹配”。</p>
<p>“我們與之交談的首席執行官和首席投資官們認為，今年終於是反彈的一年，” 城市土地研究所的研究與顧問副總裁西蒙·欽（Simon Chinn）表示。現在 “人們擔心復甦就像過去三年一樣——總是推遲 3 到 6 個月。”</p>
<p>對於本週在戛納舉行的 Mipim 房地產會議的行業來説，這是一種尷尬的背景，大家都渴望談論交易的前景。</p>
<p>根據 MSCI 的數據，2025 年最後一個季度完成的歐洲商業房地產交易總額為 715 億歐元（約合 1058 億新元），比去年同期下降了 9%。歐洲經濟疲軟和持續的高借貸成本意味着 2025 年並不是那些 “活到 25” 的標語所承諾的 “豐收年”，根據 MSCI 在 1 月發佈的報告。</p>
<p>“這是我們經歷過的最長、最糟糕的經濟低迷之一，” 海恩斯（Hines）全球首席投資官大衞·斯坦巴赫（David Steinbach）表示。“在持續的時間上，它比 08 年更糟。”</p>
<p>新年開始時，市場上出現了樂觀的跡象，似乎更大的交易可能在持續的停滯後重現。布魯克菲爾德（Brookfield）為位於倫敦金融區的負債累累的 CityPoint 辦公樓找到了買家，該樓在過去幾年中多次嘗試出售。但談判隨後破裂，使得這座大樓再次回到了尋找買家的獎盃物業名單上。</p>
<p>德文特倫敦（Derwent London）在 8 月以約 3 億英鎊（約合 5.137 億新元）出售位於帕丁頓區的布魯內爾大樓，但迄今尚未達成交易。</p>
<p>“我們希望確保如果我們出售它，能夠獲得一個好價格，” 首席執行官保羅·威廉姆斯（Paul Williams）表示。</p>
<p>那些仍在進行的交易在法國裏維埃拉麪臨緊張的一週，買家可能會尋求重新談判價格，以補償不確定性增加和潛在的更高借貸成本。賣家面臨的選擇是堅持希望戰爭迅速結束，復甦回到正軌，還是接受折扣以避免情況惡化的風險。</p>
<p>儘管關於空置率和租金增長的數據越來越令人鼓舞，但經濟低迷持續的部分原因是缺乏大型交易，這意味着基金經理向投資者返還的現金減少。這反過來影響了他們向新基金承諾資本的能力，即使他們有意重新進入房地產市場。</p>
<p>根據 Preqin 的數據，2025 年下半年為投資歐洲房地產籌集的資本約為 54 億美元，較 2024 年中期以來逐漸恢復的趨勢出現了急劇逆轉。</p>
<p>對於那些擁有資本的人來説，高度不穩定的地緣政治環境也在重新塑造關於最佳投資部署地點的討論。一個關鍵問題是他們在多大程度上重新考慮對美國的投資。</p>
<p>“投資者正在談論更多的本地投資，大家都在更靠近家鄉的地方待着，” 海恩斯的斯坦巴赫表示。雖然目前還沒有太多證據表明有重大轉變，“加拿大人是關鍵，他們正在向歐洲投入新的邊際美元，” 他説。</p>
<p>這一討論將在本週加劇，至少對於那些能夠順利前往法國南部的人來説。由於衝突的擴大，旅行中斷引發了全球一些最大的房地產投資者的出席問題，他們主要位於中東。</p>
<p>阿布扎比投資局的代表拒絕置評，而沙特阿拉伯公共投資基金和卡塔爾投資局則未對有關他們出席的問題作出回應。</p>
<p>“在我們期待歡迎全球房地產界人士來到戛納時，我們的思念與中東的朋友和同事同在，” Mipim 總監尼古拉斯·博菲（Nicolas Boffi）表示。“我們正在密切關注該地區不斷變化的局勢，並與我們的客户和合作夥伴保持對話。”</p>
<p>隨着戰爭進入第二週，目前評估對一個通常需要數月或數年才能對事件做出調整的資產類別的影響仍然為時尚早。但上市房地產公司的股價確實提供了交易者預期的早期跡象。</p>
<p>自戰爭爆發以來，FTSE 350 房地產投資信託指數下跌超過 10%，本週初的拋售加速。</p>
<p>公共市場首先反應，隨後再提問，格林街（Green Street）歐洲及亞太區研究負責人彼得·帕帕達科斯（Peter Papadakos）表示。</p>
<p>“這並不是説公共市場在拐點上更常正確，” 他在一封電子郵件中寫道。“它確實如此。在這方面，私營投資者今天應該比十天前更擔心未來 ‘26 年房地產價格的方向，毫無疑問。” BLOOMBERG</p>

<p>正在進行的伊朗衝突正在危及房地產市場的預期復甦，該市場自烏克蘭戰爭以來一直處於掙扎之中。能源價格上漲和通貨膨脹正在影響借貸成本，導致機構投資者自 2012 年以來首次減少對商業地產的配置。儘管最初對反彈持樂觀態度，但市場依然停滯，重大交易未能落實。即將在戛納舉行的 Mipim 房地產會議面臨不確定性，因為地緣政治緊張局勢可能影響與會人數和投資策略</p>

<p>[LONDON] Five years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought real estate’s decade-long party to a sudden halt, another war about 1,600 miles south is now threatening to choke off the recovery investors have been anticipating ever since.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[倫敦] 在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭使房地產十年的繁榮突然中止五年後，另一個距離約 1600 英里以南的戰爭現在威脅着投資者一直期待的復甦。</p>
</div><p>The US and Israel’s attack on Iran has sent energy prices soaring, heightening risks for an industry where valuations are hypersensitive to interest rates. A sustained conflict means faster inflation feeding through to borrowing costs. Even before the war broke out, buyers appeared unmoved by the investment case for commercial property despite a combination of tailwinds: rates that until this month had gradually been dwindling; a clear lack of supply; and, rents that are broadly on the rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國和以色列對伊朗的攻擊使能源價格飆升，加大了一個對利率極為敏感的行業的風險。持續的衝突意味着更快的通貨膨脹將傳導至借貸成本。即使在戰爭爆發之前，儘管有一系列有利因素：直到本月利率逐漸下降；明顯的供應短缺；以及普遍上漲的租金，買家似乎對商業地產的投資案例並不感興趣。</p>
</div><p>Institutional investors have reduced their target allocations to the sector for the first time since 2012, with optimism around a recovery not “matched by capital commitments,” according to a report published on Tuesday (Mar 10) by PwC and the Urban Land Institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據普華永道和城市土地研究所於週二（3 月 10 日）發佈的一份報告，機構投資者首次降低了對該行業的目標配置，復甦的樂觀情緒並未 “與資本承諾相匹配”。</p>
</div><p>“There was a view among the CEOs and chief investment officers that we spoke to that this is finally the year where we’re on the rebound,” said Simon Chinn, vice-president in research and advisory at the ULI. Now “there is a concern that the recovery is just like it has been for the last three years – always 3-to-6 months off.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們與之交談的首席執行官和首席投資官們認為，今年終於是反彈的一年，” 城市土地研究所的研究與顧問副總裁西蒙·欽（Simon Chinn）表示。現在 “人們擔心復甦就像過去三年一樣——總是推遲 3 到 6 個月。”</p>
</div><p>It is an awkward backdrop for an industry that this week is descending on Cannes for the Mipim property conference and eager to talk up the prospects for dealmaking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於本週在戛納舉行的 Mipim 房地產會議的行業來説，這是一種尷尬的背景，大家都渴望談論交易的前景。</p>
</div><p>Some 71.5 billion euros (S$105.8 billion) of European commercial real estate transactions were completed in the final quarter of 2025, down 9 per cent from the same period a year earlier, MSCI data show. Weaker European economies and sustained high borrowing costs meant 2025 was not “the vintage year promised by those “Survive ‘til 25” bumper stickers,” according to an MSCI report published in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 MSCI 的數據，2025 年最後一個季度完成的歐洲商業房地產交易總額為 715 億歐元（約合 1058 億新元），比去年同期下降了 9%。歐洲經濟疲軟和持續的高借貸成本意味着 2025 年並不是那些 “活到 25” 的標語所承諾的 “豐收年”，根據 MSCI 在 1 月發佈的報告。</p>
</div><p>“This is one of the longest, worst downturns we have had,” said David Steinbach, global chief investment officer at Hines. “It is worse than ‘08 in terms of how long it has gone on.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這是我們經歷過的最長、最糟糕的經濟低迷之一，” 海恩斯（Hines）全球首席投資官大衞·斯坦巴赫（David Steinbach）表示。“在持續的時間上，它比 08 年更糟。”</p>
</div><p>The year started with signs of optimism that bigger deals might be back on the horizon after a sustained hiatus. Brookfield found a buyer for CityPoint, the debt-laden office building in London’s financial district it has repeatedly attempted to offload in recent years. But the talks have since broken down, putting the tower back on the list of trophy properties looking for a buyer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新年開始時，市場上出現了樂觀的跡象，似乎更大的交易可能在持續的停滯後重現。布魯克菲爾德（Brookfield）為位於倫敦金融區的負債累累的 CityPoint 辦公樓找到了買家，該樓在過去幾年中多次嘗試出售。但談判隨後破裂，使得這座大樓再次回到了尋找買家的獎盃物業名單上。</p>
</div><p>Derwent London offered the Brunel Building in the city’s Paddington district for sale for about £300 million (S$513.7 million) in August but so far has yet to agree a deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德文特倫敦（Derwent London）在 8 月以約 3 億英鎊（約合 5.137 億新元）出售位於帕丁頓區的布魯內爾大樓，但迄今尚未達成交易。</p>
</div><p>“We would want to make sure that if we were to sell it, we get a good price,” chief executive officer Paul Williams said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們希望確保如果我們出售它，能夠獲得一個好價格，” 首席執行官保羅·威廉姆斯（Paul Williams）表示。</p>
</div><p>Those deals that are still on track face a nervous week on the French Riviera with the prospect that buyers seek to renegotiate prices lower to compensate for increased uncertainty and potentially higher borrowing costs. Sellers face the choice of holding out in the hope the war wraps up quickly and the recovery gets back on track, or accepting a discount to head off the risk things get worse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些仍在進行的交易在法國裏維埃拉麪臨緊張的一週，買家可能會尋求重新談判價格，以補償不確定性增加和潛在的更高借貸成本。賣家面臨的選擇是堅持希望戰爭迅速結束，復甦回到正軌，還是接受折扣以避免情況惡化的風險。</p>
</div><p>Part of the reason the downturn has been so drawn out, despite increasingly encouraging data on vacancies and rent growth, is that the lack of large deals has meant less cash is returned by fund managers to their investors. That in turn impacts their ability to commit capital to new funds, even if they’re inclined to get back into real estate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管關於空置率和租金增長的數據越來越令人鼓舞，但經濟低迷持續的部分原因是缺乏大型交易，這意味着基金經理向投資者返還的現金減少。這反過來影響了他們向新基金承諾資本的能力，即使他們有意重新進入房地產市場。</p>
</div><p>About US$5.4 billion of capital was raised for investment in European real estate in the second half of 2025, a sharp reversal of the gradual recovery that had been building since its nadir in mid-2024, according to Preqin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Preqin 的數據，2025 年下半年為投資歐洲房地產籌集的資本約為 54 億美元，較 2024 年中期以來逐漸恢復的趨勢出現了急劇逆轉。</p>
</div><p>For those that do have capital, the highly volatile geopolitical environment is also reshaping debates about where best to deploy it. A key question is the extent to which they rethink investments in the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於那些擁有資本的人來説，高度不穩定的地緣政治環境也在重新塑造關於最佳投資部署地點的討論。一個關鍵問題是他們在多大程度上重新考慮對美國的投資。</p>
</div><p>“Investors are talking about much more backyard investing, everyone has been staying much closer to home,” Hines’ Steinbach said. While there’s yet to be much evidence of any major shift, “Canadians are the swing and they were putting new marginal US dollars in Europe,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“投資者正在談論更多的本地投資，大家都在更靠近家鄉的地方待着，” 海恩斯的斯坦巴赫表示。雖然目前還沒有太多證據表明有重大轉變，“加拿大人是關鍵，他們正在向歐洲投入新的邊際美元，” 他説。</p>
</div><p>That debate will intensify this week, at least for those able to navigate their way to the south of France. Travel disruption caused by the widening conflict raises questions about the attendance of some of the largest real estate investors globally, who are based in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一討論將在本週加劇，至少對於那些能夠順利前往法國南部的人來説。由於衝突的擴大，旅行中斷引發了全球一些最大的房地產投資者的出席問題，他們主要位於中東。</p>
</div><p>A representative for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority declined to comment while Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and the Qatar Investment Authority did not respond to questions concerning their attendance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿布扎比投資局的代表拒絕置評，而沙特阿拉伯公共投資基金和卡塔爾投資局則未對有關他們出席的問題作出回應。</p>
</div><p>“As we look forward to welcoming the global real estate community to Cannes, our thoughts are with our friends and colleagues across the Middle East,” Mipim director Nicolas Boffi said. “We are closely monitoring the evolving situation in the region and remain in dialogue with our clients and partners.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在我們期待歡迎全球房地產界人士來到戛納時，我們的思念與中東的朋友和同事同在，” Mipim 總監尼古拉斯·博菲（Nicolas Boffi）表示。“我們正在密切關注該地區不斷變化的局勢，並與我們的客户和合作夥伴保持對話。”</p>
</div><p>With the war in its second week, it remains extremely early to assess the impact on an asset class where values typically take months or years to adjust to events. But the share prices of publicly traded real estate companies do provide an early indication of traders’ expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着戰爭進入第二週，目前評估對一個通常需要數月或數年才能對事件做出調整的資產類別的影響仍然為時尚早。但上市房地產公司的股價確實提供了交易者預期的早期跡象。</p>
</div><p>The FTSE 350 Real estate investment trust index is down more than 10 per cent since the war broke out, with the sell-off accelerating at the start of this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自戰爭爆發以來，FTSE 350 房地產投資信託指數下跌超過 10%，本週初的拋售加速。</p>
</div><p>Public markets move first and ask questions later, according to Peter Papadakos, head of research for Europe and APAC at Green Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公共市場首先反應，隨後再提問，格林街（Green Street）歐洲及亞太區研究負責人彼得·帕帕達科斯（Peter Papadakos）表示。</p>
</div><p>“That’s not to say that the public market doesn’t get inflection points right more often than not,” he wrote in an email. “It certainly does so. In that regard, private investors should be more worried about the direction of property prices for the rest of ‘26 today than ten days ago, no question about that.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這並不是説公共市場在拐點上更常正確，” 他在一封電子郵件中寫道。“它確實如此。在這方面，私營投資者今天應該比十天前更擔心未來 ‘26 年房地產價格的方向，毫無疑問。” BLOOMBERG</p>
</div>

伊朗的衝擊顛覆了房地產市場長期以來預期的復甦