<p>今年本應是個人電腦市場的一個巨大順風期。Windows 10 將在 2025 年底停止支持，這意味着全球約有 10 億台個人電腦將停止接收安全更新。這在消費級個人電腦市場問題不大，但在商業級個人電腦市場則是個大問題。</p><p>像 <strong>HP</strong>（HPQ 2.65%）這樣的個人電腦原始設備製造商在 2026 年本應迎來成功，但人工智能的繁榮使情況變得複雜。來自人工智能基礎設施建設對 DRAM 和 NAND 芯片的巨大需求，加上 內存芯片製造商 將生產轉向服務器產品，導致個人電腦市場只剩下殘羹冷炙。內存芯片價格飆升，推高了材料成本，迫使價格上漲。</p><p><strong>Gartner</strong> 預計今年個人電腦價格將上漲 17%，促使消費者和企業更長時間地保留現有個人電腦。預算型個人電腦這一類別可能會基本消失，導致大量消費者陷入困境。Gartner 預計 2026 年個人電腦出貨量將下降 10.4%。</p><p>在這種情況下，HP 顯然是一個輸家，但還有一個令人驚訝的贏家：<strong>Apple</strong>（AAPL +0.94%）。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f735a29f82c3427372ada124a932cdee?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="2023" height="1481" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f735a29f82c3427372ada124a932cdee"/></figure><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="43n70qim8">HP 將受到嚴重打擊</h2><p>內存價格上漲的速度有多快？HP 在 2 月份披露，內存和存儲預計將在今年佔其個人電腦材料成本的約 35%。而在上一季度，這一比例為 15% 至 18%。</p><p>HP 能做的事情不多來緩解內存價格上漲。長期供應協議可能會有所幫助，但如果內存價格回落，HP 將承擔風險。減少內存和存儲內容的個人電腦出貨是保持價格低廉的一個選擇。HP 也可以接受較低的利潤率以保護其市場份額。</p><p>擴展</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/3f14c97f41cd00ae3674578532ce8ae4?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="HP 股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/3f14c97f41cd00ae3674578532ce8ae4"/></figure><h2 id="lafsgq6vv">NYSE: HPQ</h2><p>HP</p><p>今日變動</p><p>(-2.65%) $-0.52</p><p>當前價格</p><p>$18.95</p><h3 id="pligd2l68">關鍵數據點</h3><p>市值</p><p>$170 億</p><p>日內區間</p><p>$18.50 - $19.15</p><p>52 周區間</p><p>$17.56 - $29.89</p><p>成交量</p><p>76 萬</p><p>平均成交量</p><p>1800 萬</p><p>毛利率</p><p>19.91%</p><p>股息收益率</p><p>6.17%</p><p>在 2026 財年第一季度，HP 的個人系統收入同比增長 11%，但運營利潤率較上一季度略有下降。如果價格上漲抵消銷量下降，HP 的個人電腦收入在 2026 年仍有可能增長，但輸入成本的巨大飆升將打擊盈利能力。公司預計其個人電腦運營利潤率將在今年剩餘時間內低於長期目標。</p><p>與其他同時銷售個人電腦和服務器的公司不同，HP 沒有任何能夠從人工智能繁榮中受益的有意義的業務。對於 HP 而言，人工智能基礎設施的需求飆升完全是負面影響。</p><h2 id="tfqk9xcp11">Apple 如何獲勝</h2><p>Apple 在其整個設備業務中也面臨內存芯片價格上漲的壓力。然而，該公司正在抓住機會，將 Windows 個人電腦用户引入其生態系統。</p><p>Apple 上週宣佈了 MacBook Neo。這款 13 英寸入門級 MacBook 起價為$599，隨着內存價格飆升，像 HP 這樣的個人電腦原始設備製造商將很難達到這個價格。Neo 搭載 A18 Pro 芯片，與 iPhone 16 Pro 系列使用的 SoC 相同。高端 MacBook 使用 Apple 的 M 系列芯片，但底層技術基本相同。</p><p>Apple 為 Neo 配備了 8GB 的統一內存，CPU 和 GPU 共享，以及 256GB 的固態硬盤。這些實際上是可用個人電腦的最低配置，但足以提供良好的入門級體驗。早期評測反響積極，儘管在發佈前尚未到來完整的第三方評測。</p><p>Apple 在這裏玩的是長期遊戲。如果有任何時候推出預算型 MacBook，那就是現在。隨着內存價格推高 Windows 個人電腦的成本，$599 的 MacBook 應該對預算有限的消費者具有吸引力。Apple 還以$499 的折扣價格向教育市場提供 Neo。</p><p>如果 Apple 能夠擴大其 Mac 用户基礎，並從基於 Windows 的個人電腦中搶佔市場份額，該公司將為未來的 Mac 業務更強勁的增長奠定基礎。一旦內存情況正常化，宏觀經濟環境改善，Apple 將擁有更大的 Mac 用户基礎，期待在適當時機進行升級。</p><p>擴展</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0053296b4c38aea2f1f918001402361f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="Apple 股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0053296b4c38aea2f1f918001402361f"/></figure><h2 id="cdlbmav1f">NASDAQ: AAPL</h2><p>Apple</p><p>今日變動</p><p>(0.94%) $2.42</p><p>當前價格</p><p>$259.88</p><h3 id="r9kluaxt">關鍵數據點</h3><p>市值</p><p>$3.8 萬億</p><p>日內區間</p><p>$253.68 - $261.15</p><p>52 周區間</p><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p><p>成交量</p><p>34K</p><p>平均成交量</p><p>4800 萬</p><p>毛利率</p><p>47.33%</p><p>股息收益率</p><p>0.40%</p><h2 id="dqbkor0qk">對 Apple 並非全是好消息</h2><p>雖然 Apple 在內存緊缺的情況下可能贏得個人電腦市場份額，但該公司也必須吸收其 iPhone、iPad 和其他設備的內存價格上漲。Apple 當然擁有一定的定價權，但用户總是可以推遲升級。如今，年度 iPhone 升級 大多是漸進式的，因此升級週期可能會被拉長。</p><p>總體而言，內存芯片短缺在短期內可能對 Apple 產生負面影響。然而，該公司在 MacBook Neo 方面表現積極，併為未來幾年更強大的 Mac 業務奠定了基礎。</p>

蘋果

標普半導體 ETF - SPDR

惠普

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

費城交易所 半導體 ETF - iShares

半導體 ETF - VanEck Vectors

AAPX

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>個人電腦市場面臨由於內存芯片價格上漲而帶來的挑戰，Gartner 預測到 2026 年價格將上漲 17%，出貨量將下降 10.4%。惠普預計將因內存成本上升而面臨困難，影響其盈利能力。相比之下，蘋果可能會從這一情況中受益，推出價格為 599 美元的經濟型 MacBook Neo，吸引尋求實惠選擇的消費者。儘管蘋果也面臨更高的內存成本，但其策略可能有助於從 Windows PC 中搶佔市場份額，為其 Mac 業務的未來增長奠定基礎</p>

<p>There was supposed to be a massive tailwind for the PC market this year. Windows 10 reached end-of-life in late 2025, meaning that somewhere around 1 billion PCs worldwide stopped receiving security updates. This is less of an issue in the consumer PC market, but it's a big deal in the business PC market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年本應是個人電腦市場的一個巨大順風期。Windows 10 將在 2025 年底停止支持，這意味着全球約有 10 億台個人電腦將停止接收安全更新。這在消費級個人電腦市場問題不大，但在商業級個人電腦市場則是個大問題。</p>
</div><p>PC OEMs like <strong>HP</strong>( HPQ 2.65%) were set up for success in 2026, but the AI boom has complicated the situation. Enormous demand for DRAM and NAND chips from the AI infrastructure build-out, coupled with memory chip manufacturers shifting production to server products, has left the PC market with scraps. Memory chip prices have surged, pushing up the bill of materials and forcing price increases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>HP</strong>（HPQ 2.65%）這樣的個人電腦原始設備製造商在 2026 年本應迎來成功，但人工智能的繁榮使情況變得複雜。來自人工智能基礎設施建設對 DRAM 和 NAND 芯片的巨大需求，加上 內存芯片製造商 將生產轉向服務器產品，導致個人電腦市場只剩下殘羹冷炙。內存芯片價格飆升，推高了材料成本，迫使價格上漲。</p>
</div><p><strong>Gartner</strong> expects PC prices to surge by 17% this year, prompting consumers and businesses to hold onto their current PCs for longer. Budget PCs as a category could essentially disappear, leaving a large swath of consumers in a bind. Gartner expects PC shipments to tumble by 10.4% in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Gartner</strong> 預計今年個人電腦價格將上漲 17%，促使消費者和企業更長時間地保留現有個人電腦。預算型個人電腦這一類別可能會基本消失，導致大量消費者陷入困境。Gartner 預計 2026 年個人電腦出貨量將下降 10.4%。</p>
</div><p>HP is an obvious loser in this scenario, but there's a surprising winner as well: <strong>Apple</strong>( AAPL +0.94%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，HP 顯然是一個輸家，但還有一個令人驚訝的贏家：<strong>Apple</strong>（AAPL +0.94%）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NjAwMDcvZ2V0dHktd2lubmVycy1sb3NlcnMtYXJyb3dzLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Two arrows labeled loser and winner." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F860007%2Fgetty-winners-losers-arrows.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>HP will get hit hard</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>HP 將受到嚴重打擊</h2>
</div><p>How fast are memory prices rising? HP disclosed in February that memory and storage are expected to account for roughly 35% of its PC bill of materials this year. That's up from 15% to 18% in the previous quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>內存價格上漲的速度有多快？HP 在 2 月份披露，內存和存儲預計將在今年佔其個人電腦材料成本的約 35%。而在上一季度，這一比例為 15% 至 18%。</p>
</div><p>There's not a ton HP can do to mitigate rising memory prices. Long-term supply agreements could help, but they'll leave HP on the hook if memory prices reverse. Shipping PCs with less memory and storage content is an option to keep prices down. HP could also accept lower profit margins to protect its market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HP 能做的事情不多來緩解內存價格上漲。長期供應協議可能會有所幫助，但如果內存價格回落，HP 將承擔風險。減少內存和存儲內容的個人電腦出貨是保持價格低廉的一個選擇。HP 也可以接受較低的利潤率以保護其市場份額。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>擴展</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0hQUS5wbmcmdz0xMjg" alt="HP Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FHPQ.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: HPQ</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NYSE: HPQ</h2>
</div><p>HP</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HP</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(-2.65%) $-0.52</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-2.65%) $-0.52</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$18.95</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$18.95</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$17B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$170 億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$18.50 - $19.15</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$18.50 - $19.15</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$17.56 - $29.89</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$17.56 - $29.89</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>760K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>76 萬</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>18M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1800 萬</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.91%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.91%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>6.17%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6.17%</p>
</div><p>Personal Systems revenue rose 11% year over year for HP in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, but operating margin declined a bit from the previous quarter. HP's PC revenue could still grow in 2026 if price increases offset volume declines, but the huge surge in input costs will knock down profitability. The company expects its PC operating margins to be below its long-term target for the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 財年第一季度，HP 的個人系統收入同比增長 11%，但運營利潤率較上一季度略有下降。如果價格上漲抵消銷量下降，HP 的個人電腦收入在 2026 年仍有可能增長，但輸入成本的巨大飆升將打擊盈利能力。公司預計其個人電腦運營利潤率將在今年剩餘時間內低於長期目標。</p>
</div><p>HP has no meaningful business that will benefit from the AI boom, unlike other companies that sell both PCs and servers. For HP, soaring demand for AI infrastructure is all downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與其他同時銷售個人電腦和服務器的公司不同，HP 沒有任何能夠從人工智能繁榮中受益的有意義的業務。對於 HP 而言，人工智能基礎設施的需求飆升完全是負面影響。</p>
</div><h2>How Apple could win</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Apple 如何獲勝</h2>
</div><p>Apple is also exposed to rising memory chip prices across its entire device business. However, the company is seizing an opportunity to bring Windows PC users into its ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 在其整個設備業務中也面臨內存芯片價格上漲的壓力。然而，該公司正在抓住機會，將 Windows 個人電腦用户引入其生態系統。</p>
</div><p>Apple announced the MacBook Neo last week. The 13-inch entry-level MacBook starts at $599, a price that PC OEMs like HP will have trouble hitting as memory prices spiral higher. The Neo is powered by the A18 Pro chip, the same SoC used in the iPhone 16 Pro family. Higher-end MacBooks use Apple's M-series chips, but the underlying technology is essentially the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 上週宣佈了 MacBook Neo。這款 13 英寸入門級 MacBook 起價為$599，隨着內存價格飆升，像 HP 這樣的個人電腦原始設備製造商將很難達到這個價格。Neo 搭載 A18 Pro 芯片，與 iPhone 16 Pro 系列使用的 SoC 相同。高端 MacBook 使用 Apple 的 M 系列芯片，但底層技術基本相同。</p>
</div><p>Apple has equipped the Neo with 8GB of unified RAM, shared between the CPU and GPU, as well as a 256GB solid-state drive. These are really the bare minimums for a usable PC, but it's enough for a solid entry-level experience. Early reviews have been positive, although full third-party reviews haven't yet arrived ahead of launch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 為 Neo 配備了 8GB 的統一內存，CPU 和 GPU 共享，以及 256GB 的固態硬盤。這些實際上是可用個人電腦的最低配置，但足以提供良好的入門級體驗。早期評測反響積極，儘管在發佈前尚未到來完整的第三方評測。</p>
</div><p>Apple is playing the long game here. If there was ever a time to launch a budget MacBook, it's right now. With memory prices driving up the cost of Windows PCs, a $599 MacBook should be appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Apple also offers the Neo to the education market for a discounted price of $499.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 在這裏玩的是長期遊戲。如果有任何時候推出預算型 MacBook，那就是現在。隨着內存價格推高 Windows 個人電腦的成本，$599 的 MacBook 應該對預算有限的消費者具有吸引力。Apple 還以$499 的折扣價格向教育市場提供 Neo。</p>
</div><p>If Apple can grow its Mac install base and steal away market share from Windows-based PCs, the company will be setting up its Mac business for stronger growth down the road. Once the memory situation normalizes and the macroeconomic environment improves, Apple will have a larger base of Mac users eager to upgrade when the time comes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Apple 能夠擴大其 Mac 用户基礎，並從基於 Windows 的個人電腦中搶佔市場份額，該公司將為未來的 Mac 業務更強勁的增長奠定基礎。一旦內存情況正常化，宏觀經濟環境改善，Apple 將擁有更大的 Mac 用户基礎，期待在適當時機進行升級。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>擴展</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FBUEwucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Apple Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAAPL.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AAPL</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AAPL</h2>
</div><p>Apple</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(0.94%) $2.42</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(0.94%) $2.42</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$259.88</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$259.88</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$3.8T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$3.8 萬億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$253.68 - $261.15</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$253.68 - $261.15</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>34K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>34K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>48M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4800 萬</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>47.33%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>47.33%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.40%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.40%</p>
</div><h2>Not all good news for Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對 Apple 並非全是好消息</h2>
</div><p>While Apple could win market share in the PC business amid the memory crunch, the company will also have to absorb higher memory prices for its iPhone, iPad, and other devices. Apple certainly has some pricing power, but users can always delay upgrades. Annual iPhone upgrades are largely incremental these days, so the upgrade cycle could get stretched out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 Apple 在內存緊缺的情況下可能贏得個人電腦市場份額，但該公司也必須吸收其 iPhone、iPad 和其他設備的內存價格上漲。Apple 當然擁有一定的定價權，但用户總是可以推遲升級。如今，年度 iPhone 升級 大多是漸進式的，因此升級週期可能會被拉長。</p>
</div><p>Overall, the memory chip shortage may be a negative for Apple in the near term. However, the company is being aggressive with the MacBook Neo, and it's laying the foundation for a stronger Mac business in the years ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，內存芯片短缺在短期內可能對 Apple 產生負面影響。然而，該公司在 MacBook Neo 方面表現積極，併為未來幾年更強大的 Mac 業務奠定了基礎。</p>
</div>

The PC Collapse Has a Winner -- and It's Not Who You Think

- 2026 年，PC 市場因內存價格上漲而面臨挑戰，預計出貨量將下降 10.4%。  
- HP 受影響較大，內存成本佔其 PC 成本的 35%。  
- Apple 通過推出 599 美元的 MacBook Neo 搶佔市場份額。

PC 市場的崩潰中有一個贏家——但這不是你所想的那個人