<ul>
<li>油價上漲，股票市場因美伊衝突而波動</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>低收入家庭可能削減支出，影響企業</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>美聯儲面臨在衝突中平衡通脹與增長的挑戰</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：霍華德·施奈德</p>
<p>華盛頓，3 月 10 日（路透社）- 隨着汽油價格上漲和股市動盪，美國與以色列對伊朗的戰爭可能對美國各經濟層面的消費者造成嚴重影響，這增加了經濟增長的關鍵支柱受到削弱的風險，而這一支柱原本預計將在今年因收入税退税增加、失業率相對較低和資產價值上升而大幅增長。</p>
<p>在年初，分析師認為美國所謂的 K 型經濟的兩個 “推動力” 在未來幾個月可能會維持甚至增長支出，富裕家庭的財富效應將促使他們消費更多，而新的加班和小費收入的免税政策將幫助小時工和一些服務行業的工人獲得意外的税收退税。</p>
<p>然而，雙方可能面臨不同類型的壓力。根據美國汽車協會的數據，截至週二早上，全國平均汽油價格已超過每加侖 3.50 美元，比衝突開始前的約 3 美元上漲了 17%。除了堪薩斯州的平均價格為 2.96 美元外，其他州的價格均已超過 3 美元，考慮到霍爾木茲海峽的運輸中斷使得油市仍然動盪，分析師認為如果衝突持續，汽油價格可能達到 4 美元。股市已從高位回落，關於未來的不確定性在家庭支出中顯現出來，基於淨資產上升的家庭支出在週一時，特朗普總統暗示衝突可能迅速結束，股市隨之上漲，但他在夜間調整了措辭，保持了衝突延續的可能性，這將對全球供應鏈、商品市場和企業盈利帶來所有相關風險。</p>
<p>週二早上，主要美國股指開盤時變化不大。</p>
<p>對於低收入家庭而言，汽油成本的上漲可能會從其他支出類別中抽走資金，給企業帶來痛苦，這可能會導致企業開始降低就業和投資計劃，面臨突如其來的不確定環境。</p>
<p>“價格越高，持續時間越長，越會從一些公司因油價上漲而受益的情況轉變為真正壓迫消費者，並對經濟造成拖累。價格在某一水平上維持一定時間，會從對 GDP 的正面影響轉變為對 GDP 的負面影響，並增加經濟衰退的可能性，” 威爾明頓信託的首席經濟學家盧克·蒂利表示，油價在每桶 85 到 100 美元的範圍內持續幾個月，可能會 “顯著增加衰退的風險，因為勞動力市場已經處於如此嚴峻的狀態。”</p>
<p>基準布倫特原油週一突破每桶 116 美元，隨後跌至 90 美元以下，週二早上再次上漲。美國國防部長皮特·赫格斯特表示，週二將對伊朗進行最強烈的打擊，儘管一位高級將領談到針對伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽佈雷能力的打擊，這可能是重新開放通過這一關鍵通道的一個步驟，而中東的石油運輸幾乎已停止。</p>
<p>美國和全球經濟風險的突然變化給中央銀行政策制定者帶來了挑戰，尤其是在美國，官員們看到一個基本強勁的經濟面臨着通脹和增長之間的平衡風險，通脹率大約高於 2% 的目標一個百分點，但預計會下降，而失業率似乎穩定在 4.3% 左右，沒有明確的共識認為它即將飆升。</p>
<p>這一觀點現在受到雙重打擊：經濟在 2 月份意外失去就業崗位，現在又增加了不確定性，可能導致企業在招聘方面變得更加謹慎，而如果油價上漲推動其他商品的成本上升，如運輸費或家庭取暖費，通脹可能會更廣泛地上升。</p>
<p>儘管更高的燃料價格可能對通脹的影響只是暫時的，或者如果消費者將支出轉移到其他領域並整體增長放緩，可能會減輕整體價格壓力，但當前的背景帶來了其他風險。在 2022 年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後油價飆升的分析中，堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行的研究人員得出結論，汽油等高知名度消費品價格的上漲可能對家庭的通脹預期產生過大的影響，尤其是在這些預期已經因之前的通脹衝擊而升高的情況下——這是美聯儲政策制定者持續擔憂的動態，並已被引用為保持貨幣政策緊縮的理由，以控制預期。</p>
<p>投資者仍然預計美聯儲今年將降息，但在美國軍事行動開始後，時機有所推遲，政策制定者之間在通脹和增長擔憂之間可能出現對峙。</p>
<p>美聯儲下週召開會議，預計將維持當前 3.5% 至 3.75% 的政策利率不變。</p>
<p>BNY 投資的首席經濟學家文森特·萊因哈特表示，中央銀行現在得出關於衝突可能造成的經濟影響的結論還為時尚早。即使對增長影響的擔憂也必須考慮到美國作為淨能源生產國的角色，這意味着儘管全球價格上漲可能導致美國消費者在加油時支付更高的價格，但這也意味着更高的收入，以及可能更多的就業和投資，給美國本土的能源公司帶來好處。</p>
<p>但價格維持在高位的時間越長，風險就越大，每桶價格在 90 美元以上持續一個月或更長時間，可能會開始削弱消費和增長。</p>
<p>雷因哈特表示：“為了讓石油衝擊改變美國經濟的走向，價格必須顯著高於人們習慣的水平。必須足夠大。我們還沒有達到足夠大的階段。”</p>
<p>美國油價飆升</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/GASOLINE/jnpwrydjrvw/chart_eikon.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/GASOLINE/jnpwrydjrvw/chart_eikon.jpg"/></p>

標普 500 指數

<ul>
<li>Gas prices rise, stocks volatile amid US-Iran conflict</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>油價上漲，股票市場因美伊衝突而波動</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Lower-income households may cut spending, affecting businesses</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>低收入家庭可能削減支出，影響企業</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Fed faces challenge balancing inflation and growth amid conflict</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美聯儲面臨在衝突中平衡通脹與增長的挑戰</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Howard Schneider</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：霍華德·施奈德</p>
</div><p>WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - Rising gasoline prices and a wobbly stock market are increasing the risk that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could hit hard among consumers across the economic spectrum in the United States, undercutting a key prop of economic growth that had been expected to surge this year on the basis of beefed-up income tax refunds, relatively low unemployment, and rising asset values.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華盛頓，3 月 10 日（路透社）- 隨着汽油價格上漲和股市動盪，美國與以色列對伊朗的戰爭可能對美國各經濟層面的消費者造成嚴重影響，這增加了經濟增長的關鍵支柱受到削弱的風險，而這一支柱原本預計將在今年因收入税退税增加、失業率相對較低和資產價值上升而大幅增長。</p>
</div><p>Heading into the year, analysts felt there was reason both “spurs” of the U.S.’ so-called K-shaped economy could sustain or even grow spending in coming months, with wealth effects leading better-off families to consume more and windfall tax refunds from new exemptions on overtime and tip income helping hourly and some service industry workers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在年初，分析師認為美國所謂的 K 型經濟的兩個 “推動力” 在未來幾個月可能會維持甚至增長支出，富裕家庭的財富效應將促使他們消費更多，而新的加班和小費收入的免税政策將幫助小時工和一些服務行業的工人獲得意外的税收退税。</p>
</div><p>Instead, both sides could be under different sorts of pressure. Average national gasoline prices topped $3.50 a gallon as of Tuesday morning according to American Automobile Association data, a 17% jump from the roughly $3 average from before the beginning of the conflict. Prices are now above $3 in every state except Kansas, where the average was $2.96, and with oil markets still volatile given shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz analysts see $4 gas as a possibility if the conflict persists. Stocks have come off their highs and the uncertainty about what’s next, a factor in household spending based on rising net worth, was on display when President Donald Trump on Monday hinted at a possible quick end to the conflict and sent stocks higher, only to temper his language overnight and keep open the chance of an extended conflict with all of the attendant risks to global supply chains, commodity markets, and corporate earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，雙方可能面臨不同類型的壓力。根據美國汽車協會的數據，截至週二早上，全國平均汽油價格已超過每加侖 3.50 美元，比衝突開始前的約 3 美元上漲了 17%。除了堪薩斯州的平均價格為 2.96 美元外，其他州的價格均已超過 3 美元，考慮到霍爾木茲海峽的運輸中斷使得油市仍然動盪，分析師認為如果衝突持續，汽油價格可能達到 4 美元。股市已從高位回落，關於未來的不確定性在家庭支出中顯現出來，基於淨資產上升的家庭支出在週一時，特朗普總統暗示衝突可能迅速結束，股市隨之上漲，但他在夜間調整了措辭，保持了衝突延續的可能性，這將對全球供應鏈、商品市場和企業盈利帶來所有相關風險。</p>
</div><p>Major U.S. stock indices were little changed when trading opened on Tuesday morning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二早上，主要美國股指開盤時變化不大。</p>
</div><p>For lower-income households, rising gasoline costs could pull money from other categories of spending, spreading the pain across businesses that could in turn begin to lower job and investment plans in a suddenly uncertain environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於低收入家庭而言，汽油成本的上漲可能會從其他支出類別中抽走資金，給企業帶來痛苦，這可能會導致企業開始降低就業和投資計劃，面臨突如其來的不確定環境。</p>
</div><p>“The higher the price and the longer it goes the more you shift from higher prices benefitting some companies who boost oil production and get more revenue…to really pinching consumers and being a drag on the economy. There is some point of prices being at a certain level for a certain amount of time that it flips from being a plus to GDP to a drag on GDP and increasing the likelihood of a downturn,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, with oil in the $85 to $100 per barrel range for several months likely to “materially increase the risk of recession because the labor market is already in such a challenging state.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“價格越高，持續時間越長，越會從一些公司因油價上漲而受益的情況轉變為真正壓迫消費者，並對經濟造成拖累。價格在某一水平上維持一定時間，會從對 GDP 的正面影響轉變為對 GDP 的負面影響，並增加經濟衰退的可能性，” 威爾明頓信託的首席經濟學家盧克·蒂利表示，油價在每桶 85 到 100 美元的範圍內持續幾個月，可能會 “顯著增加衰退的風險，因為勞動力市場已經處於如此嚴峻的狀態。”</p>
</div><p>Benchmark Brent crude topped $116 a barrel on Monday before falling below $90 a barrel, then rising again on Tuesday morning. Far from an offramp, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would see the most intense strikes yet on Iran, even as a top general talked of targeting Iran’s capacity to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a possible step towards reopening shipping through a chokepoint where the movement of oil from the Middle East has all but stopped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基準布倫特原油週一突破每桶 116 美元，隨後跌至 90 美元以下，週二早上再次上漲。美國國防部長皮特·赫格斯特表示，週二將對伊朗進行最強烈的打擊，儘管一位高級將領談到針對伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽佈雷能力的打擊，這可能是重新開放通過這一關鍵通道的一個步驟，而中東的石油運輸幾乎已停止。</p>
</div><p>The sudden shift in risks to the U.S. and global economy has posed a challenge to central bank policymakers, particularly in the U.S., where officials saw an essentially strong economy facing a balanced set of risks between inflation that was lodged about a percentage point above their 2% target but expected to fall, and an unemployment rate seemingly stable in a range around 4.3% with no clear consensus that it was about to spike higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國和全球經濟風險的突然變化給中央銀行政策制定者帶來了挑戰，尤其是在美國，官員們看到一個基本強勁的經濟面臨着通脹和增長之間的平衡風險，通脹率大約高於 2% 的目標一個百分點，但預計會下降，而失業率似乎穩定在 4.3% 左右，沒有明確的共識認為它即將飆升。</p>
</div><p>That view has now been hit from both sides: with the economy already having shed jobs unexpectedly in February, there is now the added risk that uncertainty stemming from the conflict could cause businesses to become more cautious about hiring, while inflation could rise more broadly if higher oil prices drive up costs for other things, like shipping rates or home heating bills.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一觀點現在受到雙重打擊：經濟在 2 月份意外失去就業崗位，現在又增加了不確定性，可能導致企業在招聘方面變得更加謹慎，而如果油價上漲推動其他商品的成本上升，如運輸費或家庭取暖費，通脹可能會更廣泛地上升。</p>
</div><p>Even though higher fuel prices may have only a temporary influence on inflation, or could even ease broader price pressures on net if consumers shift spending away from other areas and overall growth slows, the current context poses other risks. In analysis conducted after oil costs jumped in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kansas City Fed researchers concluded that increases in high-profile consumer prices like those for gasoline can have an outsized effect on household inflation expectations if those are already elevated by a previous inflation shock - a dynamic Fed policymakers continue to worry about and have cited as a reason to keep monetary policy restrictive in order to hold expectations in check.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管更高的燃料價格可能對通脹的影響只是暫時的，或者如果消費者將支出轉移到其他領域並整體增長放緩，可能會減輕整體價格壓力，但當前的背景帶來了其他風險。在 2022 年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後油價飆升的分析中，堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行的研究人員得出結論，汽油等高知名度消費品價格的上漲可能對家庭的通脹預期產生過大的影響，尤其是在這些預期已經因之前的通脹衝擊而升高的情況下——這是美聯儲政策制定者持續擔憂的動態，並已被引用為保持貨幣政策緊縮的理由，以控制預期。</p>
</div><p>Investors still expect the Fed to cut interest rates this year, but the timing shifted back after the start of U.S. military action, with a potential standoff developing among policymakers between inflation and growth concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者仍然預計美聯儲今年將降息，但在美國軍事行動開始後，時機有所推遲，政策制定者之間在通脹和增長擔憂之間可能出現對峙。</p>
</div><p>The Fed meets next week and is expected to keep its policy rate steady in the current 3.5% to 3.75% range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲下週召開會議，預計將維持當前 3.5% 至 3.75% 的政策利率不變。</p>
</div><p>Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Investments and a former top Fed staffer, said it was far too early for the central bank to draw any conclusions about the likely economic fallout from the conflict. Even concerns about the impact on growth have to be tempered by the fact that the U.S.’ role as a net energy producer means that while higher global prices may mean higher prices at the pump for U.S. consumers, it also means higher income, and potentially more jobs and investment, for U.S.-based energy firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BNY 投資的首席經濟學家文森特·萊因哈特表示，中央銀行現在得出關於衝突可能造成的經濟影響的結論還為時尚早。即使對增長影響的擔憂也必須考慮到美國作為淨能源生產國的角色，這意味着儘管全球價格上漲可能導致美國消費者在加油時支付更高的價格，但這也意味着更高的收入，以及可能更多的就業和投資，給美國本土的能源公司帶來好處。</p>
</div><p>But the longer prices remain elevated the greater the risks, with per-barrel costs in the upper $90 range for a month or longer the sort of material shock that could start to undercut consumption and growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但價格維持在高位的時間越長，風險就越大，每桶價格在 90 美元以上持續一個月或更長時間，可能會開始削弱消費和增長。</p>
</div><p>“You have to have prices meaningfully higher than what people are used to,” for an oil shock to change the course of the U.S. economy, Reinhart said. “It’s got to be big enough. We’re not at the big enough stage.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雷因哈特表示：“為了讓石油衝擊改變美國經濟的走向，價格必須顯著高於人們習慣的水平。必須足夠大。我們還沒有達到足夠大的階段。”</p>
</div><p>US pump prices have shot up</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國油價飆升</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/GASOLINE/jnpwrydjrvw/chart_eikon.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/GASOLINE/jnpwrydjrvw/chart_eikon.jpg"/></p>

Higher gasoline prices, volatile stocks, could hit both low- and high-income US consumers as war persists

Reuters

標普 500 波動率指數

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

能源業 ETF - SPDR

Cboe Validus S&P 500 Dynamic Putwrite Index ETF

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

美國汽油基金 ETF - Concierge Technologies

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

隨着戰爭的持續，更高的汽油價格和波動的股票可能會影響美國的低收入和高收入消費者