<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Turkish-Central-bank.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Turkish-Central-bank.png"/></p>
<p>由於中東危機持續，土耳其里拉本週小幅上漲，交易者在等待即將到來的土耳其中央銀行利率決定。美元/土耳其里拉匯率從年初至今的高點 44.10 回落至 44。</p>
<h2>土耳其中央銀行利率決定</h2>
<p>本週，土耳其共和國中央銀行（CBRT）將成為焦點，因為它將公佈利率決定。</p>
<p>這一決定是在中東危機持續的背景下做出的。例如，北約官員擊落了幾架伊朗無人機。</p>
<p>美元/土耳其里拉匯率的下一個重要數據將在週四公佈，當時中央銀行將發佈其利率決定。</p>
<p>路透社調查的經濟學家預計，中央銀行將維持利率在 37% 不變。同時，隔夜借貸和貸款利率將分別維持在 35.5% 和 40% 不變。</p>
<p>最新數據顯示，土耳其的通貨膨脹在 2 月份略有上升，這一趨勢可能會在未來幾個月繼續，因為中東危機的影響。2 月份的消費者價格指數（CPI）從 1 月份的 30.6% 上升至 31.53%。</p>
<p>積極的一面是，剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格後的核心通脹在 2 月份降至 29.4%，低於之前的 29.8%。由於持續的戰爭推動全球能源價格上漲，通脹可能仍將保持在高位。</p>
<p>土耳其的失業率在 1 月份跳升，從 12 月份創下的 7.8% 的歷史低點上升至 8.1%。與此同時，失業人數減少了 73,000 人，降至 282 萬人。</p>
<p>土耳其的 GDP 在第四季度也放緩，僅增長 0.4%，低於之前的 1%。分析師仍然預計，中央銀行將在今年晚些時候降息，特別是如果整體通脹繼續下降的話。</p>
<p>美元/土耳其里拉匯率的另一個關鍵催化劑將是即將發佈的美國消費者通脹報告，該報告將在週三公佈。</p>
<p>經濟學家預計，即將發佈的報告將顯示，2 月份的消費者價格指數（CPI）上漲了 2.4%，而核心通脹上漲了 2.5%。</p>
<p>人們擔心美國經濟已經進入滯漲階段，即通脹上升而經濟增長放緩。通脹可能仍將高於美聯儲 2.0% 的目標，而勞動力市場的疲軟加劇。週五發佈的一份報告顯示，2 月份經濟失去了超過 92,000 個就業崗位。</p>
<h2>USD/TRY 技術分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDTR.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3574" height="2106" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDTR.png"/></p>
<p><em>土耳其里拉圖表 | 來源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>日線圖顯示，美元對土耳其里拉的匯率在今年繼續上漲。本月跳升至 44.10 的歷史高點後，回落至 44。</p>
<p>該貨幣對仍高於所有移動平均線，而相對強弱指數（RSI）和 MACD 指標持續上升，已達到超買水平。</p>
<p>因此，該貨幣對可能會恢復上升趨勢，並有可能達到其關鍵目標水平 45。</p>
<p>美元/土耳其里拉預測：里拉在土耳其中央銀行決定前上漲，首發於 Invezz。</p>

土耳其指數 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>土耳其里拉略有上漲，交易者在等待土耳其共和國中央銀行（CBRT）的利率決定，同時中東局勢持續緊張。美元/土耳其里拉匯率從 44.10 的高位降至 44。經濟學家預計 CBRT 將維持利率在 37%。土耳其的通貨膨脹在 2 月份上升至 31.53%，而失業率則增加至 8.1%。分析師預測，如果通貨膨脹趨勢持續，可能會在今年晚些時候進行降息。即將發佈的美國消費者通脹報告也可能影響美元/土耳其里拉匯率</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Turkish-Central-bank.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/Turkish-Central-bank.png"/></p>
<p>The Turkish lira rose slightly this week as traders waited for the upcoming CBRT interest rate decision, as the crisis in the Middle East continued. The USD/TRY exchange rate retreated to 44 from the year-to-date high of 44.10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於中東危機持續，土耳其里拉本週小幅上漲，交易者在等待即將到來的土耳其中央銀行利率決定。美元/土耳其里拉匯率從年初至今的高點 44.10 回落至 44。</p>
</div><h2>Turkish Central Bank interest rate decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>土耳其中央銀行利率決定</h2>
</div><p>The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will be in the spotlight this week as it delivers its interest rate decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週，土耳其共和國中央銀行（CBRT）將成為焦點，因為它將公佈利率決定。</p>
</div><p>This decision comes as the country comes in the spotlight as a crisis in the Middle East continues. For example, NATO officials have downed several Iranian drones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一決定是在中東危機持續的背景下做出的。例如，北約官員擊落了幾架伊朗無人機。</p>
</div><p>The next important for the USD/TRY exchange rate will come out on Thursday when the CBRT publishes its interest rate decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/土耳其里拉匯率的下一個重要數據將在週四公佈，當時中央銀行將發佈其利率決定。</p>
</div><p>Economists polled by Reuters expect the bank to maintain interest rates unchanged at 37%. It will also leave the overnight borrowing and lending rates unchanged at 35.5% and 40%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社調查的經濟學家預計，中央銀行將維持利率在 37% 不變。同時，隔夜借貸和貸款利率將分別維持在 35.5% 和 40% 不變。</p>
</div><p>The most recent data showed that Turkey’s inflation rose slightly in February, a trend that may continue in the coming months because of the crisis in the Middle East. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 31.53% in February from 30.6% in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新數據顯示，土耳其的通貨膨脹在 2 月份略有上升，這一趨勢可能會在未來幾個月繼續，因為中東危機的影響。2 月份的消費者價格指數（CPI）從 1 月份的 30.6% 上升至 31.53%。</p>
</div><p>On the positive side, core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, dropped to 29.4% in February from the previous 29.8%. Inflation may remain high now that the ongoing war has pushed energy prices higher around the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>積極的一面是，剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格後的核心通脹在 2 月份降至 29.4%，低於之前的 29.8%。由於持續的戰爭推動全球能源價格上漲，通脹可能仍將保持在高位。</p>
</div><p>Turkey’s unemployment rate jumped in January, moving from a record low of 7.8% in December to 8.1%. This happened as the number of the unemployed fell by 73,000 to 2.82 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>土耳其的失業率在 1 月份跳升，從 12 月份創下的 7.8% 的歷史低點上升至 8.1%。與此同時，失業人數減少了 73,000 人，降至 282 萬人。</p>
</div><p>Turkey’s GDP also slowed down in the fourth quarter. It expanded by just 0.4% from the previous 1%. Analysts still expect that the central bank will cut rates later this year, especially if the headline inflation continues falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>土耳其的 GDP 在第四季度也放緩，僅增長 0.4%，低於之前的 1%。分析師仍然預計，中央銀行將在今年晚些時候降息，特別是如果整體通脹繼續下降的話。</p>
</div><p>The other key catalyst for the USD/TRY exchange rate will be the upcoming US consumer inflation report, which will come out on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/土耳其里拉匯率的另一個關鍵催化劑將是即將發佈的美國消費者通脹報告，該報告將在週三公佈。</p>
</div><p>Economists expect the upcoming report to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in February as the core inflation rose by 2.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家預計，即將發佈的報告將顯示，2 月份的消費者價格指數（CPI）上漲了 2.4%，而核心通脹上漲了 2.5%。</p>
</div><p>There are concerns that the US economy has moved into a stagflation, which happens when inflation is rising as economic growth slows. Inflation will likely remain above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%, while the labor market weakness has accelerated. A report released on Friday showed that the economy shed over 92,000 jobs in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人們擔心美國經濟已經進入滯漲階段，即通脹上升而經濟增長放緩。通脹可能仍將高於美聯儲 2.0% 的目標，而勞動力市場的疲軟加劇。週五發佈的一份報告顯示，2 月份經濟失去了超過 92,000 個就業崗位。</p>
</div><h2>USD/TRY technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/TRY 技術分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDTR.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDTR.png"/></p>
<p><em>Turkish lira chart | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>土耳其里拉圖表 | 來源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD to TRY exchange rate has continued rising this year. It jumped to a record high of 44.10 this month and then pulled back to 44 this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖顯示，美元對土耳其里拉的匯率在今年繼續上漲。本月跳升至 44.10 的歷史高點後，回落至 44。</p>
</div><p>The pair remains above all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued rising, moving to the overbought level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該貨幣對仍高於所有移動平均線，而相對強弱指數（RSI）和 MACD 指標持續上升，已達到超買水平。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the pair will likely resume the uptrend and potentially reach its key target level at 45.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，該貨幣對可能會恢復上升趨勢，並有可能達到其關鍵目標水平 45。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/TRY forecast: Lira rises ahead of the Turkish Central Bank decision appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/土耳其里拉預測：里拉在土耳其中央銀行決定前上漲，首發於 Invezz。</p>
</div>

美元兑土耳其里拉的預測：土耳其里拉在土耳其央行決策前有所上漲