<ul>
<li>中東衝突導致油價飆升</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>市場迅速重新評估新興經濟體的利率預期</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>無法放鬆政策對經濟增長產生負面影響</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：卡琳·斯特羅赫克</p>
<p>倫敦，3 月 11 日（路透社）- 伊朗戰爭引發的油價飆升，暫時中斷了從波蘭到土耳其的新興市場央行的貨幣寬鬆推動，因為政策制定者面臨通脹預期急劇上升和風險厭惡加劇的局面。</p>
<p>在經歷了一系列衝擊——從新冠疫情到俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭——擾亂市場、打擊增長並推動通脹後，央行們終於對全球經濟的韌性和價格壓力的減退感到有些樂觀。</p>
<p>但由於華盛頓和以色列對伊朗的轟炸行動引發的中東衝突，油價在週一飆升至近每桶 120 美元，美元走強，美國國債收益率上升——這成為新興市場借貸成本的一個指標。</p>
<p>儘管這些變動中的一些已經被逆轉，但在地緣政治動盪加劇的情況下，通脹和全球經濟增長的前景依然不穩定。</p>
<p>在戰爭爆發前的 2 月底，15 家主要新興市場央行中有 10 家預計將在接下來的六個月內至少下調 10 個基點的政策利率。</p>
<p>然而到週二，這個數字縮減至僅六家，預計仍會降息的央行的降息幅度也有所減少，摩根大通的計算顯示。</p>
<p>“新興市場的央行可能會越來越多地發出 ‘觀望’ 的信號，等待伊朗衝突相關不確定性的解決，” 格拉梅西基金管理公司的主權研究與戰略聯席負責人佩塔爾·阿塔納索夫表示。</p>
<h3>新興歐洲從寬鬆轉向可能的緊縮</h3>
<p>新興市場並不孤單。過去一週，美國聯邦儲備委員會的降息預期也大幅回落。</p>
<p>但這種轉變在新興歐洲表現得尤為明顯，市場對捷克、匈牙利和波蘭的定價顯示出在接下來的六個月內從寬鬆轉向潛在緊縮。</p>
<p>波蘭的政策制定者承認，近期降息的餘地已經縮小，而匈牙利和捷克的同行也承認了伊朗衝突帶來的風險和不確定性。</p>
<p>對能源進口的依賴是一個重要因素，法國興業銀行的 CEEMEA 經濟學家胡安·奧爾茨表示。</p>
<p>“例如，在中東歐，波蘭和匈牙利對油價非常敏感，” 他説。</p>
<h3>在通脹風險與增長困境之間的平衡</h3>
<p>分析師表示，原油的不確定前景和整體能源價格的上漲是全球新興市場面臨的平衡難題的核心，因為央行被迫在上升的價格壓力與對增長的影響之間權衡。</p>
<p>“這是對增長的負面衝擊，” 摩根士丹利全球外匯和新興市場戰略負責人詹姆斯·洛德表示。“這是一種消費税，可能會導致央行採取比原本更緊縮的政策，因為通脹風險。”</p>
<p>在拉丁美洲，市場對巴西的降息預期減少，儘管中央銀行預計將在 3 月 18 日公佈利率決定，仍然預計會降息，因為政策制定者面臨疲軟的增長。中央銀行在去年 7 月暫停了激進的緊縮週期，此後將基準利率維持在 15%，為近 20 年來的最高水平。</p>
<p>另一個焦點是土耳其——一個對通脹壓力高度敏感的能源進口國，中央銀行預計將在週四公佈其利率決定。</p>
<p>“我們預計土耳其中央銀行將通過暫停降息週期來回應，等待衝突的可能持續時間和相關經濟漣漪效應的進一步發展，” 格拉梅西的阿塔納索夫表示。</p>
<p>雖然中東衝突及其連鎖反應可能促使央行在短期內放緩降息或暫停降息，但未來的可見性要低得多。</p>
<p>在 2021 年和 2022 年，隨着經濟仍在從疫情中恢復，並突然面臨與烏克蘭戰爭爆發相關的衝擊，新興市場央行是最早加息並應對通脹壓力的央行之一，而許多發達經濟體的同行錯誤地認為情況會是暫時的。</p>
<p>再次強調，未來的許多事情將取決於央行行長對能源價格上漲及其後續通脹影響的持續性的判斷，南非儲備銀行行長萊塞賈·卡尼亞戈告訴路透社。</p>
<p>低估其持續性將需要在未來採取更激進且更昂貴的立場，而及早應對通脹將允許在一段時間內更平穩的政策行動，” 他説。</p>
<p>“這就是 2021/2022 年的教訓，” 卡尼亞戈説。“那些早期採取行動的央行發現，他們不必採取激進的措施……一步到位，這正是那些在 2022 年下半年才反應的央行所經歷的情況。”</p>
<p>新興市場央行的利率預期已大幅變化</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4cI4rvz?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4cI4rvz"/></p>

AVEM

SPDR標普新興市場高股利ETF

EVLU

<ul>
<li>Conflict in Middle East sends oil prices soaring</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中東衝突導致油價飆升</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Markets rapidly re-priced rate bets for emerging economies</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>市場迅速重新評估新興經濟體的利率預期</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Inability to ease is negative for economic growth</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>無法放鬆政策對經濟增長產生負面影響</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Karin Strohecker</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：卡琳·斯特羅赫克</p>
</div><p>LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - The oil price spike brought on by the war in Iran has, for now, short-circuited a monetary easing push among emerging market central banks from Poland to Turkey as policymakers reckon with a sharp uptick in inflation expectations and rising risk aversion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，3 月 11 日（路透社）- 伊朗戰爭引發的油價飆升，暫時中斷了從波蘭到土耳其的新興市場央行的貨幣寬鬆推動，因為政策制定者面臨通脹預期急劇上升和風險厭惡加劇的局面。</p>
</div><p>Following a raft of shocks - from the COVID pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - that roiled markets, hit growth and fuelled inflation, central banks had finally been growing somewhat optimistic again about global economic resilience and receding price pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了一系列衝擊——從新冠疫情到俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭——擾亂市場、打擊增長並推動通脹後，央行們終於對全球經濟的韌性和價格壓力的減退感到有些樂觀。</p>
</div><p>But the widening conflict in the Middle East triggered by Washington and Israel’s bombing campaign against Iran saw oil prices soar to nearly $120 per barrel on Monday, the dollar gain ground and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields - a proxy for borrowing costs for emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由於華盛頓和以色列對伊朗的轟炸行動引發的中東衝突，油價在週一飆升至近每桶 120 美元，美元走強，美國國債收益率上升——這成為新興市場借貸成本的一個指標。</p>
</div><p>Although some of those moves have since been reversed, the outlook for inflation and global economic growth at a time of increasing geopolitical turmoil remains volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這些變動中的一些已經被逆轉，但在地緣政治動盪加劇的情況下，通脹和全球經濟增長的前景依然不穩定。</p>
</div><p>Just before the war broke out in late February, 10 out of a sample of 15 major emerging market central banks had been expected to ease policy rates by at least 10 basis points in the six months to follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在戰爭爆發前的 2 月底，15 家主要新興市場央行中有 10 家預計將在接下來的六個月內至少下調 10 個基點的政策利率。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, however, that number had shrunk to just six, and the amount of easing forecast for those still expected to lower rates had also decreased, JPMorgan calculations showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而到週二，這個數字縮減至僅六家，預計仍會降息的央行的降息幅度也有所減少，摩根大通的計算顯示。</p>
</div><p>“Central banks across emerging markets are likely to increasingly signal a ‘wait and see approach’ pending resolution of Iran conflict-related uncertainty,” said Petar Atanasov, Co-Head of Sovereign Research and Strategy at Gramercy Funds Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“新興市場的央行可能會越來越多地發出 ‘觀望’ 的信號，等待伊朗衝突相關不確定性的解決，” 格拉梅西基金管理公司的主權研究與戰略聯席負責人佩塔爾·阿塔納索夫表示。</p>
</div><h3>EMERGING EUROPE SHIFTS FROM EASING TO POSSIBLE TIGHTENING</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>新興歐洲從寬鬆轉向可能的緊縮</h3>
</div><p>Emerging markets are not alone. The past week has also seen a sharp scaling back of rate-cut bets for the U.S. Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新興市場並不孤單。過去一週，美國聯邦儲備委員會的降息預期也大幅回落。</p>
</div><p>But the shift appears most pronounced in emerging Europe, where market pricing for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland indicated a swing from easing to potential tightening in the next six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這種轉變在新興歐洲表現得尤為明顯，市場對捷克、匈牙利和波蘭的定價顯示出在接下來的六個月內從寬鬆轉向潛在緊縮。</p>
</div><p>Policymakers in Poland conceded that wiggle room for lowering rates had shrunk in recent days, while their peers in Hungary and the Czech Republic have acknowledged the risks and uncertainties reverberating from the Iran conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波蘭的政策制定者承認，近期降息的餘地已經縮小，而匈牙利和捷克的同行也承認了伊朗衝突帶來的風險和不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Reliance on energy imports was an important factor, said Juan Orts, CEEMEA Economist at Societe Generale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對能源進口的依賴是一個重要因素，法國興業銀行的 CEEMEA 經濟學家胡安·奧爾茨表示。</p>
</div><p>“In (Central and Eastern Europe) for example, the likes of Poland and Hungary are quite sensitive to oil prices,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“例如，在中東歐，波蘭和匈牙利對油價非常敏感，” 他説。</p>
</div><h3>A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN INFLATION RISKS AND GROWTH WOES</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在通脹風險與增長困境之間的平衡</h3>
</div><p>That uncertain outlook for crude and overall higher energy prices is at the heart of the balancing act facing emerging markets globally, analysts said, as central banks are forced to weigh concerns over rising price pressures against the impact on growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師表示，原油的不確定前景和整體能源價格的上漲是全球新興市場面臨的平衡難題的核心，因為央行被迫在上升的價格壓力與對增長的影響之間權衡。</p>
</div><p>“It’s a negative shock for growth,” said James Lord, Global Head of FX and EM Strategy at Morgan Stanley. “It’s a sort of tax on consumption, and it’s potentially something that will cause central banks to have tighter policy than they otherwise might given the inflation risks.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這是對增長的負面衝擊，” 摩根士丹利全球外匯和新興市場戰略負責人詹姆斯·洛德表示。“這是一種消費税，可能會導致央行採取比原本更緊縮的政策，因為通脹風險。”</p>
</div><p>In Latin America, markets priced less easing for Brazil, though the central bank, which is scheduled to publish its interest rate decision on March 18, is still expected to deliver a rate cut as policymakers face anaemic growth. The central bank paused an aggressive tightening cycle last July and has since kept the benchmark rate at 15%, the highest in nearly two decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在拉丁美洲，市場對巴西的降息預期減少，儘管中央銀行預計將在 3 月 18 日公佈利率決定，仍然預計會降息，因為政策制定者面臨疲軟的增長。中央銀行在去年 7 月暫停了激進的緊縮週期，此後將基準利率維持在 15%，為近 20 年來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Another flash point is Turkey - an energy importer highly sensitive to inflation pressures - with the central bank scheduled to publish its rate decision on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個焦點是土耳其——一個對通脹壓力高度敏感的能源進口國，中央銀行預計將在週四公佈其利率決定。</p>
</div><p>“We expect the CBRT (central bank) to respond by pausing its rate cutting cycle, awaiting further developments in terms of the likely duration of the conflict and related economic ripple effects,” said Gramercy’s Atanasov.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們預計土耳其中央銀行將通過暫停降息週期來回應，等待衝突的可能持續時間和相關經濟漣漪效應的進一步發展，” 格拉梅西的阿塔納索夫表示。</p>
</div><p>While the Middle East conflict with all its knock-on effects may prompt central banks to slow rate cuts or pause them in the near term, there is a lot less visibility down the line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然中東衝突及其連鎖反應可能促使央行在短期內放緩降息或暫停降息，但未來的可見性要低得多。</p>
</div><p>In 2021 and 2022, with economies still emerging from the pandemic and suddenly facing shocks related to the outbreak of the Ukraine war, emerging market central banks were among the first to hike and tackle inflation pressures, while many of their peers in developed economies falsely believed the situation would be transitory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 年和 2022 年，隨着經濟仍在從疫情中恢復，並突然面臨與烏克蘭戰爭爆發相關的衝擊，新興市場央行是最早加息並應對通脹壓力的央行之一，而許多發達經濟體的同行錯誤地認為情況會是暫時的。</p>
</div><p>Once again, much will hinge on central bankers’ judgement on how lasting the energy price rise and subsequent inflationary fallout will be, South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago told Reuters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再次強調，未來的許多事情將取決於央行行長對能源價格上漲及其後續通脹影響的持續性的判斷，南非儲備銀行行長萊塞賈·卡尼亞戈告訴路透社。</p>
</div><p>Underestimating its persistence would require a more aggressive - and more costly - stance down the line, while moving early to tackle inflation would allow for smoother policy actions over a period of time, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低估其持續性將需要在未來採取更激進且更昂貴的立場，而及早應對通脹將允許在一段時間內更平穩的政策行動，” 他説。</p>
</div><p>“That was the lesson of 2021⁄2022,” Kganyago said. “The central banks that started to act early found that they didn’t have to act aggressively … in one step, which is what ended up happening with the central banks that only reacted in the second half of 2022.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這就是 2021/2022 年的教訓，” 卡尼亞戈説。“那些早期採取行動的央行發現，他們不必採取激進的措施……一步到位，這正是那些在 2022 年下半年才反應的央行所經歷的情況。”</p>
</div><p>Interest rate expectations have moved sharply for EM central banks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新興市場央行的利率預期已大幅變化</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4cI4rvz" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4cI4rvz"/></p>

ANALYSIS-Iran-linked energy spike shrinks emerging markets' room for rate cuts

- 中東衝突導致油價飆升，影響全球經濟前景和通貨膨脹預期。  
- 新興市場央行降低利率預期減少，出現等待觀望的態度。  
- 各國面臨通脹和經濟增長之間的平衡困境。

Reuters

Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF

iShares MSCI Emerging Mkts Val Fac ETF

FIL Ltd.

iShares MSCI新興市場綜合因素ETF

iShares MSCI EM Ex-China

2 倍做多標普能源行業指數 ETF - ProShares

WisdomTree新興市場高收益股票基金

Vanguard富時新興市場指數ETF

iShares安碩核心MSCI新興市場ETF

Dimensional Emerging Markets Value ETF

Avantis Emerging Markets Value ETF

SPDR新興市場投資組合ETF

iShares MSCI新興市場ETF

Schwab新興市場股票ETF

分析 - 與伊朗相關的能源價格飆升縮小了新興市場降息的餘地