<ul>
<li>歐元/美元的預測受到削弱，因為地緣政治緊張局勢推高了油價和美元</li>
<li>能源風險：伊朗警告稱將從 “互相打擊” 轉向 “持續打擊”，因為國際能源署的緊急石油儲備釋放未能產生預期效果</li>
<li>歐元/美元技術分析顯示低於 1.15 美元</li>
</ul>
<p>正如過去幾天的情況一樣，現在唯一重要的就是原油。而且，由於 EIA 創紀錄的石油儲備釋放未能在今天將價格壓低，這使得風險偏好低迷，股市掙扎，石油進口地區的貨幣走低。最新的美國通脹數據幾乎沒有對外匯市場造成任何波動。在油價仍然高企的背景下，以及價格可能進一步上漲的潛力，我們對歐元/美元的預測保持謹慎的負面態度。</p>
<p>稍後會討論油價，但首先讓我們討論歐元/美元，因為它看起來有可能出現突破。</p>
<h2>歐元/美元預測：美元在地緣政治緊張局勢中繼續保持支撐</h2>
<p>歐元/美元受到油價上漲導致的歐元疲軟和美元走強的雙重驅動。隨着中東地緣政治緊張局勢推高油價並給全球市場注入新的不確定性，美元再次找到支撐，同時傷害了石油進口經濟地區的貨幣。隨着布倫特原油價格回升至每桶 90 美元附近，投資者似乎傾向於將美元作為防禦性投資，儘管最新的通脹數據顯示，進入 2 月份時價格壓力相對平穩。按年計算，整體通脹保持在 2.4%，與預期一致，且與 1 月份持平。在最新的油價飆升之前，通脹表現相對温和。這是一個關鍵的警告。能源成本往往會影響通脹預期，如果原油價格繼續攀升至每桶 100 美元，市場可能會開始定價美聯儲收緊政策的風險，而不是進一步放鬆。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20eurusd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>在這種背景下，歐元/美元的預測偏向看跌，我們可能會看到該貨幣對在日線收盤時跌破關鍵的 1.1578 水平——1 月份的低點。儘管我們在最近幾天看到歐元/美元多次跌破該水平，但在收盤時未能保持在該水平以下。如果最終突破，那麼 1.1500 可能是從這裏開始的直接目標，而 2025 年 8 月的低點 1.1391 將是下一個明顯的下行目標。阻力現在被視為在 1.1606、1.1637 和 1.1670 附近。</p>
<h2>原油幾乎沒有反應，EIA 動用石油儲備 - 原因在這裏</h2>
<p>因此，國際能源署已確認成員國將從緊急儲備中釋放 4 億桶石油，以幫助穩定油價。400 萬桶能在多大程度上彌補伊朗衝突對全球石油供應的干擾仍有待觀察。由於衝突已進入第 12 天，石油分析師不確定這一釋放量是否足夠。但從油價的反應來看，市場似乎已經對從儲備中釋放 4 億桶的消息進行了消化。價格幾乎沒有波動。看起來投資者並不相信這會產生預期效果，並可能預計霍爾木茲海峽的石油流動將長期有效關閉，現在伊朗暗示將從 “互相打擊” 轉向 “持續打擊”。</p>
<h2>中東緊張局勢將油價推回 90 美元附近</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20brent%20updated.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20brent%20updated.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>在伊朗關於潛在石油流動中斷的新警告後，原油價格也上漲。據報道，德黑蘭表示正在將其軍事戰略從 “互相打擊” 轉向 “持續打擊”，這一舉動表明衝突可能加劇而不是平息。</p>
<p>伊朗官員還對全球石油供應發出了嚴厲警告。一位軍事發言人 reportedly 表示，美國將無法控制油價，同時聲稱伊朗不會允許 “即使一升石油” 到達美國、以色列或他們的合作伙伴。</p>
<p>更值得注意的是，伊朗暗示，任何前往這些目的地的船隻或油輪都可能成為合法目標，這引發了對航運路線和更廣泛供應中斷的擔憂。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

歐元 做多 - CurrencyShares

能源業 ETF - SPDR

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

<p>EUR/USD 的預測受到地緣政治緊張局勢，特別是伊朗威脅加大軍事行動的影響，油價上漲帶來了負面影響。儘管國際能源署（IEA）大幅釋放了 4 億桶應急儲備，但油價依然高企，影響了風險偏好和貨幣價值。預計 EUR/USD 可能會跌破關鍵水平 1.1578，目標設定在 1.1500 和 1.1391。隨着全球市場的不確定性持續增強，美元的走強被視為一種防禦性策略</p>

<ul>
<li>EUR/USD forecast remains undermined as geopolitical tensions lift oil prices and the dollar</li>
<li>Energy risk: Iran warns it is switching from “reciprocal hits” to “continuous strikes” as IEA emergency oil reserve release not having the desired impact</li>
<li>EUR/USD technical analysis points to sub $1.15</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>歐元/美元的預測受到削弱，因為地緣政治緊張局勢推高了油價和美元</li>
<li>能源風險：伊朗警告稱將從 “互相打擊” 轉向 “持續打擊”，因為國際能源署的緊急石油儲備釋放未能產生預期效果</li>
<li>歐元/美元技術分析顯示低於 1.15 美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>As has been the case in the last several days, nothing else but crude oil matters right now. And the with the EIA’s record oil reserves release unable to push prices lower today, this is keeping risk appetite downbeat, with stock markets struggling and currencies of oil importing regions lower. The latest US inflation data barely caused any movements in FX. Against a backdrop of still elevated oil prices, and the potential for prices to push even higher, we maintain a cautiously negative EUR/USD forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如過去幾天的情況一樣，現在唯一重要的就是原油。而且，由於 EIA 創紀錄的石油儲備釋放未能在今天將價格壓低，這使得風險偏好低迷，股市掙扎，石油進口地區的貨幣走低。最新的美國通脹數據幾乎沒有對外匯市場造成任何波動。在油價仍然高企的背景下，以及價格可能進一步上漲的潛力，我們對歐元/美元的預測保持謹慎的負面態度。</p>
</div><p>More on oil prices later but first let’s discuss the EUR/USD as it looks poised for a potential breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稍後會討論油價，但首先讓我們討論歐元/美元，因為它看起來有可能出現突破。</p>
</div><h2>EUR/USD forecast: Dollar continues to remain support on geopolitical tensions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歐元/美元預測：美元在地緣政治緊張局勢中繼續保持支撐</h2>
</div><p>The EUR/USD is driven by both a weakening euro due to the rising oil prices, but also a strengthening US dollar. The greenback is continuing to find support again as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher and inject fresh uncertainty into global markets, while hurting currencies of oil-importing economic regions. With Brent crude climbing back towards $90 a barrel, investors appear to be leaning toward the greenback as a defensive play, even as the latest inflation data suggests price pressures were fairly calm heading into February. On an annual basis, headline inflation held at 2.4%, matching forecasts and unchanged from January. Inflation looked reasonably well behaved before the latest surge in oil prices. That’s the key caveat. Energy costs have a habit of feeding through into inflation expectations, and if crude continues climbing towards $100 a barrel, the market may start pricing in the risk of the Fed tightening, not loosening further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐元/美元受到油價上漲導致的歐元疲軟和美元走強的雙重驅動。隨着中東地緣政治緊張局勢推高油價並給全球市場注入新的不確定性，美元再次找到支撐，同時傷害了石油進口經濟地區的貨幣。隨着布倫特原油價格回升至每桶 90 美元附近，投資者似乎傾向於將美元作為防禦性投資，儘管最新的通脹數據顯示，進入 2 月份時價格壓力相對平穩。按年計算，整體通脹保持在 2.4%，與預期一致，且與 1 月份持平。在最新的油價飆升之前，通脹表現相對温和。這是一個關鍵的警告。能源成本往往會影響通脹預期，如果原油價格繼續攀升至每桶 100 美元，市場可能會開始定價美聯儲收緊政策的風險，而不是進一步放鬆。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20eurusd.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD forecast leans bearish, and we could see the pair break below the key 1.1578 level – the low from January – on a daily closing basis. While we have seen the EUR/USD go below this level multiple times in recent days, it hasn’t been able to hold below it on a closing basis. If it finally cracks then 1.1500 could be the immediate target from here, with the August 2025 low of 1.1391 being the next obvious downside target. Resistance is now seen around 1.1606m 1.1637 and 1.1670.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，歐元/美元的預測偏向看跌，我們可能會看到該貨幣對在日線收盤時跌破關鍵的 1.1578 水平——1 月份的低點。儘管我們在最近幾天看到歐元/美元多次跌破該水平，但在收盤時未能保持在該水平以下。如果最終突破，那麼 1.1500 可能是從這裏開始的直接目標，而 2025 年 8 月的低點 1.1391 將是下一個明顯的下行目標。阻力現在被視為在 1.1606、1.1637 和 1.1670 附近。</p>
</div><h2>Crude oil barely reacts as EIA tap oil reserves - here's why</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油幾乎沒有反應，EIA 動用石油儲備 - 原因在這裏</h2>
</div><p>So, the IEA has confirmed that member states will release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to help stabilise oil prices. How much of the disruption to global oil supplies from the Iran conflict that 400 million will actually make up for remains to be seen. It is difficult to say how much has been lost now that we are in day 12 of the conflict, with oil analysts unsure whether this release amount is enough. But judging by the reaction of oil prices, it looks like the market had discounted the release of 400 million barrels from reserves already. Prices have barely flinched. It looks like investors are not convinced this will have the desired effect and are probably expecting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz to remain effectively closed for a long time, now with Iran suggesting it is switching from “reciprocal hits” to “continuous strikes.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，國際能源署已確認成員國將從緊急儲備中釋放 4 億桶石油，以幫助穩定油價。400 萬桶能在多大程度上彌補伊朗衝突對全球石油供應的干擾仍有待觀察。由於衝突已進入第 12 天，石油分析師不確定這一釋放量是否足夠。但從油價的反應來看，市場似乎已經對從儲備中釋放 4 億桶的消息進行了消化。價格幾乎沒有波動。看起來投資者並不相信這會產生預期效果，並可能預計霍爾木茲海峽的石油流動將長期有效關閉，現在伊朗暗示將從 “互相打擊” 轉向 “持續打擊”。</p>
</div><h2>Middle East tensions push oil back toward $90</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中東緊張局勢將油價推回 90 美元附近</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20brent%20updated.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.11%20brent%20updated.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Crude oil prices have also moved higher after fresh warnings from Iran about the potential disruption of oil flows. According to reports, Tehran says it is shifting its military strategy from “reciprocal hits” to “continuous strikes,” a move that suggests the conflict could intensify rather than cool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗關於潛在石油流動中斷的新警告後，原油價格也上漲。據報道，德黑蘭表示正在將其軍事戰略從 “互相打擊” 轉向 “持續打擊”，這一舉動表明衝突可能加劇而不是平息。</p>
</div><p>Iranian officials also issued stark warnings about global oil supply. One military spokesperson reportedly said the United States would not be able to control oil prices, while also claiming Iran would not allow “even one litre of oil” to reach the US, Israel or their partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗官員還對全球石油供應發出了嚴厲警告。一位軍事發言人 reportedly 表示，美國將無法控制油價，同時聲稱伊朗不會允許 “即使一升石油” 到達美國、以色列或他們的合作伙伴。</p>
</div><p>More notably, Iran suggested that any vessel or tanker heading toward those destinations could become a legitimate target, raising concerns about shipping routes and broader supply disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更值得注意的是，伊朗暗示，任何前往這些目的地的船隻或油輪都可能成為合法目標，這引發了對航運路線和更廣泛供應中斷的擔憂。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

EUR/USD forecast undermined as crude holds ground despite strategic oil reserves release

Forex

儘管戰略石油儲備被釋放，原油價格依然堅挺，導致歐元/美元的預測受到削弱