<p>交易周繼續進行，目前在過去的兩個交易日中，<strong>美元/日元</strong> 開始顯示出重新的買入傾向，短期內累計漲幅超過 <strong>0.7%</strong>，有利於美元，並突顯出日元的持續疲軟。</p>
<p>目前，隨着今天早些時候美國通脹數據的發佈，買入壓力獲得了動力，使市場能夠預期美聯儲可能的政策動態。在日本銀行沒有出現重大意外的情況下，美元似乎受益於一種可能在未來幾天仍然相關的買入傾向。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2><strong>通脹數據日</strong></h2>
<p>在今天的交易中，美國發布了 2 月份的通脹數據。年同比 <strong>CPI</strong> 為 <strong>2.4%</strong>，完全符合預期，與之前的讀數持平。</p>
<p>目前，基於近期趨勢，通脹似乎在 2026 年初顯示出明顯的緩和。然而，重要的是要注意，它仍略高於美聯儲的目標 <strong>2.00%</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/United_States_Inflation_Rate_4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="820" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/United_States_Inflation_Rate_4.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
<p>也就是説，必須考慮的是，最近的通脹發佈伴隨着評論，表明未來幾個月價格可能不會出現明顯的減速。這主要是因為本週觀察到的原油價格的近期飆升尚未反映在今天的數據中，這可能最終會增加全球能源成本，並在未來的讀數中產生額外的通脹壓力。</p>
<p>事實上，儘管通脹數據沒有顯示出明顯的加速，但美聯儲的預期中性貨幣政策展望並沒有改變。這部分是由於持續的預期，即通脹可能會重新加速。</p>
<p>根據 <strong>CME 集團</strong>，利率概率表顯示，基準利率在 3 月 18 日會議上保持在當前 <strong>3.75%</strong> 水平的可能性為 <strong>97.3%</strong>。此外，預計在今年 7 月 29 日的會議上，利率保持不變的概率超過 <strong>50%</strong>。這突顯了圍繞美聯儲的強中性預期，即使在今天的通脹數據發佈之後。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/cme0311.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="451" height="407" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/cme0311.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CMEGROUP</em></p>
<p>這一發展尤其重要，因為只要對穩定利率的預期持續存在，美國國債市場可能會繼續吸引投資。長期的穩定利率使得 10 年期國債收益率保持吸引力，這些債券目前被視為關鍵的避險資產之一。</p>
<p>因此，如果這種動態持續，持續的外國資本流入美國可能會增強美元相對於日元的需求，可能在短期內進一步加大美元/日元的買入壓力。</p>
<h2><strong>日本銀行沒有驚喜</strong></h2>
<p>儘管日本銀行的基準利率目前為 <strong>0.75%</strong>，是幾十年來的最高水平之一，但並沒有明確的信號或確認表明利率將在即將召開的會議上持續上升，包括定於 3 月 18 日至 19 日的下一次會議。</p>
<p>目前，中央銀行和政府之間的觀點仍然存在分歧。雖然日本銀行認為通脹上升是一個越來越相關的因素，但政府並未完全認同進一步加息的想法。這創造了一個普遍謹慎的環境，可能會影響即將做出的決策中的中性貨幣政策立場。</p>
<p>考慮到這一點，重要的是要認識到，日本相對較低的利率可能降低了日元計價投資的吸引力，相較於美元等貨幣資產。除非市場感知到明確且一致的信號，表明日本利率可能進一步上升，否則在短期內可能難以建立對日元的持續需求。這反過來可能繼續支持未來幾天美元/日元的買入壓力。</p>
<h2><strong>美元/日元的技術展望</strong></h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDJPY_2026-03-11_12-53-07.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1530" height="917" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDJPY_2026-03-11_12-53-07.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>沒有什麼能阻止上漲趨勢：</strong> 在過去幾個月中，美元/日元的平均價格走勢保持了一條持續的上升趨勢線，當前結構沒有受到顯著賣出動作的威脅。買入壓力再次顯示出主導力量，如果新的高點開始形成，這可能反映出在未來幾天內當前上升趨勢的更明顯延伸。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>RSI：</strong> RSI 保持在中性 50 水平以上，表明過去 14 個交易日的平均買入動能變得相關。然而，該指標接近 70 水平——超買閾值，這可能暗示買入壓力的潛在過剩，併為短期的修正回調打開了大門。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>MACD：</strong> MACD 直方圖保持在零線以上，表明買入傾向繼續主導短期移動平均動能。只要這種動態持續，買入壓力在即將到來的交易中可能仍然相關。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>關鍵水平：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>159.004 – 關鍵阻力：</strong> 對應於 2026 年的高點，是需要關注的主要看漲障礙。持續突破該水平可能鞏固主導的買入傾向，並使當前趨勢線的更激進延伸成為可能。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>156.301 – 短期障礙：</strong> 與 50 期移動平均線對齊的水平，可能成為短期修正回調的參考點。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>153.900 – 關鍵支撐位：</strong> 與近期低點相對應的水平。若跌破該區域，可能會威脅當前的看漲結構，並在接下來的交易中打開更明顯的賣出傾向。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>撰寫者：Julian Pineda，CFA，CMT – 市場分析師</strong></p>
<p><strong>關注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>

日元指數 ETF - CurrencyShares

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

德銀美元指數 做空 - PowerShares

2 倍做多日圓 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>美元/日元貨幣對近期顯示出重新的買入傾向，最近上漲超過 0.7%，這主要受到美國通脹數據的推動，CPI 為 2.4%。儘管通脹保持穩定，但對美聯儲利率不變的預期依然存在，增強了美元的吸引力。日本銀行缺乏明確的加息信號也導致日元疲軟。技術指標顯示持續的買入動能，關鍵阻力位在 159.004。總體來看，短期內美元/日元的前景仍然看漲，除非貨幣政策或經濟狀況發生重大變化</p>

<p>The trading week continues and, for now, over the last two sessions, <strong>USD/JPY</strong> has begun to show a renewed buying bias, accumulating gains of more than <strong>0.7%</strong> in the short term in favor of the US dollar and highlighting consistent weakness in the Japanese yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易周繼續進行，目前在過去的兩個交易日中，<strong>美元/日元</strong> 開始顯示出重新的買入傾向，短期內累計漲幅超過 <strong>0.7%</strong>，有利於美元，並突顯出日元的持續疲軟。</p>
</div><p>At the moment, buying pressure has gained traction following the release of US inflation data earlier today, allowing markets to anticipate a potential policy dynamic from the Federal Reserve. In the absence of meaningful surprises from the Bank of Japan, the dollar appears to be benefiting from a buying bias that could remain relevant in the coming sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，隨着今天早些時候美國通脹數據的發佈，買入壓力獲得了動力，使市場能夠預期美聯儲可能的政策動態。在日本銀行沒有出現重大意外的情況下，美元似乎受益於一種可能在未來幾天仍然相關的買入傾向。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2><strong>Inflation Data Day</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>通脹數據日</strong></h2>
</div><p>During today’s session, inflation data for February in the United States were released. The annual <strong>CPI (Y/Y)</strong> came in at <strong>2.4%</strong>, exactly in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous reading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天的交易中，美國發布了 2 月份的通脹數據。年同比 <strong>CPI</strong> 為 <strong>2.4%</strong>，完全符合預期，與之前的讀數持平。</p>
</div><p>For now, inflation appears to have shown meaningful moderation in the early months of 2026 based on recent trends. However, it is important to note that it remains slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target of <strong>2.00%</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，基於近期趨勢，通脹似乎在 2026 年初顯示出明顯的緩和。然而，重要的是要注意，它仍略高於美聯儲的目標 <strong>2.00%</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/United_States_Inflation_Rate_4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/United_States_Inflation_Rate_4.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: TradingEconomics</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：TradingEconomics</em></p>
</div><p>That said, what must be considered is that the recent inflation release was accompanied by commentary suggesting that a clear deceleration in prices may not materialize in the coming months. This is largely because the recent spike in crude oil prices observed this week has not yet been reflected in today’s data, and this could eventually increase global energy costs and generate additional inflationary pressures in future readings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，必須考慮的是，最近的通脹發佈伴隨着評論，表明未來幾個月價格可能不會出現明顯的減速。這主要是因為本週觀察到的原油價格的近期飆升尚未反映在今天的數據中，這可能最終會增加全球能源成本，並在未來的讀數中產生額外的通脹壓力。</p>
</div><p>In fact, despite the inflation data not showing a meaningful acceleration, the expected neutral monetary outlook for the Federal Reserve has not changed. This is partly due to ongoing expectations that inflation could reaccelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，儘管通脹數據沒有顯示出明顯的加速，但美聯儲的預期中性貨幣政策展望並沒有改變。這部分是由於持續的預期，即通脹可能會重新加速。</p>
</div><p>According to <strong>CME Group</strong>, the rate probability table shows a <strong>97.3%</strong> likelihood that the benchmark rate will remain at the current <strong>3.75%</strong> level for the March 18 meeting. Additionally, there is more than a <strong>50%</strong> probability that rates will remain unchanged through the July 29 meeting of this year. This highlights the prevailing sense of strong neutrality surrounding the Federal Reserve, even after today’s inflation data release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 <strong>CME 集團</strong>，利率概率表顯示，基準利率在 3 月 18 日會議上保持在當前 <strong>3.75%</strong> 水平的可能性為 <strong>97.3%</strong>。此外，預計在今年 7 月 29 日的會議上，利率保持不變的概率超過 <strong>50%</strong>。這突顯了圍繞美聯儲的強中性預期，即使在今天的通脹數據發佈之後。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/cme0311.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/cme0311.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CMEGROUP</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CMEGROUP</em></p>
</div><p>This development is particularly relevant because as long as expectations for stable interest rates persist, the US Treasury bond market may continue to gain attractiveness. A prolonged period of steady rates allows 10-year Treasury yields to remain appealing, and these bonds are currently considered one of the key safe-haven assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一發展尤其重要，因為只要對穩定利率的預期持續存在，美國國債市場可能會繼續吸引投資。長期的穩定利率使得 10 年期國債收益率保持吸引力，這些債券目前被視為關鍵的避險資產之一。</p>
</div><p>As a result, if this dynamic continues, consistent foreign capital inflows into the United States may strengthen dollar demand relative to the yen, potentially reinforcing buying pressure in USD/JPY in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，如果這種動態持續，持續的外國資本流入美國可能會增強美元相對於日元的需求，可能在短期內進一步加大美元/日元的買入壓力。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Bank of Japan Does Not Surprise</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>日本銀行沒有驚喜</strong></h2>
</div><p>Although the Bank of Japan’s benchmark rate currently stands at <strong>0.75%</strong>, one of the highest levels seen in decades, there has been no clear signal or confirmation that rates will continue to rise consistently in upcoming meetings, including the next one scheduled between March 18 and 19.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管日本銀行的基準利率目前為 <strong>0.75%</strong>，是幾十年來的最高水平之一，但並沒有明確的信號或確認表明利率將在即將召開的會議上持續上升，包括定於 3 月 18 日至 19 日的下一次會議。</p>
</div><p>For now, perspectives between the central bank and the government remain divided. While the Bank of Japan views rising inflation as an increasingly relevant factor, the government is not fully aligned with the idea of further rate hikes. This has created a broadly cautious environment that could influence a neutral monetary policy stance in upcoming decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，中央銀行和政府之間的觀點仍然存在分歧。雖然日本銀行認為通脹上升是一個越來越相關的因素，但政府並未完全認同進一步加息的想法。這創造了一個普遍謹慎的環境，可能會影響即將做出的決策中的中性貨幣政策立場。</p>
</div><p>With this in mind, it is important to recognize that Japan’s relatively low interest rate may be reducing the appeal of yen-denominated investments compared to assets in currencies such as the US dollar. Unless markets perceive clear and consistent signals that Japanese interest rates could rise further, it may remain difficult to establish sustained demand for the yen in the short term. This, in turn, could continue to support buying pressure in USD/JPY in the coming sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這一點，重要的是要認識到，日本相對較低的利率可能降低了日元計價投資的吸引力，相較於美元等貨幣資產。除非市場感知到明確且一致的信號，表明日本利率可能進一步上升，否則在短期內可能難以建立對日元的持續需求。這反過來可能繼續支持未來幾天美元/日元的買入壓力。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Technical Outlook for USD/JPY</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美元/日元的技術展望</strong></h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDJPY_2026-03-11_12-53-07.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDJPY_2026-03-11_12-53-07.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Nothing Stops the Uptrend:</strong> For several months, the average price movements of USD/JPY have maintained a consistent upward trendline, which remains intact as no significant selling moves have threatened the current structure. Buying pressure has once again shown dominant strength, and if new highs begin to form, this could reflect a more pronounced extension of the prevailing uptrend in the coming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>沒有什麼能阻止上漲趨勢：</strong> 在過去幾個月中，美元/日元的平均價格走勢保持了一條持續的上升趨勢線，當前結構沒有受到顯著賣出動作的威脅。買入壓力再次顯示出主導力量，如果新的高點開始形成，這可能反映出在未來幾天內當前上升趨勢的更明顯延伸。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>RSI:</strong> The RSI remains above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that average buying momentum over the last 14 sessions has gained relevance. However, the indicator is approaching the 70 level — the overbought threshold — which may signal a potential excess of buying pressure and open the door for short-term corrective pullbacks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>RSI：</strong> RSI 保持在中性 50 水平以上，表明過去 14 個交易日的平均買入動能變得相關。然而，該指標接近 70 水平——超買閾值，這可能暗示買入壓力的潛在過剩，併為短期的修正回調打開了大門。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>MACD:</strong> The MACD histogram remains above the zero line, indicating that the buying bias continues to dominate short-term moving average momentum. As long as this dynamic persists, buying pressure may remain relevant in upcoming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>MACD：</strong> MACD 直方圖保持在零線以上，表明買入傾向繼續主導短期移動平均動能。只要這種動態持續，買入壓力在即將到來的交易中可能仍然相關。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Key Levels:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>關鍵水平：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>159.004 – Key Resistance:</strong> Area corresponding to the 2026 highs and the main bullish barrier to monitor. A sustained move above this level could consolidate a dominant buying bias and enable a more aggressive extension of the current trendline.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>159.004 – 關鍵阻力：</strong> 對應於 2026 年的高點，是需要關注的主要看漲障礙。持續突破該水平可能鞏固主導的買入傾向，並使當前趨勢線的更激進延伸成為可能。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>156.301 – Near-Term Barrier:</strong> Level aligned with the 50-period moving average and a potential reference point for short-term corrective pullbacks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>156.301 – 短期障礙：</strong> 與 50 期移動平均線對齊的水平，可能成為短期修正回調的參考點。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>153.900 – Key Support:</strong> Level corresponding to recent lows. Moves below this area could threaten the current bullish structure and open the door to a more relevant selling bias in the coming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>153.900 – 關鍵支撐位：</strong> 與近期低點相對應的水平。若跌破該區域，可能會威脅當前的看漲結構，並在接下來的交易中打開更明顯的賣出傾向。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>撰寫者：Julian Pineda，CFA，CMT – 市場分析師</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Follow him on:</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>關注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
</div>

美元/日元最新動態：美國消費者價格指數發佈後，日元迅速貶值