<p>【新加坡】新加坡銀行預計在未來幾個月將面臨 “温和的經營環境”，儘管最近地緣政治緊張局勢的上升可能進一步增加了該行業前景的波動性，RHB 在週二（3 月 10 日）的報告中表示。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，RHB 將 DBS 和 OCBC 列為其首選，DBS 因其每股股息的可見性更好和約 6% 的更高股息收益率而 “略微領先”。它還表示，在不確定的環境中，更傾向於資產質量指標更強的銀行。</p>
<p>至於 UOB，券商表示，儘管預計其 2026 財年的淨收入將因信貸成本正常化而出現最強勁的反彈，但仍可能存在對其資產質量和準備金的 “持續擔憂”。</p>
<p>該券商對銀行業維持 “中性” 立場，對 DBS 和 OCBC 給予 “買入” 評級。報告中未對 UOB 給出評級。</p>
<p>RHB 對 DBS 的目標價為 63.50 新元，較該股週三收盤價 55.72 新元高出近 14%。與此同時，該券商對 OCBC 的目標價為 23.45 新元，較週三收盤價 20.86 新元高出 12.4%。</p>
<p>總體而言，RHB 表示當地銀行符合其預期。</p>
<p>然而，它指出，由於貸款人面臨低於經營收入線的偏差，DBS 的業績處於估計範圍的下限。DBS 因手續費和財務及投資收入下降而出現了季度環比大幅下滑。</p>
<p>在股息方面，DBS 和 OCBC 均符合預期，而 UOB 則 “略有失誤”。</p>
<p>UOB 的每股股息在 2025 財年第四季度同比下降 39%，降至 0.71 新元，去年同期為 1.17 新元。</p>
<p>與此同時，DBS 的每股股息上漲 35%，達到 0.81 新元，去年同期為 0.60 新元，而 OCBC 的每股股息則增加 2%，達到 0.58 新元，去年同期為 0.57 新元。</p>
<h2>當地銀行落後</h2>
<p>RHB 指出，儘管新加坡銀行在 2026 年開局温和，但仍落後於區域同行。</p>
<p>“儘管該行業年初至今的總回報處於正值，但仍落後於泰國和馬來西亞等市場的同行，而在國內，該行業則落後於更廣泛的市場指數，” RHB 指出。</p>
<p>它強調，特別是 DBS 由於 2025 財年第四季度的業績處於 “預期的下限”，而成為 “落後者”。與同行相比，其業績相對較弱，引發了對潛在盈利下調的擔憂。</p>
<p>儘管盈利反彈，UOB 年初至今的總回報仍然疲軟。</p>
<p>OCBC 是唯一一家超出 RHB 預期的當地銀行，2025 財年第四季度淨利潤同比增長，並對其財富業務持積極展望。</p>
<p>“此外，管理層傾向於利用其 25 億新元資本回報計劃的餘額進行特別股息，而非在當前估值水平下進行股票回購，這應會受到長期股東的歡迎，” 報告指出。</p>
<h2>行業展望</h2>
<p>RHB 將該行業 2026 財年的淨利潤共識下調 1%，但其 2027 財年的盈利預測保持 “相對不變”。DBS 的盈利預測分別下調 2% 和 1% 至 2026 財年和 2027 財年。</p>
<p>在 2025 財年業績發佈後，預計 UOB 的 2026 財年淨利潤將下降 1%，而 OCBC 的 2027 財年盈利預測則上調 1%。</p>
<p>預計銀行業的盈利將在 2026 財年同比反彈 5%，這得益於信貸成本降低 23 個基點，以及非利息收入的持續增長。</p>
<p>對銀行盈利的潛在上行風險包括，如果美國聯邦儲備委員會降息，淨利差強於預期，以及新加坡隔夜利率平均值（Sora）壓力減輕，這一利率是新加坡的關鍵基準利率。</p>
<p>盈利也可能受到強勁的財富管理活動和提升手續費收入的財務流動的支持，同時信貸成本低於預期。</p>
<p>在下行方面，貸款增長疲軟可能對該行業造成壓力，而來自財務和市場活動的非利息收入可能會減弱。流動性流入的激增也可能使 Sora 低於預期，從而對利差施加額外壓力。</p>

華僑銀行

星展集團控股

<p>RHB 對新加坡銀行 DBS 和 OCBC 持樂觀態度，儘管預計由於地緣政治緊張局勢，運營環境將温和且波動性增加。RHB 對這兩家銀行維持 “買入” 評級，目標價格分別設定為 63.50 新元（S$）和 23.45 新元（S$）。儘管 DBS 的業績處於預期的下限，但 OCBC 表現優於預期。該券商將該行業 2026 財年的淨利潤預測下調了 1%，但預計收益將同比反彈 5%，這得益於較低的信貸成本和非利息收入的增長</p>

<p>[SINGAPORE] Singapore banks are expected to face a “modest operating environment” in the months ahead, although the recent rise in geopolitical tensions has likely injected further volatility into the sector’s outlook, said RHB in a Tuesday (Mar 10) note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>【新加坡】新加坡銀行預計在未來幾個月將面臨 “温和的經營環境”，儘管最近地緣政治緊張局勢的上升可能進一步增加了該行業前景的波動性，RHB 在週二（3 月 10 日）的報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, RHB named DBS and OCBC as its top picks, with DBS “slightly ahead” due to better dividend-per-share visibility and a higher dividend yield of about 6 per cent. It also said it prefers banks with stronger asset-quality metrics amid the uncertain environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，RHB 將 DBS 和 OCBC 列為其首選，DBS 因其每股股息的可見性更好和約 6% 的更高股息收益率而 “略微領先”。它還表示，在不確定的環境中，更傾向於資產質量指標更強的銀行。</p>
</div><p>As for UOB , the brokerage said that there could still be “lingering concerns” over its asset quality and provision buffers even though its forecasted net income for FY2026 is expected to chalk up the strongest rebound as credit cost normalises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至於 UOB，券商表示，儘管預計其 2026 財年的淨收入將因信貸成本正常化而出現最強勁的反彈，但仍可能存在對其資產質量和準備金的 “持續擔憂”。</p>
</div><p>The brokerage maintained its “neutral” stance on the banking sector, with a “buy” rating for DBS and OCBC. A rating for UOB was not given in the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該券商對銀行業維持 “中性” 立場，對 DBS 和 OCBC 給予 “買入” 評級。報告中未對 UOB 給出評級。</p>
</div><p>RHB’s target price of S$63.50 for DBS was almost 14 per cent higher than the counter’s Wednesday closing price of S$55.72. Meanwhile, the brokerage’s target price of S$23.45 for OCBC was 12.4 per cent higher than the closing price of S$20.86 on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RHB 對 DBS 的目標價為 63.50 新元，較該股週三收盤價 55.72 新元高出近 14%。與此同時，該券商對 OCBC 的目標價為 23.45 新元，較週三收盤價 20.86 新元高出 12.4%。</p>
</div><p>Overall, RHB said that the local banks met its expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，RHB 表示當地銀行符合其預期。</p>
</div><p>However, it noted that DBS results came in at the lower end of the estimate range due to the lender facing deviations below the operating income line. DBS posted a sharp quarter-on-quarter drop caused by lower fees and treasury and investment income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，它指出，由於貸款人面臨低於經營收入線的偏差，DBS 的業績處於估計範圍的下限。DBS 因手續費和財務及投資收入下降而出現了季度環比大幅下滑。</p>
</div><p>Dividend wise, both DBS and OCBC met estimates, though UOB was “a slight miss”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股息方面，DBS 和 OCBC 均符合預期，而 UOB 則 “略有失誤”。</p>
</div><p>UOB’s dividend per share fell 39 per cent year on year to S$0.71 in Q4 FY2025, from S$1.17 in the corresponding year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UOB 的每股股息在 2025 財年第四季度同比下降 39%，降至 0.71 新元，去年同期為 1.17 新元。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, DBS’ dividend per share climbed 35 per cent to S$0.81, from S$0.60, while OCBC’s increased by 2 per cent to S$0.58, from S$0.57.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，DBS 的每股股息上漲 35%，達到 0.81 新元，去年同期為 0.60 新元，而 OCBC 的每股股息則增加 2%，達到 0.58 新元，去年同期為 0.57 新元。</p>
</div><h2>Local banks lagging</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>當地銀行落後</h2>
</div><p>RHB noted that while Singapore banks started 2026 on a modest note, they still fall behind regional peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RHB 指出，儘管新加坡銀行在 2026 年開局温和，但仍落後於區域同行。</p>
</div><p>“While the sector’s year-to-date total returns is in positive territory, it has lagged that of peers in markets such as Thailand and Malaysia while domestically, the sector is trailing the broader market index,” RHB noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“儘管該行業年初至今的總回報處於正值，但仍落後於泰國和馬來西亞等市場的同行，而在國內，該行業則落後於更廣泛的市場指數，” RHB 指出。</p>
</div><p>It highlighted that DBS in particular was a “laggard” due to a combination of Q4 FY2025 results being at the “lower end of expectations”. It also had a comparatively softer set of results compared to peers, stoking concerns of potential earnings downgrades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它強調，特別是 DBS 由於 2025 財年第四季度的業績處於 “預期的下限”，而成為 “落後者”。與同行相比，其業績相對較弱，引發了對潛在盈利下調的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>UOB’s year-to-date total returns remained muted despite the earnings rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管盈利反彈，UOB 年初至今的總回報仍然疲軟。</p>
</div><p>OCBC was the only local bank that outperformed RHB’s expectations, posting a positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q4 2025, alongside a positive outlook for its wealth business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OCBC 是唯一一家超出 RHB 預期的當地銀行，2025 財年第四季度淨利潤同比增長，並對其財富業務持積極展望。</p>
</div><p>“In addition, management’s preference to utilise the balance of its S$2.5 billion capital return plan for special dividends over share buybacks given current valuation levels should be well received by long term shareholders,” noted the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“此外，管理層傾向於利用其 25 億新元資本回報計劃的餘額進行特別股息，而非在當前估值水平下進行股票回購，這應會受到長期股東的歡迎，” 報告指出。</p>
</div><h2>Sector outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>行業展望</h2>
</div><p>RHB lowered its FY2026 net profit consensus by 1 per cent for the sector but its FY2027 earnings forecasts stayed “relatively unchanged”. Earnings forecasts for DBS were lowered by 2 per cent and 1 per cent for FY2026 and FY2027, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RHB 將該行業 2026 財年的淨利潤共識下調 1%，但其 2027 財年的盈利預測保持 “相對不變”。DBS 的盈利預測分別下調 2% 和 1% 至 2026 財年和 2027 財年。</p>
</div><p>Following FY2025 results, UOB’s FY2026 net profit is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent, while OCBC’s FY2027 forecast earnings were raised by 1 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 財年業績發佈後，預計 UOB 的 2026 財年淨利潤將下降 1%，而 OCBC 的 2027 財年盈利預測則上調 1%。</p>
</div><p>Earnings of the banking sector are expected to rebound by 5 per cent year on year for FY2026, underpinned by lower credit cost of 23 basis points, and continued non-interest income growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計銀行業的盈利將在 2026 財年同比反彈 5%，這得益於信貸成本降低 23 個基點，以及非利息收入的持續增長。</p>
</div><p>Potential upside risks to banks’ earnings include a stronger-than-expected net interest margin if the US Federal Reserve cuts rates, as well as milder pressure on the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (Sora), which is the key benchmark interest rate in Singapore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對銀行盈利的潛在上行風險包括，如果美國聯邦儲備委員會降息，淨利差強於預期，以及新加坡隔夜利率平均值（Sora）壓力減輕，這一利率是新加坡的關鍵基準利率。</p>
</div><p>Earnings could also be supported by robust wealth management activity and treasury flows that lift fee income, alongside lower-than-expected credit costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利也可能受到強勁的財富管理活動和提升手續費收入的財務流動的支持，同時信貸成本低於預期。</p>
</div><p>On the downside, weaker loan growth could weigh on the sector, while non-interest income from treasury and markets activities may soften. A surge in liquidity inflows could also push Sora lower than expected, placing additional pressure on margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下行方面，貸款增長疲軟可能對該行業造成壓力，而來自財務和市場活動的非利息收入可能會減弱。流動性流入的激增也可能使 Sora 低於預期，從而對利差施加額外壓力。</p>
</div>

RHB 對星展集團控股和華僑銀行持樂觀看法，但預計由於地緣政治緊張局勢，銀行業將面臨更多波動