<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg"/></p>
<p>由於對伊朗戰爭的擔憂，油價飆升至每桶 100 美元，黃金價格下滑，同時通脹擔憂也影響了市場情緒。</p>
<p>目前，黃金在典型的避險需求動態與因油價飆升而導致的美元強勢之間徘徊。</p>
<p>分析師預計，黃金價格將在當前軌跡上保持，直到中東戰爭的局勢更加明朗。</p>
<p>此外，美元對一籃子主要貨幣的強勢也在週四拖累了黃金價格。</p>
<p>美元走強使得以美元計價的商品對海外買家來説更加昂貴。</p>
<p>自衝突開始以來，許多市場觀察者對黃金的表現感到困惑。</p>
<h2>對黃金走勢的困惑</h2>
<p>儘管黃金在地緣政治危機中歷來被視為可靠的避險資產，但自 2 月 28 日首次空襲以來，黃金意外下跌約 200 美元，違背了市場的典型反應。</p>
<p>Kitco 的技術市場分析師 Gary Wagner 在一份報告中表示：“解釋在於空襲後的直接影響，當時美元作為避險資金的主要受益者飆升，實際上擠壓了黃金的典型角色。”</p>
<p>市場的關注點最近發生了轉變。現在的焦點集中在持續衝突如何影響能源供應，並可能改變美聯儲的貨幣政策路徑。</p>
<p>這種關注點的變化反過來又成為影響黃金價格的重要因素。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1773296073.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1773296073.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Kitco</p>
<h2>更高的通脹對黃金施壓</h2>
<p>在伊朗週三對商船的襲擊後，德黑蘭表示全球應為每桶 200 美元的油價做好準備。</p>
<p>國際能源署（IEA）對此次被描述為自 1970 年代以來最嚴重的油價衝擊緊急呼籲大規模釋放戰略儲備。</p>
<p>在美國與伊朗的衝突持續之際，來自海灣的供應仍然受到限制，導致油價在早盤交易中飆升，並加劇了通脹壓力。</p>
<p>此外，伊朗 reportedly 在狹窄的水道中部署了約十幾枚水雷。</p>
<p>這一舉動威脅到重新開放這一全球石油和液化天然氣運輸關鍵通道的努力。</p>
<p>中東的生產商因儲存接近飽和而暫停了石油產出，導致油輪在霍爾木茲海峽滯留超過一週。</p>
<p>衝突的影響超越了金融機制，突顯出對供應鏈安全的地緣政治擔憂的演變。</p>
<p>霍爾木茲海峽是一個重要的瓶頸；它通常處理大約每天 2000 萬桶的石油運輸，佔全球海運石油貿易的四分之一（25%）。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，亞洲市場在很大程度上依賴這一通道，接收近 90% 的通過該通道的原油和凝析油出口。</p>
<p>另一方面，美國經濟數據顯示，週三消費者價格指數（CPI）在 2 月份上漲了 0.3%，符合預期，並較 1 月份的 0.2% 增速有所加快。</p>
<p>CPI 在 2 月份同比上漲了 2.4%，這也與預期一致。</p>
<p>現在的關注點轉向延遲發佈的 1 月份個人消費支出（PCE）指數，投資者期待在週五公佈。</p>
<p>預計通脹將受到顯著影響。</p>
<p>根據 Wagner 的説法，2 月份數據中任何關於能源成本降温的暗示都可能很快被推翻，3 月和 4 月的報告預計將顯示由於供應中斷而出現的急劇反轉。</p>
<p>“這一前景使得美聯儲的利率路徑變得相當模糊，而正是這種不確定性——而非地緣政治頭條本身——似乎對黃金施加了最沉重的壓力。”</p>
<h2>短期展望</h2>
<p>黃金期貨經歷了一次下跌，週三初步下跌 14.80 美元。</p>
<p>這一下行趨勢持續到週四的隔夜交易，合約再下跌 12.00 美元，交易價格為 5166.00 美元。</p>
<p>Wagner 補充道：“這一模式表明，只要美元保持強勢，市場就會持續面臨賣壓，市場正在辯論中東能源衝擊可能將美聯儲推離軌道的程度。”</p>
<p>市場參與者，包括交易員和分析師，關注兩個關鍵發展：來自外交談判的降級信號和油價波動的穩定，這目前是決定美聯儲政策預期通脹風險的主要因素。</p>
<p>Wagner 進一步表示：“在這兩個問題未得到解決之前，黃金可能會繼續在其傳統的地緣政治溢價與自 2 月底以來定義其交易的美元強勢逆風之間徘徊。”</p>
<p>在撰寫本文時，COMEX 黃金合約的價格為每盎司 5160.26 美元，下跌 0.4%，而白銀的價格為每盎司 85.480 美元，下跌 0.1%。</p>
<p>文章《為什麼黃金在下跌？避險資產被美元強勢擠壓》首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

全球黃金礦業股 MSCI ETF - iShares

實物黃金股 ETF - ETFS

<p>黃金價格下跌，因油價飆升至每桶 100 美元，市場對伊朗衝突的擔憂加劇，同時通脹問題也在加重。美元的強勢掩蓋了黃金作為傳統避險資產的吸引力，分析師預測在地緣政治局勢穩定之前，黃金價格將持續承壓。國際能源署呼籲釋放戰略儲備，以應對嚴重的油價衝擊，而持續的衝突則擾亂了能源供應，進一步複雜化了經濟前景。市場參與者正密切關注外交動態和油價穩定性</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-bars-on-a-work-desk.jpg"/></p>
<p>Gold prices slipped as oil surged to $100 per barrel on Iran war fears, while inflation concerns also weighed on sentiments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於對伊朗戰爭的擔憂，油價飆升至每桶 100 美元，黃金價格下滑，同時通脹擔憂也影響了市場情緒。</p>
</div><p>The yellow metal is currently caught between the typical safe-haven demand dynamics and the dollar’s strength due to surging oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，黃金在典型的避險需求動態與因油價飆升而導致的美元強勢之間徘徊。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect gold prices to remain in the current trajectory until there is a clearer picture about the war in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預計，黃金價格將在當前軌跡上保持，直到中東戰爭的局勢更加明朗。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the dollar’s strength against a basket of major currencies also dragged down bullion prices on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，美元對一籃子主要貨幣的強勢也在週四拖累了黃金價格。</p>
</div><p>A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for overseas buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元走強使得以美元計價的商品對海外買家來説更加昂貴。</p>
</div><p>Many market observers have been puzzled by gold's performance since the start of the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自衝突開始以來，許多市場觀察者對黃金的表現感到困惑。</p>
</div><h2>Puzzled by gold’s movement</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對黃金走勢的困惑</h2>
</div><p>Despite its historical role as a dependable safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises, gold has unexpectedly fallen by about $200 since the initial airstrikes on February 28, going against the typical market response.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管黃金在地緣政治危機中歷來被視為可靠的避險資產，但自 2 月 28 日首次空襲以來，黃金意外下跌約 200 美元，違背了市場的典型反應。</p>
</div><p>“The explanation lies in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, when the US dollar surged as the primary beneficiary of flight-to-safety flows, effectively crowding out gold's typical role,” Gary Wagner, technical market analyst at Kitco said in a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kitco 的技術市場分析師 Gary Wagner 在一份報告中表示：“解釋在於空襲後的直接影響，當時美元作為避險資金的主要受益者飆升，實際上擠壓了黃金的典型角色。”</p>
</div><p>The market's focus has recently shifted. Attention is now centered on how an extended conflict, disrupting energy supplies, could alter the Federal Reserve's path for monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場的關注點最近發生了轉變。現在的焦點集中在持續衝突如何影響能源供應，並可能改變美聯儲的貨幣政策路徑。</p>
</div><p>This change in focus has, in turn, become a significant factor influencing the price of gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種關注點的變化反過來又成為影響黃金價格的重要因素。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1773296073.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/image-1773296073.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Kitco</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Kitco</p>
</div><h2>Higher inflation weigh on gold</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更高的通脹對黃金施壓</h2>
</div><p>Following Iran's strike on merchant ships on Wednesday, Tehran said the global community should be ready for $200 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗週三對商船的襲擊後，德黑蘭表示全球應為每桶 200 美元的油價做好準備。</p>
</div><p>In response to what is being described as one of the most severe oil shocks since the 1970s, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has urgently called for a substantial release of strategic reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際能源署（IEA）對此次被描述為自 1970 年代以來最嚴重的油價衝擊緊急呼籲大規模釋放戰略儲備。</p>
</div><p>Amid the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran, supplies from the Gulf remain restricted, causing oil prices to surge in early trading and intensifying inflationary pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國與伊朗的衝突持續之際，來自海灣的供應仍然受到限制，導致油價在早盤交易中飆升，並加劇了通脹壓力。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Iran has reportedly deployed about a dozen mines in the narrow waterway of the strait.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，伊朗 reportedly 在狹窄的水道中部署了約十幾枚水雷。</p>
</div><p>This action threatens to significantly complicate efforts to reopen this critical passage for global shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一舉動威脅到重新開放這一全球石油和液化天然氣運輸關鍵通道的努力。</p>
</div><p>Producers in the Middle East have suspended oil output because storage is nearing capacity, leaving tankers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz for over a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東的生產商因儲存接近飽和而暫停了石油產出，導致油輪在霍爾木茲海峽滯留超過一週。</p>
</div><p>The conflict's impact extends beyond financial mechanisms, underscoring evolving geopolitical concerns regarding the security of supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衝突的影響超越了金融機制，突顯出對供應鏈安全的地緣政治擔憂的演變。</p>
</div><p>The Strait of Hormuz is a vital choke point; it traditionally handles the transit of roughly 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for over a quarter (25%) of the world's seaborne oil trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍爾木茲海峽是一個重要的瓶頸；它通常處理大約每天 2000 萬桶的石油運輸，佔全球海運石油貿易的四分之一（25%）。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Asian markets rely heavily on this passage, receiving close to 90% of the crude and condensate exports that move through it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，亞洲市場在很大程度上依賴這一通道，接收近 90% 的通過該通道的原油和凝析油出口。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, US economic data showed on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 0.3% in February, meeting forecasts and marking an acceleration from the 0.2% rise seen in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，美國經濟數據顯示，週三消費者價格指數（CPI）在 2 月份上漲了 0.3%，符合預期，並較 1 月份的 0.2% 增速有所加快。</p>
</div><p>Annually, CPI increased by 2.4% through February, which was also aligned with expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPI 在 2 月份同比上漲了 2.4%，這也與預期一致。</p>
</div><p>Attention now shifts to the delayed release of the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which investors anticipate on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在的關注點轉向延遲發佈的 1 月份個人消費支出（PCE）指數，投資者期待在週五公佈。</p>
</div><p>Inflation is expected to be significantly affected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計通脹將受到顯著影響。</p>
</div><p>Any suggestion of cooling energy costs in February's data is likely to be quickly undone, with March and April's reports expected to show a sharp reversal as supply disruptions impact the market, according to Wagner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Wagner 的説法，2 月份數據中任何關於能源成本降温的暗示都可能很快被推翻，3 月和 4 月的報告預計將顯示由於供應中斷而出現的急劇反轉。</p>
</div><p>“That prospect has made the Fed's rate path considerably murkier, and it is this uncertainty — more than the geopolitical headlines themselves — that appears to be weighing most heavily on gold.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這一前景使得美聯儲的利率路徑變得相當模糊，而正是這種不確定性——而非地緣政治頭條本身——似乎對黃金施加了最沉重的壓力。”</p>
</div><h2>Near-term outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期展望</h2>
</div><p>Gold futures experienced a decline, initially dropping $14.80 on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金期貨經歷了一次下跌，週三初步下跌 14.80 美元。</p>
</div><p>This downward trend continued into overnight trading on Thursday, with the contract falling an additional $12.00 to trade at $5,166.00 in overseas markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一下行趨勢持續到週四的隔夜交易，合約再下跌 12.00 美元，交易價格為 5166.00 美元。</p>
</div><p>“The pattern suggests persistent selling pressure as long as the dollar remains firm and the market debates how far a Middle East energy shock might push the Fed off course,” Wagner added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wagner 補充道：“這一模式表明，只要美元保持強勢，市場就會持續面臨賣壓，市場正在辯論中東能源衝擊可能將美聯儲推離軌道的程度。”</p>
</div><p>Market participants, including traders and analysts, are focused on two key developments: signals of de-escalation from diplomatic talks and the stabilisation of oil price volatility, which is currently a major factor in determining the inflation risk for Fed policy expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場參與者，包括交易員和分析師，關注兩個關鍵發展：來自外交談判的降級信號和油價波動的穩定，這目前是決定美聯儲政策預期通脹風險的主要因素。</p>
</div><p>“Until either question is resolved, gold is likely to remain caught between its traditional geopolitical premium and the dollar-strength headwind that has defined its trading since late February,” Wagner further said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wagner 進一步表示：“在這兩個問題未得到解決之前，黃金可能會繼續在其傳統的地緣政治溢價與自 2 月底以來定義其交易的美元強勢逆風之間徘徊。”</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the COMEX gold contract was at $5,160.26 per ounce, down 0.4%, while silver was at $85.480 per ounce, down 0.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰寫本文時，COMEX 黃金合約的價格為每盎司 5160.26 美元，下跌 0.4%，而白銀的價格為每盎司 85.480 美元，下跌 0.1%。</p>
</div><p>The post Why is gold falling? safe haven crowded out by dollar strength, oil surge appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章《為什麼黃金在下跌？避險資產被美元強勢擠壓》首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Why is gold falling? safe haven crowded out by dollar strength, oil surge

invezz

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

能源業 ETF - SPDR

黃金 MiniShares 信託 - SPDR

SPDR 金 ETF

紐蒙特礦業

美國石油設備與服務 ETF - iShares

德銀原油基金 - PowerShares

Kinross Gold

黃金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

金礦小盤股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

黃金礦 ETF - Sprott

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

金礦股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

初級黃金礦股 ETF

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

黃金 ETF - iShares

阿尼科伊格爾礦業

2 倍做多黃金 ETF - ProShares

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多金礦指數 ETF - Direxion

黃金和貴金屬礦商 ETF - U.S. Global

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

為什麼黃金價格在下跌？避險資產的吸引力被美元的強勢和油價的上漲所削弱