<p>胡志明市——根據越南信用評級服務、市場研究和企業分析提供商 S&amp;I Ratings 的報告，預計在經歷了 2025 年強勁增長後，銀行業在今年將實現 “適度積極” 的表現，利潤預計增長 16%。</p>
<p>報告指出，儘管去年的淨利差（NIM）受到流動性壓力的影響，但該行業仍錄得 18.9% 的強勁利潤增長，主要得益於信貸的強勁擴張和非利息收入的恢復。</p>
<p>銀行的零售信貸增長有所改善，主要是由於抵押貸款的激增。</p>
<p>但大多數貸款機構將重點轉向企業客户，特別是大型企業和外資公司，以維持增長。</p>
<p>整個行業的資產質量也顯著改善，不良貸款比例連續三個季度下降，年末達到 1.85%。</p>
<p>淨利差從 2024 年第四季度的 3.4% 降至 3.1%，為近年來的最低水平。</p>
<p>服務費收入在 2025 年增長了 12%，在連續兩年負增長後反彈。</p>
<p>非利息收入的主要驅動力來自於之前核銷的不良債務的回收。</p>
<p>其他活動的收入，主要是壞賬回收，達到了超過 58 萬億越南盾（22 億美元），佔行業總非利息收入的 34%。</p>
<p><strong>房地產信貸預計將降温</strong></p>
<p>預計銀行業將繼續受益於政府在 2026 年的雄心勃勃的經濟增長目標，儘管挑戰依然存在。</p>
<p>越南國家銀行（SBV）設定的信貸增長目標為 15%，低於 2025 年的 19.1%。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，新監管措施包括對信貸增長的季度監測，以及要求房地產貸款的增長不得快於銀行整體信貸的增長。</p>
<p>報告指出：“我們認為，2026 年房地產信貸增長將進入降温和更具選擇性的擴張階段，而不是維持 2025 年的強勁增長。”</p>
<p>“但房地產行業仍將是貸款增長的重要貢獻者。”</p>
<p>報告補充説，中央銀行在這一領域的政策動向應受到密切關注，因為它們可能對行業的增長前景產生影響。</p>
<p>在 SBV 的謹慎監管下，各銀行之間的信貸增長配額差異也日益明顯。</p>
<p>參與重組弱勢金融機構的銀行獲得了更高的信貸增長配額，而大多數其他銀行在年初被分配了 11% 至 13% 的較温和增長率。</p>
<p>隨着經濟對資本的需求保持高位，2026 年進一步信貸的空間可能成為一種寶貴資源，特別是對於房地產貸款。</p>
<p>除了規模差異外，貸款期限結構也在對資金需求施加壓力。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，銀行將資產組合重組為長期貸款，以提高資產收益率並支持淨利差，儘管利差受到壓縮。這增加了用於中長期貸款的短期資金比例，從而提高了資金需求。</p>
<p>通過 SBV 的公開市場操作（OMO）和國庫存款，流動性得到了強有力的支持，支持力度達到了創紀錄的水平。</p>
<p>到 2025 年最後一個季度末，國有商業銀行的國庫存款超過 406 萬億越南盾，而未償還的 OMO 操作通常保持在 200 萬億越南盾以上。</p>
<p>但銀行間利率仍顯著高於 OMO 利率，表明流動性壓力依然存在。</p>
<p>考慮到這些因素，S&amp;I Ratings 預測 2026 年淨利差將略微下降至約 3%，儘管各銀行的表現將有所不同。</p>
<p>預計擁有高活期存款比例、較低融資成本和更強風險管理能力的銀行將更早穩定其淨利差，因為它們對利率波動的抵禦能力更強。</p>
<p>依賴高成本市場融資的銀行可能會繼續面臨長期的利差壓力。</p>
<p>報告補充説：“我們對 2026 年銀行業持適度積極的看法，預計行業整體税前利潤同比增長約 16%。”——越南新聞社</p>

VNAM

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>越南銀行業預計在 2026 年將實現 “適度積極” 的表現，利潤預計將增長 16%。在 2025 年，由於信貸擴張和非利息收入改善，銀行實現了 18.9% 的強勁增長，現在更加關注企業客户。不良貸款比例有所改善，但淨利差預計將略微下降至約 3%。監管措施可能會抑制房地產信貸增長，而各銀行之間的信貸增長配額差異愈發明顯。總體而言，前景依然謹慎樂觀</p>

<p>HCM CITY — After a year of strong growth in 2025 the banking industry is expected to deliver a “moderately positive” performance this year, with profits projected to increase by 16 per cent, according to a report by S&amp;I Ratings, a provider of credit rating services, market research and corporate analysis in Việt Nam.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>胡志明市——根據越南信用評級服務、市場研究和企業分析提供商 S&amp;I Ratings 的報告，預計在經歷了 2025 年強勁增長後，銀行業在今年將實現 “適度積極” 的表現，利潤預計增長 16%。</p>
</div><p>Last year, despite the net interest margin (NIM) being hit by liquidity pressures, the sector recorded robust profit growth of 18.9 per cent, driven by strong credit expansion and a recovery in non-interest income, it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告指出，儘管去年的淨利差（NIM）受到流動性壓力的影響，但該行業仍錄得 18.9% 的強勁利潤增長，主要得益於信貸的強勁擴張和非利息收入的恢復。</p>
</div><p>Banks saw improved retail credit growth, primarily driven by a surge in mortgage lending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀行的零售信貸增長有所改善，主要是由於抵押貸款的激增。</p>
</div><p>But most lenders shifted their focus towards corporate clients, particularly large enterprises and foreign-invested companies, to sustain growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但大多數貸款機構將重點轉向企業客户，特別是大型企業和外資公司，以維持增長。</p>
</div><p>Asset quality across the sector also improved significantly, with the non-performing loan ratio declining for three consecutive quarters to end the year at 1.85 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整個行業的資產質量也顯著改善，不良貸款比例連續三個季度下降，年末達到 1.85%。</p>
</div><p>NIM dropped to 3.1 per cent from 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, the lowest level in several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淨利差從 2024 年第四季度的 3.4% 降至 3.1%，為近年來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The service fee income rose by 12 per cent in 2025, rebounding after two consecutive years of negative growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服務費收入在 2025 年增長了 12%，在連續兩年負增長後反彈。</p>
</div><p>The main driver of non-interest income came from recoveries of previously written-off bad debts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非利息收入的主要驅動力來自於之前核銷的不良債務的回收。</p>
</div><p>Income from other activities, mainly bad debt recoveries, reached over VNĐ58 trillion (US$2.2 billion) to account for 34 per cent of the industry’s total non-interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他活動的收入，主要是壞賬回收，達到了超過 58 萬億越南盾（22 億美元），佔行業總非利息收入的 34%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Real estate credit expected to cool</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>房地產信貸預計將降温</strong></p>
</div><p>The banking sector is expected to continue benefiting from the Government’s ambitious economic growth targets in 2026, though admittedly, challenges remain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計銀行業將繼續受益於政府在 2026 年的雄心勃勃的經濟增長目標，儘管挑戰依然存在。</p>
</div><p>The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has a credit growth target of 15 per cent, lower than the 19.1 per cent in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南國家銀行（SBV）設定的信貸增長目標為 15%，低於 2025 年的 19.1%。</p>
</div><p>Notably, new regulatory measures include quarterly monitoring of credit growth and a requirement that real estate lending must not grow faster than banks’ overall credit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，新監管措施包括對信貸增長的季度監測，以及要求房地產貸款的增長不得快於銀行整體信貸的增長。</p>
</div><p>“We believe real estate credit growth in 2026 will enter a phase of cooling and more selective expansion rather than maintaining the strong growth seen in 2025,” the report noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告指出：“我們認為，2026 年房地產信貸增長將進入降温和更具選擇性的擴張階段，而不是維持 2025 年的強勁增長。”</p>
</div><p>“But the real estate sector will still remain a significant contributor to loan growth.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“但房地產行業仍將是貸款增長的重要貢獻者。”</p>
</div><p>It added that policy moves by the central bank in this area should be closely monitored due to their potential impact on the sector’s growth outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告補充説，中央銀行在這一領域的政策動向應受到密切關注，因為它們可能對行業的增長前景產生影響。</p>
</div><p>Differences in credit growth quotas between banks are also becoming more pronounced under the SBV’s cautious regulatory approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 SBV 的謹慎監管下，各銀行之間的信貸增長配額差異也日益明顯。</p>
</div><p>Banks involved in restructuring weak financial institutions were granted higher credit growth quotas, while most others were allocated more modest rates of 11–13 per cent at the beginning of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>參與重組弱勢金融機構的銀行獲得了更高的信貸增長配額，而大多數其他銀行在年初被分配了 11% 至 13% 的較温和增長率。</p>
</div><p>With the economy’s demand for capital remaining high, room for further credit could become a precious resource in 2026, particularly for real estate lending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着經濟對資本的需求保持高位，2026 年進一步信貸的空間可能成為一種寶貴資源，特別是對於房地產貸款。</p>
</div><p>Apart from differences in scale, the structure of loan tenors is also creating pressure on funding demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了規模差異外，貸款期限結構也在對資金需求施加壓力。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, banks restructured their asset portfolios toward longer-term lending to improve asset yields and support NIM amid margin compression. This increased the ratio of short-term funds used for medium- and long-term lending, thereby raising funding needs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，銀行將資產組合重組為長期貸款，以提高資產收益率並支持淨利差，儘管利差受到壓縮。這增加了用於中長期貸款的短期資金比例，從而提高了資金需求。</p>
</div><p>Liquidity has been strongly supported through the SBV’s open market operations (OMO) and State Treasury deposits, with support through them rising to record levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過 SBV 的公開市場操作（OMO）和國庫存款，流動性得到了強有力的支持，支持力度達到了創紀錄的水平。</p>
</div><p>State Treasury deposits at state-owned commercial banks topped VNĐ406 trillion by the end of the last quarter of 2025, while outstanding OMO operations regularly remained above VNĐ200 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2025 年最後一個季度末，國有商業銀行的國庫存款超過 406 萬億越南盾，而未償還的 OMO 操作通常保持在 200 萬億越南盾以上。</p>
</div><p>But interbank interest rates have remained significantly higher than OMO rates, indicating a persistence of liquidity pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但銀行間利率仍顯著高於 OMO 利率，表明流動性壓力依然存在。</p>
</div><p>Taking these factors into account, S&amp;I Ratings forecasts NIM to decline slightly to around 3 per cent in 2026, though performance will vary between banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這些因素，S&amp;I Ratings 預測 2026 年淨利差將略微下降至約 3%，儘管各銀行的表現將有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Banks with high current account savings account ratios, lower funding costs and stronger risk management capabilities are expected to stabilise their NIM earlier, thanks to better resilience against interest rate fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計擁有高活期存款比例、較低融資成本和更強風險管理能力的銀行將更早穩定其淨利差，因為它們對利率波動的抵禦能力更強。</p>
</div><p>Banks that rely heavily on higher-cost market funding may continue to face prolonged margin pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>依賴高成本市場融資的銀行可能會繼續面臨長期的利差壓力。</p>
</div><p>“We maintain a moderately positive view on the banking sector for 2026, forecasting industry-wide pre-tax profit growth of around 16 per cent year-on-year,” the report added. — VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告補充説：“我們對 2026 年銀行業持適度積極的看法，預計行業整體税前利潤同比增長約 16%。”——越南新聞社</p>
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銀行業的增長將在 2026 年趨於温和