<p>作者：Bharath Rajeswaran</p>
<p>3 月 13 日（路透社）——印度基準股指本週從歷史高點下跌 10%，確認了技術性修正，這是一個廣泛關注的閾值，標誌着市場出現了顯著回調，原因是伊朗戰爭和飆升的油價導致持續拋售。</p>
<p>這場衝突已蔓延至中東大部分地區，預計將對印度的宏觀經濟前景產生壓力，外國投資者正在撤出高風險的新興市場。</p>
<p>週四，Nifty 50 收盤時比今年早些時候創下的 26,373.20 的歷史高點低 10.4%。BSE Sensex 在前一天收盤時比其 86,159.02 的歷史高點低 10.8%。</p>
<p>它們本週收盤時分別比歷史高點低 12.2% 和 13.5%。</p>
<p>Profitmart Securities 的研究總監 Avinash Gorakshakar 表示：“市場上出現了絕對的恐慌性拋售”，因為原油價格飆升引發了對能源安全、盈利壓力、貨幣穩定性和消費疲軟的擔憂。</p>
<p>技術指標</p>
<p>SBI 證券技術與衍生品研究負責人 Sudeep Shah 表示：“移動平均線和基於動量的指標繼續暗示看跌的基調，表明短期趨勢仍然承壓。”</p>
<p>Nifty 和 Sensex 均低於其關鍵的 50 日、100 日和 200 日移動平均線，這意味着疲軟的趨勢正在向中長期信號擴散。</p>
<p>當一個指數突破所有這些水平時，意味着動量急劇惡化，買入支撐減弱。</p>
<p>這些移動平均線被機構、交易員和外國投資者廣泛跟蹤，突破可能會觸發新的風險控制和拋售壓力。</p>
<p>基準指數的相對強弱指數（RSI）本週也跌破 30，表明它們已進入超賣區域。</p>
<p>超賣狀態表明拋售可能過度，儘管這也可能表明看跌動能仍然強烈。</p>
<p>外國投資者恢復拋售</p>
<p>自伊朗戰爭開始以來，外國投資者已出售價值 57.3 億美元的印度股票，3 月份的資金外流已是 14 個月以來的最高水平。</p>
<p>Gorakshakar 表示：“在沒有明確情況之前，（外國拋售）將繼續擾亂市場，外國投資者不太可能以有意義的方式回到印度。”</p>
<p>儘管外國投資者拋售印度股票，但國內投資者仍在買入，儘管資金流入有所減緩，新 SIP 註冊也放緩。</p>
<p>Germinate Investor Services 首席執行官 Santosh Joseph 表示：“在市場橫盤或低迷的背景下，這是自然現象，因為散户投資者往往會等待更清晰的市場方向。”</p>
<p>（由 Bharath Rajeswaran 在班加羅爾報道；Janane Venkatraman 編輯）</p>

印度 Nifty 50 等權重 ETF - First Trust

<p>印度的股指基準，Nifty 和 Sensex，因伊朗戰爭和油價上漲確認了從歷史高點下跌 10% 的技術修正。Nifty 收盤時比其峯值低 10.4%，而 Sensex 下跌了 10.8%。市場出現了恐慌性拋售，自衝突開始以來，外國投資者已拋售了 57.3 億美元的股票。兩個指數均低於關鍵移動平均線，顯示出看跌趨勢。儘管外國拋售持續，國內投資者仍然活躍，但在市場不確定性中，資金流入有所減緩</p>

<p>By Bharath Rajeswaran</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Bharath Rajeswaran</p>
</div><p>March 13 (Reuters) - India's benchmark equity indexes fell 10% from their all-time highs this week, confirming a technical correction, a widely watched threshold that signals a meaningful ‌market pullback, on persistent selling due to the Iran war and soaring oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3 月 13 日（路透社）——印度基準股指本週從歷史高點下跌 10%，確認了技術性修正，這是一個廣泛關注的閾值，標誌着市場出現了顯著回調，原因是伊朗戰爭和飆升的油價導致持續拋售。</p>
</div><p>The ‌conflict, which has spread across large parts of the Middle East, is expected to weigh on India's macroeconomic outlook with foreign ​investors pulling out from higher-risk emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這場衝突已蔓延至中東大部分地區，預計將對印度的宏觀經濟前景產生壓力，外國投資者正在撤出高風險的新興市場。</p>
</div><p>The Nifty 50 on Thursday closed 10.4% below its record high of 26,373.20 hit earlier this year. The BSE Sensex settled 10.8% below its lifetime peak of 86,159.02 a day earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，Nifty 50 收盤時比今年早些時候創下的 26,373.20 的歷史高點低 10.4%。BSE Sensex 在前一天收盤時比其 86,159.02 的歷史高點低 10.8%。</p>
</div><p>They closed the week 12.2% and 13.5% below their record high levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它們本週收盤時分別比歷史高點低 12.2% 和 13.5%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There is absolute panic selling in ‌markets,&#34; said Avinash Gorakshakar, director of ⁠research at Profitmart Securities, as spiking crude prices fan worries over energy security, earnings stress, currency stability and softer consumption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Profitmart Securities 的研究總監 Avinash Gorakshakar 表示：“市場上出現了絕對的恐慌性拋售”，因為原油價格飆升引發了對能源安全、盈利壓力、貨幣穩定性和消費疲軟的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>TECHNICAL INDICATORS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技術指標</p>
</div><p>&#34;Moving averages and momentum-based indicators continue to ⁠suggest a bearish undertone, indicating that the near-term trend remains under pressure,&#34; said Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SBI 證券技術與衍生品研究負責人 Sudeep Shah 表示：“移動平均線和基於動量的指標繼續暗示看跌的基調，表明短期趨勢仍然承壓。”</p>
</div><p>Both Nifty and Sensex are trading below their key 50-day, 100-day and 200-day ​moving averages, ​implying that the weakness is spreading across medium- and ​long-term trend signals as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nifty 和 Sensex 均低於其關鍵的 50 日、100 日和 200 日移動平均線，這意味着疲軟的趨勢正在向中長期信號擴散。</p>
</div><p>When an index ‌breaks all these levels, it implies that momentum has deteriorated sharply and buying support has thinned out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當一個指數突破所有這些水平時，意味着動量急劇惡化，買入支撐減弱。</p>
</div><p>These moving averages are widely tracked by institutions, traders and foreign investors, with the breaches potentially triggering fresh risk controls and selling pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些移動平均線被機構、交易員和外國投資者廣泛跟蹤，突破可能會觸發新的風險控制和拋售壓力。</p>
</div><p>The benchmark indexes' relative strength index, or RSI, also fell below 30 this week, signalling they have moved into oversold territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基準指數的相對強弱指數（RSI）本週也跌破 30，表明它們已進入超賣區域。</p>
</div><p>Oversold conditions suggest the selling may have been excessive, though ‌it can also indicate that bearish momentum remains intense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>超賣狀態表明拋售可能過度，儘管這也可能表明看跌動能仍然強烈。</p>
</div><p>FOREIGN INVESTORS ​RESUME SELLING</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外國投資者恢復拋售</p>
</div><p>Foreign portfolio investors have sold $5.73 billion worth of Indian ​equities since the Iran war began, with ​March outflows so far already the highest in 14 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗戰爭開始以來，外國投資者已出售價值 57.3 億美元的印度股票，3 月份的資金外流已是 14 個月以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Until there is some ‌clarity, (foreign selling) will continue to roil markets and ​foreign investors are unlikely ​to return to India in a meaningful way,&#34; said Gorakshakar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gorakshakar 表示：“在沒有明確情況之前，（外國拋售）將繼續擾亂市場，外國投資者不太可能以有意義的方式回到印度。”</p>
</div><p>Even as foreign investors dumped Indian stocks, domestic investors remained buyers, though there has been a moderation in inflows and slowdown in ​new SIP registrations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管外國投資者拋售印度股票，但國內投資者仍在買入，儘管資金流入有所減緩，新 SIP 註冊也放緩。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is natural in ‌the context of a sideways or a subdued market as retail investors tend to ​wait for clearer market direction,&#34; said Santosh Joseph, chief executive at Germinate Investor Services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Germinate Investor Services 首席執行官 Santosh Joseph 表示：“在市場橫盤或低迷的背景下，這是自然現象，因為散户投資者往往會等待更清晰的市場方向。”</p>
</div><p>(Reporting ​by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（由 Bharath Rajeswaran 在班加羅爾報道；Janane Venkatraman 編輯）</p>
</div>

印度股市基準因伊朗戰爭和原油價格確認出現調整；技術面疲軟