<p>原油價格繼續主導市場走勢，隨着我們接近這一波動性一週的結束。布倫特原油在夜間交易中突破每桶 100 美元，這導致各大指數普遍下跌，而美元則繼續上漲。但隨着油價略微回落，這些走勢也同步回撤，歐元在其低點也找到了些許支撐。然而，壓力依然存在，中東衝突沒有結束的跡象。我們可能會看到油價進一步上漲，而 EUR/USD 可能會在突破 1.1500 後進一步下跌。由於油價可能進一步上漲，我們的 EUR/USD 預測仍然傾向於下行。</p>
<h2>原油預測：市場尋求平衡油價</h2>
<p>油價的波動是可以理解的。交易者正在試圖弄清楚當前原油的合理價值，考慮到緊急石油儲備的大量釋放，以及對已經在海上的俄羅斯石油銷售的臨時放鬆制裁。這一決定是在美國和以色列對伊朗的打擊以及德黑蘭在海灣的報復性攻擊導致油價大幅上漲後做出的。這些報復性攻擊有效地封鎖了戰略重要的霍爾木茲海峽。大約 20% 的全球石油供應通常通過這條狹窄的水道，那裏發生的干擾正在阻礙油輪交通，並引發對全球能源供應的擔憂。到目前為止，市場並沒有被説服西方採取的措施能夠抵消霍爾木茲海峽持續的干擾。如果布倫特油價今天晚些時候重新上漲並保持在 100 美元以上，那麼風險資產可能會再次承壓。短期支撐位在 97.50 美元左右。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20uk%20oil%20chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20uk%20oil%20chart.png"/></p>
<h2>EUR/USD 預測：美元目前完全受到油價的支撐</h2>
<p>本週地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，原油價格飆升，風險偏好降低。市場反應跟隨了莫赫塔巴·哈梅內伊確認霍爾木茲海峽的封閉可能仍然是對敵人的戰略工具。他還警告如果衝突持續，可能會出現額外的戰線，這取決於國家利益。這些評論迅速在金融市場引發波動，導致油價再次飆升。布倫特原油短暫突破 100 美元后回落。作為回應，在這場衝突中，美元強勁反彈，乍一看似乎有些反常。畢竟，市場越來越定價其他中央銀行可能採取更緊縮的政策。通常，這會對美元施加壓力。然而，情況正好相反，因為 a) 美國是能源出口國，b) 油價衝擊對依賴能源進口的經濟體產生了巨大的負面經濟影響。這使得 EUR/USD 的預測傾向於下行。</p>
<p>中東局勢動盪不安，可能在本週惡化。關於伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽部署地雷的報道迅速提醒市場，地緣政治局勢仍可能惡化。隨着全球能源供應中斷的風險再次上升，市場情緒變得防禦性——因此美元的需求應該保持強勁。高油價迫使市場重新評估通脹風險，這反過來又觸發了對利率預期的鷹派重新定價，並提高了滯脹的風險。</p>
<h2>美元還能走多遠？</h2>
<p>在短期內，美元可能沒有明確的上限。這一切都取決於與伊朗的局勢。如果衝突拖延，霍爾木茲海峽的干擾持續時間超出預期，那麼我看不出交易者會開始大規模拋售美元，除了正常的獲利了結。這可能會推動油價上漲，收緊金融條件，並可能引發股票的更深幅度拋售。隨着時間的推移，這種情況可能會將全球經濟推向衰退。</p>
<p>如果政治壓力加大，油價重新回到三位數區域，股市再次承壓，那麼我們可能會看到特朗普採取 “TACO” 行動，發出突然降級的信號。市場反應可能會類似於特朗普暗示衝突可能很快結束時的情況——只是規模更大。但目前，地緣政治不確定性、高油價和重倉空頭頭寸的解除繼續為美元提供強有力的支撐，使 EUR/USD 的預測傾向於下行。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20eurusd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>隨着 1.15 的支撐位被突破，現在這是 EUR/USD 上最重要的阻力位，接下來是 1.1530，然後是 1.1578。下一個潛在的下行目標是 2025 年 8 月的低點 1.1391。</p>
<p>本文中使用的所有圖表來源：TradingView.com</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

BRNT

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

<p>原油價格正在影響市場趨勢，布倫特原油交易價格超過每桶 100 美元，導致各大指數下跌，美元走強。由於持續的地緣政治緊張局勢和潛在的油價進一步上漲，EUR/USD 的預測呈看跌態勢，尤其是在突破 1.1500 水平之後。霍爾木茲海峽的局勢依然嚴峻，影響全球能源供應。美元的強勢得益於其作為能源出口國的地位，而高企的油價則引發了通脹擔憂，可能導致滯漲。預計 EUR/USD 將面臨進一步的下行風險</p>

<p>Crude oil is continuing to dictate direction for markets as we head towards the end of a volatile week. Brent oil traded above $100 per barrel overnight and that saw indices drop across the board while the dollar extended its upsurge. But as oil came back down a bit, those moves unwound in unison, and the euro also found some mild support at its lows. However, the pressure remains with no end in sight in the Middle East conflict. We could yet see more gains for oil prices while the EUR/USD could break further lower now that it has taken out the 1.1500 handle. Our EUR/USD forecast remains tilted to the downside owing to elevated risks of oil pushing even higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油價格繼續主導市場走勢，隨着我們接近這一波動性一週的結束。布倫特原油在夜間交易中突破每桶 100 美元，這導致各大指數普遍下跌，而美元則繼續上漲。但隨着油價略微回落，這些走勢也同步回撤，歐元在其低點也找到了些許支撐。然而，壓力依然存在，中東衝突沒有結束的跡象。我們可能會看到油價進一步上漲，而 EUR/USD 可能會在突破 1.1500 後進一步下跌。由於油價可能進一步上漲，我們的 EUR/USD 預測仍然傾向於下行。</p>
</div><h2>Crude oil forecast: Markets seeking equilibrium oil price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油預測：市場尋求平衡油價</h2>
</div><p>The volatility in oil prices is understandable. Traders are trying to figure out what a fair value for crude oil is right now, given the big release of emergency oil reserves, and the temporary relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil sales that’s already at sea. This decision follows the big uprise in oil prices as a result of the US-Israel strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the Gulf. Those retaliatory attacks have effectively blocked transit through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally passes through this narrow waterway, and disruptions there are halting tanker traffic and raising concerns about global energy supplies. So far, the market hasn’t been convinced that the measures taken by the West will offset the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. If Brent starts rising back above $100 and holding there later today, then risk assets could come under renewed pressure. Short-term support is around $97.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價的波動是可以理解的。交易者正在試圖弄清楚當前原油的合理價值，考慮到緊急石油儲備的大量釋放，以及對已經在海上的俄羅斯石油銷售的臨時放鬆制裁。這一決定是在美國和以色列對伊朗的打擊以及德黑蘭在海灣的報復性攻擊導致油價大幅上漲後做出的。這些報復性攻擊有效地封鎖了戰略重要的霍爾木茲海峽。大約 20% 的全球石油供應通常通過這條狹窄的水道，那裏發生的干擾正在阻礙油輪交通，並引發對全球能源供應的擔憂。到目前為止，市場並沒有被説服西方採取的措施能夠抵消霍爾木茲海峽持續的干擾。如果布倫特油價今天晚些時候重新上漲並保持在 100 美元以上，那麼風險資產可能會再次承壓。短期支撐位在 97.50 美元左右。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20uk%20oil%20chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20uk%20oil%20chart.png"/></p>
<h2>EUR/USD forecast: Dollar remains supported for now entirely by oil</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>EUR/USD 預測：美元目前完全受到油價的支撐</h2>
</div><p>Geopolitical tensions intensified this week, and crude oil prices surged, leaving risk appetite low. Market reactions followed Mojtaba Khamenei’s confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz closure could remain a strategic tool against adversaries. He also warned of potential additional fronts if the conflict persists, contingent on national interests. These comments quickly rippled through financial markets, causing oil prices to surge again. Brent crude oil briefly broke above $100 before falling back. In response, the US dollar has staged a powerful rebound during this conflict, and at first glance it might seem counterintuitive. After all, markets are increasingly pricing the possibility of tighter policy from other central banks. Normally, that would weigh on the greenback. Yet the opposite is happening, because a) the US is an energy exporter, and b) the oil shock is having a big negative economic impact on economies that rely on energy imports. This is keeping the EUR/USD forecast tilted to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，原油價格飆升，風險偏好降低。市場反應跟隨了莫赫塔巴·哈梅內伊確認霍爾木茲海峽的封閉可能仍然是對敵人的戰略工具。他還警告如果衝突持續，可能會出現額外的戰線，這取決於國家利益。這些評論迅速在金融市場引發波動，導致油價再次飆升。布倫特原油短暫突破 100 美元后回落。作為回應，在這場衝突中，美元強勁反彈，乍一看似乎有些反常。畢竟，市場越來越定價其他中央銀行可能採取更緊縮的政策。通常，這會對美元施加壓力。然而，情況正好相反，因為 a) 美國是能源出口國，b) 油價衝擊對依賴能源進口的經濟體產生了巨大的負面經濟影響。這使得 EUR/USD 的預測傾向於下行。</p>
</div><p>The situation in the middle east is volatile and could deteriorate over the week. Reports that Iran had deployed mines in the Strait of Hormuz quickly reminded markets that the geopolitical situation could still deteriorate. With the risk of disruption to global energy supply rising again, the mood is turning defensive — and the dollar should remain in demand as a result. Elevated oil prices are forcing markets to reassess inflation risks, which in turn has triggered a hawkish repricing of interest-rate expectations and raising risks of stagflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東局勢動盪不安，可能在本週惡化。關於伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽部署地雷的報道迅速提醒市場，地緣政治局勢仍可能惡化。隨着全球能源供應中斷的風險再次上升，市場情緒變得防禦性——因此美元的需求應該保持強勁。高油價迫使市場重新評估通脹風險，這反過來又觸發了對利率預期的鷹派重新定價，並提高了滯脹的風險。</p>
</div><h2>How much further can the dollar run?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元還能走多遠？</h2>
</div><p>In the short term, there may not be a clear ceiling for the greenback. It all depends on the situation with Iran. If the conflict drags on and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist longer than expected, then I can’t see why traders will start selling the dollar aggressively, beyond normal profit--taking here and there. That would likely push oil prices higher, tighten financial conditions and potentially trigger a deeper sell-off in equities. Over time, such conditions could tip the global economy towards recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短期內，美元可能沒有明確的上限。這一切都取決於與伊朗的局勢。如果衝突拖延，霍爾木茲海峽的干擾持續時間超出預期，那麼我看不出交易者會開始大規模拋售美元，除了正常的獲利了結。這可能會推動油價上漲，收緊金融條件，並可能引發股票的更深幅度拋售。隨着時間的推移，這種情況可能會將全球經濟推向衰退。</p>
</div><p>If the political pressure mounts as oil prices push back into triple-digit territory and equity markets come under renewed strain, then we may see Trump doing a “TACO” and signals an abrupt de-escalation. The market reaction could mirror what we saw when Trump hinted the conflict might end soon — only on a much larger scale. But for now, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, higher oil prices and the unwinding of heavy short positions continue to provide strong support for the US dollar, keeping the EUR/USD forecast tilted to downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果政治壓力加大，油價重新回到三位數區域，股市再次承壓，那麼我們可能會看到特朗普採取 “TACO” 行動，發出突然降級的信號。市場反應可能會類似於特朗普暗示衝突可能很快結束時的情況——只是規模更大。但目前，地緣政治不確定性、高油價和重倉空頭頭寸的解除繼續為美元提供強有力的支撐，使 EUR/USD 的預測傾向於下行。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20eurusd.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.03.13%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>With 1.15 handle taken out, this is now the most important resistance to watch on the EUR/USD, followed by 1.1530 and then 1.1578. The next potential downside targets it he August 2025 low of 1.1391.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 1.15 的支撐位被突破，現在這是 EUR/USD 上最重要的阻力位，接下來是 1.1530，然後是 1.1578。下一個潛在的下行目標是 2025 年 8 月的低點 1.1391。</p>
</div><p>Source for all charts used in this article: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文中使用的所有圖表來源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市場分析師</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

歐元/美元和原油預測：外匯市場週五分析 |2026年3月13日