<p>TradingKey - 從市場表現的角度來看，特朗普的總統任期始終伴隨着美國股市的強勁反彈。在他第一任期內，從 2017 年 1 月到 2021 年 1 月，道瓊斯工業平均指數、標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數分別上漲了 57%、70% 和 142%；自他第二任期於 2025 年 1 月開始以來，這三大主要指數的累計漲幅為 14%-15%。</p>
<p>雖然大多數總統在任期內都能見證股市的上漲，但特朗普執政期間美國股票的年化回報在一個多世紀的歷史中排名最高。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，這一牛市的催化劑既具有政策屬性，也具有技術屬性；特朗普政府的政策導向，加上人工智能和量子計算等前沿技術的突破，共同推動了股指屢創新高。</p>
<p>然而，美國股市的高估值壓力和政治不確定性可能成為擾亂上漲勢頭的潛在變量。</p>
<p>關於美國股市在 2026 年是否會經歷崩盤，目前沒有明確的答案，但歷史數據和當前信號為投資者提供了參考視角。</p>
<h2>美國股票創紀錄高點的多重驅動因素</h2>
<p>推動美國股市的核心引擎之一是前沿技術（如人工智能和量子計算）革命所創造的巨大市場潛力。</p>
<p>普華永道預測，到 2030 年，人工智能將為全球經濟創造 15.7 萬億美元的價值。人工智能技術的發展不僅直接推動了相關公司的估值飆升，還重塑了整個市場的增長預期，點燃了長期投資者的熱情。</p>
<p>在微觀層面，人工智能的商業化進程正在以驚人的速度推進，數據中心建設如火如荼，芯片巨頭持續增加資本支出，人工智能初創公司不斷獲得鉅額融資。</p>
<p>美聯儲數據顯示，從 2025 年第二季度到第四季度，數據中心建設對美國 GDP 增長產生了顯著的刺激作用，GDP 增長率在這段時間分別達到了 3.8%、4.4% 和 1.4%。</p>
<p>大型科技公司今年宣佈了超過 6000 億美元的雲基礎設施投資計劃，幾乎完全圍繞人工智能需求展開；這直接推動了原材料、芯片、勞動力和電力等上下游行業的需求增長，成為推動美國經濟和股市的關鍵力量。全球市值巨頭如 NVIDIA 的強勁表現直接反映了這一人工智能革命。</p>
<p>美聯儲持續的寬鬆利率週期也為牛市提供了重要支持。儘管聯邦公開市場委員會的利率決策獨立於總統，但低利率環境確實刺激了企業借貸，鼓勵公司增加招聘、併購投資和創新資本，從而推動盈利增長。這種寬鬆的貨幣政策環境為股市反彈創造了有利的流動性條件。</p>
<p>特朗普政府的政策舉措也為股市反彈注入了直接動力。在他第一任期內推出的《減税與就業法案》將最高邊際企業所得税率從 35% 永久性降低至 21%，這是自 1939 年以來的最低水平。</p>
<p>這一政策直接增加了企業的留存利潤，推動標準普爾 500 公司季度股票回購大幅激增。標準普爾道瓊斯指數預測，到 2025 年，標準普爾 500 公司的累計股票回購將超過 1 萬億美元。對於盈利穩定或增長的公司，回購可以有效提升每股收益（EPS），增強股票對價值投資者的吸引力。</p>
<p>然而，目前美國股市的人工智能熱潮不可避免地讓人聯想到 1999 年的互聯網泡沫。許多分析師警告投資者要對潛在的 “人工智能泡沫” 保持警惕。</p>
<p>歷史教訓表明，人工智能牛市可能面臨類似風險；如果對人工智能數據中心的支出達到峯值後下降，將直接影響 GDP 增長、科技巨頭的盈利表現和勞動力市場的活力，進而引發股市修正。</p>
<h2>Shiller 市盈率的警示</h2>
<p>雖然回測數據集和相關事件無法保證未來表現，但它們確實有助於消除情緒因素的影響，使投資者能夠客觀地看待股市。</p>
<p>一個經過 155 年曆史回測驗證的估值指標清晰地指向特朗普牛市的結束趨勢：Shiller 市盈率（CAPE Ratio，或週期調整後市盈率）。</p>
<p>與傳統市盈率（基於過去 12 個月每股收益）不同，Shiller 市盈率使用過去 10 年的平均通脹調整後收益。這種方法通過長期數據平滑了短期衝擊和衰退對收益的影響，更準確地反映了市場的真實估值水平。</p>
<p>自 1871 年以來，Shiller 市盈率的歷史均值為 17.34。儘管由於利率下降和互聯網帶來的信息透明度增加，該指標在過去 30 年中一直高於均值，但當前水平遠遠超出了合理範圍。</p>
<p>在過去四個月中，它一直保持在 39 到 41 之間，這是歷史上第二高的估值水平，僅次於互聯網泡沫時期。歷史數據顯示，Shiller 市盈率超過 30 的情況在過去 155 年中僅發生過六次，之前的五次都伴隨着三大指數的顯著下跌。</p>
<h2>中期選舉帶來的市場風險</h2>
<p>除了估值壓力，11 月即將舉行的中期選舉也成為市場的潛在風險因素。</p>
<p>在特朗普第二任期開始時，共和黨在參議院和眾議院均佔據多數，但歷史模式顯示，現任總統所在政黨通常在中期選舉中失去國會席位。考慮到共和黨在眾議院的微弱多數，即使選舉結果出現小幅波動，也可能導致國會分裂，從而顯著降低特朗普在任期內推進重大立法的可能性。</p>
<p>卡森投資研究的首席市場策略師瑞安·德特里克在 X 上發佈的數據表明，總統中期選舉年份的股市調整通常比其他年份更大。</p>
<p>自 1950 年以來，標準普爾 500 指數在中期選舉年份的平均回撤（從峯值到谷底）達到了 17.5%，接近熊市區域；在特朗普第一任期的中期選舉中，標準普爾 500 指數幾乎下降了 20%。</p>
<p>2026 年的獨特之處在於，高估值和政治不確定性這兩個重大風險首次同時出現。歷史數據表明，當市場同時面臨這兩種因素時，通常會發生更顯著的調整。</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

全球科技股指數 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - ProShares

<p>這篇文章討論了特朗普總統任期內美國股市估值壓力與政治週期的交織。文章強調了市場表現強勁，這主要得益於政策舉措和技術進步，尤其是在人工智能領域。然而，對於高估值和政治不確定性的擔憂可能會打斷這種勢頭。Shiller 市盈率暗示牛市可能接近尾聲，警告投資者面臨類似於互聯網泡沫的風險。文章強調了監測這些因素對未來市場表現的重要性</p>

<p>TradingKey - From a market performance perspective, Trump's presidential terms have consistently been accompanied by strong rallies in U.S. equities. During his first term from January 2017 to January 2021, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&amp;P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively; since his second term began in January 2025, the three major indices have collectively recorded gains of 14%-15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 從市場表現的角度來看，特朗普的總統任期始終伴隨着美國股市的強勁反彈。在他第一任期內，從 2017 年 1 月到 2021 年 1 月，道瓊斯工業平均指數、標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數分別上漲了 57%、70% 和 142%；自他第二任期於 2025 年 1 月開始以來，這三大主要指數的累計漲幅為 14%-15%。</p>
</div><p>While most presidents witness stock market gains during their tenures, the annualized returns of U.S. stocks during Trump's administration rank the highest among all presidents in over a century of history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然大多數總統在任期內都能見證股市的上漲，但特朗普執政期間美國股票的年化回報在一個多世紀的歷史中排名最高。</p>
</div><p>It is worth noting that the catalysts for this bull market possess both policy and technological attributes; the policy orientation of the Trump administration, combined with breakthroughs in frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, have jointly driven stock indices to repeated record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，這一牛市的催化劑既具有政策屬性，也具有技術屬性；特朗普政府的政策導向，加上人工智能和量子計算等前沿技術的突破，共同推動了股指屢創新高。</p>
</div><p>However, high valuation pressures in the U.S. stock market and political uncertainty could emerge as potential variables that disrupt the upward momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美國股市的高估值壓力和政治不確定性可能成為擾亂上漲勢頭的潛在變量。</p>
</div><p>There is no definitive answer as to whether the U.S. stock market will experience a crash in 2026, but historical data and current signals have provided a reference perspective for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於美國股市在 2026 年是否會經歷崩盤，目前沒有明確的答案，但歷史數據和當前信號為投資者提供了參考視角。</p>
</div><h2>Multiple Drivers Behind Record Highs in U.S. Stocks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美國股票創紀錄高點的多重驅動因素</h2>
</div><p>One of the core engines driving the U.S. stock market is the massive market potential created by the revolution in frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推動美國股市的核心引擎之一是前沿技術（如人工智能和量子計算）革命所創造的巨大市場潛力。</p>
</div><p>PwC predicts that artificial intelligence will create $15.7 trillion in value for the global economy by 2030. The development of AI technology has not only directly fueled soaring valuations for related companies but has also reshaped growth expectations for the entire market, igniting long-term investor enthusiasm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普華永道預測，到 2030 年，人工智能將為全球經濟創造 15.7 萬億美元的價值。人工智能技術的發展不僅直接推動了相關公司的估值飆升，還重塑了整個市場的增長預期，點燃了長期投資者的熱情。</p>
</div><p>On a micro level, the commercialization of artificial intelligence is progressing at a staggering pace, with data center construction in full swing, chip giants continuing to increase capital expenditures, and AI startups consistently securing massive funding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在微觀層面，人工智能的商業化進程正在以驚人的速度推進，數據中心建設如火如荼，芯片巨頭持續增加資本支出，人工智能初創公司不斷獲得鉅額融資。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve data shows that from the second to the fourth quarter of 2025, data center construction had a significant stimulative effect on U.S. GDP growth, with GDP growth rates reaching 3.8%, 4.4%, and 1.4% during those periods, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲數據顯示，從 2025 年第二季度到第四季度，數據中心建設對美國 GDP 增長產生了顯著的刺激作用，GDP 增長率在這段時間分別達到了 3.8%、4.4% 和 1.4%。</p>
</div><p>Large technology companies have announced over $600 billion in cloud infrastructure investment plans this year, almost entirely centered on AI demand; this has directly driven demand growth in upstream and downstream industries such as raw materials, chips, labor, and electricity, becoming a key force driving the U.S. economy and stock market. The strong performance of global market-cap giants like NVIDIA is a direct reflection of this AI revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型科技公司今年宣佈了超過 6000 億美元的雲基礎設施投資計劃，幾乎完全圍繞人工智能需求展開；這直接推動了原材料、芯片、勞動力和電力等上下游行業的需求增長，成為推動美國經濟和股市的關鍵力量。全球市值巨頭如 NVIDIA 的強勁表現直接反映了這一人工智能革命。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve's sustained cycle of loose interest rates has also provided significant support for the bull market. Although the FOMC's interest rate decisions are independent of the President, a low-interest-rate environment does stimulate corporate borrowing, encouraging companies to increase hiring, M&amp;A investment, and innovation capital, thereby driving earnings growth. This accommodative monetary policy environment has created favorable liquidity conditions for the stock market rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲持續的寬鬆利率週期也為牛市提供了重要支持。儘管聯邦公開市場委員會的利率決策獨立於總統，但低利率環境確實刺激了企業借貸，鼓勵公司增加招聘、併購投資和創新資本，從而推動盈利增長。這種寬鬆的貨幣政策環境為股市反彈創造了有利的流動性條件。</p>
</div><p>Policy initiatives by the Trump administration have also injected direct momentum into the stock market rally. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, introduced during his first term, permanently reduced the top marginal corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, the lowest level since 1939.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府的政策舉措也為股市反彈注入了直接動力。在他第一任期內推出的《減税與就業法案》將最高邊際企業所得税率從 35% 永久性降低至 21%，這是自 1939 年以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>This policy directly increased retained profits for corporations, driving a significant surge in quarterly share buybacks among S&amp;P 500 companies. S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices predicts that cumulative share buybacks by S&amp;P 500 companies will exceed $1 trillion by 2025. For companies with stable or growing earnings, buybacks can effectively boost earnings per share (EPS), enhancing the stock's appeal to value investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一政策直接增加了企業的留存利潤，推動標準普爾 500 公司季度股票回購大幅激增。標準普爾道瓊斯指數預測，到 2025 年，標準普爾 500 公司的累計股票回購將超過 1 萬億美元。對於盈利穩定或增長的公司，回購可以有效提升每股收益（EPS），增強股票對價值投資者的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>However, the current AI fever in U.S. stocks inevitably brings to mind the dot-com bubble of 1999. Many analysts are warning investors to remain vigilant against a potential &#34;AI bubble.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，目前美國股市的人工智能熱潮不可避免地讓人聯想到 1999 年的互聯網泡沫。許多分析師警告投資者要對潛在的 “人工智能泡沫” 保持警惕。</p>
</div><p>Historical lessons suggest that an AI bull market could face similar risks; if spending on AI data centers hits a peak and then declines, it will directly impact GDP growth, the earnings performance of tech giants, and labor market vitality, subsequently triggering a stock market correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史教訓表明，人工智能牛市可能面臨類似風險；如果對人工智能數據中心的支出達到峯值後下降，將直接影響 GDP 增長、科技巨頭的盈利表現和勞動力市場的活力，進而引發股市修正。</p>
</div><h2>The Warning of the Shiller PE Ratio</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shiller 市盈率的警示</h2>
</div><p>While backtesting datasets and related events cannot guarantee future performance, they do help eliminate the influence of emotional factors, allowing investors to view the stock market objectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然回測數據集和相關事件無法保證未來表現，但它們確實有助於消除情緒因素的影響，使投資者能夠客觀地看待股市。</p>
</div><p>A valuation metric validated by 155 years of historical backtesting clearly points to an ending trend for the Trump bull market: the Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio, or Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個經過 155 年曆史回測驗證的估值指標清晰地指向特朗普牛市的結束趨勢：Shiller 市盈率（CAPE Ratio，或週期調整後市盈率）。</p>
</div><p>Unlike the traditional PE ratio (based on the trailing 12-month earnings per share), the Shiller PE ratio uses average inflation-adjusted earnings from the past 10 years. This method smoothes the impact of short-term shocks and recessions on earnings through long-term data, more accurately reflecting the market's true valuation level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與傳統市盈率（基於過去 12 個月每股收益）不同，Shiller 市盈率使用過去 10 年的平均通脹調整後收益。這種方法通過長期數據平滑了短期衝擊和衰退對收益的影響，更準確地反映了市場的真實估值水平。</p>
</div><p>Since 1871, the historical mean of the Shiller PE ratio has been 17.34. Although the metric has remained above the mean for the past 30 years due to declining interest rates and increased information transparency brought by the internet, the current level has far exceeded a reasonable range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1871 年以來，Shiller 市盈率的歷史均值為 17.34。儘管由於利率下降和互聯網帶來的信息透明度增加，該指標在過去 30 年中一直高於均值，但當前水平遠遠超出了合理範圍。</p>
</div><p>For the past four months, it has remained between 39 and 41, the second-highest valuation level in history, trailing only the dot-com bubble era. Historical data shows that instances where the Shiller PE ratio exceeded 30 have occurred only six times in the past 155 years, and the previous five occurrences were all accompanied by significant declines in the three major indices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去四個月中，它一直保持在 39 到 41 之間，這是歷史上第二高的估值水平，僅次於互聯網泡沫時期。歷史數據顯示，Shiller 市盈率超過 30 的情況在過去 155 年中僅發生過六次，之前的五次都伴隨着三大指數的顯著下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Market Risks Posed by the Midterm Elections</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中期選舉帶來的市場風險</h2>
</div><p>In addition to valuation pressures, the upcoming midterm elections in November have also become a potential risk factor for the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了估值壓力，11 月即將舉行的中期選舉也成為市場的潛在風險因素。</p>
</div><p>At the start of Trump's second term, the Republican Party held majorities in both the Senate and the House, but historical patterns show that the incumbent president's party typically loses congressional seats in the midterm elections. Given the Republicans' slim majority in the House, even small shifts in election results could lead to a divided Congress, significantly reducing the likelihood of Trump advancing major legislation during the remainder of his term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普第二任期開始時，共和黨在參議院和眾議院均佔據多數，但歷史模式顯示，現任總統所在政黨通常在中期選舉中失去國會席位。考慮到共和黨在眾議院的微弱多數，即使選舉結果出現小幅波動，也可能導致國會分裂，從而顯著降低特朗普在任期內推進重大立法的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Data released on X by Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Investment Research, shows that stock market corrections in presidential midterm election years are typically larger than in other years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡森投資研究的首席市場策略師瑞安·德特里克在 X 上發佈的數據表明，總統中期選舉年份的股市調整通常比其他年份更大。</p>
</div><p>Since 1950, the average drawdown (peak-to-trough) for the S&amp;P 500 in midterm election years has reached 17.5%, nearing bear market territory; during the midterm elections of Trump's first term, the S&amp;P 500 experienced a decline of nearly 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1950 年以來，標準普爾 500 指數在中期選舉年份的平均回撤（從峯值到谷底）達到了 17.5%，接近熊市區域；在特朗普第一任期的中期選舉中，標準普爾 500 指數幾乎下降了 20%。</p>
</div><p>The uniqueness of 2026 lies in the fact that two major risks—high valuations and political uncertainty—are appearing simultaneously for the first time. Historical data indicates that when the market faces both factors at once, more significant corrections typically occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年的獨特之處在於，高估值和政治不確定性這兩個重大風險首次同時出現。歷史數據表明，當市場同時面臨這兩種因素時，通常會發生更顯著的調整。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

Valuation Pressures and Political Cycles Intertwined: Is the Trump-Era US Stock Bull Market Really Ending?

- 特朗普執政期間，美國股市持續強勁反彈，標普 500 指數上漲約 70%。  
- 人工智能等前沿技術推動股市上漲，但高估值和政治不確定性可能引發風險。  
- 2026 年的中期選舉可能導致市場更大調整，歷史數據表明，此時股市通常表現不佳。

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