<h2>美聯儲，FOMC 關鍵要點</h2>
<ul>
<li>交易員和經濟學家預計美聯儲將把利率維持在 3.50-3.75% 的區間。</li>
<li>鑑於伊朗戰爭，中央銀行可能會上調其對 2026 年失業率（從 12 月的 4.5%）和核心 PCE 通脹（從 3.0% 上調至 3.2% 或 3.3%）的預測。</li>
<li>除非鮑威爾明確表示對經濟的擔憂，否則交易員可能會在其下行趨勢中選擇賣出 GBP/USD，最終測試 1.3200 的支撐位。</li>
</ul>
<h2>FOMC 會議何時召開？</h2>
<p>2026 年 3 月的 FOMC 會議將於 <strong>3 月 18 日星期三下午 2:00（東部時間）</strong> 結束。</p>
<p>美聯儲主席鮑威爾的新聞發佈會將於 <strong>下午 2:30（東部時間）</strong> 開始。</p>
<h2>FOMC 利率預期是什麼？</h2>
<p><strong>交易員和經濟學家預計美聯儲將把利率維持在 3.75-4.00% 的區間，</strong> 並對此充滿信心。</p>
<p>截至撰寫時，CME FedWatch 的美聯儲基金期貨交易員預計 <strong>99% 的概率</strong> 不會改變利率：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1154" height="514" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CME FedWatch</em></p>
<p>即使展望接下來的幾次會議，交易員也預計到 6 月不會改變利率的概率超過 75%，因此利率在今年下半年之前很可能會保持不變。</p>
<p>假設美聯儲如預期保持利率不變，市場的關注將立即轉向中央銀行的貨幣政策聲明、經濟預測摘要以及鮑威爾主席的新聞發佈會，以獲取有關美聯儲如何看待勞動力市場和通脹動態的見解，特別是在伊朗戰爭導致能源價格飆升的背景下。</p>
<h2>FOMC 會議預測</h2>
<p>正如他一貫所做的，特朗普總統本週早些時候在 Truth Social 上要求美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾立即降息。</p>
<p>對總統來説不幸的是，美聯儲不僅不會在本週降息，而且在今年上半年很可能會保持不變，即使特朗普挑選的接班人凱文·沃什在 6 月接任，考慮到中東衝突和油價飆升。</p>
<p>伊朗戰爭對美聯儲的雙重任務施加了壓力，首先是提高能源成本（從而導致通脹），其次是對已經放緩的勞動力市場施加壓力。由於 “戰爭迷霧” 影響了經濟的未來前景，鮑威爾及其團隊在本月保持政策不變的決定應該是簡單明瞭的，同時在聲明中承認不確定性，可能只有一位反對者（特朗普任命的斯蒂芬·米蘭）。</p>
<p>對於交易員來説，FOMC 會議的趣味在於季度經濟預測摘要。委員會可能會堅持其對今年降息一次的預測（儘管有可能中位數成員可能會轉向今年不降息）。與此同時，中央銀行上調其 2026 年失業率預測（從 12 月的 4.5%）的風險也存在，核心 PCE 通脹預測也面臨上調風險（從 3.0% 上調至 3.2% 或 3.3%），因為在伊朗衝突爆發之前，其通脹率已經達到 3.1%。</p>
<p>雖然這些調整本身並不是改變遊戲規則的因素，但這些變化使美國經濟更接近於 “滯漲” 軌跡，這是每位中央銀行家最擔心的情景。</p>
<p>至於鮑威爾主席的倒數第二次證詞，這位前律師可能會迴避任何關於美聯儲政治化的問題，以及他是否計劃在 5 月 15 日任期結束後繼續留在美聯儲董事會。</p>
<p>沃倫·巴菲特曾説過，<em>“訣竅是，當沒有事情可做時，就什麼都不做。”</em> 至少在接下來的幾個月裏，預計鮑威爾的美聯儲會遵循這一建議，同時監測經濟數據並等待伊朗局勢的時間表明朗。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>美元技術分析 – GBP/USD 日線圖</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2065" height="1070" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：StoneX, TradingView</em></p>
<p>將注意力轉向圖表，GBP/USD 在進入美聯儲會議和週四的英格蘭銀行決策時顯示出有趣的佈局。該貨幣對自 1 月底達到峯值以來一直在下行趨勢，本週的反彈使其回到接近 1.3400 的看跌趨勢線附近。100 日均線也接近這一水平。</p>
<p>除非鮑威爾明確表示對經濟的擔憂，否則交易員可能會在該阻力位下方賣出 GBP/USD，空間下行測試 1.3200 的 78.6% 斐波那契回撤位。然而，意外的鴿派前景可能會使該貨幣對突破阻力，測試 50 日 EMA 和上週高點在 1.3400 上方。</p>
<p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
<p><em>查看 Matt 的每日市場更新視頻</em> <em>在 YouTube 上</em> <em>並確保關注 Matt 的 Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>

3 倍做多納指 ETF - ProShares

標普 500 指數

納斯達克綜合指數 ETF - Fidelity

納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - Invesco

納斯達克 100 指數

納指 100 ETF - Invesco

納斯達克綜合指數

<p>交易者預計美聯儲將在 2026 年 3 月 18 日的 FOMC 會議上將利率維持在 3.50%-3.75% 之間。由於伊朗持續的戰爭，2026 年的失業率和核心個人消費支出（Core PCE）通脹預測可能會向上修正。市場預計在 6 月之前不會有利率變動，關注美聯儲的貨幣政策聲明和鮑威爾主席的新聞發佈會，以獲取有關勞動力市場和通脹動態的見解。這種情況可能導致滯漲軌跡，引發中央銀行家的擔憂</p>

<h2>Federal Reserve, FOMC Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲，FOMC 關鍵要點</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Traders and economists expect the Fed to hold interest rates in the 3.50-3.75% range.</li>
<li>The central bank could revise up its 2026 forecasts for unemployment (from December’s 4.5%) and Core PCE inflation (from 3.0% to 3.2% or 3.3%) given the war in Iran.</li>
<li>Unless the Powell expresses clear concern about the economy, traders may look to sell GBP/USD in-line with its downtrend for an eventual test of 1.3200 support.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>交易員和經濟學家預計美聯儲將把利率維持在 3.50-3.75% 的區間。</li>
<li>鑑於伊朗戰爭，中央銀行可能會上調其對 2026 年失業率（從 12 月的 4.5%）和核心 PCE 通脹（從 3.0% 上調至 3.2% 或 3.3%）的預測。</li>
<li>除非鮑威爾明確表示對經濟的擔憂，否則交易員可能會在其下行趨勢中選擇賣出 GBP/USD，最終測試 1.3200 的支撐位。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>When is the FOMC Meeting?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>FOMC 會議何時召開？</h2>
</div><p>The March 2026 FOMC meeting will conclude on <strong>Wednesday, March 18 at 2:00 ET.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 3 月的 FOMC 會議將於 <strong>3 月 18 日星期三下午 2:00（東部時間）</strong> 結束。</p>
</div><p>Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference will begin at <strong>2:30 ET.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席鮑威爾的新聞發佈會將於 <strong>下午 2:30（東部時間）</strong> 開始。</p>
</div><h2>What are the FOMC Interest Rate Expectations?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>FOMC 利率預期是什麼？</h2>
</div><p><strong>Traders and economists expect the Fed to hold interest rates in the 3.75-4.00% range</strong> with high confidence</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>交易員和經濟學家預計美聯儲將把利率維持在 3.75-4.00% 的區間，</strong> 並對此充滿信心。</p>
</div><p>As of writing, Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in <strong>99% odds</strong> of no change to interest rates per CME FedWatch:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰寫時，CME FedWatch 的美聯儲基金期貨交易員預計 <strong>99% 的概率</strong> 不會改變利率：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME FedWatch</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CME FedWatch</em></p>
</div><p>Even looking out over the next couple meetings, traders are pricing in 75%+ odds of no change to rates through June, so interest rates are highly likely to remain on hold until at least the second half of the year as it stands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使展望接下來的幾次會議，交易員也預計到 6 月不會改變利率的概率超過 75%，因此利率在今年下半年之前很可能會保持不變。</p>
</div><p>Assuming the Fed leaves rates unchanged as expected, the market’s focus will immediately shift to the central bank’s Monetary Policy Statement, Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chairman Powell’s Press Conference for insights into the how the Fed is viewing the labor market and inflation dynamics, especially in the wake of the energy price spike from the war in Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假設美聯儲如預期保持利率不變，市場的關注將立即轉向中央銀行的貨幣政策聲明、經濟預測摘要以及鮑威爾主席的新聞發佈會，以獲取有關美聯儲如何看待勞動力市場和通脹動態的見解，特別是在伊朗戰爭導致能源價格飆升的背景下。</p>
</div><h2>FOMC Meeting Forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>FOMC 會議預測</h2>
</div><p>As is his wont, President Trump took to Truth Social to demand an immediate interest rate cut from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如他一貫所做的，特朗普總統本週早些時候在 Truth Social 上要求美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾立即降息。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately for the President, not only will the Fed not deliver an interest rate cut this week, but it’s likely to remain on hold throughout the first half of the year, even when Trump’s handpicked successor Kevin Warsh takes the reins in June, given the conflict in the Middle East and spike in oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對總統來説不幸的是，美聯儲不僅不會在本週降息，而且在今年上半年很可能會保持不變，即使特朗普挑選的接班人凱文·沃什在 6 月接任，考慮到中東衝突和油價飆升。</p>
</div><p>The war in Iran puts pressure on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, first by raising energy costs (and thus inflation) and secondly by weighing an already slowing labor market in the second half of the year. With the proverbial “fog of war” impacting the future outlook for the economy, it should be a straightforward decision for Jerome Powell and company to leave policy unchanged this month, while acknowledging the uncertainty in its statement, likely with only one dissent (Trump appointee Stephen Miran).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗戰爭對美聯儲的雙重任務施加了壓力，首先是提高能源成本（從而導致通脹），其次是對已經放緩的勞動力市場施加壓力。由於 “戰爭迷霧” 影響了經濟的未來前景，鮑威爾及其團隊在本月保持政策不變的決定應該是簡單明瞭的，同時在聲明中承認不確定性，可能只有一位反對者（特朗普任命的斯蒂芬·米蘭）。</p>
</div><p>Where the FOMC meeting gets more interesting for traders is in the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. The Committee is likely to stick with its projection for one interest rate cut this year (though there’s an outside chance that the median member could flip to no rate cuts this year). At the same time, there’s risk that the central bank revises up its 2026 forecast for unemployment (from December’s 4.5%) a tick, with the Core PCE inflation forecast also at risk of an upward revision (from 3.0% to 3.2% or 3.3%) given it was already running at 3.1% before the outbreak of hostilities in Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於交易員來説，FOMC 會議的趣味在於季度經濟預測摘要。委員會可能會堅持其對今年降息一次的預測（儘管有可能中位數成員可能會轉向今年不降息）。與此同時，中央銀行上調其 2026 年失業率預測（從 12 月的 4.5%）的風險也存在，核心 PCE 通脹預測也面臨上調風險（從 3.0% 上調至 3.2% 或 3.3%），因為在伊朗衝突爆發之前，其通脹率已經達到 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>While not a gamechanger by itself, these tweaks shift the US economy closer to a “stagflationary” trajectory, a scenario that is every central banker’s worst fear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這些調整本身並不是改變遊戲規則的因素，但這些變化使美國經濟更接近於 “滯漲” 軌跡，這是每位中央銀行家最擔心的情景。</p>
</div><p>As for Chairman Jerome Powell’s penultimate testimony, the former lawyer is likely to deflect any questions about the politicization of the Federal Reserve and whether he plans to stay on the board of the Federal Reserve once his term concludes on May 15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至於鮑威爾主席的倒數第二次證詞，這位前律師可能會迴避任何關於美聯儲政治化的問題，以及他是否計劃在 5 月 15 日任期結束後繼續留在美聯儲董事會。</p>
</div><p>Warren Buffett once said, <em>“The trick is, when there is nothing to do, do nothing.”</em> At least for the next couple months, expect Powell’s Fed to follow that advice while monitoring incoming economic data and awaiting clarity on the timeline in Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特曾説過，<em>“訣竅是，當沒有事情可做時，就什麼都不做。”</em> 至少在接下來的幾個月裏，預計鮑威爾的美聯儲會遵循這一建議，同時監測經濟數據並等待伊朗局勢的時間表明朗。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>US Dollar Technical Analysis – GBP/USD Daily Chart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元技術分析 – GBP/USD 日線圖</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260317114312-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：StoneX, TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>Turning our attention to the charts, GBP/USD is showing an interesting setup heading into the Federal Reserve meeting and Thursday’s Bank of England decision. The pair has been trending lower since peaking in late January, with this week’s bounce taking it back toward the bearish trend line near 1.3400. The 100-day MA also comes in near this level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將注意力轉向圖表，GBP/USD 在進入美聯儲會議和週四的英格蘭銀行決策時顯示出有趣的佈局。該貨幣對自 1 月底達到峯值以來一直在下行趨勢，本週的反彈使其回到接近 1.3400 的看跌趨勢線附近。100 日均線也接近這一水平。</p>
</div><p>Unless the Powell expresses clear concern about the economy, traders may look to sell GBP/USD below that barrier, with room down to test the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January rally at 1.3200 late this month. However, a surprisingly dovish outlook could take the pair through resistance to test the 50-day EMA and last week’s high in the upper-1.3400s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非鮑威爾明確表示對經濟的擔憂，否則交易員可能會在該阻力位下方賣出 GBP/USD，空間下行測試 1.3200 的 78.6% 斐波那契回撤位。然而，意外的鴿派前景可能會使該貨幣對突破阻力，測試 50 日 EMA 和上週高點在 1.3400 上方。</p>
</div><p><em>-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
</div><p><em>Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos</em> <em>on YouTube</em> <em>and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>查看 Matt 的每日市場更新視頻</em> <em>在 YouTube 上</em> <em>並確保關注 Matt 的 Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
</div>

FOMC Meeting Preview: So Much for 2% Inflation this Year?

- 美聯儲預計將利率維持在 3.50-4.00% 區間。  
- 伊朗戰爭可能導致失業率和 PCE 通脹預測上調。  
- 交易者關注 FOMC 會議對經濟前景的影響及 GBP/USD 走勢。

FOMC 會議前瞻：今年實現 2% 的通脹目標還有可能嗎？