<p>當 伊朗戰爭爆發 時，許多人認為這場戰爭會迅速解決。三週過去，這一假設正在崩潰。</p>
<p>受益於霍爾木茲海峽關閉的股票與需要其開放的股票之間的差距已擴大至超過 32 個百分點，這一分歧表明投資者正在重新調整以應對持續數月而非數天的衝突。</p>
<p>一籃子 10 個受益於霍爾木茲海峽關閉或嚴重中斷的公司——能源煉油商、化肥生產商、化工、國防和無人機公司——平均上漲了 17.55%。</p>
<p>一籃子 10 個受益於海灣航運正常化的公司——郵輪公司、航空公司、物流公司和黃金——平均下跌了 15.35%。</p>
<h2>霍爾木茲 ‘重新開放’ 與 ‘關閉’ 股票籃子比較：這 20 只股票迄今表現如何</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/17162133/image-370-1024x641.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/17162133/image-370-1024x641.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Country ETF Tracker 的伊朗戰爭市場篩選器</p>
<h2>‘霍爾木茲關閉’ 籃子：誰在海峽關閉時獲勝</h2>
<p>能源煉油商、化肥生產商、國防相關技術公司和無人機制造商主導了這一籃子。</p>
<p>它們的共同特徵是：每個公司都直接或間接受益於高油價、海上中斷或增加的軍事開支。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>行業</th>
<th>自 2 月 27 日收盤以來的回報</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> (NASDAQ: RCAT)</td>
<td>國防 / 無人機</td>
<td>+40.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>CF Industries Holdings</strong> (NYSE: CF)</td>
<td>化肥 / 天然氣</td>
<td>+25.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>LyondellBasell Industries</strong> (NYSE: LYB)</td>
<td>石化</td>
<td>+24.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MPC)</td>
<td>煉油</td>
<td>+18.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Karman Space &amp; Defense</strong> (NYSE: KRMN)</td>
<td>國防 / 航空航天</td>
<td>+16.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> (NYSE: VLO)</td>
<td>煉油</td>
<td>+15.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: PLTR)</td>
<td>國防科技 / 人工智能</td>
<td>+12.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Phillips 66</strong> (NYSE: PSX)</td>
<td>煉油 / 中游</td>
<td>+12.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Chevron Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CVX)</td>
<td>綜合能源</td>
<td>+6.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> (NYSE: MOS)</td>
<td>化肥 / 鉀肥</td>
<td>+3.81%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> 以 40.95% 的漲幅領先於這一籃子股票——這一顯著的漲幅是由於對軍事無人機系統需求預期的激增所驅動。</p>
<p>化肥生產商 <strong>CF Industries Holdings Inc.</strong> 和 <strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> 受益於通過海灣的氨和鉀肥供應鏈面臨嚴重中斷。</p>
<p>像 <strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> 和 <strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> 這樣的煉油商因中東精煉產品流動中斷而受益於裂解價差的擴大，推動了國內加工商的煉油利潤。</p>
<p><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> 上漲了 12.84%，因為國防人工智能合同的投機上升。</p>
<h2>‘霍爾木茲重新開放’ 籃子：誰需要海峽開放</h2>
<p>航空公司、郵輪運營商和地面貨運公司構成了這一籃子的核心。</p>
<p>更高的航空燃油成本、重新規劃的航運路線以及消費者對國際旅行信心的減弱對每個公司造成了疊加的衝擊。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>行業</th>
<th>回報</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> (NYSE: ALK)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−23.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Carnival Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CCL)</td>
<td>郵輪公司</td>
<td>−20.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings</strong> (NYSE: NCLH)</td>
<td>郵輪公司</td>
<td>−17.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>American Airlines Group Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAL)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−17.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Parcel Service Inc.</strong> (NYSE: UPS)</td>
<td>貨運 / 物流</td>
<td>−15.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Newmont Corp.</strong> (NYSE: NEM)</td>
<td>黃金開採</td>
<td>−14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: JBHT)</td>
<td>卡車運輸 / 貨運</td>
<td>−14.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Airlines Holdings Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: UAL)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−12.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.</strong> (NYSE: RCL)</td>
<td>郵輪公司</td>
<td>−9.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ODFL)</td>
<td>LTL 貨運</td>
<td>−9.18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>重新開放籃子捕捉到那些盈利模型依賴於開放供應鏈、廉價燃料和全球旅行正常化的公司。</p>
<p><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> 下跌了 23.80%——在兩個籃子中降幅最大——因為航空燃油成本飆升，跨大西洋和跨太平洋航線的經濟狀況惡化。過去三週，籃子中的三家主要美國航空公司損失了 12% 到 24% 的市值。</p>
<p>郵輪公司受到的打擊幾乎同樣嚴重。<strong>嘉年華公司</strong> 股價下跌 20.14%，因為海灣航線變得不可行，燃料成本預測大幅上調。</p>
<p><strong>挪威郵輪公司</strong> 股價下跌 17.37%。</p>
<p>物流公司——<strong>聯合包裹服務公司、老德明貨運公司</strong> 和 <strong>J.B.亨特運輸服務公司</strong>——股價均下跌 9% 至 16%，因為全球貨運中斷和衰退需求風險同時施壓。</p>
<p>美國家庭在油泵前的情況也是如此。根據 AAA 的數據，週二全國普通汽油的平均價格上漲至每加侖 3.79 美元，為 2023 年 10 月以來的最高水平。</p>
<h2>伊朗戰爭可能持續多久？預測市場和分析師的看法</h2>
<p>關於持續時間的最強信號來自預測市場，交易者大幅降低了快速解決的概率。</p>
<p>Polymarket 目前認為霍爾木茲海峽的交通在 4 月 30 日前恢復正常的概率為 26%。</p>
<p>這意味着參與者認為該水道在至少六週內仍然會功能性中斷的概率為 74%。</p>
<p>到本月底，美國海軍護航的概率僅為 20%。</p>
<p>“我們最初估計衝突將持續 1 至 3 周，最多兩個月。隨着戰爭的發展，我們現在預計會接近兩個月，儘管動態仍然是自我限制的，”<strong>Dan Alamariu</strong>，Alpine Macro 的首席地緣政治策略師，本週在一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>“伊朗似乎越來越在主導節奏。該政權願意承受懲罰以施加經濟和政治壓力，” 他補充道。</p>
<p>上週，高盛將其布倫特原油價格預測上調 20%，預計 3 月平均為每桶 100 美元，4 月降至 85 美元，假設中斷持續三週。</p>
<p>該銀行警告稱，如果關閉延續到兩個月，其年末預測將從每桶 71 美元上調至 93 美元。</p>
<p><strong>泰勒·古德斯皮德</strong>，埃克森美孚的首席經濟學家，告訴 CNBC，存在 “更多的情景，以及更可能的情景，其中霍爾木茲海峽有效關閉的時間更長”，而不是正常交通迅速恢復的情景。</p>
<p>在外交或海軍力量改變霍爾木茲海峽的現狀之前，這兩個籃子的價差是華爾街對這場戰爭持續時間的最清晰實時衡量。</p>
<p><em>照片：來自 Shutterstock.com 的 Below the Sky</em></p>

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

<p>正在進行的伊朗戰爭導致市場發生重大變化，受益於霍爾木茲海峽關閉的股票與依賴其開放的股票之間的差距達到了 33 點。一籃子能源和防禦類股票平均上漲了 17.55%，而與運輸相關的股票則下跌了 15.35%。分析師預測衝突將持續，霍爾木茲海峽繼續受到干擾的可能性為 74%。高盛也上調了其布倫特原油價格預測，預計由於衝突對石油供應的影響，3 月份的平均價格將達到每桶 100 美元</p>

<p>When the Iran war erupted, many assumed it would have a quick resolution. Three weeks on, that assumption is crumbling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當 伊朗戰爭爆發 時，許多人認為這場戰爭會迅速解決。三週過去，這一假設正在崩潰。</p>
</div><p>The spread between stocks that benefit from a closed Strait of Hormuz and those that need it open has ballooned to more than 32 percentage points, a divergence that suggests investors are repositioning for a conflict measured in months, not days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>受益於霍爾木茲海峽關閉的股票與需要其開放的股票之間的差距已擴大至超過 32 個百分點，這一分歧表明投資者正在重新調整以應對持續數月而非數天的衝突。</p>
</div><p>A basket of 10 names positioned for a closed or severely disrupted Strait — energy refiners, fertilizer producers, chemicals, defense and drone companies — has risen an average of 17.55%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一籃子 10 個受益於霍爾木茲海峽關閉或嚴重中斷的公司——能源煉油商、化肥生產商、化工、國防和無人機公司——平均上漲了 17.55%。</p>
</div><p>A basket of 10 names positioned for Gulf shipping normalization — cruise lines, airlines, logistics companies and gold — has fallen an average of 15.35%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一籃子 10 個受益於海灣航運正常化的公司——郵輪公司、航空公司、物流公司和黃金——平均下跌了 15.35%。</p>
</div><h2>Hormuz ‘Reopen’ vs. ‘Closed’ Stock Basket Comparison: How These 20 Stocks Fared So Far</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>霍爾木茲 ‘重新開放’ 與 ‘關閉’ 股票籃子比較：這 20 只股票迄今表現如何</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/17162133/image-370-1024x641.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/17162133/image-370-1024x641.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Country ETF Tracker’s Iran War Market Screener</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Country ETF Tracker 的伊朗戰爭市場篩選器</p>
</div><h2>The ‘Hormuz Closed’ Basket: Who Wins When Strait Stays Shut</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘霍爾木茲關閉’ 籃子：誰在海峽關閉時獲勝</h2>
</div><p>Energy refiners, fertilizer producers, defense-adjacent technology companies, and drone manufacturers dominate this basket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源煉油商、化肥生產商、國防相關技術公司和無人機制造商主導了這一籃子。</p>
</div><p>Their shared characteristic: each benefits directly or indirectly from elevated oil prices, maritime disruption, or increased military spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它們的共同特徵是：每個公司都直接或間接受益於高油價、海上中斷或增加的軍事開支。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Sector</th>
<th>Return Since Feb. 27 close</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> (NASDAQ: RCAT)</td>
<td>Defense / Drones</td>
<td>+40.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>CF Industries Holdings</strong> (NYSE: CF)</td>
<td>Fertilizers / Nat. Gas</td>
<td>+25.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>LyondellBasell Industries</strong> (NYSE: LYB)</td>
<td>Petrochemicals</td>
<td>+24.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MPC)</td>
<td>Refining</td>
<td>+18.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Karman Space &amp; Defense</strong> (NYSE: KRMN)</td>
<td>Defense / Aerospace</td>
<td>+16.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> (NYSE: VLO)</td>
<td>Refining</td>
<td>+15.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: PLTR)</td>
<td>Defense Tech / AI</td>
<td>+12.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Phillips 66</strong> (NYSE: PSX)</td>
<td>Refining / Midstream</td>
<td>+12.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Chevron Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CVX)</td>
<td>Integrated Energy</td>
<td>+6.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> (NYSE: MOS)</td>
<td>Fertilizers / Potash</td>
<td>+3.81%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>行業</th>
<th>自 2 月 27 日收盤以來的回報</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> (NASDAQ: RCAT)</td>
<td>國防 / 無人機</td>
<td>+40.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>CF Industries Holdings</strong> (NYSE: CF)</td>
<td>化肥 / 天然氣</td>
<td>+25.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>LyondellBasell Industries</strong> (NYSE: LYB)</td>
<td>石化</td>
<td>+24.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MPC)</td>
<td>煉油</td>
<td>+18.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Karman Space &amp; Defense</strong> (NYSE: KRMN)</td>
<td>國防 / 航空航天</td>
<td>+16.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> (NYSE: VLO)</td>
<td>煉油</td>
<td>+15.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: PLTR)</td>
<td>國防科技 / 人工智能</td>
<td>+12.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Phillips 66</strong> (NYSE: PSX)</td>
<td>煉油 / 中游</td>
<td>+12.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Chevron Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CVX)</td>
<td>綜合能源</td>
<td>+6.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> (NYSE: MOS)</td>
<td>化肥 / 鉀肥</td>
<td>+3.81%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> leads the basket with a 40.95% gain — a striking move driven by surging demand expectations for military drone systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Red Cat Holdings</strong> 以 40.95% 的漲幅領先於這一籃子股票——這一顯著的漲幅是由於對軍事無人機系統需求預期的激增所驅動。</p>
</div><p>Fertilizer producers <strong>CF Industries Holdings Inc.</strong> and <strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> gain as ammonia and potash supply chains routed through the Gulf face severe disruption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>化肥生產商 <strong>CF Industries Holdings Inc.</strong> 和 <strong>Mosaic Co.</strong> 受益於通過海灣的氨和鉀肥供應鏈面臨嚴重中斷。</p>
</div><p>Refiners like <strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> and <strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> benefit from crack spread expansion as Middle Eastern refined product flows are disrupted, pushing up refinery margins for domestic processors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>Marathon Petroleum Corp.</strong> 和 <strong>Valero Energy Corp.</strong> 這樣的煉油商因中東精煉產品流動中斷而受益於裂解價差的擴大，推動了國內加工商的煉油利潤。</p>
</div><p><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> is up 12.84% as defense AI contract speculation rises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Palantir Technologies Inc.</strong> 上漲了 12.84%，因為國防人工智能合同的投機上升。</p>
</div><h2>The ‘Hormuz Reopen” Basket: Who Needs The Strait Open</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘霍爾木茲重新開放’ 籃子：誰需要海峽開放</h2>
</div><p>Airlines, cruise operators, and surface freight companies form the core of this basket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空公司、郵輪運營商和地面貨運公司構成了這一籃子的核心。</p>
</div><p>Higher jet fuel costs, rerouted shipping lanes, and weakening consumer confidence in international travel have hit each name with compounding force.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的航空燃油成本、重新規劃的航運路線以及消費者對國際旅行信心的減弱對每個公司造成了疊加的衝擊。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Sector</th>
<th>Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> (NYSE: ALK)</td>
<td>Airlines</td>
<td>−23.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Carnival Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CCL)</td>
<td>Cruise Lines</td>
<td>−20.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings</strong> (NYSE: NCLH)</td>
<td>Cruise Lines</td>
<td>−17.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>American Airlines Group Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAL)</td>
<td>Airlines</td>
<td>−17.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Parcel Service Inc.</strong> (NYSE: UPS)</td>
<td>Freight / Logistics</td>
<td>−15.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Newmont Corp.</strong> (NYSE: NEM)</td>
<td>Gold Mining</td>
<td>−14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: JBHT)</td>
<td>Trucking / Freight</td>
<td>−14.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Airlines Holdings Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: UAL)</td>
<td>Airlines</td>
<td>−12.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.</strong> (NYSE: RCL)</td>
<td>Cruise Lines</td>
<td>−9.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ODFL)</td>
<td>LTL Freight</td>
<td>−9.18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>行業</th>
<th>回報</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> (NYSE: ALK)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−23.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Carnival Corp.</strong> (NYSE: CCL)</td>
<td>郵輪公司</td>
<td>−20.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings</strong> (NYSE: NCLH)</td>
<td>郵輪公司</td>
<td>−17.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>American Airlines Group Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAL)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−17.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Parcel Service Inc.</strong> (NYSE: UPS)</td>
<td>貨運 / 物流</td>
<td>−15.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Newmont Corp.</strong> (NYSE: NEM)</td>
<td>黃金開採</td>
<td>−14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: JBHT)</td>
<td>卡車運輸 / 貨運</td>
<td>−14.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>United Airlines Holdings Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: UAL)</td>
<td>航空公司</td>
<td>−12.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.</strong> (NYSE: RCL)</td>
<td>郵輪公司</td>
<td>−9.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ODFL)</td>
<td>LTL 貨運</td>
<td>−9.18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>The reopen basket captures names whose earnings models depend on open supply chains, cheap fuel and global travel normalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重新開放籃子捕捉到那些盈利模型依賴於開放供應鏈、廉價燃料和全球旅行正常化的公司。</p>
</div><p><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> has fallen 23.80% — the sharpest decline across both baskets — as jet fuel costs surge and the economics of transatlantic and transpacific routes deteriorate. The three major U.S. airlines in the basket have lost between 12% and 24% of their value over the past three weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Alaska Air Group Inc.</strong> 下跌了 23.80%——在兩個籃子中降幅最大——因為航空燃油成本飆升，跨大西洋和跨太平洋航線的經濟狀況惡化。過去三週，籃子中的三家主要美國航空公司損失了 12% 到 24% 的市值。</p>
</div><p>Cruise lines have been hit almost as hard. <strong>Carnival Corp.</strong> is down 20.14% as Gulf itineraries become unviable and fuel-cost forecasts are revised sharply higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>郵輪公司受到的打擊幾乎同樣嚴重。<strong>嘉年華公司</strong> 股價下跌 20.14%，因為海灣航線變得不可行，燃料成本預測大幅上調。</p>
</div><p><strong>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd</strong>. has shed 17.37%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>挪威郵輪公司</strong> 股價下跌 17.37%。</p>
</div><p>Logistics names — <strong>United Parcel Service Inc., Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.</strong> and <strong>J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.</strong> — have all fallen between 9% and 16% as global freight disruption and recessionary demand risk weigh simultaneously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>物流公司——<strong>聯合包裹服務公司、老德明貨運公司</strong> 和 <strong>J.B.亨特運輸服務公司</strong>——股價均下跌 9% 至 16%，因為全球貨運中斷和衰退需求風險同時施壓。</p>
</div><p>The gas pump tells the same story for American households. The national average for regular gasoline rose to $3.79 per gallon on Tuesday, the highest since October 2023, according to AAA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國家庭在油泵前的情況也是如此。根據 AAA 的數據，週二全國普通汽油的平均價格上漲至每加侖 3.79 美元，為 2023 年 10 月以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><h2>How Long Could The Iran War Last? What Prediction Markets And Analysts Are Saying</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊朗戰爭可能持續多久？預測市場和分析師的看法</h2>
</div><p>The sharpest signal on duration comes from prediction markets, where traders have sharply marked down the probability of a quick resolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於持續時間的最強信號來自預測市場，交易者大幅降低了快速解決的概率。</p>
</div><p>Polymarket currently assigns a 26% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 目前認為霍爾木茲海峽的交通在 4 月 30 日前恢復正常的概率為 26%。</p>
</div><p>This means participants believe there is a 74% chance the waterway remains functionally disrupted for at least six more weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着參與者認為該水道在至少六週內仍然會功能性中斷的概率為 74%。</p>
</div><p>The odds of a U.S. Navy escort by the end of this month stand at just 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到本月底，美國海軍護航的概率僅為 20%。</p>
</div><p>“We initially estimated the conflict to last 1–3 weeks, with a maximum of two months. As the war unfolds, we now expect something closer to roughly two months, though the dynamics remain self-limiting,” said <strong>Dan Alamariu</strong>, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, in a note this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們最初估計衝突將持續 1 至 3 周，最多兩個月。隨着戰爭的發展，我們現在預計會接近兩個月，儘管動態仍然是自我限制的，”<strong>Dan Alamariu</strong>，Alpine Macro 的首席地緣政治策略師，本週在一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>“Iran seems increasingly to be dictating the tempo. The regime is willing to absorb punishment to inflict economic and political pain,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“伊朗似乎越來越在主導節奏。該政權願意承受懲罰以施加經濟和政治壓力，” 他補充道。</p>
</div><p>Last week, Goldman Sachs revised its Brent price forecast upward by 20%, projecting an average of $100 per barrel in March, declining to $85 in April, on the assumption of a three-week disruption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，高盛將其布倫特原油價格預測上調 20%，預計 3 月平均為每桶 100 美元，4 月降至 85 美元，假設中斷持續三週。</p>
</div><p>The bank warned that if the closure extends to two months, its end-of-year forecast would rise from $71 to $93 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該銀行警告稱，如果關閉延續到兩個月，其年末預測將從每桶 71 美元上調至 93 美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>Tyler Goodspeed</strong>, chief economist at ExxonMobil, told CNBC that there are “many more scenarios, and more probable scenarios, in which the Strait remains effectively closed harder for longer” than there are scenarios where normal traffic resumes quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>泰勒·古德斯皮德</strong>，埃克森美孚的首席經濟學家，告訴 CNBC，存在 “更多的情景，以及更可能的情景，其中霍爾木茲海峽有效關閉的時間更長”，而不是正常交通迅速恢復的情景。</p>
</div><p>Until either diplomacy or naval force changes the facts on the ground in the Strait, the spread between these two baskets is the clearest real-time measure of how long Wall Street expects this war to last.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在外交或海軍力量改變霍爾木茲海峽的現狀之前，這兩個籃子的價差是華爾街對這場戰爭持續時間的最清晰實時衡量。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Below the Sky on Shutterstock.com</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：來自 Shutterstock.com 的 Below the Sky</em></p>
</div>

Markets Fear Prolonged Iran War – These 2 'Hormuz Stock Baskets' Show Why

benzinga_article

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市場擔心伊朗戰爭的長期化——這兩個 “霍爾木茲股票籃子” 揭示了原因