<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/SARB.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/SARB.png"/></p>
<p>南非蘭特本週正在復甦，收復自二月份以來的一些近期損失。美元/南非蘭特匯率降至 16.62，較本月高點 16.96 略有回落。那麼，在南非儲備銀行（SARB）和美聯儲的利率決策之前，這一對匯率會繼續下跌還是反彈呢？</p>
<h2>南非蘭特上漲，消費者通脹下降</h2>
<p>在國家統計局發佈最新通脹報告後，美元/南非蘭特對繼續強勁下跌趨勢。</p>
<p>該報告顯示，在伊朗戰爭開始之前，南非的通脹在二月份有所降温。二月份的消費者價格指數（CPI）較上月的 3.5% 上升了 3%。這一報告略好於中位數預期的 3.1%。</p>
<p>剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格後的核心通脹，從一月份的 3.4% 降至二月份的 3%。然而，這兩個指標在環比上升了 0.4% 和 0.7%。</p>
<p>儘管如此，二月份的通脹報告被視為無效，因為它發生在伊朗戰爭開始之前。這場戰爭可能會對南非及其他國家的通脹產生影響，因為它推高了原油、天然氣和化肥的價格。</p>
<p>因此，分析師認為，SARB 將在即將於 3 月 26 日召開的會議上維持 6.75% 的利率不變。暫停降息將幫助官員評估持續戰爭對國內通脹的影響。</p>
<p>持續的戰爭導致南非蘭特和債券被外國人拋售。數據顯示，上週非居民出售了 24.5 億美元的政府債券，這是自 2019 年以來最大的資金外流。這是一個重大轉變，因為這些投資者在年初的前兩個月購買了債券和股票。</p>
<h2>美聯儲利率決策</h2>
<p>美元/南非蘭特對的最直接催化劑將是即將到來的美聯儲利率決策，該決策將在今天晚些時候公佈。</p>
<p>經濟學家預計中央銀行將維持利率在 3.50% 至 3.75% 之間不變。</p>
<p>傑羅姆·鮑威爾和其他官員對通脹表示擔憂，預計隨着能源價格的上漲，通脹將在未來幾個月繼續上升。分析師認為，如果油價保持在 95 美元以上，通脹將上升至 3%。</p>
<p>儘管如此，銀行對滯漲表示擔憂，即高通脹與高失業率同時出現的情況。最新數據顯示，二月份失業率上升至 4.4%。</p>
<p>另一份報告顯示，去年第四季度經濟增長速度低於預期。</p>
<h2>美元/南非蘭特技術分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDZAR-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3574" height="2106" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDZAR-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>美元/南非蘭特圖表 | 來源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>日線圖顯示，美元對南非蘭特匯率在過去兩個月反彈，從 15.64 的低點上升至本月的 16.95 高點。</p>
<p>這一反彈發生在該對形成雙底形態和頸線位於 16.42，即今年二月份的最高水平之後。</p>
<p>本週它回落，因為油價基本穩定。然而，它仍然高於 50 日和 100 日指數移動平均線（EMA）。它也保持在超級趨勢指標之上。</p>
<p>因此，該對在未來幾天可能會恢復上升趨勢，可能達到年初至今的高點 16.95。突破該水平將指向更多的漲幅，可能達到關鍵阻力位 17.50。</p>
<p>這篇文章最初發表於 Invezz，標題為 “南非在美聯儲和 SARB 決策前復甦的美元/南非蘭特預測”。</p>

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<p>南非蘭特正在恢復，美元/南非蘭特匯率從 16.96 的高點下降至 16.62。這一變化是由於一份報告顯示，2 月份消費者通脹率降至 3%。分析師預計，南非儲備銀行將在對持續的伊朗戰爭引發的通脹擔憂中維持 6.75% 的利率。預計美聯儲也將維持 3.50% 至 3.75% 之間的利率不變。技術分析表明，如果美元/南非蘭特匯率突破 16.95，可能會繼續上漲，最終達到 17.50</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/SARB.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/SARB.png"/></p>
<p>The South African rand is staging a comeback this week, paring back some of the recent losses that started in February. The USD/ZAR exchange rate dropped to 16.62, down modestly from this month's high of 16.96. So, will the pair continue falling or rebound ahead of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>南非蘭特本週正在復甦，收復自二月份以來的一些近期損失。美元/南非蘭特匯率降至 16.62，較本月高點 16.96 略有回落。那麼，在南非儲備銀行（SARB）和美聯儲的利率決策之前，這一對匯率會繼續下跌還是反彈呢？</p>
</div><h2>South African rand rises as consumer inflation falls</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>南非蘭特上漲，消費者通脹下降</h2>
</div><p>The USD/ZAR pair continued its strong downward trend on Wednesday after the country’s statistics agency published the latest inflation report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在國家統計局發佈最新通脹報告後，美元/南非蘭特對繼續強勁下跌趨勢。</p>
</div><p>This report showed that the country’s inflation cooled in February before the Iran war started. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% in February compared with 3.5% a month earlier. This report was slightly better than the median estimate of 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該報告顯示，在伊朗戰爭開始之前，南非的通脹在二月份有所降温。二月份的消費者價格指數（CPI）較上月的 3.5% 上升了 3%。這一報告略好於中位數預期的 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, dropped from 3.4% in January to 3% in February. However, the two gauges rose 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively on a month-on-month basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格後的核心通脹，從一月份的 3.4% 降至二月份的 3%。然而，這兩個指標在環比上升了 0.4% 和 0.7%。</p>
</div><p>Still, February's inflation report is seen as a lame duck as it happened before the Iran war started. This war will likely have an impact on inflation in South Africa and other countries as it has pushed crude oil, natural gas, and fertilizer prices higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，二月份的通脹報告被視為無效，因為它發生在伊朗戰爭開始之前。這場戰爭可能會對南非及其他國家的通脹產生影響，因為它推高了原油、天然氣和化肥的價格。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, analysts believe that SARB will leave interest rates unchanged at 6.75% in the upcoming meeting on March 26. Pausing its rate cuts will help officials assess the impact of the ongoing war on inflation in the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，分析師認為，SARB 將在即將於 3 月 26 日召開的會議上維持 6.75% 的利率不變。暫停降息將幫助官員評估持續戰爭對國內通脹的影響。</p>
</div><p>The ongoing war has led to South African rand and bonds being sold by foreigners. Data shows that non-residents sold $2.45 billion of government bonds last week, the biggest outflow since 2019. This is a big turnaround as these investors bought bonds and stocks in the first two months of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持續的戰爭導致南非蘭特和債券被外國人拋售。數據顯示，上週非居民出售了 24.5 億美元的政府債券，這是自 2019 年以來最大的資金外流。這是一個重大轉變，因為這些投資者在年初的前兩個月購買了債券和股票。</p>
</div><h2>Federal Reserve interest rate decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲利率決策</h2>
</div><p>The most immediate catalyst for the USD/ZAR pair will be the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which comes later today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/南非蘭特對的最直接催化劑將是即將到來的美聯儲利率決策，該決策將在今天晚些時候公佈。</p>
</div><p>Economists expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家預計中央銀行將維持利率在 3.50% 至 3.75% 之間不變。</p>
</div><p>Jerome Powell and other officials are concerned about inflation, which is expected to keep rising in the coming months as energy prices jump. Analysts believe that inflation will rise to 3% if oil prices remain above $95.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傑羅姆·鮑威爾和其他官員對通脹表示擔憂，預計隨着能源價格的上漲，通脹將在未來幾個月繼續上升。分析師認為，如果油價保持在 95 美元以上，通脹將上升至 3%。</p>
</div><p>Still, the bank is concerned about stagflation, a situation where high inflation coincides with a high unemployment rate. The most recent data showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，銀行對滯漲表示擔憂，即高通脹與高失業率同時出現的情況。最新數據顯示，二月份失業率上升至 4.4%。</p>
</div><p>Another report showed that the economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the fourth quarter of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一份報告顯示，去年第四季度經濟增長速度低於預期。</p>
</div><h2>USD/ZAR technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/南非蘭特技術分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDZAR-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/03/USDZAR-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>USDZAR chart |Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>美元/南非蘭特圖表 | 來源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD to ZAR exchange rate has rebounded in the past two months, moving from a low of 15.64 to a high of 16.95 this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖顯示，美元對南非蘭特匯率在過去兩個月反彈，從 15.64 的低點上升至本月的 16.95 高點。</p>
</div><p>This rebound happened after the pair formed a double-bottom pattern and a neckline at 16.42, its highest level in February this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一反彈發生在該對形成雙底形態和頸線位於 16.42，即今年二月份的最高水平之後。</p>
</div><p>It has now pulled back this week as oil prices have largely stabilized. Still, it remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It has also remained above the Supertrend indicator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週它回落，因為油價基本穩定。然而，它仍然高於 50 日和 100 日指數移動平均線（EMA）。它也保持在超級趨勢指標之上。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the pair will likely resume the uptrend in the coming days, potentially to the year-to-date high of 16.95. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the key resistance level at 17.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，該對在未來幾天可能會恢復上升趨勢，可能達到年初至今的高點 16.95。突破該水平將指向更多的漲幅，可能達到關鍵阻力位 17.50。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/ZAR forecast as South Africa rebounds ahead of Fed, SARB decisions appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這篇文章最初發表於 Invezz，標題為 “南非在美聯儲和 SARB 決策前復甦的美元/南非蘭特預測”。</p>
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美元/南非蘭特的預測：南非在美聯儲和南非儲備銀行決策前反彈