<h2>關鍵要點</h2>
<ul>
<li>比特幣是一種稀缺的價值儲存工具。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>在戰爭時期，類似資產往往表現良好。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>一位加密貨幣內部人士正在有力地反駁這一觀點。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>我們更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
<p>當重大沖突或戰爭爆發時，許多投資者會選擇投資於黃金或土地等硬資產——任何無法被急需支付賬單的政府憑空創造的資產。</p>
<p>因此，你可能會認為美國與伊朗的衝突會讓加密貨幣內部人士爭相購買像 <strong>比特幣</strong>（CRYPTO: BTC）這樣的稀缺資產。但著名的加密投資者、BitMEX 交易所的聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 卻表示，他在 3 月 10 日的_Coin Stories_播客中稱，他現在不會投入一美元購買該幣。</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能會創造出世界上第一個萬億富翁嗎？</strong> 我們的團隊剛剛發佈了一份關於一家鮮為人知的公司報告，該公司被稱為 “不可或缺的壟斷”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的關鍵技術。<strong>繼續 »</strong></em></p>
<p>他還聲稱，戰爭有利於比特幣的廣泛觀點是不準確的。那麼，是什麼阻止他在此時購買該幣呢，如果不是對伊朗的攻擊？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDcyMC9iaXRjb2luLW1lZXRzLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LmpwZwI2dz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDcyMC9iaXRjb2luLW1lZXRzLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LmpwZwI2dz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>貨幣印刷往往推動比特幣</h2>
<p>在詳細闡述他的比特幣立場時，Hayes 認為，戰爭並不是推動比特幣價格上漲的因素——而是戰爭有時產生的貨幣印刷使得該幣上漲。Hayes 表示，當美聯儲開始印鈔時，他會再次開始購買比特幣，並且他還提到，衝突持續的時間越長，比特幣和股票大幅下跌的風險就越大。</p>
<p>讓我們更詳細地分析一下他所説的內容。</p>
<p>簡而言之，比特幣與賦予其價值的因素之間的關係在很大程度上取決於流動性。當中央銀行擴大貨幣供應量（廣義上衡量流通現金、儲蓄和近現金工具的指標）時，像加密貨幣這樣的風險資產往往會上漲。比特幣在這一模式下表現出異常的忠誠，其牛市與全球流動性擴張的時期始終重疊，通常存在幾個月的滯後期。</p>
<p>但 Hayes 的模型存在一個問題。美聯儲目前並沒有放鬆（增加流通貨幣的數量），也沒有暗示會這樣做。</p>
<p>消費者價格在 2 月份同比上漲了 2.4%，而由於伊朗鄰近霍爾木茲海峽的石油運輸中斷可能即將引發的能源衝擊，可能會使這一數字令人恐懼地上升。如果能源成本急劇上升並保持高位，隨着衝突的持續，這種可能性越來越大，通貨膨脹可能在年底達到 3%，遠高於美聯儲的 2% 目標。因此，目前看來，衝突使得降息的可能性降低，而不是增加，這與 Hayes 的理論所需的情況正好相反。</p>
<p>這意味着，等待印鈔信號再購買的投資者可能會面臨漫長的等待，他們可能因此錯失一些收益。</p>
<h2>不要試圖預測未來</h2>
<p>你不需要像 Arthur Hayes 那樣採取相同的比特幣投資策略。實際上，最好是採取長期的視角，因為無論美聯儲今年是否放寬政策，無論其行動的原因如何，比特幣的供應動態將繼續自動收緊。</p>
<p>由於比特幣挖礦，每天只有大約 450 個新幣進入市場，而在 2028 年初的下次減半事件中，這一數字將減半。從現在到那時，流動性的變化可能會在價格上升或下降，但無論發生什麼，未來進入市場的新供應量將永遠不會像現在這樣多，因此未來的買家將爭奪更少的幣，這在長期內會使價格偏向上漲。</p>
<p>Hayes 可能是對的，認為比特幣宏觀驅動的上漲最佳條件是在美聯儲開始降息之後。但大多數投資者沒有等待完美宏觀信號的奢侈。更實際的方法是通過定期購買，無論價格是上漲還是下跌，逐步建立頭寸，然後持有多年，以捕捉稀缺性帶來的長期順風。那就是我將繼續做的事情。</p>
<p>戰爭並不會使比特幣成為買入的理由，但其稀缺性確實如此。而稀缺性並不需要美聯儲的許可來獲得收益，儘管偶爾可能會有所幫助。</p>
<h2>你現在應該購買比特幣股票嗎？</h2>
<p>在你購買比特幣股票之前，請考慮以下幾點：</p>
<p>_Motley Fool Stock Advisor_分析團隊剛剛確定了他們認為現在投資者應該購買的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>……而比特幣並不在其中。這 10 只入選的股票在未來幾年可能會產生巨大的回報。</p>
<p>考慮一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日進入這個名單時……如果你在我們推薦時投資了 1000 美元，<strong>你現在將擁有 508,877 美元</strong>！* 或者 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日進入這個名單時……如果你在我們推薦時投資了 1000 美元，<strong>你現在將擁有 1,115,328 美元</strong>！*</p>
<p>現在，值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor_的總平均回報率為 936%——相比之下，標準普爾 500 指數的回報率為 189%。** 不要錯過最新的前 10 名單，加入由個人投資者為個人投資者建立的投資社區，獲取_Stock Advisor</em>。**</p>
<p><strong>查看這 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回報截至 2026 年 3 月 19 日。</em></p>
<p><em>Alex Carchidi 持有比特幣的頭寸。Motley Fool 持有並推薦比特幣。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>本文中表達的觀點和意見僅代表作者個人觀點，並不一定反映納斯達克公司的觀點。</p>

GLXY

<p>比特幣交易所 BitMEX 的聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 反對普遍認為戰爭會推動比特幣價格上漲的觀點。他表示，推動比特幣價值的並不是衝突，而是貨幣印刷。目前，美聯儲並未放寬貨幣政策，這可能會阻礙比特幣的價格增長。Hayes 建議在美聯儲增加流動性之前再考慮投資比特幣。然而，他也承認比特幣的稀缺性是長期價值的驅動因素，建議無論短期價格波動如何，都應採取逐步投資的方式</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關鍵要點</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Bitcoin is a scarce store of value.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>比特幣是一種稀缺的價值儲存工具。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Similar assets tend to do well during times of war.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在戰爭時期，類似資產往往表現良好。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>One crypto insider is convincingly disputing that view.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>一位加密貨幣內部人士正在有力地反駁這一觀點。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>我們更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p>When a major conflict or war breaks out, many investors respond by running toward hard assets like gold or land -- anything that can't be conjured from thin air by a government with urgent bills to pay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當重大沖突或戰爭爆發時，許多投資者會選擇投資於黃金或土地等硬資產——任何無法被急需支付賬單的政府憑空創造的資產。</p>
</div><p>Thus, you might expect that the U.S. conflict with Iran would have crypto insiders scrambling to load up on scarce assets like <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(CRYPTO: BTC). But not Arthur Hayes, a famous crypto investor and the co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, who said on the <em>Coin Stories</em> podcast on March 10 that he would not put even a single dollar into the coin right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，你可能會認為美國與伊朗的衝突會讓加密貨幣內部人士爭相購買像 <strong>比特幣</strong>（CRYPTO: BTC）這樣的稀缺資產。但著名的加密投資者、BitMEX 交易所的聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 卻表示，他在 3 月 10 日的_Coin Stories_播客中稱，他現在不會投入一美元購買該幣。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能會創造出世界上第一個萬億富翁嗎？</strong> 我們的團隊剛剛發佈了一份關於一家鮮為人知的公司報告，該公司被稱為 “不可或缺的壟斷”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的關鍵技術。<strong>繼續 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p>He also claimed that the widespread idea that war is favorable for Bitcoin is inaccurate. So what exactly is it that's stopping him from buying the coin here, if not the attack on Iran?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他還聲稱，戰爭有利於比特幣的廣泛觀點是不準確的。那麼，是什麼阻止他在此時購買該幣呢，如果不是對伊朗的攻擊？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2MDcyMC9iaXRjb2luLW1lZXRzLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F860720%2Fbitcoin-meets-wall-street.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Money printing tends to move Bitcoin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>貨幣印刷往往推動比特幣</h2>
</div><p>Elaborating on his Bitcoin stance, Hayes argued that war is not something that lifts Bitcoin's price -- it's the money printing that wars sometimes generate that sends the coin higher. Hayes says that he will start buying Bitcoin again when the Federal Reserve starts running the presses, and also that the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the risk of there being a major plunge for Bitcoin as well as for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在詳細闡述他的比特幣立場時，Hayes 認為，戰爭並不是推動比特幣價格上漲的因素——而是戰爭有時產生的貨幣印刷使得該幣上漲。Hayes 表示，當美聯儲開始印鈔時，他會再次開始購買比特幣，並且他還提到，衝突持續的時間越長，比特幣和股票大幅下跌的風險就越大。</p>
</div><p>Let's unpack what he's saying in a bit more detail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們更詳細地分析一下他所説的內容。</p>
</div><p>In short, the relationship between Bitcoin and what gives a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin its value comes down, in large part, to liquidity. When central banks expand the money supply (a broad measure of circulating cash, savings, and near-cash instruments), risk assets like crypto tend to climb. Bitcoin has tracked this pattern with unusual fidelity, and its bull markets have consistently overlapped with periods of expanding global liquidity, often with a lag period of a few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡而言之，比特幣與賦予其價值的因素之間的關係在很大程度上取決於流動性。當中央銀行擴大貨幣供應量（廣義上衡量流通現金、儲蓄和近現金工具的指標）時，像加密貨幣這樣的風險資產往往會上漲。比特幣在這一模式下表現出異常的忠誠，其牛市與全球流動性擴張的時期始終重疊，通常存在幾個月的滯後期。</p>
</div><p>But there's a problem with Hayes' model. The Fed isn't easing (increasing the amount of circulating money in the supply) right now, and it isn't hinting at it either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Hayes 的模型存在一個問題。美聯儲目前並沒有放鬆（增加流通貨幣的數量），也沒有暗示會這樣做。</p>
</div><p>Consumer prices rose 2.4% year over year in February, and the potentially imminent energy shock from the disruption to oil traffic in the Iran-adjacent Strait of Hormuz threatens to push that figure frighteningly higher. If energy costs rise sharply and stay elevated, which is more and more likely with every day the conflict continues, inflation could reach 3% by year's end, well above the Fed's 2% target. Therefore at present it appears to be the case that the confrontation is making interest rate cuts less likely, not more, which is the opposite of what Hayes' thesis requires to green light buying Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者價格在 2 月份同比上漲了 2.4%，而由於伊朗鄰近霍爾木茲海峽的石油運輸中斷可能即將引發的能源衝擊，可能會使這一數字令人恐懼地上升。如果能源成本急劇上升並保持高位，隨着衝突的持續，這種可能性越來越大，通貨膨脹可能在年底達到 3%，遠高於美聯儲的 2% 目標。因此，目前看來，衝突使得降息的可能性降低，而不是增加，這與 Hayes 的理論所需的情況正好相反。</p>
</div><p>This means that investors waiting for a printing press signal before buying may be in for a long wait, and they might miss out on some gains as a result.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着，等待印鈔信號再購買的投資者可能會面臨漫長的等待，他們可能因此錯失一些收益。</p>
</div><h2>Don't try to predict the future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不要試圖預測未來</h2>
</div><p>You don't need to tie yourself to taking the same approach to investing in Bitcoin as Arthur Hayes. It's actually probably best to take a longer-term perspective, because whether the Fed loosens policy this year, and regardless of the reasons for its course of action, Bitcoin's supply dynamics will continue to tighten on autopilot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你不需要像 Arthur Hayes 那樣採取相同的比特幣投資策略。實際上，最好是採取長期的視角，因為無論美聯儲今年是否放寬政策，無論其行動的原因如何，比特幣的供應動態將繼續自動收緊。</p>
</div><p>Only about 450 new coins enter the market each day as a result of Bitcoin mining, and that figure will get cut in half at the next halving event in early 2028. Changes in liquidity might boost or depress the coin's prices between now and then, as well as afterward. No matter what happens, there will never again be as much new supply entering the market as there is now, so future buyers will be competing over a smaller quantity of coins, which biases the price to the upside over the very long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於比特幣挖礦，每天只有大約 450 個新幣進入市場，而在 2028 年初的下次減半事件中，這一數字將減半。從現在到那時，流動性的變化可能會在價格上升或下降，但無論發生什麼，未來進入市場的新供應量將永遠不會像現在這樣多，因此未來的買家將爭奪更少的幣，這在長期內會使價格偏向上漲。</p>
</div><p>Hayes may well be right that the optimal conditions for a Bitcoin macro-driven rally arrives after the Fed begins cutting rates. But most investors don't have the luxury of waiting for a perfect macro signal. The more practical approach is to build a position gradually by buying at regular intervals whether the price is up or down, and then hold it for years so as to capture the long-term tailwinds that scarcity provides. And that's what I will continue doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hayes 可能是對的，認為比特幣宏觀驅動的上漲最佳條件是在美聯儲開始降息之後。但大多數投資者沒有等待完美宏觀信號的奢侈。更實際的方法是通過定期購買，無論價格是上漲還是下跌，逐步建立頭寸，然後持有多年，以捕捉稀缺性帶來的長期順風。那就是我將繼續做的事情。</p>
</div><p>The war doesn't make Bitcoin a buy, but its scarcity does. And scarcity doesn't need permission from the Federal Reserve to pay off, though it sure might help once in a while.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>戰爭並不會使比特幣成為買入的理由，但其稀缺性確實如此。而稀缺性並不需要美聯儲的許可來獲得收益，儘管偶爾可能會有所幫助。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你現在應該購買比特幣股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你購買比特幣股票之前，請考慮以下幾點：</p>
</div><p>The <em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> analyst team just identified what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_Motley Fool Stock Advisor_分析團隊剛剛確定了他們認為現在投資者應該購買的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>……而比特幣並不在其中。這 10 只入選的股票在未來幾年可能會產生巨大的回報。</p>
</div><p>Consider when <strong>Netflix</strong> made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $508,877</strong>!* Or when <strong>Nvidia</strong> made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $1,115,328</strong>!*</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日進入這個名單時……如果你在我們推薦時投資了 1000 美元，<strong>你現在將擁有 508,877 美元</strong>！* 或者 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日進入這個名單時……如果你在我們推薦時投資了 1000 美元，<strong>你現在將擁有 1,115,328 美元</strong>！*</p>
</div><p>Now, it’s worth noting <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 936% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 189% for the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with <em>Stock Advisor</em>, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor_的總平均回報率為 936%——相比之下，標準普爾 500 指數的回報率為 189%。** 不要錯過最新的前 10 名單，加入由個人投資者為個人投資者建立的投資社區，獲取_Stock Advisor</em>。**</p>
</div><p><strong>See the 10 stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看這 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of March 19, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回報截至 2026 年 3 月 19 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Alex Carchidi 持有比特幣的頭寸。Motley Fool 持有並推薦比特幣。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文中表達的觀點和意見僅代表作者個人觀點，並不一定反映納斯達克公司的觀點。</p>
</div>

This Crypto Insider Is Waiting to Buy Bitcoin – and It Has Nothing to Do With War

- Arthur Hayes 認為戰爭並不提升比特幣價格，關鍵在於貨幣印刷。  
- 當前美聯儲並未放寬貨幣政策，通脹上升使利率下降可能性降低。  
- 投資者應持續定期增持比特幣，以抓住未來稀缺帶來的機會。

nasdaq

Hut 8 Mining

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Galaxy Digital

Riot Platforms

Marathon Digital

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Coinbase

2 倍做多 MARA ETF - GraniteShares

Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

2 倍做多加密貨幣行業 ETF - Direxion

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

Fidelity Ethereum Fund

區塊鏈 ETF - Amplify

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

GraniteShares 2x Long MSTR Daily ETF

2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - T-Rex

21Shares Ethereum ETF

IShares Ethereum Trust ETF

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd MSTRMnETF

Bitwise MARA Option Income Strategy ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Franklin Ethereum ETF

納斯達克 NexGen 經濟 ETF - Reality Shares

VanEck Ethereum ETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

2 倍做多 COIN ETF - GraniteShares

Proshares Ether Strategy ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

2 倍做多 Coinbase ETF - Leverage Shares

Bitwise Ethereum ETF

Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ether Strategy ETF

這位加密貨幣業內人士正在等待購買比特幣——這與戰爭無關