<p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>2 年期國債收益率飆升至超過聯邦基金利率目標，給投資者帶來了更深層次的擔憂交易模式</p>
<p>週四，2 年期收益率超過了聯邦基金利率目標，而國債收益率曲線繼續趨平。</p>
<p>週四美國債券市場出現的令人擔憂的發展讓一些投資者將其與 2008 年金融危機前的情況進行了比較。</p>
<p>當前的問題始於由於美國與以色列對伊朗的戰爭導致的油價上漲，這增加了滯漲的風險以及 2026 年美聯儲加息的前景。布倫特原油（BRN00），全球油價基準，週四一度突破每桶 119 美元，因波斯灣的油氣基礎設施遭到攻擊。西德克薩斯中質原油期貨（CLJ26）一度突破每桶 100 美元。</p>
<p>但即使油價飆升、股價下跌，通常在市場不安時被視為避風港的國債也沒有持續反彈。相反，中東戰爭可能演變為全面能源危機的擔憂使得政策敏感的 2 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 在週四超過了美聯儲的利率目標。債券收益率與價格呈反向關係，價格下跌時收益率上升。</p>
<p>債券市場的拋售導致國債收益率曲線出現了交易員所稱的 “熊市趨平” 模式。這實際上早在 2 月初就已經開始。通常，當債券交易員為未來艱難的經濟環境做好準備時，這種模式就會出現。</p>
<p>這三種發展——油價超過每桶 100 美元、2 年期收益率超過聯邦基金利率以及債券市場的熊市陡峭化動態——讓一些投資者感到緊張。</p>
<p>根據彭博社的數據，上一次這三種情況同時出現是在 2008 年春末。大約四到五個月後，雷曼兄弟倒閉，開啓了 2008 年金融危機最嚴重的階段。標準普爾 500 指數 SPX 在那一年下跌了 38.5%。廣泛的抵押貸款違約也導致許多美國人失去家園。</p>
<p>當前的環境與那段令人不安的時期既有相似之處，也有不同之處。2008 年危機是由房地產泡沫破裂和次貸市場崩潰引發的，而目前投資者則關注與伊朗的持續戰爭，該戰爭始於 2 月 28 日，以及私人信貸行業壓力加大的跡象。投資者已經受到股票和債券雙重下跌的影響，這對任何持有 60-40 投資組合的退休儲蓄者來説都是雙重打擊。</p>
<p>經濟學家德里克·唐（Derek Tang）表示：“當前的環境讓我想起 2007-2008 年，當時金融系統確實出現了裂痕。” 現在的壞消息是 “我們正面臨能源價格衝擊，而美聯儲因通脹風險而受到限制，這使得降息變得更加困難。” 這一切發生在美國衰退的可能性正在增加之際，這對風險資產來説 “並不健康”。“這就是為什麼人們現在處於刀尖上的原因。”</p>
<p>週四，與利率路徑預期相關的 2 年期收益率一度上漲 21.8 個基點，達到近 3.96% 的日內高點，因基礎政府票據被積極拋售。最後的利率為 3.87%，高於美聯儲的利率目標區間 3.5% 至 3.75%。</p>
<p>2 年期收益率的上升速度快於基準 10 年期收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，後者幾乎沒有變化，維持在 4.25%——導致國債收益率曲線出現熊市趨平模式。週四，2 年期和 10 年期國債收益率之間的差距從前一天的 51.5 個基點縮小至約 46.9 個基點，且較 2 月初的 74 個基點有所下降。</p>
<p>曲線的熊市趨平已經對金融機構造成了傷害，這些機構依賴於短期利率借款以長期利率放貸，以及因其現金類特性而持有 2 年期國債的退休年齡投資者。隨着國債的拋售，其收益率上升，因此這些年長投資者本可以等待以更低的價格和更高的收益率購買。熊市趨平對更廣泛投資者的意義在於它傳遞了關於利率可能上升路徑和負面經濟前景的信號。</p>
<p>2 年期利率正在定價一個情景，即 “美聯儲將在未來幾年進入加息週期，” 紐約投資管理公司 FedWatch Advisors 的創始人本·埃蒙斯（Ben Emons）表示，他補充説他並不認同這一觀點。</p>
<p>然而，2008 年金融危機的重演並不一定會發生，因為 “我們尚未進入滯漲，經濟對油價的依賴程度也不如當時，” 埃蒙斯在電話採訪中表示。“我們有私人信貸問題，但這與當時的次貸危機有所不同。銀行系統比以前更具韌性。”</p>
<p>目前，聯邦基金期貨交易者預計今年不改變借貸成本的概率為 77.3%，預計到 12 月加息的可能性為 6.4%。週三，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）為加息的想法增添了一些可信度，稱官員們已經討論過他們的下一步是否應該提高利率，儘管這並不是目前中央銀行的基本情景。</p>
<p>另見：道瓊斯指數在鮑威爾明確表示沒有急於拯救市場後下跌近 800 點</p>
<p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>本文由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>03-19-26 1523ET</p>

道瓊斯美國指數

和順石油

<p>投資者注意到美國債券市場出現了令人擔憂的模式，這讓人想起了 2008 年金融危機。2 年期國債收益率已超過美聯儲的目標，而由於地緣政治緊張局勢，油價飆升。這導致國債收益率曲線出現熊市平坦化，預示着未來可能面臨經濟困難。專家警告稱，當前環境中能源價格上漲和衰退風險增加，可能會影響金融穩定，儘管 2008 年危機的重演並不是必然的</p>

<p>By Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>The 2-year Treasury yield spikes above the fed-funds rate target and produces a deeper, worrisome trading pattern for investors</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 年期國債收益率飆升至超過聯邦基金利率目標，給投資者帶來了更深層次的擔憂交易模式</p>
</div><p>The 2-year yield rose above the fed-funds rate target, while the Treasury curve continued to flatten on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，2 年期收益率超過了聯邦基金利率目標，而國債收益率曲線繼續趨平。</p>
</div><p>Troubling developments that unfolded in the U.S. bond market on Thursday had some investors drawing comparisons with the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四美國債券市場出現的令人擔憂的發展讓一些投資者將其與 2008 年金融危機前的情況進行了比較。</p>
</div><p>The current problems start with rising oil prices as a result of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which is raising the risk of stagflation and the prospect of a 2026 interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Brent crude (BRN00), the global oil benchmark, briefly blew past $119 a barrel on Thursday as attacks escalated on oil-and-gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures (CLJ26) briefly crossed $100 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前的問題始於由於美國與以色列對伊朗的戰爭導致的油價上漲，這增加了滯漲的風險以及 2026 年美聯儲加息的前景。布倫特原油（BRN00），全球油價基準，週四一度突破每桶 119 美元，因波斯灣的油氣基礎設施遭到攻擊。西德克薩斯中質原油期貨（CLJ26）一度突破每桶 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>But even as oil prices have spiked and stock prices have come down, Treasurys, often seen as a haven during times of market unease, haven't rallied on a continual basis. Instead, fears that the war in the Middle East could morph into a full-blown energy crisis pushed the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y above the Federal Reserve's interest-rate target on Thursday. Bond yields move inversely with prices, rising as prices fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使油價飆升、股價下跌，通常在市場不安時被視為避風港的國債也沒有持續反彈。相反，中東戰爭可能演變為全面能源危機的擔憂使得政策敏感的 2 年期國債收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 在週四超過了美聯儲的利率目標。債券收益率與價格呈反向關係，價格下跌時收益率上升。</p>
</div><p>The bond-market selloff has caused the Treasury yield curve to exhibit what traders describe as a &#34;bear-flattening&#34; pattern. This actually began back in early February. Typically, the pattern emerges when bond traders are bracing for a difficult economic environment ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>債券市場的拋售導致國債收益率曲線出現了交易員所稱的 “熊市趨平” 模式。這實際上早在 2 月初就已經開始。通常，當債券交易員為未來艱難的經濟環境做好準備時，這種模式就會出現。</p>
</div><p>The confluence of these three developments - oil above $100 a barrel, a 2-year yield above the fed funds rate and a bear-steepening dynamic in the bond market - is making some investors nervous.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這三種發展——油價超過每桶 100 美元、2 年期收益率超過聯邦基金利率以及債券市場的熊市陡峭化動態——讓一些投資者感到緊張。</p>
</div><p>The last time all three of those things unfolded simultaneously was in the late spring of 2008, according to Bloomberg data. About four or five months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed, ushering in the most acute phase of the 2008 financial crisis. The S&amp;P 500 SPX declined 38.5% that year. Widespread mortgage defaults also resulted in many Americans losing their homes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據彭博社的數據，上一次這三種情況同時出現是在 2008 年春末。大約四到五個月後，雷曼兄弟倒閉，開啓了 2008 年金融危機最嚴重的階段。標準普爾 500 指數 SPX 在那一年下跌了 38.5%。廣泛的抵押貸款違約也導致許多美國人失去家園。</p>
</div><p>The current environment includes both similarities and differences to that troubling time. Whereas the 2008 crisis was triggered by the bursting of a housing bubble and the subsequent collapse of the subprime mortgage market, investors are currently focused on the continued war with Iran, which began on Feb. 28, as well as signs of increasing stress in the private-credit industry. Already, investors have been impacted by twin declines in stocks and bonds, which amount to a double-whammy for anybody holding their retirement savings in a 60-40 portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前的環境與那段令人不安的時期既有相似之處，也有不同之處。2008 年危機是由房地產泡沫破裂和次貸市場崩潰引發的，而目前投資者則關注與伊朗的持續戰爭，該戰爭始於 2 月 28 日，以及私人信貸行業壓力加大的跡象。投資者已經受到股票和債券雙重下跌的影響，這對任何持有 60-40 投資組合的退休儲蓄者來説都是雙重打擊。</p>
</div><p>The current environment &#34;does remind me of 2007-2008, when you did have cracks in the financial system,&#34; said economist Derek Tang of Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington. The bad news now is &#34;we are going into an energy-price shock and the Fed's hands are tied because of inflation risks, which make it harder to cut rates.&#34; This is all happening as the chance of a U.S. recession is growing, which is &#34;not healthy&#34; for risk assets. &#34;That's why people are on a knife's edge right now.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家德里克·唐（Derek Tang）表示：“當前的環境讓我想起 2007-2008 年，當時金融系統確實出現了裂痕。” 現在的壞消息是 “我們正面臨能源價格衝擊，而美聯儲因通脹風險而受到限制，這使得降息變得更加困難。” 這一切發生在美國衰退的可能性正在增加之際，這對風險資產來説 “並不健康”。“這就是為什麼人們現在處於刀尖上的原因。”</p>
</div><p>On Thursday, the 2-year yield, which is tied to expectations for the path of interest rates, jumped by as much as 21.8 basis points to an intraday high of almost 3.96% as the underlying government note aggressively sold off. The rate was 3.87% at last check, above the Fed's interest-rate target of between 3.5% and 3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，與利率路徑預期相關的 2 年期收益率一度上漲 21.8 個基點，達到近 3.96% 的日內高點，因基礎政府票據被積極拋售。最後的利率為 3.87%，高於美聯儲的利率目標區間 3.5% 至 3.75%。</p>
</div><p>The 2-year yield climbed at a faster pace than the benchmark 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, which was little changed at 4.25% -producing a bear-flattening pattern of the Treasury curve. The difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields shrank to around 46.9 basis points on Thursday from 51.5 basis points a day ago, and is down from 74 basis points in early February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 年期收益率的上升速度快於基準 10 年期收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，後者幾乎沒有變化，維持在 4.25%——導致國債收益率曲線出現熊市趨平模式。週四，2 年期和 10 年期國債收益率之間的差距從前一天的 51.5 個基點縮小至約 46.9 個基點，且較 2 月初的 74 個基點有所下降。</p>
</div><p>The curve's bear flattening is already hurting financial institutions, which rely on borrowing at short-term rates to lend at long-term rates, and retirement-age investors who held the 2-year Treasury note because of its cash-like qualities. As the note sells off, its yield rises so those older investors could have waited to buy at a lower price and higher yield. The bear-flattening's significance to investors more broadly rests in the signals it sends about the likely upward path for interest rates and a negative economic outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曲線的熊市趨平已經對金融機構造成了傷害，這些機構依賴於短期利率借款以長期利率放貸，以及因其現金類特性而持有 2 年期國債的退休年齡投資者。隨着國債的拋售，其收益率上升，因此這些年長投資者本可以等待以更低的價格和更高的收益率購買。熊市趨平對更廣泛投資者的意義在於它傳遞了關於利率可能上升路徑和負面經濟前景的信號。</p>
</div><p>The 2-year rate is pricing in a scenario in which &#34;the Fed will have to move into a rate-hiking cycle for the next few years,&#34; said Ben Emons, founder of the New York-based investment management firm FedWatch Advisors, who added that he does not share this view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 年期利率正在定價一個情景，即 “美聯儲將在未來幾年進入加息週期，” 紐約投資管理公司 FedWatch Advisors 的創始人本·埃蒙斯（Ben Emons）表示，他補充説他並不認同這一觀點。</p>
</div><p>However, a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is not necessarily in the cards because &#34;we're not in stagflation yet and the economy is not as reliant on oil prices as it was back then,&#34; Emons said in a phone interview. &#34;We have private-credit issues, but there's a difference between that and the subprime crisis at the time. The banking system is far more resilient than before.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，2008 年金融危機的重演並不一定會發生，因為 “我們尚未進入滯漲，經濟對油價的依賴程度也不如當時，” 埃蒙斯在電話採訪中表示。“我們有私人信貸問題，但這與當時的次貸危機有所不同。銀行系統比以前更具韌性。”</p>
</div><p>Fed-funds futures traders currently see a 77.3% chance of no change in borrowing costs this year and a 6.4% likelihood of one rate hike by December. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell lent some credence to the idea of a hike by saying officials have deliberated on whether their next move should be to lift rates, although this is not currently the central bank's base-case scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，聯邦基金期貨交易者預計今年不改變借貸成本的概率為 77.3%，預計到 12 月加息的可能性為 6.4%。週三，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）為加息的想法增添了一些可信度，稱官員們已經討論過他們的下一步是否應該提高利率，儘管這並不是目前中央銀行的基本情景。</p>
</div><p>See also: Dow falls nearly 800 points after Powell makes one thing clear: There's no rush to rescue the market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另見：道瓊斯指數在鮑威爾明確表示沒有急於拯救市場後下跌近 800 點</p>
</div><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>03-19-26 1523ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>03-19-26 1523ET</p>
</div>

投資者發現了一個自 2008 年危機前以來未曾見過的市場模式