<p>惠譽上週五的報告。情景分析突顯了油價上行風險的規模，霍爾木茲海峽的長期干擾可能將布倫特原油推向 120 美元，並使市場保持波動。</p>
<p>摘要：</p>
<ul>
<li>惠譽概述了與霍爾木茲海峽關閉持續時間相關的油價情景</li>
<li>在六個月的干擾下，布倫特預計在 2026 年平均為 120 美元/桶</li>
<li>三個月關閉情景指向約 100 美元/桶的平均價格</li>
<li>基本情況仍為 70 美元/桶，假設僅為暫時性干擾</li>
<li>在長期關閉期間，價格可能飆升至 130–170 美元/桶</li>
<li>預計霍爾木茲海峽的運輸量損失約為 1500 萬桶/日</li>
<li>在長期干擾情景中預計需求減少</li>
<li>國際能源署的儲備釋放預計將緩解近期供應衝擊</li>
</ul>
<p>惠譽評級已為 2026 年概述了一系列油價情景，突顯了霍爾木茲海峽干擾的持續時間如何顯著重塑全球能源前景。</p>
<p>在其最新分析中，該機構估計，如果霍爾木茲海峽在明年有效關閉六個月，布倫特原油的平均價格可能高達 120 美元/桶。即使是較短的三個月干擾，價格仍會大幅上漲，預計 2026 年布倫特的平均價格約為 100 美元/桶。</p>
<p>這兩種情景與惠譽的基本情況有顯著差異，後者假設干擾較為暫時，並預測平均價格為 70 美元/桶。該基線考慮了當前危機驅動的短期價格飆升，隨後隨着供應條件正常化，價格預計在年底前回落至 60 美元/桶。</p>
<p>然而，在更嚴重的干擾情景下，價格動態變得更加波動。惠譽預計，在關閉期間，油價將急劇飆升，在長期六個月的干擾中，價格可能在 130 至 170 美元/桶之間平均。即使在較短的干擾情景中，價格在高峰時也預計接近 130 美元，隨後在年內回落至 90 美元/桶。</p>
<p>這些預測的核心驅動因素是供應干擾的規模。惠譽估計，霍爾木茲海峽的關閉將使市場上約 1500 萬桶/日的運輸量消失，即使假設仍有一些有限的流動繼續。</p>
<p>在這些條件下，為了平衡市場，該機構預計將出現需求減少和供應側響應的組合。在三個月的情景中，需求預計下降約 2.5%，而六個月的干擾可能導致約 5.5% 的更深度收縮。還假設國際能源署協調的戰略儲備額外釋放將有助於抵消衝擊。</p>
<p>儘管有這些緩解因素，惠譽強調，油市可能仍將高度波動。地緣政治風險溢價仍然較高，關於衝突持續時間和供應干擾程度的不確定性繼續主導前景。</p>
<p>接下來會發生什麼？</p>
<p>現在市場的關鍵變量是持續時間。</p>
<p>如果霍爾木茲海峽相對快速地重新開放，油市可能會遵循惠譽的基本情況，出現一次急劇但暫時的價格飆升，隨後隨着供應鏈正常化和戰略儲備的部署而回落。</p>
<p>然而，如果幹擾持續超過幾個月，動態將發生顯著變化。長期關閉將迫使市場通過需求減少、更高的價格和更激進的政策響應進行更深層次的再平衡。在這種情況下，油價可能會持續交易於地緣政治溢價之上，130 美元以上的價格飆升將變得更加頻繁。</p>
<p>市場還將密切關注緩解措施的有效性。戰略儲備釋放、沙特阿拉伯的東西管道等替代出口路線，以及非海灣生產者的供應響應可能會在邊際上幫助穩定價格，但不太可能完全抵消霍爾木茲海峽流量的損失。</p>
<p>另一個關鍵風險是升級。如果霍爾木茲以外的基礎設施，如紅海航線或關鍵出口終端，受到持續壓力，供應衝擊可能進一步加深，推動價格接近惠譽預測的上限。</p>
<p>最終，油價的走勢將取決於當前的危機是否仍然是一個有限的干擾，還是演變為全球能源流動的更長期結構性變化。目前，市場可能對地緣政治發展和供應調整的跡象保持高度敏感。</p>

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

英國石油

<p>惠譽評級預測，如果霍爾木茲海峽關閉六個月，布倫特原油價格可能在 2026 年達到每桶 120 美元，而如果關閉時間縮短至三個月，平均價格將約為 100 美元。基準情況假設為暫時性中斷，價格為 70 美元。長期關閉可能導致價格飆升至 130-170 美元，原因是每日運輸量損失 1500 萬桶。預計需求減少和戰略儲備釋放將緩解影響，但由於地緣政治風險，油市的波動性仍然可預見</p>

<p>Fitch’s note from Friday. Scenarios highlight the scale of upside risk to oil prices, with prolonged Hormuz disruption potentially driving Brent toward $120 and keeping markets volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠譽上週五的報告。情景分析突顯了油價上行風險的規模，霍爾木茲海峽的長期干擾可能將布倫特原油推向 120 美元，並使市場保持波動。</p>
</div><p>Summary:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摘要：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Fitch outlines oil price scenarios tied to duration of Hormuz closure</li>
<li>Brent seen averaging $120/bbl in 2026 under six-month disruption</li>
<li>Three-month closure scenario points to ~$100/bbl average</li>
<li>Base case remains $70/bbl, assuming only temporary disruption</li>
<li>Prices could spike to $130–$170/bbl during extended closure</li>
<li>Estimated loss of ~15mb/d in transit volumes through Hormuz</li>
<li>Demand destruction expected in prolonged disruption scenarios</li>
<li>IEA reserve releases seen cushioning near-term supply shock</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>惠譽概述了與霍爾木茲海峽關閉持續時間相關的油價情景</li>
<li>在六個月的干擾下，布倫特預計在 2026 年平均為 120 美元/桶</li>
<li>三個月關閉情景指向約 100 美元/桶的平均價格</li>
<li>基本情況仍為 70 美元/桶，假設僅為暫時性干擾</li>
<li>在長期關閉期間，價格可能飆升至 130–170 美元/桶</li>
<li>預計霍爾木茲海峽的運輸量損失約為 1500 萬桶/日</li>
<li>在長期干擾情景中預計需求減少</li>
<li>國際能源署的儲備釋放預計將緩解近期供應衝擊</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Fitch Ratings has outlined a range of oil price scenarios for 2026, highlighting how the duration of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could significantly reshape the global energy outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠譽評級已為 2026 年概述了一系列油價情景，突顯了霍爾木茲海峽干擾的持續時間如何顯著重塑全球能源前景。</p>
</div><p>In its latest analysis, the agency estimates that Brent crude could average as high as $120 per barrel next year if the Strait remains effectively closed for six months. A shorter, three-month disruption would still push prices materially higher, with Brent seen averaging around $100 per barrel for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其最新分析中，該機構估計，如果霍爾木茲海峽在明年有效關閉六個月，布倫特原油的平均價格可能高達 120 美元/桶。即使是較短的三個月干擾，價格仍會大幅上漲，預計 2026 年布倫特的平均價格約為 100 美元/桶。</p>
</div><p>Both scenarios mark a sharp departure from Fitch’s base case, which assumes a more temporary disruption and forecasts an average price of $70 per barrel. That baseline incorporates a near-term spike driven by the current crisis, followed by a gradual easing as supply conditions normalise and prices fall back toward $60 per barrel by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩種情景與惠譽的基本情況有顯著差異，後者假設干擾較為暫時，並預測平均價格為 70 美元/桶。該基線考慮了當前危機驅動的短期價格飆升，隨後隨着供應條件正常化，價格預計在年底前回落至 60 美元/桶。</p>
</div><p>Under the more severe disruption scenarios, however, price dynamics become significantly more volatile. Fitch expects oil to spike sharply during the period of closure, with prices potentially averaging between $130 and $170 per barrel in a prolonged six-month disruption. Even in a shorter disruption scenario, prices are seen holding near $130 during the peak before easing back toward $90 per barrel later in the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在更嚴重的干擾情景下，價格動態變得更加波動。惠譽預計，在關閉期間，油價將急劇飆升，在長期六個月的干擾中，價格可能在 130 至 170 美元/桶之間平均。即使在較短的干擾情景中，價格在高峰時也預計接近 130 美元，隨後在年內回落至 90 美元/桶。</p>
</div><p>The core driver behind these projections is the scale of supply disruption. Fitch estimates that a closure of the Strait would remove around 15 million barrels per day of transit volumes from the market, even assuming some limited flows continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些預測的核心驅動因素是供應干擾的規模。惠譽估計，霍爾木茲海峽的關閉將使市場上約 1500 萬桶/日的運輸量消失，即使假設仍有一些有限的流動繼續。</p>
</div><p>To balance the market under these conditions, the agency expects a combination of demand destruction and supply-side responses. In the three-month scenario, demand is projected to fall by around 2.5%, while a six-month disruption could trigger a deeper contraction of roughly 5.5%. Additional releases from strategic reserves — including those coordinated by the International Energy Agency — are also assumed to help offset the shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這些條件下，為了平衡市場，該機構預計將出現需求減少和供應側響應的組合。在三個月的情景中，需求預計下降約 2.5%，而六個月的干擾可能導致約 5.5% 的更深度收縮。還假設國際能源署協調的戰略儲備額外釋放將有助於抵消衝擊。</p>
</div><p>Despite these mitigating factors, Fitch emphasises that oil markets are likely to remain highly volatile. The geopolitical risk premium remains elevated, and uncertainty around the duration of the conflict and the extent of supply disruption continues to dominate the outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管有這些緩解因素，惠譽強調，油市可能仍將高度波動。地緣政治風險溢價仍然較高，關於衝突持續時間和供應干擾程度的不確定性繼續主導前景。</p>
</div><p>What happens next?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下來會發生什麼？</p>
</div><p>The key variable for markets now is duration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在市場的關鍵變量是持續時間。</p>
</div><p>If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened relatively quickly, the oil market may follow something close to Fitch’s base case, a sharp but temporary spike followed by a retracement as supply chains normalise and strategic reserves are deployed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果霍爾木茲海峽相對快速地重新開放，油市可能會遵循惠譽的基本情況，出現一次急劇但暫時的價格飆升，隨後隨着供應鏈正常化和戰略儲備的部署而回落。</p>
</div><p>However, if disruption persists beyond a few months, the dynamics shift meaningfully. A prolonged closure would force a deeper rebalancing of the market through demand destruction, higher prices, and more aggressive policy responses. In this scenario, oil would likely trade with a sustained geopolitical premium, with spikes above $130 becoming more frequent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果幹擾持續超過幾個月，動態將發生顯著變化。長期關閉將迫使市場通過需求減少、更高的價格和更激進的政策響應進行更深層次的再平衡。在這種情況下，油價可能會持續交易於地緣政治溢價之上，130 美元以上的價格飆升將變得更加頻繁。</p>
</div><p>Markets will also closely monitor the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Strategic reserve releases, alternative export routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, and supply responses from non-Gulf producers could help stabilise prices at the margin — but are unlikely to fully offset the loss of Hormuz flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場還將密切關注緩解措施的有效性。戰略儲備釋放、沙特阿拉伯的東西管道等替代出口路線，以及非海灣生產者的供應響應可能會在邊際上幫助穩定價格，但不太可能完全抵消霍爾木茲海峽流量的損失。</p>
</div><p>Another key risk is escalation. If infrastructure outside Hormuz, such as Red Sea routes or key export terminals, comes under sustained pressure, the supply shock could deepen further, pushing prices toward the upper end of Fitch’s projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個關鍵風險是升級。如果霍爾木茲以外的基礎設施，如紅海航線或關鍵出口終端，受到持續壓力，供應衝擊可能進一步加深，推動價格接近惠譽預測的上限。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the path of oil prices will hinge on whether the current الأزمة remains a contained disruption or evolves into a more prolonged structural shift in global energy flows. For now, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments and signs of supply adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，油價的走勢將取決於當前的危機是否仍然是一個有限的干擾，還是演變為全球能源流動的更長期結構性變化。目前，市場可能對地緣政治發展和供應調整的跡象保持高度敏感。</p>
</div>

ICYMI: Fitch sees Brent at $120 if Hormuz closure persists in 2026

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惠譽預計，如果霍爾木茲海峽在 2026 年持續關閉，布倫特原油價格可能會達到 120 美元