<p>TradingKey - 由於伊朗戰爭引發的油價驅動的通脹衝擊，市場對美聯儲降息的廣泛預期已完全破滅，債券交易員現在正忙於調整他們的策略。</p>
<p>上週，主要央行關於通脹的警告導致短期收益率飆升，交易員們徹底抹去了對 2026 年進一步美聯儲寬鬆的預期，押注降息的策略遭到嚴重打擊。</p>
<p>截至上週五，全球基準原油價格維持在自 2022 年以來的最高水平，市場情緒發生了戲劇性的逆轉——一度交易員甚至預計到十月底美聯儲加息的概率為 50%。</p>
<p>週一，交易員進一步加大了對美聯儲加息的押注，預計年內將加息 20 個基點。</p>
<p>數據顯示，市場對美聯儲今年行動的預期已從一週前的 25 個基點降息和上週五的 8 個基點加息，轉變為目前的 20 個基點加息。</p>
<p>Natixis 北美區美國利率策略負責人 John Briggs 表示：“只要中東戰爭處於升級模式而非降級模式，市場對通脹的擔憂將超過對增長的擔憂，這在近期供應衝擊的歷史背景下是合理的——現在是觀望的好時機，讓塵埃落定，然後再重新評估。”</p>
<h2>地緣政治衝突升級擾動全球債券市場</h2>
<p>中東衝突引發全球債券市場的劇烈波動。由於油價飆升推動了通脹預期，全球債券市場的價值在 3 月份蒸發了超過 2.5 萬億美元，標誌着自 2022 年 9 月以來最大的月度下降，滯脹的陰影籠罩市場。</p>
<p>根據彭博社彙編的數據，截至 3 月 23 日，全球政府、企業和證券化債務的總市場價值已從 2 月底的近 77 萬億美元降至 74.4 萬億美元，月度下降 3.1%。這一趨勢顯著異常，打破了在地緣政治動盪期間資本流入債券以尋求安全的常規。</p>
<p>兩年期美國國債收益率回升至 3.9% 以上，觸及自去年 7 月以來的最高水平。去年 7 月，由於就業數據疲軟，國債收益率曲線的前端急劇下跌，開啓了持續七個月的下行趨勢；然而，自伊朗襲擊以來，這些損失已完全抹去。</p>
<p>Finom Group 首席市場策略師 Seth Golden 在一篇帖子中指出，兩年期國債收益率已與聯邦基金利率脱鈎，聯邦基金期貨市場正在增加對今年加息的押注，這種情況與 2022 年相似。</p>
<p>他表示，2022 年的加息對消費者經濟沒有產生顯著影響，當時受到財政驅動因素的緩衝，特別是政府轉移支付和税收立法——這種緩衝至今仍在持續。</p>
<p>他補充説，美聯儲主席提名人 Kevin Warsh 可能會主張利用美聯儲工具箱中的其他工具來應對再通脹風險，而不僅僅依賴於利率調整。</p>
<h2>中央銀行陷入加息困境</h2>
<p>債券拋售的加速蔓延，市場迅速消化滯脹預期，導致多箇中央銀行被迫在經濟下行期間加息，陷入困境。持續高企的油價迫使主要中央銀行重新評估其貨幣政策路徑，全球加息預期迅速升温。</p>
<p>法國外貿銀行的利率策略團隊在上週的一份客户報告中指出，如果能源價格保持高位且勞動力市場穩定，美聯儲可能會在 4 月的政策會議上發出加息信號。</p>
<p>在歐元區，市場預計 4 月加息 25 個基點的概率約為 71%，普遍預期歐洲央行幾乎肯定會在 6 月底之前加息。就在本週一，歐洲央行副行長 Luis de Guindos 也發出了鷹派信號，暗示該行可能會採取行動以應對伊朗戰爭的影響而加息。</p>
<p>香港東華銀行高級經濟學家 Nguyen Trinh 指出，通脹壓力的上升限制了中央銀行的政策操作空間，迫使一些中央銀行在經濟下行期間加息以遏制通脹，防止本國貨幣貶值。</p>
<p>StoneX Group 首席市場策略師 Kathryn Rooney Vera 表示，市場開始定價即將到來的滯脹衝擊，戰爭拖得越久，油價可能越高。</p>
<p>與此同時，全球經濟將在本週迎來自中東戰爭爆發以來的首次 “全面檢查”，多個國家將發佈一系列初步的 3 月份 PMI 數據。這組數據被視為戰爭對全球經濟影響的關鍵指標，將為市場提供觀察企業活動和經濟信心變化的重要窗口。</p>
<p>週二，包括澳大利亞、日本、印度、歐元區、英國和美國在內的主要全球經濟體將同時發佈初步 PMI 數據，形成 “全球 PMI 日”。</p>
<p>行業專家普遍預計，由於能源價格飆升和供應鏈中斷，許多國家的製造業和服務業 PMI 數據可能會同步走弱，製造業面臨的壓力可能尤其顯著。分析師指出，這是戰爭開始以來市場首次收到定量證據，以評估對全球經濟的累積影響。</p>
<p>標準普爾全球市場情報的首席商業經濟學家 Chris Williamson 強調，儘管當前市場關注點集中在戰爭帶來的通脹壓力上，但中央銀行也需要警惕其帶來的衰退風險。因此，PMI 數據中反映的需求疲軟和信心下降的信號將成為政策制定者的關鍵關注點。</p>
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<p>正在進行的伊朗戰爭大幅改變了市場對美聯儲降息的預期，交易員們現在預計由於油價飆升導致的通脹上升，年底前將加息 20 個基點。全球債券市場經歷了顯著的波動，價值損失超過 2.5 萬億美元，中央銀行面臨在經濟下行壓力下加息的壓力。分析師表示，持續高企的油價可能迫使中央銀行調整貨幣政策，預計美國和歐元區都將加息</p>

<p>TradingKey - Following the oil-price-driven inflationary shock triggered by the war in Iran, widespread market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been completely dashed, and bond traders are now scrambling to adjust their strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 由於伊朗戰爭引發的油價驅動的通脹衝擊，市場對美聯儲降息的廣泛預期已完全破滅，債券交易員現在正忙於調整他們的策略。</p>
</div><p>Last week, warnings from major central banks regarding inflation sent short-term yields surging, leading traders to completely erase expectations for further Fed easing through 2026, as strategies betting on rate cuts were broadly hammered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，主要央行關於通脹的警告導致短期收益率飆升，交易員們徹底抹去了對 2026 年進一步美聯儲寬鬆的預期，押注降息的策略遭到嚴重打擊。</p>
</div><p>By last Friday, as global benchmark crude oil prices remained at their highest levels since 2022, market sentiment underwent a dramatic reversal—at one point, traders even priced in a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至上週五，全球基準原油價格維持在自 2022 年以來的最高水平，市場情緒發生了戲劇性的逆轉——一度交易員甚至預計到十月底美聯儲加息的概率為 50%。</p>
</div><p>On Monday, traders further ramped up bets on Fed rate hikes, pricing in a 20-basis-point increase by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一，交易員進一步加大了對美聯儲加息的押注，預計年內將加息 20 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Data shows that market expectations for Fed action this year have shifted from a 25-basis-point cut a week ago and an 8-basis-point hike last Friday to a 20-basis-point hike currently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據顯示，市場對美聯儲今年行動的預期已從一週前的 25 個基點降息和上週五的 8 個基點加息，轉變為目前的 20 個基點加息。</p>
</div><p>John Briggs, Head of US Rates Strategy at Natixis North America, stated: &#34;As long as the war in the Middle East is in escalation mode rather than de-escalation mode, market concerns over inflation will outweigh concerns over growth, which is reasonable given the history of recent supply shocks—now is a good time to sit on the sidelines, let the dust settle, and then reassess.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Natixis 北美區美國利率策略負責人 John Briggs 表示：“只要中東戰爭處於升級模式而非降級模式，市場對通脹的擔憂將超過對增長的擔憂，這在近期供應衝擊的歷史背景下是合理的——現在是觀望的好時機，讓塵埃落定，然後再重新評估。”</p>
</div><h2>Escalating Geopolitical Conflict Roils Global Bond Markets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>地緣政治衝突升級擾動全球債券市場</h2>
</div><p>The conflict in the Middle East is triggering severe volatility in global bond markets. Driven by soaring oil prices that have pushed up inflation expectations, global bond market value evaporated by more than $2.5 trillion in March, marking the largest monthly decline since September 2022 as the specter of stagflation looms over the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東衝突引發全球債券市場的劇烈波動。由於油價飆升推動了通脹預期，全球債券市場的價值在 3 月份蒸發了超過 2.5 萬億美元，標誌着自 2022 年 9 月以來最大的月度下降，滯脹的陰影籠罩市場。</p>
</div><p>According to data compiled by Bloomberg, as of March 23, the total market value of global government, corporate, and securitized debt has fallen from nearly $77 trillion at the end of February to $74.4 trillion, a monthly decline of 3.1%. This trend is notably anomalous, breaking the convention of capital flowing into bonds for safety during periods of geopolitical turmoil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據彭博社彙編的數據，截至 3 月 23 日，全球政府、企業和證券化債務的總市場價值已從 2 月底的近 77 萬億美元降至 74.4 萬億美元，月度下降 3.1%。這一趨勢顯著異常，打破了在地緣政治動盪期間資本流入債券以尋求安全的常規。</p>
</div><p>The two-year U.S. Treasury yield returned above 3.9%, touching its highest level since last July. In July of last year, the front end of the Treasury yield curve plunged sharply due to weak employment data, initiating a steady seven-month downward trend; however, these losses have been entirely erased since the attack on Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兩年期美國國債收益率回升至 3.9% 以上，觸及自去年 7 月以來的最高水平。去年 7 月，由於就業數據疲軟，國債收益率曲線的前端急劇下跌，開啓了持續七個月的下行趨勢；然而，自伊朗襲擊以來，這些損失已完全抹去。</p>
</div><p>Seth Golden, chief market strategist at Finom Group, noted in a post that the two-year Treasury yield has decoupled from the federal funds rate, and the federal funds futures market is increasing bets on a rate hike this year, a situation mirroring 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Finom Group 首席市場策略師 Seth Golden 在一篇帖子中指出，兩年期國債收益率已與聯邦基金利率脱鈎，聯邦基金期貨市場正在增加對今年加息的押注，這種情況與 2022 年相似。</p>
</div><p>He stated that the 2022 rate hikes did not have a significant impact on the consumer economy, which was cushioned by fiscal-driven factors at the time, specifically government transfer payments and tax legislation—a buffer that continues to persist today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，2022 年的加息對消費者經濟沒有產生顯著影響，當時受到財政驅動因素的緩衝，特別是政府轉移支付和税收立法——這種緩衝至今仍在持續。</p>
</div><p>He added that Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh might advocate for utilizing other tools in the Federal Reserve's toolkit to address reflation risks, rather than relying solely on interest rate adjustments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充説，美聯儲主席提名人 Kevin Warsh 可能會主張利用美聯儲工具箱中的其他工具來應對再通脹風險，而不僅僅依賴於利率調整。</p>
</div><h2>Central Bank Caught in Rate Hike Dilemma</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中央銀行陷入加息困境</h2>
</div><p>The bond sell-off is accelerating its spread as markets rapidly digest stagflation expectations, leaving multiple central banks caught in the dilemma of being forced to raise interest rates during an economic downturn. Persistently high oil prices are compelling major central banks to reassess their monetary policy paths, and global rate hike expectations are heating up quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>債券拋售的加速蔓延，市場迅速消化滯脹預期，導致多箇中央銀行被迫在經濟下行期間加息，陷入困境。持續高企的油價迫使主要中央銀行重新評估其貨幣政策路徑，全球加息預期迅速升温。</p>
</div><p>BNP Paribas' interest rate strategy team noted in a client report last week that if energy prices remain high and the labor market stays stable, the Federal Reserve may signal a rate hike at its April policy meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法國外貿銀行的利率策略團隊在上週的一份客户報告中指出，如果能源價格保持高位且勞動力市場穩定，美聯儲可能會在 4 月的政策會議上發出加息信號。</p>
</div><p>In the Eurozone, markets see a roughly 71% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in April, with widespread expectations that the European Central Bank is almost certain to raise rates by at least the end of June. Just this Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos also issued hawkish signals, suggesting the bank might take action to raise rates in response to the impacts of the war in Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在歐元區，市場預計 4 月加息 25 個基點的概率約為 71%，普遍預期歐洲央行幾乎肯定會在 6 月底之前加息。就在本週一，歐洲央行副行長 Luis de Guindos 也發出了鷹派信號，暗示該行可能會採取行動以應對伊朗戰爭的影響而加息。</p>
</div><p>Nguyen Trinh, a senior economist at Donghua Bank in Hong Kong, pointed out that higher inflationary pressures have constrained central banks' policy maneuvering room, forcing some to raise interest rates during an economic downturn to curb inflation and prevent domestic currency depreciation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港東華銀行高級經濟學家 Nguyen Trinh 指出，通脹壓力的上升限制了中央銀行的政策操作空間，迫使一些中央銀行在經濟下行期間加息以遏制通脹，防止本國貨幣貶值。</p>
</div><p>Kathryn Rooney Vera, Chief Market Strategist at StoneX Group, stated that the market is beginning to price in the impending stagflation shock, and the longer the war drags on, the higher oil prices may rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneX Group 首席市場策略師 Kathryn Rooney Vera 表示，市場開始定價即將到來的滯脹衝擊，戰爭拖得越久，油價可能越高。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the global economy will face its first &#34;comprehensive check-up&#34; this week since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, as multiple countries release a flurry of preliminary March PMI data. This data set is seen as a key indicator of the war's impact on the global economy and will provide the market with an important window to observe changes in corporate activity and economic confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，全球經濟將在本週迎來自中東戰爭爆發以來的首次 “全面檢查”，多個國家將發佈一系列初步的 3 月份 PMI 數據。這組數據被視為戰爭對全球經濟影響的關鍵指標，將為市場提供觀察企業活動和經濟信心變化的重要窗口。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, major global economies including Australia, Japan, India, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US will simultaneously release preliminary PMI data, forming a &#34;Global PMI Day.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，包括澳大利亞、日本、印度、歐元區、英國和美國在內的主要全球經濟體將同時發佈初步 PMI 數據，形成 “全球 PMI 日”。</p>
</div><p>Industry experts generally expect that, due to surging energy prices and supply chain disruptions, manufacturing and services PMI data in many countries may weaken in tandem, with the pressure on manufacturing likely to be particularly significant. Analysts pointed out that this will be the first time in the three weeks since the war began that the market has received quantitative evidence to gauge the cumulative impact on the global economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行業專家普遍預計，由於能源價格飆升和供應鏈中斷，許多國家的製造業和服務業 PMI 數據可能會同步走弱，製造業面臨的壓力可能尤其顯著。分析師指出，這是戰爭開始以來市場首次收到定量證據，以評估對全球經濟的累積影響。</p>
</div><p>Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, emphasized that while current market focus is concentrated on the inflationary push from the war, central banks also need to be wary of the recessionary risks it brings. Therefore, signals of weak demand and declining confidence reflected in the PMI data will also be a key focus for policymakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標準普爾全球市場情報的首席商業經濟學家 Chris Williamson 強調，儘管當前市場關注點集中在戰爭帶來的通脹壓力上，但中央銀行也需要警惕其帶來的衰退風險。因此，PMI 數據中反映的需求疲軟和信心下降的信號將成為政策制定者的關鍵關注點。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
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A 20-Basis-Point Rate Hike? Iran War Rewrites Fed Monetary Policy, Global Bond Markets Under Pressure

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20 個基點的加息？伊朗戰爭重塑美聯儲貨幣政策，全球債券市場面臨壓力