<p>作者：安東尼·J·龐普利亞諾，專業資本管理創始人兼首席執行官；翻譯：Shaw &amp; 金色財經</p>
<p><strong>黃金、債券和比特幣反映了當前金融市場的真實趨勢。</strong> 我們最近看到黃金價格暴跌至每盎司 4100 美元，債券價格持續上漲，而自衝突爆發以來，比特幣上漲了約 8%。</p>
<p>那麼，為什麼會發生這一切？這三種資產類別為我們預示了什麼未來趨勢？</p>
<p>我們可以從債券開始。多年來，數萬億美元流入美國國債市場。美國國債因其極高的流動性、幾乎為零的信用風險、可預測的回報以及州和地方税收的優勢而對投資者極具吸引力。** 通常，在不確定性加劇的時期，避險需求會推高國債價格並壓低收益率。** 這種需求源於投資者希望避免在股票和公司債券中可能出現的大額損失。美國政府被廣泛視為金融市場的最終安全網，因此國債被認為是風險最低的資產。** 然而，在伊朗衝突期間，市場的反應卻截然不同：**** 國債收益率上升，價格下跌。** 這主要是由於油價的急劇上漲，帶來了滯漲的典型風險。** 滯漲風險使得美聯儲對降息感到猶豫，通脹擔憂重新浮現。** 通脹擔憂改變了投資者的決策邏輯，阻止他們積極推高國債價格並壓低收益率。自 2 月 28 日以來，美國國債實際上成為主要資產中表現最差的之一，完全違背了傳統市場邏輯。但如果債市的這種異常表現伴隨着一種罕見而極端的威脅呢？如果購買美國國債可能招致導彈攻擊呢？這並非假設。昨晚，伊朗議會議長在推特上發佈了一條措辭極為強烈的推文，內容如下：“除了軍事基地，所有資助美國軍事預算的金融實體都是合法目標。美國國債沾染了伊朗人民的鮮血。購買這些債券等同於邀請對你的總部和資產進行攻擊。我們正在監控你的投資組合。這是最後通牒。” 這個威脅有多嚴重？我無法判斷。但金融機構可能成為與美國直接軍事衝突的國家的目標這一想法令人不安。這一聲明會阻止人們購買美國國債嗎？可能不會。但歷史上發生過更離奇的事情。這一最新威脅只是伊朗應對當前衝突的又一個例子。他們繼續向美國軍事基地和鄰近中東國家的能源設施發射導彈和無人機，封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，並攻擊試圖穿越這一危險水域的多艘船隻。就在這個週末，伊朗還威脅要切斷海峽的海底互聯網電纜。這一策略讓我想起了一條在 Reddit 上廣為流傳的帖子，解釋了為什麼你永遠不應該與失去理智的人對抗：“永遠不要與不可預測、精神不穩定或不講道理的人打架。這些人往往不受約束，會使用 ‘卑鄙’ 的手段將你拖入他們的層次，而你無論如何都會失敗。他們更危險，因為他們不可預測且無所畏懼。” 這種不可預測性，加上他們造成最大破壞的意圖，使美國處於一種不尋常的境地。我們可以隨時停止轟炸該國並宣佈勝利，但沒有保證伊朗會停止攻擊其鄰國或放棄其核武器計劃。在這種高度不確定的時期，黃金價格應該迅速上漲是合乎邏輯的。投資者通常會轉向避險資產，希望對抗因融資戰爭而導致的貨幣貶值風險。但在這場衝突中，情況並非如此。黃金價格暴跌，自衝突開始以來下跌了約 13%。一些人可能將這種拋售歸因於美聯儲可能加息，但我不同意。我更傾向於相信，東方世界的個人、機構和國家正面臨流動性危機。這些正是過去兩年大量購買黃金的羣體。因此，隨着美元走強，這些黃金持有者可能因流動性需求而出售黃金——這是籌集現金的最簡單方式。這將我們引向比特幣。這種加密貨幣在這場衝突中成為一個被忽視的贏家。Ash Crypto 數據顯示：“自美伊衝突爆發以來，比特幣相對於黃金上漲了 34%。” 這種強勁表現受到多種因素的推動，但我真心相信，世界正在認識到比特幣作為一種非主權、去中心化資產的魅力——它可以在幾秒鐘內轉移到世界任何地方。在我們即將進入的未來，不依賴空運的價值儲存的吸引力顯而易見。因此，在這場戰爭結束之前，我的判斷是：油價將繼續上漲，債券和黃金將保持壓力，而比特幣將超越其他價值儲存。這可能不是投資者在衝突爆發前所預期的，但這就是現實。教科書理論無法改變真實市場。記住這一點：一旦伊朗戰爭結束，金融市場必然會迅速反彈。特朗普總統在週五晚些時候告訴記者，美國即將逐步結束衝突，而股市在盤後交易中幾乎瞬間上漲，這清楚地證明了這一點。因此，投資者現在正在進行一場賭博。我們願意接受多大的回撤來押注特朗普政府達成停火？我們都知道，在風向變化時持有頭寸可能會帶來可觀的回報，但精確的時機幾乎是不可能的。這意味着你要麼接受投資組合的回撤，要麼退出市場，冒着錯過反彈的風險。每個投資者都有不同的策略。但有一點是不可否認的……金融資產的運動正受到中東的炸彈、國內油價和白宮佔有者的推文的支配。生活在這個時代真是令人驚歎。</p>

GDXW

紫金礦業

20 年期以上美國國債 ETF - iShares

<p>黃金、債券和比特幣反映了當前金融市場的真實趨勢。黃金價格已暴跌至每盎司 4100 美元，而債券價格則在上漲，自衝突開始以來，比特幣上漲了約 8%。通常被視為安全的美國國債因滯脹風險和來自伊朗的威脅表現不佳。黃金價格已下跌約 13%，這可能與東方世界的流動性需求有關。相比之下，比特幣相對於黃金上漲了 34%，突顯了其在市場動盪中作為去中心化資產的吸引力</p>

<p>Author: Anthony J. Pompliano, Founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management; Translated by: Shaw &amp; Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安東尼·J·龐普利亞諾，專業資本管理創始人兼首席執行官；翻譯：Shaw &amp; 金色財經</p>
</div><p><strong>Gold, bonds, and Bitcoin are reflecting the true trends of the current financial markets.</strong> We have recently seen gold prices plummet to $4,100 per ounce, bond prices continue to rise, and Bitcoin has risen by about 8% since the outbreak of the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>黃金、債券和比特幣反映了當前金融市場的真實趨勢。</strong> 我們最近看到黃金價格暴跌至每盎司 4100 美元，債券價格持續上漲，而自衝突爆發以來，比特幣上漲了約 8%。</p>
</div><p>So why is all this happening? What future trends do these three asset classes foreshadow for us?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，為什麼會發生這一切？這三種資產類別為我們預示了什麼未來趨勢？</p>
</div><p>We can start with bonds. Over the years, trillions of dollars have flowed into the US Treasury market. U.S. Treasury bonds are highly attractive to investors due to their extremely high liquidity, near-zero credit risk, predictable returns, and tax advantages at the state and local levels. **Typically, during periods of heightened uncertainty, safe-haven demand drives up Treasury prices and suppresses yields.** This demand stems from investors' desire to avoid potentially large losses in stocks and corporate bonds. The U.S. government is widely regarded as the ultimate safety net for financial markets, thus Treasury bonds are considered the lowest-risk asset. **However, during the Iran conflict, the market reacted quite differently:** **Treasury yields rose, and prices fell.** This was due to a sharp rise in oil prices, which brought the typical risk of stagflation. **Stagflation risk made the Federal Reserve hesitant to cut interest rates, and inflation concerns resurfaced.** Inflation concerns altered investors' decision-making logic, preventing them from aggressively pushing up Treasury prices and suppressing yields. Since February 28, U.S. Treasury bonds have actually been one of the worst-performing major assets, completely contrary to conventional market logic. But what if this abnormal performance in the bond market is accompanied by a rare and extreme threat? What if buying U.S. Treasury bonds could invite a missile attack? This is not hypothetical. Last night, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament posted a tweet with extremely strong language, which read as follows: &#34;Apart from military bases, all financial entities that fund the US military budget are legitimate targets. US Treasury bonds are stained with the blood of the Iranian people. Buying these bonds is tantamount to inviting attacks on your headquarters and assets. We are monitoring your investment portfolios. This is an ultimatum.&#34; How serious is this threat? I cannot judge. But the very idea that financial institutions could become targets of countries engaged in direct military conflict with the United States is unsettling. Will this statement deter people from buying US Treasury bonds? Probably not. But even more bizarre things have happened in history. This latest threat is just another example of Iran's strategy for dealing with the current conflict. They continue to launch missiles and drones at US military bases and energy facilities in several neighboring Middle Eastern countries, have blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and attacked numerous ships attempting to cross this dangerous waterway. And just this weekend, Iran also threatened to cut the undersea internet cable in the strait. This strategy reminds me of a long-circulated Reddit post explaining why you should never confront someone who has lost their temper: &#34;Never get into a fight with someone who is unpredictable, mentally unstable, or unreasonable. These people are often unrestrained and will use 'despicable' tactics to drag you down to their level, and you'll lose no matter what. They are more dangerous because they are unpredictable and fearless.&#34; This unpredictability, coupled with their intent to cause maximum destruction, has put the United States in an unusual position. We can stop bombing the country and declare victory at any time, but there's no guarantee that Iran will stop attacking its neighbors or abandon its nuclear weapons program. In such times of heightened uncertainty, gold prices should logically rise rapidly. Investors often turn to safe-haven assets, hoping to hedge against the risk of currency devaluation caused by financing war. But in this conflict, this is not the case. Gold prices have plummeted, falling approximately 13% since the conflict began. Some might attribute this sell-off to a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike, but I disagree. I'm more inclined to believe that individuals, institutions, and nations in the Eastern world are facing a liquidity crisis. These are precisely the groups that have been buying gold heavily over the past two years. Therefore, with the dollar strengthening, these gold holders are likely selling their gold due to liquidity needs—the easiest way to raise cash. This brings us to Bitcoin. This cryptocurrency has become an overlooked winner in this conflict. Ash Crypto data shows that &#34;Bitcoin has risen 34% relative to gold in the 23 days since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict.&#34; This strong performance is driven by multiple factors, but I genuinely believe the world is recognizing the allure of Bitcoin as a non-sovereign, decentralized asset—it can be transferred anywhere in the world in seconds. In the future we are about to enter, the appeal of a store of value that doesn't rely on air transport is self-evident. Therefore, before this war ends, my judgment is: oil prices will continue to rise, bonds and gold will remain under pressure, while Bitcoin will outperform other stores of value. This may not have been what investors expected before the conflict broke out, but it is the reality. Textbook theories cannot change the real market. Remember this: once the Iran war ends, financial markets will inevitably rebound sharply. The fact that President Trump told reporters late Friday that the US was about to gradually end the conflict, and the stock market rose almost instantly in after-hours trading, is clear evidence of this. So investors are now playing a gamble. How much drawdown are we willing to accept to bet on the Trump administration reaching a ceasefire? We all know that holding positions when the wind changes can yield substantial returns, but precise timing is almost impossible. This means you either have to accept portfolio drawdowns or stay out of the market and risk missing out on the rebound. Every investor has a different strategy. But one thing is undeniable… the movement of financial assets is being dictated by bombs in the Middle East, domestic oil prices, and tweets from the White House occupant. It's truly remarkable to live in this era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們可以從債券開始。多年來，數萬億美元流入美國國債市場。美國國債因其極高的流動性、幾乎為零的信用風險、可預測的回報以及州和地方税收的優勢而對投資者極具吸引力。** 通常，在不確定性加劇的時期，避險需求會推高國債價格並壓低收益率。** 這種需求源於投資者希望避免在股票和公司債券中可能出現的大額損失。美國政府被廣泛視為金融市場的最終安全網，因此國債被認為是風險最低的資產。** 然而，在伊朗衝突期間，市場的反應卻截然不同：**** 國債收益率上升，價格下跌。** 這主要是由於油價的急劇上漲，帶來了滯漲的典型風險。** 滯漲風險使得美聯儲對降息感到猶豫，通脹擔憂重新浮現。** 通脹擔憂改變了投資者的決策邏輯，阻止他們積極推高國債價格並壓低收益率。自 2 月 28 日以來，美國國債實際上成為主要資產中表現最差的之一，完全違背了傳統市場邏輯。但如果債市的這種異常表現伴隨着一種罕見而極端的威脅呢？如果購買美國國債可能招致導彈攻擊呢？這並非假設。昨晚，伊朗議會議長在推特上發佈了一條措辭極為強烈的推文，內容如下：“除了軍事基地，所有資助美國軍事預算的金融實體都是合法目標。美國國債沾染了伊朗人民的鮮血。購買這些債券等同於邀請對你的總部和資產進行攻擊。我們正在監控你的投資組合。這是最後通牒。” 這個威脅有多嚴重？我無法判斷。但金融機構可能成為與美國直接軍事衝突的國家的目標這一想法令人不安。這一聲明會阻止人們購買美國國債嗎？可能不會。但歷史上發生過更離奇的事情。這一最新威脅只是伊朗應對當前衝突的又一個例子。他們繼續向美國軍事基地和鄰近中東國家的能源設施發射導彈和無人機，封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，並攻擊試圖穿越這一危險水域的多艘船隻。就在這個週末，伊朗還威脅要切斷海峽的海底互聯網電纜。這一策略讓我想起了一條在 Reddit 上廣為流傳的帖子，解釋了為什麼你永遠不應該與失去理智的人對抗：“永遠不要與不可預測、精神不穩定或不講道理的人打架。這些人往往不受約束，會使用 ‘卑鄙’ 的手段將你拖入他們的層次，而你無論如何都會失敗。他們更危險，因為他們不可預測且無所畏懼。” 這種不可預測性，加上他們造成最大破壞的意圖，使美國處於一種不尋常的境地。我們可以隨時停止轟炸該國並宣佈勝利，但沒有保證伊朗會停止攻擊其鄰國或放棄其核武器計劃。在這種高度不確定的時期，黃金價格應該迅速上漲是合乎邏輯的。投資者通常會轉向避險資產，希望對抗因融資戰爭而導致的貨幣貶值風險。但在這場衝突中，情況並非如此。黃金價格暴跌，自衝突開始以來下跌了約 13%。一些人可能將這種拋售歸因於美聯儲可能加息，但我不同意。我更傾向於相信，東方世界的個人、機構和國家正面臨流動性危機。這些正是過去兩年大量購買黃金的羣體。因此，隨着美元走強，這些黃金持有者可能因流動性需求而出售黃金——這是籌集現金的最簡單方式。這將我們引向比特幣。這種加密貨幣在這場衝突中成為一個被忽視的贏家。Ash Crypto 數據顯示：“自美伊衝突爆發以來，比特幣相對於黃金上漲了 34%。” 這種強勁表現受到多種因素的推動，但我真心相信，世界正在認識到比特幣作為一種非主權、去中心化資產的魅力——它可以在幾秒鐘內轉移到世界任何地方。在我們即將進入的未來，不依賴空運的價值儲存的吸引力顯而易見。因此，在這場戰爭結束之前，我的判斷是：油價將繼續上漲，債券和黃金將保持壓力，而比特幣將超越其他價值儲存。這可能不是投資者在衝突爆發前所預期的，但這就是現實。教科書理論無法改變真實市場。記住這一點：一旦伊朗戰爭結束，金融市場必然會迅速反彈。特朗普總統在週五晚些時候告訴記者，美國即將逐步結束衝突，而股市在盤後交易中幾乎瞬間上漲，這清楚地證明了這一點。因此，投資者現在正在進行一場賭博。我們願意接受多大的回撤來押注特朗普政府達成停火？我們都知道，在風向變化時持有頭寸可能會帶來可觀的回報，但精確的時機幾乎是不可能的。這意味着你要麼接受投資組合的回撤，要麼退出市場，冒着錯過反彈的風險。每個投資者都有不同的策略。但有一點是不可否認的……金融資產的運動正受到中東的炸彈、國內油價和白宮佔有者的推文的支配。生活在這個時代真是令人驚歎。</p>
</div>

Gold, Bonds, and Bitcoin: Three Revealers of the Truths of the Financial Markets

- 金價驟降至 $4,100 ，債券收益上升，Bitcoin 在衝突中上漲約 8%。
- 美國國債面臨伊朗威脅，或導致金融市場動盪與不確定性加劇。
- 預計戰後金融市場將強勁反彈，投資者正面臨重要選擇。

黃金、債券和比特幣：揭示金融市場真相的三大揭示者