<p>[紐約] 華爾街正在下調對美國經濟今年的預測，提高了對通脹和失業率的預期，並增加了經濟衰退的可能性，因為伊朗戰爭的影響開始顯現。</p>
<p>高盛表示，由於油價飆升，未來 12 個月經濟下滑的風險上升至 30%，並預測到 2026 年底失業率將從 2 月份的 4.4% 上升至 4.6%。幾家公司表示，今年的通脹率將更接近 3% 而非 2%，這將侵蝕可支配收入並抑制招聘。</p>
<p>這與原本預計的 2026 年強勁增長的局面形成了鮮明對比，當時美國總統唐納德·特朗普的關税衝擊逐漸消退，減税刺激措施開始發揮作用。即使戰鬥很快結束，經濟學家表示，已經造成的損害將使美國經濟保持在狹窄的基礎上，求職者和低收入消費者將繼續面臨困難。</p>
<p>“由於這場戰爭，經濟的許多方面將變得更加疲軟，” 牛津經濟研究院首席美國經濟學家南希·範登·霍滕表示。</p>
<p>“影響非常明顯，變化很快，” 範登·霍滕説。“你只需經過當地的加油站。”</p>
<p>特朗普的《一項美麗的法案》所帶來的退税幫助緩解了衝擊。但預測者開始預計，退税的增加——支撐 2026 年消費者支出樂觀預測的關鍵因素——將被更高的能源成本有效抵消。</p>
<p>根據美國汽車協會的數據，本月汽油價格已上漲超過 30%，達到每加侖約 4 美元，標誌着自 2005 年卡特里娜颶風導致墨 Gulf Coast 石油生產中斷以來的最大漲幅。</p>
<p>與此同時，關於退税的早期數據未能達到預期。在 3 月 23 日的報告中，摩根士丹利經濟學家估計，退税的跟蹤數據比去年高出 12%，低於他們預期的 15% 至 25% 的增長。該行下調了對消費者支出的預測，預計 2026 年將增長 1.7%，而不是 2%。</p>
<p>“油價衝擊基本上抵消了我們所依賴的那一波增長，” 摩根士丹利的阿魯尼瑪·辛哈表示。</p>
<p>這使得美國在 2026 年的增長軌跡大約為 2%，這在很大程度上得益於數據中心的持續投資，這些投資被認為相對不受昂貴進口能源的影響，因為美國擁有豐富的廉價天然氣。</p>
<p>但這使得經濟依賴於對人工智能的持續投資者樂觀情緒，以及高收入者的相關支出，這些支出得益於不斷增長的投資組合，幫助在 2025 年儘管就業增長几乎為零的情況下保持擴張。</p>
<p>儘管美國正在通過外交努力推動結束與伊朗的戰爭，油價有所回落，但布倫特原油仍維持在每桶約 100 美元。即使雙方能夠儘快達成結束敵對行動的協議，預測者警告稱，霍爾木茲海峽的石油運輸恢復需要時間。該地區的石油基礎設施損壞，加上各國在衝突後重建庫存的全球需求增加，也將維持高於戰爭前的油價。</p>
<p>美國消費者在購買汽油或機票時已經可以看到影響。但戰爭造成的日益嚴重的肥料短缺也將推動食品價格在年內上漲。柴油燃料價格的上漲速度甚至超過了普通汽油，這將增加運輸成本，最終可能推動一系列已經因關税而上漲的消費品價格。</p>
<p>“每個人都非常擔心事情需要多長時間才能解決，” BMO 資本市場的高級經濟學家詹妮弗·李表示。“即使今天解決了，也需要一些生產。事情恢復需要很長時間。”</p>
<p>許多經濟學家認為，支出減少將轉化為招聘減少，這意味着在 2025 年經歷了前所未有的低就業增長後，2026 年將再次出現微薄的就業增長。</p>
<h2>消費者影響</h2>
<p>包括花旗集團在內的幾家華爾街公司預測今年失業率將上升。這是許多人堅持認為美國聯邦儲備將在 2026 年某個時候恢復降息的原因之一，儘管投資者最近幾天急於押注加息。</p>
<p>就業增長放緩也可能反過來影響消費者支出的前景，花旗經濟學家吉塞拉·楊表示。</p>
<p>“如果就業增長繼續進一步放緩——目前平均幾乎為零——這可能會對消費者造成另一個逆風，” 楊表示，並補充説花旗預計今年工資增長將再次放緩。</p>
<p>早期跡象顯示的影響比迅速惡化的前景更為複雜。摩根大通和美國銀行的經濟學家表示，信用卡消費的每週內部數據在 3 月中旬顯示幾乎沒有放緩的跡象，這表明消費者在支付更多油費的情況下尚未開始縮減支出。</p>
<p>密歇根大學將於週五發佈其每月消費者信心調查的最終結果。預測者預計根據彭博社調查的中位數估計，3 月份將顯示下降，但不會降至 11 月的水平，後者是三年多以來的最低讀數。</p>
<p>“衝突的前兩週，你並沒有看到消費者支出方面的明顯變化，” 摩根大通首席美國經濟學家邁克爾·費羅利表示。但 “我確實認為這會稍微削弱擴張的動力。” BLOOMBERG</p>

納斯達克綜合指數

道瓊斯公共事業指數

標普 500 指數

道瓊斯指數

<p>華爾街正在下調對美國經濟的預測，將衰退風險提高至 30%，原因是伊朗戰爭對油價的影響。高盛預測到 2026 年失業率將上升至 4.6%，而通脹預計將達到 3%。税收退款低於預期，影響了消費者支出的增長。本月油價上漲超過 30%，對消費者和企業的成本產生了影響。經濟學家警告稱，即使衝突結束，經濟復甦也將緩慢，潛在的就業增長仍然疲弱，商品價格可能會保持高位</p>

<p>[NEW YORK] Wall Street is cutting its forecasts for the US economy this year, boosting its projections for inflation and unemployment and nudging up the odds of a recession as the impact of the Iran war starts to come into view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[紐約] 華爾街正在下調對美國經濟今年的預測，提高了對通脹和失業率的預期，並增加了經濟衰退的可能性，因為伊朗戰爭的影響開始顯現。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs says the risk of a downturn over the next 12 months has risen to 30 per cent as a result of the surge in oil prices, and predicts the jobless rate will climb to 4.6 per cent by the end of 2026 from 4.4 per cent in February. Several firms say inflation will now be closer to 3 per cent this year than 2 per cent, eating into disposable incomes and keeping a lid on hiring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛表示，由於油價飆升，未來 12 個月經濟下滑的風險上升至 30%，並預測到 2026 年底失業率將從 2 月份的 4.4% 上升至 4.6%。幾家公司表示，今年的通脹率將更接近 3% 而非 2%，這將侵蝕可支配收入並抑制招聘。</p>
</div><p>That’s a shift from what was supposed to be a strong year in 2026 as the shock of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs faded into the background and stimulus from tax cuts kicked in. Even if the fighting ends soon, economists say the damage already done will keep the US economy on a narrow footing, with job seekers and lower-income consumers alike continuing to struggle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這與原本預計的 2026 年強勁增長的局面形成了鮮明對比，當時美國總統唐納德·特朗普的關税衝擊逐漸消退，減税刺激措施開始發揮作用。即使戰鬥很快結束，經濟學家表示，已經造成的損害將使美國經濟保持在狹窄的基礎上，求職者和低收入消費者將繼續面臨困難。</p>
</div><p>“Lots of elements of the economy are going to be weaker because of this war,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, the lead US economist at Oxford Economics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由於這場戰爭，經濟的許多方面將變得更加疲軟，” 牛津經濟研究院首席美國經濟學家南希·範登·霍滕表示。</p>
</div><p>“The impact is very visible very quickly,” Vanden Houten said. “You just have to drive by your local gas station.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“影響非常明顯，變化很快，” 範登·霍滕説。“你只需經過當地的加油站。”</p>
</div><p>Tax refunds, amped up by Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, have helped blunt the blow. But forecasters are starting to expect the increase in refunds, a key element underpinning sunny forecasts for consumer spending in 2026, will be effectively neutralised by higher energy costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的《一項美麗的法案》所帶來的退税幫助緩解了衝擊。但預測者開始預計，退税的增加——支撐 2026 年消費者支出樂觀預測的關鍵因素——將被更高的能源成本有效抵消。</p>
</div><p>The price of petrol has surged more than 30 per cent so far this month to about US$4 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association, marking the biggest increase since Hurricane Katrina knocked out Gulf Coast oil production in 2005.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據美國汽車協會的數據，本月汽油價格已上漲超過 30%，達到每加侖約 4 美元，標誌着自 2005 年卡特里娜颶風導致墨 Gulf Coast 石油生產中斷以來的最大漲幅。</p>
</div><p>Early data on tax refunds, meanwhile, are coming up short of expectations. In a Mar 23 report, Morgan Stanley economists estimated refunds are tracking 12 per cent higher than last year, below the 15 to 25 per cent increase they had anticipated. The bank downgraded its forecast for consumer spending, projecting a 1.7 per cent increase in 2026 instead of 2 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，關於退税的早期數據未能達到預期。在 3 月 23 日的報告中，摩根士丹利經濟學家估計，退税的跟蹤數據比去年高出 12%，低於他們預期的 15% 至 25% 的增長。該行下調了對消費者支出的預測，預計 2026 年將增長 1.7%，而不是 2%。</p>
</div><p>“The oil shock essentially washes out that bump that we were counting on,” Morgan Stanley’s Arunima Sinha said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“油價衝擊基本上抵消了我們所依賴的那一波增長，” 摩根士丹利的阿魯尼瑪·辛哈表示。</p>
</div><p>That leaves the US on track for growth of around 2 per cent in 2026 by most accounts, thanks in large part to ongoing investments in data centres that is seen as relatively insulated from costly imported energy thanks to America’s abundance of cheap natural gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得美國在 2026 年的增長軌跡大約為 2%，這在很大程度上得益於數據中心的持續投資，這些投資被認為相對不受昂貴進口能源的影響，因為美國擁有豐富的廉價天然氣。</p>
</div><p>But it keeps the economy dependent on continued investor optimism towards artificial intelligence, and the associated spending by top earners, buoyed by growing portfolios that helped keep the expansion going in 2025 despite near-zero job growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這使得經濟依賴於對人工智能的持續投資者樂觀情緒，以及高收入者的相關支出，這些支出得益於不斷增長的投資組合，幫助在 2025 年儘管就業增長几乎為零的情況下保持擴張。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices have eased somewhat amid a diplomatic push by the US to end the war with Iran, though Brent crude remains around US$100 a barrel. Even if the two sides can come to an agreement to end hostilities soon, forecasters caution it will take time for oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to ramp up. Damage to oil infrastructure in the region, combined with increased global demand as countries rebuild stockpiles after the conflict, will also sustain higher oil prices than before the war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美國正在通過外交努力推動結束與伊朗的戰爭，油價有所回落，但布倫特原油仍維持在每桶約 100 美元。即使雙方能夠儘快達成結束敵對行動的協議，預測者警告稱，霍爾木茲海峽的石油運輸恢復需要時間。該地區的石油基礎設施損壞，加上各國在衝突後重建庫存的全球需求增加，也將維持高於戰爭前的油價。</p>
</div><p>American consumers can already see the impact when buying petrol or plane tickets. But a growing fertiliser shortage created by the war is also set to push food prices up as the year goes on. Higher prices for diesel fuel, which have risen even faster than regular gas, will add to shipping costs, which could also eventually boost a whole range of prices for consumer goods that were already boosted by tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國消費者在購買汽油或機票時已經可以看到影響。但戰爭造成的日益嚴重的肥料短缺也將推動食品價格在年內上漲。柴油燃料價格的上漲速度甚至超過了普通汽油，這將增加運輸成本，最終可能推動一系列已經因關税而上漲的消費品價格。</p>
</div><p>“Everyone’s very concerned about how long it’s going to take before things are settled,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “Even if it does get settled today, it’s going to take some production. It’s going to take a long time to have things restart.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“每個人都非常擔心事情需要多長時間才能解決，” BMO 資本市場的高級經濟學家詹妮弗·李表示。“即使今天解決了，也需要一些生產。事情恢復需要很長時間。”</p>
</div><p>Many economists see less spending translating to less hiring, which means another year of meagre gains for employment after 2025 registered unprecedented low job growth so far into an economic expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多經濟學家認為，支出減少將轉化為招聘減少，這意味着在 2025 年經歷了前所未有的低就業增長後，2026 年將再次出現微薄的就業增長。</p>
</div><h2>Consumer impact</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>消費者影響</h2>
</div><p>Several Wall Street firms, including Citigroup, are forecasting a rise in the unemployment rate this year. That’s one reason why many are sticking with their calls that the US Federal Reserve will resume interest-rate cuts at some point in 2026, even as investors have rushed in recent days to bet on rate hikes instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括花旗集團在內的幾家華爾街公司預測今年失業率將上升。這是許多人堅持認為美國聯邦儲備將在 2026 年某個時候恢復降息的原因之一，儘管投資者最近幾天急於押注加息。</p>
</div><p>Slower job growth also could feed back into the outlook for consumer spending, said Gisela Young, an economist at Citi.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就業增長放緩也可能反過來影響消費者支出的前景，花旗經濟學家吉塞拉·楊表示。</p>
</div><p>“To the extent that job growth continues to slow further – it’s already on average sort of a zero – that could be another headwind to the consumer,” Young said, adding that Citi expects wage growth to step down again this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果就業增長繼續進一步放緩——目前平均幾乎為零——這可能會對消費者造成另一個逆風，” 楊表示，並補充説花旗預計今年工資增長將再次放緩。</p>
</div><p>Early signs of the impact are more mixed than the quickly souring outlook would suggest. Economists at JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America say weekly internal data on credit-card spending show little evidence of a slowdown as at mid-March, suggesting consumers have yet to start pulling back even as they pay more at the pump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早期跡象顯示的影響比迅速惡化的前景更為複雜。摩根大通和美國銀行的經濟學家表示，信用卡消費的每週內部數據在 3 月中旬顯示幾乎沒有放緩的跡象，這表明消費者在支付更多油費的情況下尚未開始縮減支出。</p>
</div><p>The University of Michigan will release final results from its monthly survey of consumer sentiment on Friday. Forecasters expect it to show a decline in March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, though not to the level seen in November, which marked the lowest reading in more than three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>密歇根大學將於週五發佈其每月消費者信心調查的最終結果。預測者預計根據彭博社調查的中位數估計，3 月份將顯示下降，但不會降至 11 月的水平，後者是三年多以來的最低讀數。</p>
</div><p>“The first two weeks of the conflict, you are not seeing anything really pronounced in terms of changes in consumer spending,” said Michael Feroli, the chief US economist at JPMorgan. But “I do think this takes a little bit of pep out of the expansion.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“衝突的前兩週，你並沒有看到消費者支出方面的明顯變化，” 摩根大通首席美國經濟學家邁克爾·費羅利表示。但 “我確實認為這會稍微削弱擴張的動力。” BLOOMBERG</p>
</div>

US recession risks begin to rise as war dims economic outlook

- 華爾街下調美國經濟預測，失業率和通脹預期上升。  
- 高盛預計未來 12 個月經濟下滑風險升至 30%。  
- 預測者警告油價高漲將影響消費者支出及招聘。

隨着戰爭使經濟前景黯淡，美國經濟衰退的風險開始上升