<p>伊朗的戰爭威脅到一個小但至關重要的複雜供應鏈部分，該供應鏈幫助生產全球的芯片，因為衝突限制了對世界上大量氦氣的獲取。</p>
<p>卡塔爾生產約三分之一的世界氦氣，這種氣體在半導體制造過程中至關重要，而此時芯片已成為人工智能背後的命脈。</p>
<p>但與伊朗的戰爭擾亂了卡塔爾的天然氣生產以及與之共同提取的氦氣，同時也使霍爾木茲海峽這一關鍵航運通道停滯不前。</p>
<p>聖地亞哥大學供應鏈管理教授西蒙·克魯姆表示：“你面臨兩個問題——一個是你沒有產出，另一個是物流和運輸中斷。”</p>
<p>他補充道：“這會加劇，因為供應鏈中的許多其他產品都經過中東，無論是霍爾木茲海峽還是蘇伊士運河。”</p>
<p>與伊朗的衝突已經持續了超過三週，對能源市場造成了特別大的干擾。</p>
<p>在 2 月底美國和以色列對伊朗的首次打擊後，德黑蘭通過襲擊中東各地的目標作出回應，包括天然氣和石油基礎設施。它還關閉了霍爾木茲海峽，這條水道連接波斯灣和印度洋，運輸約五分之一的世界石油。</p>
<p>這導致油價一度飆升至每桶超過 100 美元。但儘管人們對石油和天然氣市場的影響給予了很多關注，但同樣的因素也在擾亂氦氣的供應。</p>
<p>氦氣是與天然氣共同提取的。伊朗的襲擊針對了卡塔爾的天然氣廠，路透社報道該國的氦氣出口在最近一系列襲擊後預計將下降 14%。</p>
<p>它還面臨霍爾木茲海峽的瓶頸，自 3 月初以來，該海峽實際上已關閉，伊朗誓言攻擊任何試圖通過該通道的船隻。</p>
<p>氦氣是半導體制造的 “關鍵原料”，半導體行業協會在 2023 年對美國地質調查局關於氦氣供應風險的回應中指出。</p>
<p>它當時寫道：“氦氣作為惰性氣體和高熱導體的獨特性質使其在防止不必要的化學反應和確保晶圓温度控制與精度的功能中理想。”</p>
<p>喬治城安全與新興技術中心的高級研究分析師漢娜·多門解釋説，這種氣體可以在刻蝕和沉積等過程中幫助冷卻晶圓，此外還可以冷卻光刻光源。</p>
<p>刻蝕、沉積和光刻都是將晶圓轉變為芯片的複雜圖案創建過程中的不同步驟。氦氣還可以用於其他用途，例如檢測泄漏。</p>
<p>多門告訴《國會山》：“所有這些都是生產大家談論的前沿芯片的關鍵組成部分或過程。而韓國、台灣及其他領先的半導體廠商是氦氣或高純度氦氣的關鍵用户。”</p>
<p>儘管擔憂日益加劇，供應鏈服務公司 Circular Technology 的全球研究與市場情報負責人布拉德·加斯特維斯建議，目前的情況應被視為 “黃燈而非紅燈”。</p>
<p>加斯特維斯在上週的一份研究報告中寫道：“儘管當前的地緣政治形勢給氦氣市場帶來了波動，但半導體和人工智能基礎設施生態系統似乎並未面臨立即的運營中斷。”</p>
<p>他補充道：“長期合同、庫存緩衝、回收系統和替代生產地區的存在意味着行業可能能夠吸收短期的干擾。”</p>
<p>他強調，任何干擾的持續時間將是決定影響嚴重程度的關鍵。在早期階段，現貨氦氣價格預計會上漲，工業氣體供應商可能會收緊供應。</p>
<p>但如果幹擾持續超過幾周，生產半導體的設施可能會開始面臨 “運營限制或成本增加，” 加斯特維斯指出。</p>
<p>多門同樣表示：“看起來短缺可能還沒有像人們擔心的那樣嚴重。”</p>
<p>她補充道：“我認為，至少受影響的製造公司可能正在探索替代供應商，並考慮如何減輕當前和未來的任何干擾，尤其是如果戰爭持續超過幾周甚至幾個月。”</p>
<p>但她指出，尋找替代供應商並不是一種 “即插即用的解決方案”，因為芯片製造商需要特定純度水平的氦氣，而供應商必須經過資格認證過程。</p>
<p>多門表示：“未來一個問題可能是，這種首次干擾是否可能是一個警鐘，也許對政策制定者來説，或者是否會推動更多投資到其他地方的氦氣生產，或減少對單一供應商的依賴。”</p>
<p>芯片供應鏈的潛在後果並未被特朗普政府忽視，該政府將人工智能和與中國在技術上的競爭視為關鍵優先事項。</p>
<p>美國經濟事務副國務卿雅各布·赫爾伯格週一將霍爾木茲海峽發生的事件形容為 “一堂課”。</p>
<p>他説：“伊朗故意將全球經濟中的一個單一瓶頸武器化，通過一條狹窄的水道挾持世界。而這裏的教訓不僅僅是關於石油的，而是關於依賴性。”</p>
<p>“這關乎當文明的物理基礎設施、關鍵節點、走廊、電纜、港口，成為戰場時會發生什麼，” 赫爾伯格繼續説道。</p>
<p>“當一個政權計算出世界對這些基礎設施的需求超過了對其侵略後果的恐懼時，我們不會讓這種計算擴散到支撐我們整個經濟的技術和半導體供應鏈中，” 他補充道。</p>

廣發中證半導體材料設備ETF

動態半導體 ETF - Invesco

半導體 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>正在進行的伊朗戰爭正在擾亂氦氣供應，這對半導體制造至關重要，因為它限制了對卡塔爾氦氣生產的獲取。衝突已導致霍爾木茲海峽的天然氣生產和運輸暫停，可能導致氦氣出口下降 14%。雖然預計半導體行業不會出現立即的運營中斷，但對氦氣價格上漲和長期供應問題的擔憂依然存在。專家建議，企業正在探索替代供應商，但由於純度要求，尋找合適的替代品非常複雜</p>

<p>The war in Iran is threatening a small but crucial part of the complex supply chain that helps produce the world’s chips, as the conflict limits access to a large chunk of the world’s helium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的戰爭威脅到一個小但至關重要的複雜供應鏈部分，該供應鏈幫助生產全球的芯片，因為衝突限制了對世界上大量氦氣的獲取。</p>
</div><p>Qatar produces about a third of the world’s helium, a gas that is central to the semiconductor manufacturing process at a moment when chips have become increasingly crucial as the lifeblood behind AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡塔爾生產約三分之一的世界氦氣，這種氣體在半導體制造過程中至關重要，而此時芯片已成為人工智能背後的命脈。</p>
</div><p>But the war with Iran has disrupted Qatari natural gas production and the helium that is extracted alongside it, while also bringing a key shipping corridor to a halt through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但與伊朗的戰爭擾亂了卡塔爾的天然氣生產以及與之共同提取的氦氣，同時也使霍爾木茲海峽這一關鍵航運通道停滯不前。</p>
</div><p>“You’ve got two problems — you’ve got the problem that you’re not getting output, and the second problem is that you’re getting an interruption in the logistics and the shipping,” said Simon Croom, a professor of supply chain management at the University of San Diego.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聖地亞哥大學供應鏈管理教授西蒙·克魯姆表示：“你面臨兩個問題——一個是你沒有產出，另一個是物流和運輸中斷。”</p>
</div><p>“That compounds because so many other products in the supply chain pass through the Middle East, whether it’s the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充道：“這會加劇，因為供應鏈中的許多其他產品都經過中東，無論是霍爾木茲海峽還是蘇伊士運河。”</p>
</div><p>The conflict with Iran, which has now dragged on for more than three weeks, has proven particularly disruptive for energy markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與伊朗的衝突已經持續了超過三週，對能源市場造成了特別大的干擾。</p>
</div><p>Following the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, Tehran has responded by hitting targets throughout the Middle East, including gas and oil infrastructure. It has also closed the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and carries about a fifth of the world’s oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月底美國和以色列對伊朗的首次打擊後，德黑蘭通過襲擊中東各地的目標作出回應，包括天然氣和石油基礎設施。它還關閉了霍爾木茲海峽，這條水道連接波斯灣和印度洋，運輸約五分之一的世界石油。</p>
</div><p>This has sent oil prices surging to more than $100 a barrel at times. But while much attention has focused on reverberations through the oil and gas markets, the same factors are also disrupting the supply of helium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這導致油價一度飆升至每桶超過 100 美元。但儘管人們對石油和天然氣市場的影響給予了很多關注，但同樣的因素也在擾亂氦氣的供應。</p>
</div><p>Helium is extracted alongside natural gas. Iranian strikes have targeted Qatari natural gas plants, with Reuters reporting that the country’s helium exports are poised to fall 14 percent following a recent series of attacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>氦氣是與天然氣共同提取的。伊朗的襲擊針對了卡塔爾的天然氣廠，路透社報道該國的氦氣出口在最近一系列襲擊後預計將下降 14%。</p>
</div><p>It also faces a bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since early March, when Iran vowed to attack any vessels that attempted to travel through the corridor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它還面臨霍爾木茲海峽的瓶頸，自 3 月初以來，該海峽實際上已關閉，伊朗誓言攻擊任何試圖通過該通道的船隻。</p>
</div><p>Helium is a “critical input” for semiconductor manufacturing, the Semiconductor Industry Association noted in a 2023 response to the U.S. Geological Survey about helium supply risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>氦氣是半導體制造的 “關鍵原料”，半導體行業協會在 2023 年對美國地質調查局關於氦氣供應風險的回應中指出。</p>
</div><p>“Helium’s unique properties as an inert gas and a high thermal conductor make it ideal for use in functions that require preventing unwanted chemical reactions and ensuring control and precision of wafer temperatures,” it wrote at the time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它當時寫道：“氦氣作為惰性氣體和高熱導體的獨特性質使其在防止不必要的化學反應和確保晶圓温度控制與精度的功能中理想。”</p>
</div><p>The gas can be used to help cool wafers during processes such as etching and deposition, in addition to cooling lithography light sources, explained Hanna Dohmen, a senior research analyst at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>喬治城安全與新興技術中心的高級研究分析師漢娜·多門解釋説，這種氣體可以在刻蝕和沉積等過程中幫助冷卻晶圓，此外還可以冷卻光刻光源。</p>
</div><p>Etching, deposition and photolithography are all various steps in the process of creating the intricate patterns that turn the wafers into chips. Helium can also be used for other purposes, such as detecting leaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刻蝕、沉積和光刻都是將晶圓轉變為芯片的複雜圖案創建過程中的不同步驟。氦氣還可以用於其他用途，例如檢測泄漏。</p>
</div><p>“All of these are critical components or processes to producing those leading edge chips that everybody’s talking about,” Dohmen told The Hill. “And those companies in South Korea and Taiwan and other leading fabs are critical users of helium or high-purity helium.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多門告訴《國會山》：“所有這些都是生產大家談論的前沿芯片的關鍵組成部分或過程。而韓國、台灣及其他領先的半導體廠商是氦氣或高純度氦氣的關鍵用户。”</p>
</div><p>Despite growing concerns, Brad Gastwirth, global head of research and market intelligence for the supply chain services firm Circular Technology, suggested the current situation should be “viewed as a yellow flag rather than a red alert.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管擔憂日益加劇，供應鏈服務公司 Circular Technology 的全球研究與市場情報負責人布拉德·加斯特維斯建議，目前的情況應被視為 “黃燈而非紅燈”。</p>
</div><p>“While the current geopolitical situation has introduced volatility into helium markets, the semiconductor and AI infrastructure ecosystem does not appear to face immediate operational disruption,” Gastwirth wrote in a research note last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加斯特維斯在上週的一份研究報告中寫道：“儘管當前的地緣政治形勢給氦氣市場帶來了波動，但半導體和人工智能基礎設施生態系統似乎並未面臨立即的運營中斷。”</p>
</div><p>“The presence of long term contracts, inventory buffers, recycling systems, and alternative production regions means the industry can likely absorb short term disruptions,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充道：“長期合同、庫存緩衝、回收系統和替代生產地區的存在意味着行業可能能夠吸收短期的干擾。”</p>
</div><p>He underscored that the length of any disruption will be key in determining the severity of the impact. In the early stages, spot helium prices are expected to rise, and industrial gas suppliers would likely tighten supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他強調，任何干擾的持續時間將是決定影響嚴重程度的關鍵。在早期階段，現貨氦氣價格預計會上漲，工業氣體供應商可能會收緊供應。</p>
</div><p>But if the disruption continues beyond a few weeks, the facilities producing semiconductors could begin to face “operating constraints or cost increases,” Gastwirth noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果幹擾持續超過幾周，生產半導體的設施可能會開始面臨 “運營限制或成本增加，” 加斯特維斯指出。</p>
</div><p>Dohmen similarly suggested that “it appears that the shortage likely hasn’t yet hit as much as people have feared.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多門同樣表示：“看起來短缺可能還沒有像人們擔心的那樣嚴重。”</p>
</div><p>“I think, at the minimum, those impacted fabrication companies are likely exploring alternative suppliers and thinking about how to mitigate any of the disruptions now and also in the future, especially if the war does last longer than just a couple of weeks or even a couple of months,” she added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她補充道：“我認為，至少受影響的製造公司可能正在探索替代供應商，並考慮如何減輕當前和未來的任何干擾，尤其是如果戰爭持續超過幾周甚至幾個月。”</p>
</div><p>But she noted that finding alternative suppliers is not a “plug-and-play kind of solution,” given that chipmakers need helium at a particular level of purity and suppliers have to go through a qualification process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但她指出，尋找替代供應商並不是一種 “即插即用的解決方案”，因為芯片製造商需要特定純度水平的氦氣，而供應商必須經過資格認證過程。</p>
</div><p>“A question moving forward might be whether this sort of first disruption is potentially a wake-up call, maybe also for policymakers, or whether it drives more investment into helium production elsewhere or reducing dependencies from one specific supplier,” Dohmen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多門表示：“未來一個問題可能是，這種首次干擾是否可能是一個警鐘，也許對政策制定者來説，或者是否會推動更多投資到其他地方的氦氣生產，或減少對單一供應商的依賴。”</p>
</div><p>The potential fallout for chip supply chains is not going unnoticed by the Trump administration, which has made AI and competition with China over the technology key priorities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芯片供應鏈的潛在後果並未被特朗普政府忽視，該政府將人工智能和與中國在技術上的競爭視為關鍵優先事項。</p>
</div><p>Jacob Helberg, under secretary of State for economic affairs, on Monday described the events unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz as “a lesson.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國經濟事務副國務卿雅各布·赫爾伯格週一將霍爾木茲海峽發生的事件形容為 “一堂課”。</p>
</div><p>“Iran is deliberately weaponizing a single choke point in the global economy to hold the world hostage through a narrow corridor of water. And the lesson here is not only about oil, it’s about dependency,” he said at a media briefing ahead of the Hill and Valley Forum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他説：“伊朗故意將全球經濟中的一個單一瓶頸武器化，通過一條狹窄的水道挾持世界。而這裏的教訓不僅僅是關於石油的，而是關於依賴性。”</p>
</div><p>“It’s about what happens when the physical infrastructure of civilization, the choke points, the corridors, the cables, the ports, become the battlefield themselves,” Helberg continued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這關乎當文明的物理基礎設施、關鍵節點、走廊、電纜、港口，成為戰場時會發生什麼，” 赫爾伯格繼續説道。</p>
</div><p>“When a regime calculates that the world needs that infrastructure more than it fears the consequences of their aggression, we will not let that calculus to metastasize into the technology and semiconductor supply chains that underpin our entire economy,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“當一個政權計算出世界對這些基礎設施的需求超過了對其侵略後果的恐懼時，我們不會讓這種計算擴散到支撐我們整個經濟的技術和半導體供應鏈中，” 他補充道。</p>
</div>

伊朗戰爭導致氦氣供應中斷，威脅到芯片供應鏈