<p>伊朗戰爭引發的能源衝擊正在推動全球金融市場出現罕見的多資產同步崩潰。3 月份，股票、債券和黃金均出現下跌，傳統投資組合防禦幾乎完全失效，投資者面臨近年來最嚴重的風險厭惡困境。根據《金融時報》，追蹤發達市場和新興市場股票的 MSCI 世界指數在 3 月份下跌了約 9%。在美國股市，標普 500 指數連續第五週下跌，創下自 2022 年以來最長的連跌紀錄，而納斯達克 100 指數則進入了修正區間。同時，全球政府和企業債券的綜合指數下跌超過 3%，標誌着自 2022 年 9 月以來傳統 “60-40” 股票債券組合的最差月度表現。黃金本月也暴跌 15%，投資者被迫在流動性壓力下清算之前重倉的多頭頭寸。市場的核心恐懼在於滯漲風險。中東戰爭爆發後，能源價格的急劇上漲引發了對全球經濟放緩和通貨膨脹上升的擔憂，迫使全球各國央行重新考慮加息的可能性，這反過來又嚴重影響了三大資產類別：股票、債券和黃金。</p>
<p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923401_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923401_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>“沒有有效的應對措施”：三大資產承壓</strong></h2>
<p>此次拋售的罕見之處在於三大資產類別的同步下跌：股票、債券和黃金，使得多資產的多樣化投資策略幾乎失效。</p>
<p>在股市中，追蹤發達市場和新興市場股票的 MSCI 世界指數在 3 月份下跌了約 9%。在美國股市，標普 500 指數連續第五週下跌，創下自 2022 年以來最長的連跌紀錄，而納斯達克 100 指數則進入了修正區間。在債市中，10 年期美國國債收益率攀升至 4.48%，為自 7 月以來的最高水平，而 30 年期收益率接近 5%。歐洲債券收益率也達到了自衝突爆發以來的最高水平。債券拋售不僅反映了通脹預期的上升，也反映了市場對全球主要央行政策路徑的重新定價。黃金價格的崩潰更是出乎意料。黃金在過去兩年經歷了強勁的反彈，今年 1 月達到峯值，但此後暴跌 15%。法國巴黎銀行資產管理公司的多資產投資組合經理 Sophie Huynh 指出，投資者正在 “清算黃金等高收益資產” 以滿足流動性需求，因為他們 “無處可藏”。Tikehau Capital 的資本市場戰略負責人 Raphaël Thuin 直言不諱地表示：“對投資者有效的是什麼？沒有。這真的是你能想象的最糟糕的情況之一。過去幾周管理投資組合極其困難。” 特朗普的言論未能阻止市場的下跌，市場信心已經動搖。特朗普延長了對伊朗能源基礎設施攻擊的最後期限，但這一聲明未能平息投資者情緒。標普 500 指數在週五再次下跌 1.7%，延續了前一個交易日的跌勢（自衝突開始以來的最大單日跌幅），創下自去年關税爭端以來的最大兩日跌幅。瑞穗證券固定收益策略負責人 Jordan Rochester 表示，特朗普的延長 “並沒有解決霍爾木茲海峽封鎖的長期問題”，並且 “市場可能開始更少關注白宮的口頭壓力，而更多關注實際的能源短缺現實。” 美國國務卿 Marco Rubio 預測戰爭將在 “幾周內而不是幾個月內” 結束，但市場幾乎沒有反應。Instinet 的股票交易負責人 Larry Weiss 表示：“幾周前，這樣的消息會推動市場上漲，但今天沒有反應。沒有人知道接下來會發生什麼，大家對美國政府和伊朗的聲明都存在內在的不信任。” Federated Hermes 的股票副首席投資官 Steve Chiavarone 也指出：“特朗普之前通過言辭穩定了油市和債市，市場在等待衝突結束，但今天市場不再對此作出反應。” src=&#34;https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923408_image3.png&#34; type=&#34;block&#34;</p>
<h2><strong>防禦工具失效，多樣化邏輯面臨挑戰</strong></h2>
<p>這場危機不僅是市場的修正，也是對過去幾十年多資產多樣化投資框架的深刻考驗。</p>
<p>Tallbacken Capital Advisors 的創始人 Michael Purves 在一份報告中向客户解釋道：如果一位投資者在 2 月 27 日（衝突爆發前一天）具備完美的預見，並提前購買了債券、黃金、VIX 看漲期權和標普 500 保護性期權，那麼現在幾乎所有的頭寸都將面臨虧損。彭博情報的 ETF 分析師 Athanasios Psarofagis 的研究顯示，今年在股票下跌的交易日，債券和黃金同步上漲的概率僅約為 43%，而比特幣上漲的概率更低，僅約為 25%，這兩個數字都顯著低於十年前超過 60% 的水平。高盛的資產配置策略負責人 Christian Mueller-Glissmann 指出，在通脹衝擊的早期階段，“唯一有效的工具” 是押注於通脹或商品價格上漲的衍生品。他的團隊在衝突開始一週後增加了現金頭寸。最近的一項美銀基金經理調查顯示，自 COVID-19 大流行於 3 月開始以來，投資者以最快的速度注入現金。儘管當前局勢緊張，一些市場參與者認為這種情況的可持續性取決於衝突的發展。State Street Investment Management 的首席投資策略師 Michael Arone 表示，固定收益多樣化的失敗可能是暫時的。他的團隊最近減少了股票敞口，增加了債券持有，並預計一旦美伊緊張局勢開始緩解，通脹風險減輕，債券市場將恢復降息邏輯。然而，施羅德的 Mina Krishnan 警告説，市場環境已經發生了更深層次的結構性變化：“世界已經從需求側衝擊轉向供給側衝擊，舊的投資策略需要進行修訂。” 她的團隊在中東衝突爆發前已經通過信用違約掉期購買了保護，並持續持有這些頭寸。Tikehau Capital 的 Raphaël Thuin 直接指出核心矛盾：“傳統的避險資產概念正受到越來越多的挑戰。全球經濟和金融市場不斷演變的動態使這一敍述變得複雜。”</p>

易方達黃金礦-R

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

德銀貴金屬基金 - PowerShares

<p>全球金融市場因伊朗戰爭帶來的能源衝擊，正經歷罕見的股票、債券和黃金的同步崩潰。MSCI 世界指數在 3 月份下跌了約 9%，標普 500 指數創下自 2022 年以來最長的連跌紀錄。債券收益率急劇上升，黃金價格因投資者在流動性壓力下平倉而暴跌 15%。市場面臨滯脹的恐懼，各國央行正在重新考慮利率政策。這場危機對傳統的多資產分散投資策略提出了挑戰，使投資者幾乎沒有保護的選擇</p>

<p>The energy shock triggered by the Iran war is pushing global financial markets into a rare, simultaneous collapse across multiple assets. Stocks, bonds, and gold all fell in March, with traditional portfolio defenses failing almost entirely, leaving investors facing their most severe risk aversion dilemma in recent years. According to the Financial Times, the MSCI World Index, which tracks stocks in developed and emerging markets, fell by about 9% in March. In the US stock market, the S&amp;P 500 fell for the fifth consecutive week, marking its longest losing streak since 2022, while the Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory for the week. Meanwhile, the composite index of global government and corporate bonds fell by more than 3%, marking the worst monthly performance for the traditional &#34;60-40&#34; stock-bond portfolio since September 2022. Gold also plummeted 15% this month, as investors were forced to liquidate previously heavily bought long positions under liquidity pressure. The core fear in the market lies in the risk of stagflation. Following the outbreak of the Middle East wars, the sharp rise in energy prices has raised concerns about a global economic slowdown coupled with rising inflation, forcing central banks around the world to reconsider the possibility of raising interest rates, which in turn has severely impacted the three major asset classes: stocks, bonds, and gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗戰爭引發的能源衝擊正在推動全球金融市場出現罕見的多資產同步崩潰。3 月份，股票、債券和黃金均出現下跌，傳統投資組合防禦幾乎完全失效，投資者面臨近年來最嚴重的風險厭惡困境。根據《金融時報》，追蹤發達市場和新興市場股票的 MSCI 世界指數在 3 月份下跌了約 9%。在美國股市，標普 500 指數連續第五週下跌，創下自 2022 年以來最長的連跌紀錄，而納斯達克 100 指數則進入了修正區間。同時，全球政府和企業債券的綜合指數下跌超過 3%，標誌着自 2022 年 9 月以來傳統 “60-40” 股票債券組合的最差月度表現。黃金本月也暴跌 15%，投資者被迫在流動性壓力下清算之前重倉的多頭頭寸。市場的核心恐懼在於滯漲風險。中東戰爭爆發後，能源價格的急劇上漲引發了對全球經濟放緩和通貨膨脹上升的擔憂，迫使全球各國央行重新考慮加息的可能性，這反過來又嚴重影響了三大資產類別：股票、債券和黃金。</p>
</div><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7443445_image3.png"/></strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923401_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923401_image3.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>&#34;Nothing is effective&#34;: Three major assets under pressure</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>“沒有有效的應對措施”：三大資產承壓</strong></h2>
</div><p>The rarity of this round of sell-off lies in the simultaneous decline of three asset classes: stocks, bonds, and gold, rendering multi-asset diversification strategies almost ineffective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次拋售的罕見之處在於三大資產類別的同步下跌：股票、債券和黃金，使得多資產的多樣化投資策略幾乎失效。</p>
</div><p>In the stock market, the MSCI World Index, which tracks stocks from both developed and emerging markets, fell by about 9% in March. In the US stock market, the S&amp;P 500 fell for the fifth consecutive week, marking its longest losing streak since 2022, while the Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory for the week. In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed to 4.48%, its highest level since July, while the 30-year yield approached 5%. European bond yields also hit their highest levels since the outbreak of the conflict. The bond sell-off doesn't simply reflect rising inflation expectations; it also reflects the market's repricing of the policy paths of major central banks worldwide. The collapse in gold prices was even more unexpected. Gold had experienced a strong rally over the past two years, peaking in January of this year, but has since plummeted 15%. Sophie Huynh, multi-asset portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, pointed out that investors are &#34;liquidating high-yield assets like gold&#34; to meet liquidity needs because they have &#34;nowhere to hide.&#34; Raphaël Thuin, Head of Capital Markets Strategy at Tikehau Capital, bluntly stated: &#34;What works for investors? Nothing. This is truly one of the worst situations you can imagine. Managing portfolios has been extremely difficult over the past few weeks.&#34; Trump's statements failed to stop the bleeding, and market confidence has cracked. Trump extended the deadline for attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, but this statement failed to calm investor sentiment. The S&amp;P 500 fell another 1.7% on Friday, extending the previous trading day's decline (its worst single-day drop since the conflict began), marking the largest two-day drop since last year's tariff dispute. Jordan Rochester, head of fixed income strategy at Mizuho, ​​said that Trump's extension &#34;does not solve the long-standing problem of the Strait of Hormuz blockade,&#34; and &#34;the market may begin to focus less on the White House's verbal pressure and more on the reality of the on-the-ground energy shortage.&#34; US Secretary of State Marco Rubio predicted the war would end &#34;in weeks, not months,&#34; but the market barely reacted. Larry Weiss, head of equity trading at Instinet, said: &#34;A few weeks ago, such news would have driven the market up, but today there's been no reaction. Nobody knows what's going to happen next, and there's an inherent distrust of statements from both the US government and Iran.&#34; Steve Chiavarone, deputy chief investment officer for equities at Federated Hermes, also noted: &#34;Trump previously stabilized the oil and bond markets with his rhetoric, and the market was waiting for the conflict to end, but today the market is no longer responding to it.&#34; src=&#34;https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923408_image3.png&#34; type=&#34;block&#34;&gt;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股市中，追蹤發達市場和新興市場股票的 MSCI 世界指數在 3 月份下跌了約 9%。在美國股市，標普 500 指數連續第五週下跌，創下自 2022 年以來最長的連跌紀錄，而納斯達克 100 指數則進入了修正區間。在債市中，10 年期美國國債收益率攀升至 4.48%，為自 7 月以來的最高水平，而 30 年期收益率接近 5%。歐洲債券收益率也達到了自衝突爆發以來的最高水平。債券拋售不僅反映了通脹預期的上升，也反映了市場對全球主要央行政策路徑的重新定價。黃金價格的崩潰更是出乎意料。黃金在過去兩年經歷了強勁的反彈，今年 1 月達到峯值，但此後暴跌 15%。法國巴黎銀行資產管理公司的多資產投資組合經理 Sophie Huynh 指出，投資者正在 “清算黃金等高收益資產” 以滿足流動性需求，因為他們 “無處可藏”。Tikehau Capital 的資本市場戰略負責人 Raphaël Thuin 直言不諱地表示：“對投資者有效的是什麼？沒有。這真的是你能想象的最糟糕的情況之一。過去幾周管理投資組合極其困難。” 特朗普的言論未能阻止市場的下跌，市場信心已經動搖。特朗普延長了對伊朗能源基礎設施攻擊的最後期限，但這一聲明未能平息投資者情緒。標普 500 指數在週五再次下跌 1.7%，延續了前一個交易日的跌勢（自衝突開始以來的最大單日跌幅），創下自去年關税爭端以來的最大兩日跌幅。瑞穗證券固定收益策略負責人 Jordan Rochester 表示，特朗普的延長 “並沒有解決霍爾木茲海峽封鎖的長期問題”，並且 “市場可能開始更少關注白宮的口頭壓力，而更多關注實際的能源短缺現實。” 美國國務卿 Marco Rubio 預測戰爭將在 “幾周內而不是幾個月內” 結束，但市場幾乎沒有反應。Instinet 的股票交易負責人 Larry Weiss 表示：“幾周前，這樣的消息會推動市場上漲，但今天沒有反應。沒有人知道接下來會發生什麼，大家對美國政府和伊朗的聲明都存在內在的不信任。” Federated Hermes 的股票副首席投資官 Steve Chiavarone 也指出：“特朗普之前通過言辭穩定了油市和債市，市場在等待衝突結束，但今天市場不再對此作出反應。” src=&#34;https://img.jinse.com.cn/6923408_image3.png&#34; type=&#34;block&#34;</p>
</div><h2><strong>Defense tools fail, the logic of diversification faces challenges</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>防禦工具失效，多樣化邏輯面臨挑戰</strong></h2>
</div><p>This crisis is not only a market correction, but also a profound test of the multi-asset diversification investment framework of the past few decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這場危機不僅是市場的修正，也是對過去幾十年多資產多樣化投資框架的深刻考驗。</p>
</div><p>Michael Purves, founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, explained this in a report to clients: An investor who had a perfect foresight on February 27th (the day before the conflict broke out) and had bought bonds, gold, VIX call options, and S&amp;P 500 protective options beforehand would now be at a loss in almost all of their positions. Research by Athanasios Psarofagis, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, shows that this year, on trading days when stocks fall, the probability of bonds and gold rising in tandem is only about 43%, and the probability of Bitcoin rising is even lower at about 25%, both significantly lower than the more than 60% level of ten years ago. Goldman Sachs' head of asset allocation strategy, Christian Mueller-Glissmann, pointed out that in the early stages of an inflationary shock, the &#34;only tool that can work&#34; is derivatives betting on rising inflation or commodity prices. His team went overweight in cash a week after the conflict began. A recent Bank of America fund manager survey shows that investors poured cash in at the fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March. Despite the current tense situation, some market participants believe that the sustainability of this situation depends on the course of the conflict. Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management, stated that the failure of fixed-income diversification may be temporary. His team recently reduced its equity exposure and increased its bond holdings, and expects that once US-Iran tensions begin to ease and inflation risks subside, the bond market will return to a rate-cutting logic. However, Mina Krishnan of Schroders warns that the market environment has undergone a deeper structural shift: &#34;The world has shifted from demand-side shocks to supply-side shocks, and the old investment playbook needs to be revised.&#34; Her team had already purchased protection through credit default swaps before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and has continued to hold them. Raphaël Thuin of Tikehau Capital points directly to the core contradiction: &#34;The traditional concept of safe-haven assets is increasingly being challenged. The ever-evolving dynamics of the global economy and financial markets have complicated this narrative.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Tallbacken Capital Advisors 的創始人 Michael Purves 在一份報告中向客户解釋道：如果一位投資者在 2 月 27 日（衝突爆發前一天）具備完美的預見，並提前購買了債券、黃金、VIX 看漲期權和標普 500 保護性期權，那麼現在幾乎所有的頭寸都將面臨虧損。彭博情報的 ETF 分析師 Athanasios Psarofagis 的研究顯示，今年在股票下跌的交易日，債券和黃金同步上漲的概率僅約為 43%，而比特幣上漲的概率更低，僅約為 25%，這兩個數字都顯著低於十年前超過 60% 的水平。高盛的資產配置策略負責人 Christian Mueller-Glissmann 指出，在通脹衝擊的早期階段，“唯一有效的工具” 是押注於通脹或商品價格上漲的衍生品。他的團隊在衝突開始一週後增加了現金頭寸。最近的一項美銀基金經理調查顯示，自 COVID-19 大流行於 3 月開始以來，投資者以最快的速度注入現金。儘管當前局勢緊張，一些市場參與者認為這種情況的可持續性取決於衝突的發展。State Street Investment Management 的首席投資策略師 Michael Arone 表示，固定收益多樣化的失敗可能是暫時的。他的團隊最近減少了股票敞口，增加了債券持有，並預計一旦美伊緊張局勢開始緩解，通脹風險減輕，債券市場將恢復降息邏輯。然而，施羅德的 Mina Krishnan 警告説，市場環境已經發生了更深層次的結構性變化：“世界已經從需求側衝擊轉向供給側衝擊，舊的投資策略需要進行修訂。” 她的團隊在中東衝突爆發前已經通過信用違約掉期購買了保護，並持續持有這些頭寸。Tikehau Capital 的 Raphaël Thuin 直接指出核心矛盾：“傳統的避險資產概念正受到越來越多的挑戰。全球經濟和金融市場不斷演變的動態使這一敍述變得複雜。”</p>
</div>

Global stocks, bonds, and gold prices are all slashed: "This is the worst-case scenario; investors have nowhere to hide."

- 伊朗戰爭引發的能源衝擊使全球金融市場出現罕見的資產同步下跌。  
- MSCI 世界指數在 3 月下跌約 9%，美股 S&P 500 連續第五週下跌。  
- 投資者面臨流動性壓力，黃金價格本月暴跌 15%，多資產配置策略失效。

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全球股票、債券和黃金價格全面下跌：“這是最糟糕的情況；投資者無處可逃。”