<p>TradingKey - 阿里巴巴集團（BABA）主要以其電子商務平台而聞名，許多人稱阿里巴巴為 “中國的亞馬遜”，因為它擁有非常龐大的市場、強大的物流和技術能力。</p>
<p>目前，阿里巴巴的業務範圍更為廣泛，包括但不限於雲計算，阿里巴巴是全球最大的雲計算提供商之一；他們已經開始開發與人工智能相關的產品；並運營支付寶，作為他們的數字支付服務。</p>
<p>此外，他們還在不斷創造或投資新的消費應用和半導體設計。在過去五年中，阿里巴巴的每股價格上漲了 450%，這使得許多知名投資者（其中一些是在公司上市後下跌期間購買的）對阿里巴巴的未來前景持樂觀態度；儘管如此，他們中的許多人仍然保持謹慎。</p>
<h2>核心電子商務引擎的狀態</h2>
<p>儘管阿里巴巴的國內業務仍然是其核心，但公司繼續實現增長，2026 年第四季度（2025 年 12 月 31 日）的收入為 2848.43 億元人民幣，較去年同期的 2801.5 億元人民幣有所增長。</p>
<p>在 2848.43 億元中，阿里巴巴的國內業務收入同比增長 6%，達到 1593.47 億元人民幣，受益於用户基礎的增長和交易行為的改善。</p>
<p>淘寶的月活躍用户實現了兩位數的增長；88VIP 會員超過 5900 萬，也實現了兩位數的增長，瞬時零售板塊的收入為 208 億元人民幣，同比增長 56%。</p>
<p>物流效率、訂單組合和客户留存的改善，以及單位經濟學和平均交易價值的提升，表明公司的核心商業引擎繼續增強，而不僅僅依賴促銷來推動其商業業務的增長。</p>
<h2>雲計算和人工智能正在重塑阿里巴巴的增長邏輯</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴雲的增長勢頭驚人，目前是阿里巴巴集團中增長最快的業務板塊。</p>
<p>在上個季度，阿里巴巴雲的收入為 432.84 億元人民幣（64.37 億美元），較去年同期增長 36%。這一令人印象深刻的數字反映了對公共雲和人工智能產品的強勁需求。人工智能收入在過去十個季度中實現了三位數的同比增長，表明組織正在增加 IT 預算以資助試點項目，並在處理能力和運行多個大型模型的能力方面取得實際成果。</p>
<p>為了利用這一機會，阿里巴巴管理團隊正在實施一種新的商業模式，稱為 “服務模型”（Model as a Service，MaaS），以提供人工智能能力。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴的雲業務已從 “銷售計算” 轉變為 “銷售人工智能能力”。現在的重點是創建一個連續的商業鏈，包括對最大模型及其推理工作負載的訪問，以及對雲服務的訪問，以便產生更穩定和更大頻率的收入。</p>
<p>他們還在構建一個內部結構，稱為 “Token Hub”（或 “內部代幣開發中心”），以整合他們在貨幣化數字助手和基於大型模型的應用方面的努力，同時繼續開發他們用於構建人工智能能力的芯片和雲基礎設施。</p>
<p>將人工智能作為收入結構的一部分，而不是將其視為一個獨立的研發業務，代表了阿里巴巴作為公司的重大進步。</p>
<p>人工智能在消費和企業領域都已公開。</p>
<p>例如，3 億月活躍的千問用户，淘寶閃購系統現在允許購物者通過語音下達人工智能訂單。</p>
<p>千問應用在農曆市場期間的推出促成了在三個產品類別（購物、旅行和娛樂）之間完成 2 億個訂單，並提供了早期跡象，表明人工智能輔助購買正在形成習慣。</p>
<p>在企業方面，新成立的悟空部門旨在將人工智能融入流程，並將 MaaS 轉變為客户可量化的生產力。阿里巴巴的平頭哥硅芯片部門已將其內部 GPU 投入軟件層面的量產。</p>
<p>這些芯片支持機器學習、微調和推理，能夠與標準的人工智能框架協同工作，並且在與千問模型和阿里巴巴雲結合使用時，預計將提供高成本、高性能的整體人工智能服務，以增強雲基礎設施。</p>
<h2>大雄心，具體目標</h2>
<p>通過將人工智能戰略與具體的收入預期相結合，管理層提出，未來五年內，雲計算和人工智能的收入增長將超過 1000 億美元，MaaS 可能成為阿里巴巴雲最大的收入來源。</p>
<p>這使得人工智能討論更加清晰，將其背景從 “是否” 轉變為 “多快” 或 “在什麼盈利水平”。只要阿里巴巴繼續以超過 100% 的年增長率增長人工智能收入，同時通過內部芯片生產和公共雲利用來擴展人工智能基礎設施，那麼 MaaS 的需求增長將對公司的整體盈利能力產生積極影響。</p>
<p>如果人工智能服務的採用更加不穩定，或者由於競爭導致價格大幅下降，可能會更難維持這種利潤增長；因此，組織將不得不依賴其電子商務業務和在中國以外的改進來支持利潤增長。</p>
<h2>仍然籠罩在阿里巴巴股票上的風險</h2>
<p>投資者需要考慮全球政策和法規的類型。中國的政府結構仍然保留着過去幾年在技術監管發生突變時的相同權力；因此，2022 年美國存託憑證被撤回（未找到）的風險也相當顯著，但一些立法者正在試圖施加更多壓力於 SEC，研究退市的可能性，儘管近期市場情緒有所好轉，這種風險仍然存在。</p>
<p>查理·芒格曾是阿里巴巴的大投資者（其股票仍在交易中），但在意識到當時中國政治不穩定後改變了對投資的看法，幾乎賣掉了所有股份（導致他在 2023 年 11 月底之前成為淨賣家）。這些事件極大地促使投資者對阿里巴巴的投資權重更加謹慎。</p>
<h2>2026 年展望及需要實現的目標</h2>
<p>在 2026 年，阿里巴巴的股票是否會繼續上漲，取決於公司執行的能力和投資環境的狀態。</p>
<p>在考慮執行時，阿里巴巴需要繼續將對人工智能的興趣轉化為實際的合同工作量，同時在不同產業中擴大 MaaS 的採用率，並改善其商業部門的單位經濟效益。</p>
<p>在穩定性方面，較少的新監管意外和國際跨境資本渠道的持續重新開放將使阿里巴巴的股價更充分地反映其基本面。阿里巴巴的股票對新聞事件的敏感度仍然遠高於在更穩定司法管轄區的同行。</p>
<h2>現在應該購買阿里巴巴股票嗎？</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴正在從一個主要用於買賣商品的網站轉變為提供基於雲的服務和人工智能（AI）的公司。該公司打算利用其提供 AI 模型的能力進行貨幣化，而不僅僅是銷售用於這些 AI 模型的設備。</p>
<p>如果阿里巴巴的 MaaS 計劃成功，並且阿里巴巴能夠繼續增強其零售業務的基本經濟效益，那麼阿里巴巴股票的故事可能會從一個翻身股票的故事轉變為一個持久股票的故事。為了在電子商務領域取得成功，阿里巴巴必須實現其目標，並應對過去給投資者帶來問題的環境。</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

DTCR

阿里巴巴

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

IDGT

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

阿里巴巴-W

雲計算 ETF - GlobalX

XDAT

<p>阿里巴巴集團（BABA）以其電子商務平台而聞名，正在向雲計算和人工智能領域擴展，這些領域的增長顯著。在 2026 年第四季度，阿里巴巴報告的收入為 2848.43 億元人民幣，國內業務同比增長 6%。阿里雲的收入為 432.84 億元人民幣，同比增長 36%，這得益於對人工智能產品的強勁需求。該公司正在轉向服務模型（MaaS），目標是在未來五年內從雲計算和人工智能中實現超過 1000 億美元的收入，這表明其多元化業務的未來前景強勁</p>

<p>TradingKey - The Alibaba Group (BABA) is primarily known for its eCommerce platform and many refer to Alibaba as &#34;Amazon of China,&#34; considering its very large marketplace, strong logistics and technology capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 阿里巴巴集團（BABA）主要以其電子商務平台而聞名，許多人稱阿里巴巴為 “中國的亞馬遜”，因為它擁有非常龐大的市場、強大的物流和技術能力。</p>
</div><p>Currently, Alibaba has a much broader set of operations, including but not limited to the cloud, where it is one of the world's largest cloud computing providers; they've started developing AI-related products; and operate Alipay, their digital payment service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，阿里巴巴的業務範圍更為廣泛，包括但不限於雲計算，阿里巴巴是全球最大的雲計算提供商之一；他們已經開始開發與人工智能相關的產品；並運營支付寶，作為他們的數字支付服務。</p>
</div><p>In addition, they continue to create or invest in new consumer applications and semiconductor designs. Over the last five years, the price per share has increased by 450%, causing many well-known investors (some of whom purchased during the downturn after they went public) to look positively on the future prospects of Alibaba; though, many of them remain cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，他們還在不斷創造或投資新的消費應用和半導體設計。在過去五年中，阿里巴巴的每股價格上漲了 450%，這使得許多知名投資者（其中一些是在公司上市後下跌期間購買的）對阿里巴巴的未來前景持樂觀態度；儘管如此，他們中的許多人仍然保持謹慎。</p>
</div><h2>The State of the Core E‑commerce Engine</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>核心電子商務引擎的狀態</h2>
</div><p>While Alibaba’s domestic business remains at its core, the company continues to achieve growth, as evidenced by the company’s revenue of 284.843 billion yuan in the 4th quarter of 2026 (December 31, 2025), an increase from the company’s revenue of 280.15 billion yuan in the same period last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管阿里巴巴的國內業務仍然是其核心，但公司繼續實現增長，2026 年第四季度（2025 年 12 月 31 日）的收入為 2848.43 億元人民幣，較去年同期的 2801.5 億元人民幣有所增長。</p>
</div><p>Of the 284.843 billion yuan, the revenue of Alibaba’s domestic business grew 6% year over year to 159.347 billion yuan as it benefited from growth in its user base and an improvement in transaction behaviors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2848.43 億元中，阿里巴巴的國內業務收入同比增長 6%，達到 1593.47 億元人民幣，受益於用户基礎的增長和交易行為的改善。</p>
</div><p>Monthly active users on Taobao had a double-digit growth; 88VIP membership exceeded 59 million and had also seen double-digit growth, and the Instant Retail segment generated 20.8 billion yuan in revenue, representing a 56% year over year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淘寶的月活躍用户實現了兩位數的增長；88VIP 會員超過 5900 萬，也實現了兩位數的增長，瞬時零售板塊的收入為 208 億元人民幣，同比增長 56%。</p>
</div><p>The improvements resulting from efficiencies in logistics, order mix and customer retention from improved unit economics and average transaction values indicate that the company's core commerce engine continues to strengthen beyond simply relying on promotions to drive the growth of their commerce business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>物流效率、訂單組合和客户留存的改善，以及單位經濟學和平均交易價值的提升，表明公司的核心商業引擎繼續增強，而不僅僅依賴促銷來推動其商業業務的增長。</p>
</div><h2>Cloud and AI Are Rewriting Alibaba’s Growth Logic</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>雲計算和人工智能正在重塑阿里巴巴的增長邏輯</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba Cloud's growth has been phenomenal and is currently the fastest-growing business segment within Alibaba Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴雲的增長勢頭驚人，目前是阿里巴巴集團中增長最快的業務板塊。</p>
</div><p>In the last quarter, Alibaba Cloud generated 43.284 billion CNY ($6.437 billion), an increase of 36% over the same period last year. This impressive number reflects strong demand for both public cloud and AI products. AI revenues have experienced triple-digit growth year over year for ten consecutive quarters, signifying that organizations are increasing their IT budgets to fund pilot projects and developing actual outcomes in terms of the cost of processing power and the ability to run many large models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上個季度，阿里巴巴雲的收入為 432.84 億元人民幣（64.37 億美元），較去年同期增長 36%。這一令人印象深刻的數字反映了對公共雲和人工智能產品的強勁需求。人工智能收入在過去十個季度中實現了三位數的同比增長，表明組織正在增加 IT 預算以資助試點項目，並在處理能力和運行多個大型模型的能力方面取得實際成果。</p>
</div><p>To take advantage of this opportunity, the Alibaba management team is implementing a new business model called Model as a Service (MaaS) to deliver AI capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了利用這一機會，阿里巴巴管理團隊正在實施一種新的商業模式，稱為 “服務模型”（Model as a Service，MaaS），以提供人工智能能力。</p>
</div><p>Alibaba's cloud business has changed gears from &#34;selling compute&#34; to &#34;selling AI capabilities.&#34; The emphasis now is on creating one continuous commercial chain that includes access to the biggest models and their inference workloads, and access to cloud services so they can produce a more stable and larger frequency of revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴的雲業務已從 “銷售計算” 轉變為 “銷售人工智能能力”。現在的重點是創建一個連續的商業鏈，包括對最大模型及其推理工作負載的訪問，以及對雲服務的訪問，以便產生更穩定和更大頻率的收入。</p>
</div><p>They are also working on their own internal structure called &#34;Token Hub&#34; (or &#34;internally token development center&#34;) to group together their efforts for monetizing digital assistants and large model-based applications while also continuing the development of the chips and cloud infrastructure that they use to build value off of their AI capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們還在構建一個內部結構，稱為 “Token Hub”（或 “內部代幣開發中心”），以整合他們在貨幣化數字助手和基於大型模型的應用方面的努力，同時繼續開發他們用於構建人工智能能力的芯片和雲基礎設施。</p>
</div><p>Integrating AI as part of the revenue structure instead of treating it as a separate R&amp;D based business represents a big step in Alibaba's evolution as a company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將人工智能作為收入結構的一部分，而不是將其視為一個獨立的研發業務，代表了阿里巴巴作為公司的重大進步。</p>
</div><p>AI has gone public in both the consumer and enterprise sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能在消費和企業領域都已公開。</p>
</div><p>For example, 300 million monthly active Qianwen users, where the Taobao flash purchase system has now allowed shoppers to place AI orders through voice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，3 億月活躍的千問用户，淘寶閃購系統現在允許購物者通過語音下達人工智能訂單。</p>
</div><p>The launch of Qianwen on the launch of the Qianwen app during the lunar market period contributed to the completion of 200 million orders between three product categories (shopping, travel, and entertainment), and provided early indications that AI-assisted buying is becoming habit-forming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>千問應用在農曆市場期間的推出促成了在三個產品類別（購物、旅行和娛樂）之間完成 2 億個訂單，並提供了早期跡象，表明人工智能輔助購買正在形成習慣。</p>
</div><p>On the enterprise side, the new Wukong division has been created to incorporate AI into processes and change MaaS into quantifiable productivity for clients. The Alibaba Pingtouge silicon unit has moved its in-house GPUs into volume production at the software level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在企業方面，新成立的悟空部門旨在將人工智能融入流程，並將 MaaS 轉變為客户可量化的生產力。阿里巴巴的平頭哥硅芯片部門已將其內部 GPU 投入軟件層面的量產。</p>
</div><p>These chips support machine learning, fine-tuning, and inference, where the chips can work with standard AI frameworks, and—when used with the Qianwen model and Alibaba Cloud—are anticipated to provide high-cost, high-performance overall AI services to enhance the cloud infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些芯片支持機器學習、微調和推理，能夠與標準的人工智能框架協同工作，並且在與千問模型和阿里巴巴雲結合使用時，預計將提供高成本、高性能的整體人工智能服務，以增強雲基礎設施。</p>
</div><h2>Big Ambition, Specific Targets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大雄心，具體目標</h2>
</div><p>By linking the AI strategy with specifically defined revenue expectations, management is proposing that revenue growth from cloud and AI will surpass $100 billion over the next five years, with MaaS likely becoming Alibaba Cloud's biggest revenue-generating product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過將人工智能戰略與具體的收入預期相結合，管理層提出，未來五年內，雲計算和人工智能的收入增長將超過 1000 億美元，MaaS 可能成為阿里巴巴雲最大的收入來源。</p>
</div><p>This brings clarity to the AI discussion by changing its context from &#34;if&#34; to &#34;how quickly&#34; or &#34;at what level of profitability.&#34; As long as Alibaba continues to grow AI revenue at a rate greater than 100% year over year while scaling the AI infrastructure through in-house chip production and public cloud utilization, then revenue margins from increased req. of MaaS will be advantageous for the total profitability of the organization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得人工智能討論更加清晰，將其背景從 “是否” 轉變為 “多快” 或 “在什麼盈利水平”。只要阿里巴巴繼續以超過 100% 的年增長率增長人工智能收入，同時通過內部芯片生產和公共雲利用來擴展人工智能基礎設施，那麼 MaaS 的需求增長將對公司的整體盈利能力產生積極影響。</p>
</div><p>If adoption of AI services is more variable and/or if price reductions due to competition increase significantly, it may be harder to maintain that margin growth; therefore, the organization will have to rely on its e-commerce operations and improvements made outside of China to support margin growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果人工智能服務的採用更加不穩定，或者由於競爭導致價格大幅下降，可能會更難維持這種利潤增長；因此，組織將不得不依賴其電子商務業務和在中國以外的改進來支持利潤增長。</p>
</div><h2>Risks That Still Shadow Alibaba Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍然籠罩在阿里巴巴股票上的風險</h2>
</div><p>Investors need to take into account what type of global policy and regulations exist. China's governmental structure still has those same authorities in place from prior years when changes affecting technology regulation happened overnight; therefore, there was also significant risk that an American depository receipt could end up pulled (un-found) in 2022, But some lawmakers are trying to put more pressure on the SEC to study the possibility of delisting &amp; this still exists as a tail risk despite some recent good news on general market sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者需要考慮全球政策和法規的類型。中國的政府結構仍然保留着過去幾年在技術監管發生突變時的相同權力；因此，2022 年美國存託憑證被撤回（未找到）的風險也相當顯著，但一些立法者正在試圖施加更多壓力於 SEC，研究退市的可能性，儘管近期市場情緒有所好轉，這種風險仍然存在。</p>
</div><p>Charlie Munger was also once a large investor in Alibaba (shares of which continue to be traded) but changed his opinion about his investment after realizing how politically unstable China was at the time, selling off almost all of his shares (resulting in him being a net seller through the end of November 2023). These events contribute greatly to investors being more cautious about Alibaba as an investment weighting due to these factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查理·芒格曾是阿里巴巴的大投資者（其股票仍在交易中），但在意識到當時中國政治不穩定後改變了對投資的看法，幾乎賣掉了所有股份（導致他在 2023 年 11 月底之前成為淨賣家）。這些事件極大地促使投資者對阿里巴巴的投資權重更加謹慎。</p>
</div><h2>2026 Outlook and What Has to Go Right</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年展望及需要實現的目標</h2>
</div><p>In 2026, whether Alibaba shares will continue moving higher depends on both the company's ability to execute properly and the state of the investment environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年，阿里巴巴的股票是否會繼續上漲，取決於公司執行的能力和投資環境的狀態。</p>
</div><p>When considering execution, it is important for Alibaba to continue converting interest in AI into actual contracted workloads while expanding the adoption rate of MaaS across different industries, as well as improving the unit economics of its commerce unit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考慮執行時，阿里巴巴需要繼續將對人工智能的興趣轉化為實際的合同工作量，同時在不同產業中擴大 MaaS 的採用率，並改善其商業部門的單位經濟效益。</p>
</div><p>In terms of stability, fewer new regulatory surprises and a continued reopening of international cross-border capital channels would enable Alibaba's stock price to more fully reflect its underlying fundamentals. Alibaba's stock is still much more sensitive to news events than its peers in more stable jurisdictions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在穩定性方面，較少的新監管意外和國際跨境資本渠道的持續重新開放將使阿里巴巴的股價更充分地反映其基本面。阿里巴巴的股票對新聞事件的敏感度仍然遠高於在更穩定司法管轄區的同行。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Buy Alibaba Stock Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在應該購買阿里巴巴股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba is changing from being mainly a site for buying and selling things into a company providing cloud-based services and artificial intelligence (AI). The company intends to monetaneously leverage its ability to offer AI models as opposed to merely selling devices to use those AI models on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴正在從一個主要用於買賣商品的網站轉變為提供基於雲的服務和人工智能（AI）的公司。該公司打算利用其提供 AI 模型的能力進行貨幣化，而不僅僅是銷售用於這些 AI 模型的設備。</p>
</div><p>If Alibaba's Maturity as a Service (MaaS) plan is successful, and if Alibaba can continue to enhance the underlying economics of its retail business, the story of Alibaba's stock could transform from a story of being a turnaround stock to one of being a durable stock. For Alibaba to succeed as an e-commerce company, they have to achieve its goals and deal with an environment that has caused problems for investors in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果阿里巴巴的 MaaS 計劃成功，並且阿里巴巴能夠繼續增強其零售業務的基本經濟效益，那麼阿里巴巴股票的故事可能會從一個翻身股票的故事轉變為一個持久股票的故事。為了在電子商務領域取得成功，阿里巴巴必須實現其目標，並應對過去給投資者帶來問題的環境。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

Alibaba Stock: Can a Cloud-and-AI Pivot Turn Recovery Into Durability?

- 阿里巴巴近期營收達 2848.43 億元，因用户增長及交易行為改善。  
- 雲計算和人工智能領域的迅猛發展，使其收入預計未來五年超 1000 億美元。  
- 投資者需關注其執行能力與政策環境，以維持股價穩定。

阿里巴巴股票：雲計算和人工智能的轉型能否將復甦轉變為持久的增長？