<p>（轉載 3 月 27 日原定專欄，無變動）</p><p>——標普 500 指數連續第五週下跌，納斯達克和道瓊斯指數確認進入修正區間</p><p>——3 月份非農就業報告預計將顯示就業人數温和增長</p><p>——伊朗事態發展將左右資產走勢</p><p>——下週還將公佈零售銷售數據和耐克財報</p><p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf</p><p>紐約，3 月 27 日（路透社）——下週的美國就業報告領銜了新一輪經濟數據，股市投資者還將密切關注伊朗戰爭的進展，這場戰爭已進入第二個月。市場將繼續關注中東衝突對能源價格的影響，這場衝突已切斷了大量石油供應。美國原油（CLc1）今年迄今已上漲超過 70%，達到每桶約 100 美元，導致美國汽油價格飆升至每加侖約 4 美元的平均水平。這可能會擠壓消費者支出。</p><p>由於投資者擔心通貨膨脹，基準國債收益率躍升至去年夏天以來的最高水平，對股票估值造成了可能的壓力。</p><p>基準標普 500 指數（.SPX）已連續第五週下跌，自 2 月下旬美國與以色列對伊朗發動軍事打擊以來已下跌超過 7%。納斯達克綜合指數（.IXIC）和道瓊斯工業平均指數（.DJI）本週均確認進入修正區間，這兩個指數收盤較各自歷史高點下跌至少 10%。Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投資官 Jim Baird 表示，本週，關於危機可能降級的相互矛盾的跡象使資產價格大幅波動，未來幾天股市可能仍將 “受新聞驅動”。</p><p>Baird 表示：“任何關於與伊朗進行討論以及衝突停止的積極突破跡象，都將大大緩解投資者的擔憂並提振情緒。”“任何可能導致局勢變得更長、更拖延的跡象，都將對投資者情緒構成負面影響，並肯定會給市場帶來壓力。” 週二將迎來美國股市艱難的第一季度結束。除了伊朗衝突，對人工智能業務中斷的擔憂以及私人信貸市場的疲軟也令股市動盪。2026 年至今，標普 500 指數已下跌約 7%，此前連續三年實現了可觀的兩位數百分比增長。</p><p>D.A. Davidson 的聯合首席投資官兼投資管理研究總監 James Ragan 表示：“總體而言，存在很多不確定性。”“因此，隨着我們進入季度最後幾天，我認為市場情緒可能會略有回落。”</p><p>就業數據能否向好？根據路透截至週五的數據，3 月份的非農就業報告預計將顯示新增就業人數 55,000 人，失業率 4.4%。該報告定於 4 月 3 日公佈，屆時美國股市將因耶穌受難日而休市。</p><p>此前 2 月份的報告出人意料地疲軟，顯示就業人數減少 92,000 人。鑑於過去三個月報告中有兩個月出現了就業負增長，“任何積極的數字可能對市場都是好消息，” Ragan 説。</p><p>2 月份的零售銷售數據以及製造業和服務業活動報告也將在下週公佈。</p><p>對勞動力市場惡化的擔憂曾促使美聯儲去年降息。但如果出現更嚴重的就業擔憂，美國央行將面臨困境。通脹已經高於美聯儲的目標，因此飆升的能源價格阻礙了進一步降息。目前，市場已消化了今年不再降息的預期，根據路透截至週五的數據，聯邦基金期貨甚至定價了 2026 年加息的温和可能性。</p><h3>收益率上升，估值下降</h3><p>與此同時，基準 10 年期國債收益率（US10YT=RR）已從戰爭開始前的約 4% 上升至 4.4% 以上。</p><p>DWS 美洲首席投資官 David Bianco 表示：“股市也正在非常仔細地關注” 收益率的上漲。“這影響到許多方面，” 他説道，包括抵押貸款、美國政府的債務可持續性以及什麼是合理的市盈率估值。</p><p>事實上，近幾周市場估值已有所緩和。根據 LSEG Datastream 的數據，標普 500 指數基於未來 12 個月盈利預期的市盈率 last below 20，低於年初的 22 以上。該市盈率仍遠高於其 16 的長期平均水平。</p><p>投資者正試圖瞭解戰爭及其導致的能源價格飆升對企業利潤的影響。面對更高的燃料和其他成本，達美航空（DAL.N）和聯邦快遞（FDX.N）等公司近期公佈的報告令投資者感到鼓舞。Nike（NKE.N）將於週二公佈季度業績，而大部分第一季度業績將在幾周後公佈。</p><p>Bianco 表示：“我認為美國經濟仍然遠離衰退。”“我們可以爭論油價上漲會增加衰退的可能性，但我仍然認為我們遠離可能發生衰退的距離還很遠。”</p>

標普 500 指數

納斯達克綜合指數

<p>(Repeats SCHEDULED COLUMN originally published on March 27, no changes)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（轉載 3 月 27 日原定專欄，無變動）</p></div><ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500 falls for 5th straight week, Nasdaq, Dow confirm corrections</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——標普 500 指數連續第五週下跌，納斯達克和道瓊斯指數確認進入修正區間</p></div><ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls for March expected to show modest jobs rise</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——3 月份非農就業報告預計將顯示就業人數温和增長</p></div><ul>
<li>Iran developments set to sway assets</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——伊朗事態發展將左右資產走勢</p></div><ul>
<li>Retail sales, Nike earnings also due in coming week</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——下週還將公佈零售銷售數據和耐克財報</p></div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf</p></div><p>NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) - Next week’s U.S. employment report headlines a fresh batch of economic data for stock investors, who also will closely follow developments in an Iran war that is entering its second month. Markets will continue to fixate on the fallout for energy prices from the Middle East conflict, which has choked off a big chunk of oil supplies. U.S. crude (CLc1) is up more than 70% year-to-date to about $100 a barrel, leading U.S. gasoline prices to surge to an average of about $4 a gallon. This could squeeze consumer spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約，3 月 27 日（路透社）——下週的美國就業報告領銜了新一輪經濟數據，股市投資者還將密切關注伊朗戰爭的進展，這場戰爭已進入第二個月。市場將繼續關注中東衝突對能源價格的影響，這場衝突已切斷了大量石油供應。美國原油（CLc1）今年迄今已上漲超過 70%，達到每桶約 100 美元，導致美國汽油價格飆升至每加侖約 4 美元的平均水平。這可能會擠壓消費者支出。</p></div><p>As investors worried about inflation, benchmark Treasury yields jumped to their highest since last summer, creating a possible pressure point on equity valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於投資者擔心通貨膨脹，基準國債收益率躍升至去年夏天以來的最高水平，對股票估值造成了可能的壓力。</p></div><p>The benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) fell for a fifth straight week and is down more than 7% since the U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran in late February. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) both this week confirmed they were in corrections, with those indexes ending down at least 10% from their respective all-time highs. During the week, conflicting indications of potential de-escalation of the crisis whipsawed asset prices, and stocks were likely to remain “headline-driven” in the coming days, said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基準標普 500 指數（.SPX）已連續第五週下跌，自 2 月下旬美國與以色列對伊朗發動軍事打擊以來已下跌超過 7%。納斯達克綜合指數（.IXIC）和道瓊斯工業平均指數（.DJI）本週均確認進入修正區間，這兩個指數收盤較各自歷史高點下跌至少 10%。Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投資官 Jim Baird 表示，本週，關於危機可能降級的相互矛盾的跡象使資產價格大幅波動，未來幾天股市可能仍將 “受新聞驅動”。</p></div><p>“Any signs of positive breakthroughs in terms of discussions with Iran and a cessation of the conflict there would go a long way towards providing some reassurance to investors and a boost in sentiment,” Baird said. “Anything that would lead to indications that this might become more long and drawn out, that would be a negative for investor sentiment and certainly would weigh on the market.” Tuesday brings an end to a rough first-quarter for U.S. equities. On top of the Iran conflict, concerns about business disruptions from artificial intelligence and weakness in the private credit market also have rattled stocks. The S&amp;P 500 is down about 7% so far in 2026, following three straight years of solid double-digit percentage gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Baird 表示：“任何關於與伊朗進行討論以及衝突停止的積極突破跡象，都將大大緩解投資者的擔憂並提振情緒。”“任何可能導致局勢變得更長、更拖延的跡象，都將對投資者情緒構成負面影響，並肯定會給市場帶來壓力。” 週二將迎來美國股市艱難的第一季度結束。除了伊朗衝突，對人工智能業務中斷的擔憂以及私人信貸市場的疲軟也令股市動盪。2026 年至今，標普 500 指數已下跌約 7%，此前連續三年實現了可觀的兩位數百分比增長。</p></div><p>“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there overall,” said James Ragan, co-CIO and director of investment management research at D.A. Davidson. “So as we get into the last couple of days of the quarter, I just think you could see the market sentiment kind of rolling over a little bit.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>D.A. Davidson 的聯合首席投資官兼投資管理研究總監 James Ragan 表示：“總體而言，存在很多不確定性。”“因此，隨着我們進入季度最後幾天，我認為市場情緒可能會略有回落。”</p></div><p>A POSITIVE JOBS NUMBER? The payrolls report for March is expected to show an estimated increase of 55,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, according to Reuters data as of Friday. The report is due on April 3, when U.S. stock markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就業數據能否向好？根據路透截至週五的數據，3 月份的非農就業報告預計將顯示新增就業人數 55,000 人，失業率 4.4%。該報告定於 4 月 3 日公佈，屆時美國股市將因耶穌受難日而休市。</p></div><p>The prior report for February was surprisingly weak, showing a decline of 92,000 jobs. Given that two of the past three monthly reports yielded negative job growth, “any positive number would probably be good for the market,” Ragan said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此前 2 月份的報告出人意料地疲軟，顯示就業人數減少 92,000 人。鑑於過去三個月報告中有兩個月出現了就業負增長，“任何積極的數字可能對市場都是好消息，” Ragan 説。</p></div><p>Retail sales data for February and reports on manufacturing and services activity are also due next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月份的零售銷售數據以及製造業和服務業活動報告也將在下週公佈。</p></div><p>Worries about a deteriorating labor market prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates last year. But the U.S. central bank will face a bind if more severe employment concerns arise. Inflation was already above the Fed’s target, so surging energy prices present an obstacle to further rate cuts. Now, markets are factoring in no more rate cuts for this year, with fed funds futures actually pricing in a modest chance of a hike in 2026, according to LSEG data as of Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對勞動力市場惡化的擔憂曾促使美聯儲去年降息。但如果出現更嚴重的就業擔憂，美國央行將面臨困境。通脹已經高於美聯儲的目標，因此飆升的能源價格阻礙了進一步降息。目前，市場已消化了今年不再降息的預期，根據路透截至週五的數據，聯邦基金期貨甚至定價了 2026 年加息的温和可能性。</p></div><h3>RISING YIELDS, FALLING VALUATIONS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>收益率上升，估值下降</h3></div><p>Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (US10YT=RR) has climbed to over 4.4% from about 4% before the war started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，基準 10 年期國債收益率（US10YT=RR）已從戰爭開始前的約 4% 上升至 4.4% 以上。</p></div><p>“The equity market is also taking very careful notice” of the rise in yields, said David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer at DWS. “This affects so many things,” he said, including mortgages, the debt sustainability of the U.S. government and what is a fair price-to-earnings valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DWS 美洲首席投資官 David Bianco 表示：“股市也正在非常仔細地關注” 收益率的上漲。“這影響到許多方面，” 他説道，包括抵押貸款、美國政府的債務可持續性以及什麼是合理的市盈率估值。</p></div><p>Indeed, the market’s valuation has moderated in recent weeks. The S&amp;P 500’s P/E ratio, based on earnings estimates for the next 12 months, was last below 20, down from over 22 at the start of the year, according to LSEG Datastream. That P/E ratio remains well above its long-term average of 16.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，近幾周市場估值已有所緩和。根據 LSEG Datastream 的數據，標普 500 指數基於未來 12 個月盈利預期的市盈率 last below 20，低於年初的 22 以上。該市盈率仍遠高於其 16 的長期平均水平。</p></div><p>Investors are seeking to understand implications for corporate profits from the war and the resulting surge in energy prices. In the face of higher fuel and other costs, companies such as Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) and FedEx (FDX.N) recently had reports that encouraged investors. Nike (NKE.N) will post quarterly results on Tuesday, while the bulk of first-quarter results are a couple of weeks away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者正試圖瞭解戰爭及其導致的能源價格飆升對企業利潤的影響。面對更高的燃料和其他成本，達美航空（DAL.N）和聯邦快遞（FDX.N）等公司近期公佈的報告令投資者感到鼓舞。Nike（NKE.N）將於週二公佈季度業績，而大部分第一季度業績將在幾周後公佈。</p></div><p>“I think the U.S. economy remains a safe distance from recession,” Bianco said. “We can debate the odds of recession going up as oil prices go up, but I still think we are a safe distance from a recession being likely.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bianco 表示：“我認為美國經濟仍然遠離衰退。”“我們可以爭論油價上漲會增加衰退的可能性，但我仍然認為我們遠離可能發生衰退的距離還很遠。”</p></div>

Wall St Week Ahead-US jobs data to give economic view for war-gripped markets

- 美國股市在伊朗戰爭背景下持續下跌，標普 500 指數連跌五週。  
- 三月非農就業報告預示新增 5.5 萬個職位，失業率預計在 4.4%。  
- 債券收益率上升影響市場估值，投資者關注企業利潤前景。

Reuters

道瓊斯指數

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

納指 100 ETF - Invesco

納斯達克 100 指數

美國大盤成長股 ETF - Charles Schwab

納斯達克綜合指數 ETF - Fidelity

2 倍做多道指 ETF - ProShares

Avantis US Large Cap Value ETF

道瓊斯工業平均分紅 ETF - Invesco

標普 500 指數股票型基金

3 倍做多道指 30 ETF - ProShares

納斯達克 100 平均加權指數 ETF - First Trust

做空標普 500 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做多標普 500 ETF - ProShares

全美價值股指數 ETF - Vanguard

超大盤股成長 ETF - Vanguard

標普 500 ETF - iShares

納斯達克 100 指數 ETF - Invesco

華爾街本週前瞻：美國就業數據將為受戰爭影響的市場提供經濟前景