<p>如果你擁有 401(k) 或個人退休賬户（IRA），你可能直接或通過共同基金或交易所交易基金（ETF）持有一些 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 1.45%）的股票。因此，幾乎每個人都有理由關注蘋果的表現，因為其不佳的表現可能會讓你損失金錢。</p><p>那麼，讓我們探討一下為什麼蘋果可能會表現不如其大型科技同行，以及投資者可以如何做好準備。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/7781f732ba6a797c20a0a7ada63cc3c7?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="1200" height="800" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/7781f732ba6a797c20a0a7ada63cc3c7"/></figure><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p><h2 id="uyidp76fe">對蘋果地位的威脅</h2><p>首先，我們必須討論即將來臨的風暴雲。簡而言之，蘋果面臨三個主要挑戰：</p><ul><li>一款老化的標誌性產品</li><li>競爭加劇</li><li>全球監管、供應和貿易阻力</li></ul><p>展開</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0053296b4c38aea2f1f918001402361f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="蘋果股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0053296b4c38aea2f1f918001402361f"/></figure><h2 id="skqul869p">NASDAQ: AAPL</h2><p>蘋果</p><p>今日變動</p><p>(-1.45%) $-3.66</p><p>當前價格</p><p>$249.23</p><h3 id="ay2fx332h">關鍵數據點</h3><p>市值</p><p>$3.7 萬億</p><p>日內區間</p><p>$248.08 - $255.45</p><p>52 周區間</p><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p><p>成交量</p><p>290 萬</p><p>平均成交量</p><p>4700 萬</p><p>毛利率</p><p>47.33%</p><p>股息收益率</p><p>0.42%</p><p>讓我們先從其老化的標誌性產品——iPhone 開始。明年將是 iPhone 發佈 20 週年。當它推出時，iPhone 是革命性的。但 20 年後，每一代 iPhone 都不如前一代吸引人。簡單來説，iPhone 市場已經飽和。公司現在越來越依賴提價來實現增長。由於 iPhone 仍佔蘋果約 50% 的收入，這一點至關重要。</p><p>然後是競爭。雖然蘋果在美國市場仍然是王者，市場份額約為 60%，但在中國情況就不同了。在那裏，蘋果的市場份額約為 25%，而 <strong>華為</strong>、<strong>Vivo</strong> 和 <strong>小米</strong> 等競爭對手分割了剩餘的市場。如果蘋果在中國的市場份額惡化，可能會給蘋果股票帶來麻煩。</p><p>最後是監管和貿易風險。蘋果最大的亮點是其高利潤的服務部門，包括其 App Store。然而，全球監管機構已將目光鎖定在 App Store 上，威脅到蘋果最好的催化劑。歐洲監管機構已迫使蘋果允許其他應用商店在其設備上運營；美國司法部正在以反壟斷理由起訴蘋果。</p><p>更重要的是，蘋果的供應鏈面臨的整體威脅以及關税帶來的風險。蘋果擁有龐大的海外製造設施和供應商，如果與中國的貿易戰持續升温，可能會成為受害者。</p><h2 id="y8cuiih5k">蘋果股票的變化性質</h2><p>這並不意味着 蘋果的股票 會崩盤。然而，投資者可能需要重新調整他們的預期。蘋果作為領先的成長股的時代已經過去。它現在正在轉型為_價值_股，儘管它仍然以_成長_股的價格進行交易。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f5c87074a26d20a558cb0d7e5ec945e5?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="AAPL 市盈率圖表" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f5c87074a26d20a558cb0d7e5ec945e5"/></figure><p>AAPL 市盈率 數據來自 YCharts</p><p>以蘋果的 市盈率（P/E） 為例。蘋果的市盈率為 31。這遠高於其 10 年平均值 25，儘管公司的 稀釋每股收益（EPS） 在過去十年中平均增長約 16%。同樣，蘋果的收入增長在過去 10 年中徘徊在 7% 左右，儘管在最近幾個季度有所上升——主要是由於服務和 關税推動的 iPhone 搶購。</p><p>再説一次，這些數字並不是災難性的，但它們表明這是一家在 大型科技股 中落後的公司——在這裏，由於人工智能（AI）應用的興起，高增長率和豐厚的利潤率已成為常態。</p><h2 id="1v8jrsjjm">如何保護自己</h2><p>那麼，投資者該怎麼辦？</p><p>投資者的一條前進道路是逐步將部分資金從蘋果重新部署到其他更具創新性的 “七大奇蹟” 股票中。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 目前的收入增長為 24%；<strong>Alphabet</strong> 在最近一個季度的稀釋每股收益增長為 30%。此外，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 憑藉其一流的 AI 芯片，不僅是新的硬件股票之王——它還是全球市值最大的公司，去年超越了蘋果。所有這些公司都將從 AI 驅動的創新中受益匪淺。</p><p>對於其他投資者來説，最好是完全將資金從七大奇蹟中重新部署——也許通過削減蘋果的持倉並增加一些 <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong>，或者像 <strong>消費品選擇行業 SPDR 基金</strong> 這樣的防禦性投資。</p><p>無論如何，持有大量蘋果股票的投資者不必驚慌。該股票並不處於即將崩潰的邊緣。然而，我確實認為蘋果在未來幾年面臨嚴重挑戰——這就是為什麼投資者應該為蘋果在未來四年成為表現最差的七大奇蹟股票做好準備。</p>

AAPX

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

<p>預計到 2030 年，蘋果將成為 “七大巨頭” 中表現最差的股票，這主要是由於對老化 iPhone 的依賴、競爭加劇以及全球監管挑戰。iPhone 約佔其收入的 50%，市場飽和以及來自華為等品牌的競爭威脅其市場地位，尤其是在中國。對其 App Store 的監管審查和供應鏈風險進一步複雜化了其前景。建議投資者考慮將資金重新分配到更具創新性的股票或 ETF，因為蘋果正從成長型股票轉向價值型股票</p>

<p>If you have a 401(k) or an individual retirement account (IRA), you probably own some <strong>Apple</strong>( AAPL 1.45%) stock -- either directly or through ownership of a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF). Therefore, just about everyone has a reason to be concerned about Apple's performance, because its poor performance could cost you money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你擁有 401(k) 或個人退休賬户（IRA），你可能直接或通過共同基金或交易所交易基金（ETF）持有一些 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 1.45%）的股票。因此，幾乎每個人都有理由關注蘋果的表現，因為其不佳的表現可能會讓你損失金錢。</p>
</div><p>So, let's explore why Apple is poised to underperform its big tech peers and what investors can do to prepare themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，讓我們探討一下為什麼蘋果可能會表現不如其大型科技同行，以及投資者可以如何做好準備。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NjE1MzcvYXBwbGUtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi1pcGhvbmUtb24tYmxhY2stYmFjZ3JvdW5kLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="The Apple logo in front of a hand holding an iPhone on a black background." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F861537%2Fapple-logo-in-front-of-iphone-on-black-bacground.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>The threats to Apple's standing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對蘋果地位的威脅</h2>
</div><p>First, we must cover the storm clouds on the horizon. In a nutshell, Apple is facing three key challenges:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，我們必須討論即將來臨的風暴雲。簡而言之，蘋果面臨三個主要挑戰：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>An aging signature product</li>
<li>Increasing competition</li>
<li>Global regulatory, supply, and trade headwinds</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>一款老化的標誌性產品</li>
<li>競爭加劇</li>
<li>全球監管、供應和貿易阻力</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FBUEwucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Apple Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAAPL.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AAPL</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AAPL</h2>
</div><p>Apple</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(-1.45%) $-3.66</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-1.45%) $-3.66</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$249.23</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$249.23</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$3.7T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$3.7 萬億</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$248.08 - $255.45</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$248.08 - $255.45</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$169.21 - $288.62</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>290 萬</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>47M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4700 萬</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>47.33%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>47.33%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.42%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.42%</p>
</div><p>Let's start with its aging signature product: the iPhone. Next year will mark the 20th anniversary of the iPhone. When it was launched, the iPhone was revolutionary. But 20 years on, each successive iPhone is less compelling than the last. Simply put, the iPhone market is saturated. The company now increasingly relies on price hikes for growth. And since iPhones still account for about 50% of Apple's revenue, that matters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們先從其老化的標誌性產品——iPhone 開始。明年將是 iPhone 發佈 20 週年。當它推出時，iPhone 是革命性的。但 20 年後，每一代 iPhone 都不如前一代吸引人。簡單來説，iPhone 市場已經飽和。公司現在越來越依賴提價來實現增長。由於 iPhone 仍佔蘋果約 50% 的收入，這一點至關重要。</p>
</div><p>Then there's the competition. While Apple is still king of the U.S. market, with approximately 60% market share, China is another story. There, Apple holds about 25% market share, with competitors like Huawei, <strong>Vivo</strong>, and <strong>Xiaomi</strong> splitting much of the remaining market. If Apple's market share in China were to deteriorate, it could spell trouble for Apple stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後是競爭。雖然蘋果在美國市場仍然是王者，市場份額約為 60%，但在中國情況就不同了。在那裏，蘋果的市場份額約為 25%，而 <strong>華為</strong>、<strong>Vivo</strong> 和 <strong>小米</strong> 等競爭對手分割了剩餘的市場。如果蘋果在中國的市場份額惡化，可能會給蘋果股票帶來麻煩。</p>
</div><p>Last, there are the regulatory and trade risks. Apple's biggest bright spot is its high-margin services segment, which includes its App Store. However, global regulators have zeroed in on the App Store, threatening to derail Apple's best catalyst. European regulators have forced Apple to allow alternative app stores to operate on its devices; the U.S. Department of Justice is suing Apple on antitrust grounds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後是監管和貿易風險。蘋果最大的亮點是其高利潤的服務部門，包括其 App Store。然而，全球監管機構已將目光鎖定在 App Store 上，威脅到蘋果最好的催化劑。歐洲監管機構已迫使蘋果允許其他應用商店在其設備上運營；美國司法部正在以反壟斷理由起訴蘋果。</p>
</div><p>What's more, there are the overarching threats to Apple's supply chain and the perils caused by tariffs. Apple, with massive offshore manufacturing facilities and suppliers, could become a casualty if the simmering trade war with China were to boil over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，蘋果的供應鏈面臨的整體威脅以及關税帶來的風險。蘋果擁有龐大的海外製造設施和供應商，如果與中國的貿易戰持續升温，可能會成為受害者。</p>
</div><h2>The changing nature of Apple stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果股票的變化性質</h2>
</div><p>None of this means Apple's stock is going to fall off a cliff. However, investors may need to recalibrate their expectations. Gone are the days when Apple was a leading growth stock. It's now transitioning to a <em>value</em> stock, although it is still priced like a <em>growth</em> stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不意味着 蘋果的股票 會崩盤。然而，投資者可能需要重新調整他們的預期。蘋果作為領先的成長股的時代已經過去。它現在正在轉型為_價值_股，儘管它仍然以_成長_股的價格進行交易。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率 數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Take Apple's price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, for example. Apple's P/E ratio stands at 31. That's well above its 10-year average of 25, even though the company's diluted earnings-per-share (EPS) growth has averaged about 16% over the last decade. Similarly, Apple's revenue growth has hovered around 7% for 10 years, even though it ticked up in recent quarters -- mainly due to services and tariff-fueled iPhone panic-buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以蘋果的 市盈率（P/E） 為例。蘋果的市盈率為 31。這遠高於其 10 年平均值 25，儘管公司的 稀釋每股收益（EPS） 在過去十年中平均增長約 16%。同樣，蘋果的收入增長在過去 10 年中徘徊在 7% 左右，儘管在最近幾個季度有所上升——主要是由於服務和 關税推動的 iPhone 搶購。</p>
</div><p>Again, these figures aren't catastrophic, but they are indicative of a company that is falling behind in the world of big tech stocks -- where high growth rates and fat margins are the norm thanks to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再説一次，這些數字並不是災難性的，但它們表明這是一家在 大型科技股 中落後的公司——在這裏，由於人工智能（AI）應用的興起，高增長率和豐厚的利潤率已成為常態。</p>
</div><h2>How to protect yourself</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如何保護自己</h2>
</div><p>So, what's an investor to do?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，投資者該怎麼辦？</p>
</div><p>One path forward for investors is to slowly redeploy some capital from Apple into other, more innovative &#34; Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks. <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> currently boasts revenue growth of 24%; <strong>Alphabet</strong> has grown diluted EPS at 30% in its most recent quarter. Moreover, <strong>Nvidia</strong>, with its best-in-class AI chips, is not only the new hardware stock king -- it's also the world's largest company by market cap, having unseated Apple last year. All of these companies stand to benefit immensely from AI-led innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者的一條前進道路是逐步將部分資金從蘋果重新部署到其他更具創新性的 “七大奇蹟” 股票中。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 目前的收入增長為 24%；<strong>Alphabet</strong> 在最近一個季度的稀釋每股收益增長為 30%。此外，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 憑藉其一流的 AI 芯片，不僅是新的硬件股票之王——它還是全球市值最大的公司，去年超越了蘋果。所有這些公司都將從 AI 驅動的創新中受益匪淺。</p>
</div><p>For other investors, it may be best to redeploy capital out of the Magnificent Seven altogether -- perhaps by trimming Apple and adding some <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong>, or a defensive play like the <strong>Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於其他投資者來説，最好是完全將資金從七大奇蹟中重新部署——也許通過削減蘋果的持倉並增加一些 <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong>，或者像 <strong>消費品選擇行業 SPDR 基金</strong> 這樣的防禦性投資。</p>
</div><p>At any rate, investors with significant exposure to Apple shouldn't panic. The stock isn't poised for an imminent collapse. However, I do believe Apple faces serious challenges in the years ahead -- which is why investors should be prepared for Apple to be the worst-performing Magnificent Seven stock over the next four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論如何，持有大量蘋果股票的投資者不必驚慌。該股票並不處於即將崩潰的邊緣。然而，我確實認為蘋果在未來幾年面臨嚴重挑戰——這就是為什麼投資者應該為蘋果在未來四年成為表現最差的七大奇蹟股票做好準備。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Apple Will Be the Worst "Magnificent Seven" Stock to Own Between Now and 2030

- 蘋果正面臨三大挑戰：老化的產品、競爭加劇以及監管風險。  
- 投資者需調整預期，蘋果股價轉向價值股，P/E 比率高於其 10 年均值。  
- 建議投資者考慮將部分資金轉向更具創新性的股票，以應對未來挑戰。

預測：蘋果將在現在到 2030 年之間成為 “七大傑出” 股票中最不值得持有的一隻