<ul><li>油價飆升，布倫特原油因特朗普對伊朗衝突的言論上漲 5%</li></ul><ul><li>分析師警告稱，持續戰爭可能破壞能源供應並導致滯脹風險</li></ul><ul><li>投資者轉向避險資產，美元在市場波動中走強</li></ul><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee 和 Gregor Stuart Hunter</p><p>4 月 2 日（路透社）——特朗普總統威脅將伊朗炸回石器時代，這大大提高了正在進行到第五週的戰爭的風險，同時打擊了投資者對迅速結束衝突的希望。該衝突已導致石油供應緊張並推高了通貨膨脹。</p><p>週四，隨着對伊朗的戰爭擔憂加劇，全球市場動盪不安，股票和債券下滑，石油上漲，美元走強，特朗普讓投資者對何時可能結束中東衝突的希望化為泡影。</p><p>特朗普表示，美國軍隊幾乎完成了在伊朗的目標，但他未提供結束衝突的具體時間表。他表示，美國將在未來兩到三週內繼續打擊伊朗的目標。</p><p>這些言論不足以讓緊張的投資者相信中東衝突即將結束。</p><p>“我不認為講話本身透露了太多信息，除了他們將在接下來的兩到三週繼續轟炸這一事實。” 新西蘭奧克蘭的 Electus Financial Ltd 董事 Mike Houlahan 説道。</p><p>“這將把解決時間進一步推遲，” 他説，“接下來的問題是，因為他延長了戰期，確認預計還需兩到三週，這是否會給燃料供應鏈增加壓力？”</p><h3>投資者的重大失望</h3><p>投資者本週早些時候曾寄希望於特朗普的言論能結束衝突，這一預期提振了全球股票並令美元遠離近期高點。但週四的講話揭示了長期戰爭的現實。</p><p>這意味着在長週末即將到來之前，曾增加風險敞口的交易者迅速退出這些頭寸。</p><p>石油供應中斷及其對通脹的影響一直是金融市場的主要關注點，而特朗普週三的言論並未明確表示美國軍事行動是否會在伊朗重新開放霍爾木茲海峽之前結束。</p><p>這一至關重要的水道由伊朗掌控，已經引發了歷史上最嚴重的全球能源危機。特朗普講話後，6 月布倫特原油合約（LCOc1）約上漲 5%，達到每桶 106.16 美元。</p><p>“由於沒有計劃重開他有效關閉的霍爾木茲海峽，油價將無限期保持高位，” Stonex 布里斯本高級市場分析師 Matt Simpson 表示，市場必須面對 “下一輪通脹”。</p><p>特朗普的講話以及長期石油供應中斷的預期可能會加劇市場對滯脹的擔憂，這種高通脹與弱增長的毒性組合 3 月份曾擾亂市場，分析師表示。</p><p>日本可能會因伊朗戰爭面臨滯脹風險，新任日本央行董事淺田統一郎週三表示，這將難以通過貨幣政策來應對。</p><p>“所有投資者都關心的關鍵問題是 ‘這何時會結束？’ 這正是引發行情波動的原因。” Vaneck 悉尼投資與資本市場主管 Russel Chesler 表示。</p><p>“我們現在面臨的是一個滯脹局面的情況，增長率更低而通脹預期更高。”</p><p>週四在亞洲，美國國債收益率因市場擔憂通脹會上升而攀升，這可能關閉任何寬鬆貨幣政策的門檻。特朗普講話後，10 年期國債收益率（US10YT=TWEB）上漲 5 個基點至 4.376%。</p><p>儘管總體市場預計會在未來兩到三週內因投資者緊密關注事態發展而保持波動，分析師預計近期內美國美元和石油將繼續走高，而投資者則進入風險偏好週期中的避險模式。</p><p>美元（=USD）自衝突開始的二月末以來，受益於避險資產需求，在週四兑主要貨幣走高，扭轉了連續兩天的跌勢。</p><p>“美元已經略微上漲……我認為鑑於我們對戰爭將至少延續至六月的預期，美元肯定還能進一步上漲，” 澳大利亞聯邦銀行貨幣策略師 Carol Kong 表示。</p><p>“要對戰爭結束感到樂觀確實很困難，因為最終以色列和伊朗是戰爭中的其他兩個主要參與方，不是僅僅美國。”</p>

美東時間週三晚間9點，川普發表全國講話，自稱美軍對伊朗戰事取得“快速、決定性勝利”，並表示核心戰略目標接近完成。他強調絕不會讓伊朗擁有核武器，並稱美軍對伊朗核設施的打擊取得「巨大成功」。關於霍爾木茲海峽，川普鼓動各國“自己負責”，並未給出明確開放時間表。中東局勢升溫，市場神經緊繃，接下來幾週美軍或將加大火力打擊。美伊衝突是否會如川普所願快速結束？能源市場將如何演變？

<p>美東時間週三晚間9點，川普發表全國講話，自稱美軍對伊朗戰事取得“快速、決定性勝利”，並表示核心戰略目標接近完成。他強調絕不會讓伊朗擁有核武器，並稱美軍對伊朗核設施的打擊取得「巨大成功」。關於霍爾木茲海峽，川普鼓動各國“自己負責”，並未給出明確開放時間表。中東局勢升溫，市場神經緊繃，接下來幾週美軍或將加大火力打擊。美伊衝突是否會如川普所願快速結束？能源市場將如何演變？</p>

川普強硬表態，伊朗戰事接近尾聲了？

西方石油

和順石油

紐蒙特礦業

<ul>
<li>Oil prices surge, Brent jumps 5% after Trump’s comments on Iran conflict</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>油價飆升，布倫特原油因特朗普對伊朗衝突的言論上漲 5%</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Analysts warn of stagflation risks as prolonged war disrupts energy supply</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>分析師警告稱，持續戰爭可能破壞能源供應並導致滯脹風險</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Investors shift to safe-haven assets, dollar strengthens amid market volatility</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>投資者轉向避險資產，美元在市場波動中走強</li>
</ul></div><p>By Ankur Banerjee and Gregor Stuart Hunter</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee 和 Gregor Stuart Hunter</p></div><p>April 2 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age has sharply raised stakes in a war now in its fifth week and crushed investors’ hopes for a swift end to a conflict that is squeezing oil supplies and fanning inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 2 日（路透社）——特朗普總統威脅將伊朗炸回石器時代，這大大提高了正在進行到第五週的戰爭的風險，同時打擊了投資者對迅速結束衝突的希望。該衝突已導致石油供應緊張並推高了通貨膨脹。</p></div><p>Global markets recoiled on Thursday as war jitters over Iran deepened, with stocks and bonds sliding, oil surging and the dollar firming after Trump dashed hopes for clarity on when the Middle East conflict might end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，隨着對伊朗的戰爭擔憂加劇，全球市場動盪不安，股票和債券下滑，石油上漲，美元走強，特朗普讓投資者對何時可能結束中東衝突的希望化為泡影。</p></div><p>Trump said that the U.S. military had nearly accomplished its goals in Iran, but he did not offer a concrete timeline for winding down the conflict. He said the U.S. would continue to hit targets in Iran over the next two to three weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普表示，美國軍隊幾乎完成了在伊朗的目標，但他未提供結束衝突的具體時間表。他表示，美國將在未來兩到三週內繼續打擊伊朗的目標。</p></div><p>Those comments did little to convince jittery investors that an end to the Middle East conflict was close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些言論不足以讓緊張的投資者相信中東衝突即將結束。</p></div><p>“I don’t think there was an awful lot in the speech per se, apart from the fact that they’re going to keep bombing for the next two to three weeks,” said Mike Houlahan, director of Electus Financial Ltd in Auckland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我不認為講話本身透露了太多信息，除了他們將在接下來的兩到三週繼續轟炸這一事實。” 新西蘭奧克蘭的 Electus Financial Ltd 董事 Mike Houlahan 説道。</p></div><p>“That pushes out the resolution timeframe farther,” he said. “The next question is because he’s extended it, confirmed it’s going to take another two to three weeks, does that put added pressure on the fuel supply chain?”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這將把解決時間進一步推遲，” 他説，“接下來的問題是，因為他延長了戰期，確認預計還需兩到三週，這是否會給燃料供應鏈增加壓力？”</p></div><h3>BIG LETDOWN FOR INVESTORS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>投資者的重大失望</h3></div><p>Investors had pinned their hopes of an end to the conflict after comments from Trump earlier in the week, lifting global stocks and pushing the dollar off its recent highs but Thursday’s speech laid bare the reality of a long war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者本週早些時候曾寄希望於特朗普的言論能結束衝突，這一預期提振了全球股票並令美元遠離近期高點。但週四的講話揭示了長期戰爭的現實。</p></div><p>That meant traders who had been adding risk exposure were swiftly exiting those positions ahead of a long weekend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着在長週末即將到來之前，曾增加風險敞口的交易者迅速退出這些頭寸。</p></div><p>Oil supply disruption and its impact on inflation have been a major concern for financial markets, and Trump’s comments on Wednesday were not clear about whether U.S. military operations could end even before Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石油供應中斷及其對通脹的影響一直是金融市場的主要關注點，而特朗普週三的言論並未明確表示美國軍事行動是否會在伊朗重新開放霍爾木茲海峽之前結束。</p></div><p>That vital waterway on which the Islamic Republic has a chokehold has created the worst global energy shock in history. The Brent contract for June (LCOc1) jumped about 5% to $106.16 per barrel after Trump’s speech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一至關重要的水道由伊朗掌控，已經引發了歷史上最嚴重的全球能源危機。特朗普講話後，6 月布倫特原油合約（LCOc1）約上漲 5%，達到每桶 106.16 美元。</p></div><p>“With no plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that he effectively closed, oil prices are to remain high indefinitely,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at Stonex in Brisbane, and markets will have to face “the next round of inflation”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由於沒有計劃重開他有效關閉的霍爾木茲海峽，油價將無限期保持高位，” Stonex 布里斯本高級市場分析師 Matt Simpson 表示，市場必須面對 “下一輪通脹”。</p></div><p>Trump’s speech and prospects of prolonged disruption to oil supplies could add to market concerns over stagflation, the toxic mix of high inflation and weak growth that roiled markets in March, analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的講話以及長期石油供應中斷的預期可能會加劇市場對滯脹的擔憂，這種高通脹與弱增長的毒性組合 3 月份曾擾亂市場，分析師表示。</p></div><p>Japan may face stagflation risks from the Iran war that would be challenging to deal with using monetary policy, new Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada said on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本可能會因伊朗戰爭面臨滯脹風險，新任日本央行董事淺田統一郎週三表示，這將難以通過貨幣政策來應對。</p></div><p>“The key question in all investors’ minds is ‘when is this going to be over?’, that is what is creating the volatility,” said Russel Chesler, head of investments and capital markets at Vaneck in Sydney.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“所有投資者都關心的關鍵問題是 ‘這何時會結束？’ 這正是引發行情波動的原因。” Vaneck 悉尼投資與資本市場主管 Russel Chesler 表示。</p></div><p>“We are looking at a situation now where we are getting into a stagflation situation with lower growth and higher inflation expectations.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們現在面臨的是一個滯脹局面的情況，增長率更低而通脹預期更高。”</p></div><p>Treasury yields rose in Asia on Thursday on concerns that higher inflation would close the door to any prospect of easier monetary policy. Yields on 10-year notes (US10YT=TWEB) climbed 5 basis points to 4.376% after Trump’s speech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四在亞洲，美國國債收益率因市場擔憂通脹會上升而攀升，這可能關閉任何寬鬆貨幣政策的門檻。特朗普講話後，10 年期國債收益率（US10YT=TWEB）上漲 5 個基點至 4.376%。</p></div><p>While the overall markets are expected to remain volatile as investors keenly watch developments over the next two to three weeks, analysts expect the U.S. dollar and oil to move higher in the near-term, while investors go into risk-off mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管總體市場預計會在未來兩到三週內因投資者緊密關注事態發展而保持波動，分析師預計近期內美國美元和石油將繼續走高，而投資者則進入風險偏好週期中的避險模式。</p></div><p>The dollar (=USD) , which has benefited from a rush to safe-haven assets since the conflict began in late February, advanced against major currencies on Thursday, reversing two days of losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元（=USD）自衝突開始的二月末以來，受益於避險資產需求，在週四兑主要貨幣走高，扭轉了連續兩天的跌勢。</p></div><p>“The dollar has already edged a little bit higher … and I think given our expectations for the war to extend into at least June, the dollar can definitely increase further,” said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美元已經略微上漲……我認為鑑於我們對戰爭將至少延續至六月的預期，美元肯定還能進一步上漲，” 澳大利亞聯邦銀行貨幣策略師 Carol Kong 表示。</p></div><p>“It’s hard to feel optimistic about the end of the war for sure, because ultimately Israel and Iran are the two other parties to the war; it’s not just the U.S.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“要對戰爭結束感到樂觀確實很困難，因為最終以色列和伊朗是戰爭中的其他兩個主要參與方，不是僅僅美國。”</p></div>

Trump's fresh Iran threats give investors a risk-off reality check

- 布倫特原油因特朗普言論上漲 5%，市場擔憂長期戰爭風險。  
- 投資者轉向避險資產，美元在波動中走強，通脹預期加劇。  
- 分析師稱，滯脹風險可能影響全球經濟，戰爭前景不明。

特朗普對伊朗的新威脅讓投資者重新審視風險偏好週期