<p>作者：朱爾斯·裏默</p><p>自伊朗戰爭爆發以來，黃金的表現更像是其他風險資產</p><p>在上週觸底後，黃金一直在與其他風險資產同步恢復，直到週三的總統演講削弱了投資者信心</p><p>黃金從避險資產轉變為反映更廣泛市場情緒的過程在週四得到了進一步驗證，金價大幅下跌。</p><p>伊朗戰爭逆轉了黃金與地緣政治動盪之間的傳統關係。隨着中東衝突的爆發，黃金在三月份下跌了約 12%。更糟糕的是，特朗普總統對國家的講話模糊不清且有時自相矛盾，導致市場在週四大幅波動，黃金與股票、加密貨幣及其他被視為風險資產的資產一起下跌。</p><p>在三月底觸底至每盎司 4376 美元后，黃金（GC00）逐漸恢復，直到特朗普週三的演講逆轉了這一趨勢。在週四的交易中，黃金下跌超過 3%，至每盎司 4657 美元。</p><p>有多種因素共同作用，解釋了黃金行為特徵的變化。其中最主要的是年初時黃金出現的巨大投機泡沫，當時黃金在一月底創下了每盎司 5626 美元的日內高點。巨大的槓桿效應積累起來，摩根士丹利的莉娜·托馬斯週一發佈的一份報告指出，認購期權需求達到了歷史新高。</p><p>認購期權需求的快速上升推動黃金價格超出了摩根士丹利的預測。</p><p>當戰爭開始時，發生了顯著的去槓桿化。此外，風險的顯著去粗化也發生了，因此使用黃金多頭頭寸對沖 “七大奇蹟” 股票 MAGS、軟件 IGV 或比特幣（BTCUSD）空頭的交易者清算了他們的敞口。</p><p>黃金傳統上與利率和美元 DXY 呈現負相關關係。隨着三月份通脹預期的上升和避險需求使美元指數回升至 100 以上，這對黃金價格造成了壓力，有效抵消了投資者所期望的典型避險特性。</p><p>然而，黃金下跌還有其他更近期的動機。例如，面臨更高的能源進口賬單，像土耳其這樣的國家發現自己別無選擇，只能出售一些黃金儲備以支撐其貨幣。波蘭中央銀行是近年來最大的黃金戰略買家之一，公開討論出售黃金以增加國防開支。</p><p>在中東的石油美元國家，因在競爭激烈的霍爾木茲海峽出口石油而苦苦掙扎，因此缺乏美元來支付食品進口，可能也會被迫放棄黃金儲備以支付賬單。摩根士丹利的托馬斯對此持懷疑態度，但承認這些説法在市場上流傳。</p><p>摩根士丹利週一發佈的報告重申了其對黃金作為通脹對沖/避險吸引力的信念，托馬斯認為這種吸引力將逐漸重新顯現。她和合著者達安·斯特魯伊文指出，在過去五十年中，任何十二個月的時間裏，當股票和債券的實際回報為負時，黃金和商品的實際回報為正。</p><p>在任何 12 個月的時間裏，當股票和債券的實際回報為負時，商品或黃金的實際回報為正。</p><p>該報告維持了對 2026 年年底黃金價格目標 5400 美元的預期，強調目前投機性頭寸較低，並且市場正在定價比歷史先例更為鷹派的利率政策衝擊。摩根士丹利與目前債券市場的共識相反，預計美聯儲今年將進行兩次 25 個基點的降息（FF00）。</p><p>此外，摩根士丹利預測，中央銀行的需求將繼續成為支撐黃金價格的基本支柱，預計每月平均約 60 公噸，一旦價格波動減弱，這一中央銀行需求本身，托馬斯計算，價值 535 美元。</p><p>摩根士丹利的立場並非獨特。瑞銀的喬尼·特維斯週四發佈的一份報告認為，“黃金延續牛市的風險在上升，較弱的增長觸發財政和/或貨幣刺激對黃金構成上行風險。”</p><p>儘管將其年末預測從 5200 美元下調至 5000 美元，特維斯仍高於分析師共識的 4844 美元。</p><p>另請閲讀：瑞銀策略師表示，黃金的牛市可能接近尾聲</p><p>-朱爾斯·裏默</p><p>本文由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p><p>04-02-26 0510ET</p>

3 倍做多黃金礦業 ETN - MicroSectors

金礦小盤股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

紫金礦業

<p>黃金價格大幅下跌，表現得更像是風險資產，受到伊朗戰爭帶來的地緣政治緊張局勢的影響。在一場削弱投資者信心的總統演講後，黃金價格下跌超過 3%，至每盎司 4,657 美元。影響這一變化的因素包括投機泡沫、去槓桿化，以及像土耳其這樣的國家出售黃金儲備以穩定貨幣。高盛維持對黃金的年末價格目標為 5,400 美元，認為低投機頭寸和持續的中央銀行需求是關鍵支撐。瑞銀也認為，在經濟增長疲軟和刺激風險的背景下，黃金的牛市仍有繼續的潛力</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱爾斯·裏默</p>
</div><p>Since the outbreak of the Iranian war, gold has behaved more like any other risk-on asset</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗戰爭爆發以來，黃金的表現更像是其他風險資產</p>
</div><p>After troughing last week, gold had been recovering in line with other risk-on assets until Wednesday's presidential address undermined investor sentiment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上週觸底後，黃金一直在與其他風險資產同步恢復，直到週三的總統演講削弱了投資者信心</p>
</div><p>Gold's switch from being a safe-haven asset to reflecting the broader market's mood was reinforced on Thursday, as the metal's price dropped sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金從避險資產轉變為反映更廣泛市場情緒的過程在週四得到了進一步驗證，金價大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war has reversed the traditional relationship of gold to geopolitical turbulence. With the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, gold fell around 12% in March. To compound matters, after an inconclusive and at times contradictory address to the nation from President Trump sent markets sprawling Thursday, gold declined along with equities, crypto and other assets considered risk-on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗戰爭逆轉了黃金與地緣政治動盪之間的傳統關係。隨着中東衝突的爆發，黃金在三月份下跌了約 12%。更糟糕的是，特朗普總統對國家的講話模糊不清且有時自相矛盾，導致市場在週四大幅波動，黃金與股票、加密貨幣及其他被視為風險資產的資產一起下跌。</p>
</div><p>Having troughed at $4,376 per ounce at the end of March, gold (GC00) had been recovering gradually until Trump's speech Wednesday reversed that trend. In Thursday trading gold fell over 3% to $4,657 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在三月底觸底至每盎司 4376 美元后，黃金（GC00）逐漸恢復，直到特朗普週三的演講逆轉了這一趨勢。在週四的交易中，黃金下跌超過 3%，至每盎司 4657 美元。</p>
</div><p>There is a combination of factors at work to explain the shift in gold's behavioral characteristics. Chief among them was the huge speculative froth that had developed in the earlier part of the year when gold recorded an intraday peak of $5,626 near the end of January. Immense leverage built up, and a note published by Goldman Sachs' Lina Thomas on Monday identified a rise in call option demand to all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有多種因素共同作用，解釋了黃金行為特徵的變化。其中最主要的是年初時黃金出現的巨大投機泡沫，當時黃金在一月底創下了每盎司 5626 美元的日內高點。巨大的槓桿效應積累起來，摩根士丹利的莉娜·托馬斯週一發佈的一份報告指出，認購期權需求達到了歷史新高。</p>
</div><p>The rapid rise in call option demand drove gold prices to overshoot Goldman's forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>認購期權需求的快速上升推動黃金價格超出了摩根士丹利的預測。</p>
</div><p>When the war began then, a significant deleveraging took place. Moreover a significant de-grossing of risk also took place, so traders using long gold positions to hedge shorts in Magnificent Seven stocks MAGS, software IGV or bitcoin (BTCUSD), liquidated their exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當戰爭開始時，發生了顯著的去槓桿化。此外，風險的顯著去粗化也發生了，因此使用黃金多頭頭寸對沖 “七大奇蹟” 股票 MAGS、軟件 IGV 或比特幣（BTCUSD）空頭的交易者清算了他們的敞口。</p>
</div><p>Gold has traditionally demonstrated an inverse correlation with interest rates and the dollar DXY. As inflation expectations jumped in March and haven appeal lifted the dollar index back north of 100, this weighed on gold prices, effectively offsetting the typical flight-to-safety qualities investors expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金傳統上與利率和美元 DXY 呈現負相關關係。隨着三月份通脹預期的上升和避險需求使美元指數回升至 100 以上，這對黃金價格造成了壓力，有效抵消了投資者所期望的典型避險特性。</p>
</div><p>There are other more recent motivations behind gold's fall, however. Faced with higher energy import bills, countries like Turkey, for example, found themselves with no option but to sell some gold reserves to shore up its currency. Poland's central bank, one of the largest strategic buyers of gold in the last several years, openly discussed selling gold to fund increased defense spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，黃金下跌還有其他更近期的動機。例如，面臨更高的能源進口賬單，像土耳其這樣的國家發現自己別無選擇，只能出售一些黃金儲備以支撐其貨幣。波蘭中央銀行是近年來最大的黃金戰略買家之一，公開討論出售黃金以增加國防開支。</p>
</div><p>Petrodollar states in the Middle East, struggling to export oil (BRN00) through the hotly-contested Strait of Hormuz and therefore running short of dollars to fund food imports, may also find themselves obliged to relinquish gold reserves to pay bills. Goldman's Thomas is skeptical of these claims but acknowledges they are circulating in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在中東的石油美元國家，因在競爭激烈的霍爾木茲海峽出口石油而苦苦掙扎，因此缺乏美元來支付食品進口，可能也會被迫放棄黃金儲備以支付賬單。摩根士丹利的托馬斯對此持懷疑態度，但承認這些説法在市場上流傳。</p>
</div><p>The Goldman Sachs note published Monday reasserted its belief in the inflation-hedging/ safe-haven allure of gold that Thomas thinks will gradually reassert itself. She and co-author Daan Struyven point out that during any twelve-month period in the last fifty years or so when stocks and bonds delivered negative real returns, then gold and commodities delivered positive real returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利週一發佈的報告重申了其對黃金作為通脹對沖/避險吸引力的信念，托馬斯認為這種吸引力將逐漸重新顯現。她和合著者達安·斯特魯伊文指出，在過去五十年中，任何十二個月的時間裏，當股票和債券的實際回報為負時，黃金和商品的實際回報為正。</p>
</div><p>During any 12-month period when both stocks and bonds had negative real returns, either commodities or gold had positive real returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在任何 12 個月的時間裏，當股票和債券的實際回報為負時，商品或黃金的實際回報為正。</p>
</div><p>The report maintained its year-end 2026 price target of $5,400 for gold, emphasizing that speculative positioning is now low and also that markets are pricing in a more hawkish, interest-rate policy shock than historical precedent suggests. Goldmans, contrary to bond market consensus at present, anticipates two 25 basis point rate cuts (FF00) from the Federal Reserve this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該報告維持了對 2026 年年底黃金價格目標 5400 美元的預期，強調目前投機性頭寸較低，並且市場正在定價比歷史先例更為鷹派的利率政策衝擊。摩根士丹利與目前債券市場的共識相反，預計美聯儲今年將進行兩次 25 個基點的降息（FF00）。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Goldman Sachs predicts that central bank demand will remain a fundamental pillar of support, averaging about 60 metric tons monthly, once price volatility dissipates. This central bank demand alone, Thomas, calculates, is worth $535 to the gold price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，摩根士丹利預測，中央銀行的需求將繼續成為支撐黃金價格的基本支柱，預計每月平均約 60 公噸，一旦價格波動減弱，這一中央銀行需求本身，托馬斯計算，價值 535 美元。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs' position is not unique. A report published Thursday by Joni Teves at UBS opines that &#34;the risk that gold extends its bull run for a couple more years is rising. Weaker growth that triggers fiscal and/or monetary stimulus presents upside risks for gold.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的立場並非獨特。瑞銀的喬尼·特維斯週四發佈的一份報告認為，“黃金延續牛市的風險在上升，較弱的增長觸發財政和/或貨幣刺激對黃金構成上行風險。”</p>
</div><p>While shaving her year-end forecast from $5,200 to $5,000, Teves stays just above the analyst consensus of $4,844.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管將其年末預測從 5200 美元下調至 5000 美元，特維斯仍高於分析師共識的 4844 美元。</p>
</div><p>Also read: Gold's bull run could be nearing its finish line, says UBS strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另請閲讀：瑞銀策略師表示，黃金的牛市可能接近尾聲</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-朱爾斯·裏默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>04-02-26 0510ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>04-02-26 0510ET</p>
</div>

Gold is again falling sharply, with the stock market. Why it's not behaving the way it used to during a crisis.

Dow Jones

紐蒙特礦業

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

阿尼科伊格爾礦業

2 倍做多金礦指數 ETF - Direxion

黃金和貴金屬礦商 ETF - U.S. Global

全球黃金礦業股 MSCI ETF - iShares

金礦股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

初級黃金礦股 ETF

Gold.com

黃金礦 ETF - Sprott

2 倍做空金礦指數 ETF - Direxion

黃金 MiniShares 信託 - SPDR

中金黃金

2 倍做多小型金礦指數 ETF - Direxion

山東黃金

黃金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

2 倍做多黃金 ETF - ProShares

華夏中證滬深港黃金產業股票ETF

華夏黃金ETF

2 倍做空小型金礦指數 ETF - Direxion

易方達黃金礦-U

SPDR 金 ETF

Kinross Gold

黃金 ETF - iShares

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

易方達黃金礦-R

黃金再次與股市一起大幅下跌。為什麼它在危機期間的表現不像過去那樣