<p>（本文所表達的觀點屬於作者個人觀點，其為路透社專欄作家）</p><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p><p>倫敦，4 月 2 日（路透社）—金屬交易員年初憂心的是銅供應危機，但第一季度結束時卻面臨迫在眉睫的鋁供應危機。</p><p>伊朗戰爭已進入第五週，其澆滅了部分源自黃金和白銀市場的投機狂潮，這股熱潮在一月份湧入了倫敦金屬交易所（LME）基本金屬市場。</p><p>但這一局面已經將鋁（CMAL3）推升至 2022 年以來的最高水平，兩家海灣冶煉廠受到伊朗導彈襲擊的破壞，霍爾木茲海峽的航運仍備受約束。</p><p>這一事實表明，錫與鋁在第一季度的表現相當，即使能源價格飆升使需求前景黯淡，金屬牛市投資者仍在觀望。</p><h3>動盪的鋁</h3><p>伊朗戰爭暴露了西方鋁供應鏈的脆弱性。波斯灣約佔全球冶煉能力的 9% 及全球除中國外出口量的 18%。</p><p>初始影響是物流緊張，由於霍爾木茲海峽的實際關閉而引發。卡塔爾冶煉廠 Qatalum 和巴林鋁業（Alba）（ALBH.BH）均降低了運營速度以保留原材料庫存。</p><p>隨後是直接襲擊。根據諮詢公司 Wood Mackenzie 的數據，巴林鋁業受到伊朗導彈襲擊，目前只剩下 30% 的產能，而由阿聯酋全球鋁業公司運營的阿爾塔維拉冶煉廠由於其發電廠受損目前已完全停止生產。</p><p>這是一個無人預料的危機，其衝擊波正沿着供應鏈傳播。</p><p>西方鋁買家正面臨雙重打擊，即 LME 鋁價的同步上漲以及實物升水的急劇攀升。</p><h3>追逐稀缺性敍事</h3><p>LME 銅（CMCU3）在一月份達到了每噸 14,527.50 美元的歷史名義高點，投資者因其誘人的牛市論述即輝煌需求增長和供應受限而紛紛購買該金屬。</p><p>然而，目前並不存在銅的短缺現象。全球交易所庫存在三月底達到了 140 多萬噸的多年高位。</p><p>不斷增長的多餘金屬庫存減弱了部分的看漲熱情，LME 三個月銅（CMCU3）收盤價季度降至每噸 12,335.50 美元，較一月峯值低 15%，與年初幾乎持平。</p><p>同樣的模式也在錫（CMSN3）市場上顯現，投資者因追逐供應稀缺的同樣敍事，其價格在一月份躍升至每噸 59,040 美元的紀錄高位。</p><p>然而，工業玩家紛紛向 LME 倉庫交付金屬。從年初以來，註冊錫庫存躍升了 60% 達到 8,675 噸，另外還有 2,951 噸存在於 LME 的無保證庫存類別中。</p><p>值得注意的是，和銅一樣，在 LME 錫價的價差結構中沒有發現緊張跡象。這兩種金屬交易中都呈現寬幅價差，沒有即刻的單位短缺。</p><p>鎳和鉛市場同樣也不存在短缺危險。LME 的兩種金屬庫存均較高且時間價差表現非常放鬆。</p><p>事實上，LME 鉛庫存已暴增至超過 50 萬噸，這種重金屬正路線變成鋁之後的金屬金融工具的選擇。</p><p>鋅仍是一個例外，鍍鋅金屬依然不願按熊市腳本表現。</p><p>LME 庫存未能以任何有意義的方式恢復—庫存比年初增加了僅 7,900 噸，而現貨至三個月的時間價差（CMZN0-3）以每噸 5.00 美元的邊際價差交易。</p><h3>第二輪影響</h3><p>隨着進入第二季度，懸掛在 LME 基本金屬上的大問題是伊朗戰爭對需求的影響是什麼。</p><p>能源價格飆升對製造商和消費者均不利。</p><p>當然，這很大程度上取決於敵對行動持續的時間，這就是為什麼金屬在一月份成為頭條新聞，而三月份則跟隨新聞。</p><p>對鋁來説，這場戰爭已經持續得太久，波斯灣關鍵生產資產的損失將在未來幾個月內持續顯現。</p><p>（本文所表達觀點屬於安迪·霍姆，路透社專欄作家）喜歡這篇文章？瀏覽路透社 Open Interest（ROI），您全球金融評論的新主要來源。在 LinkedIn 與 X 上關注 ROI，並在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社應用程序上收聽每日播客 Morning Bid。訂閲以便路透社記者每日七天討論市場與金融的重大新聞。</p><p>2026 年第一季度 LME 金屬相對價格表現</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47D7y4x?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2554" height="1096" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47D7y4x"/></p><p>海灣供應衝擊下實物鋁升水上漲</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s7WnrW?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2542" height="1102" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s7WnrW"/></p><p>全球交易所銅庫存在三月突破 140 萬噸</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47GJdea?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1678" height="808" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47GJdea"/></p><p>LME 鉛庫存突破五十萬噸</p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4bZs2pn?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1356" height="678" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4bZs2pn"/></p><p>（撰稿：安迪·霍姆；編輯：瑪格麗塔·夏伊）</p><p>)</p>

美東時間週三晚間9點，川普發表全國講話，自稱美軍對伊朗戰事取得“快速、決定性勝利”，並表示核心戰略目標接近完成。他強調絕不會讓伊朗擁有核武器，並稱美軍對伊朗核設施的打擊取得「巨大成功」。關於霍爾木茲海峽，川普鼓動各國“自己負責”，並未給出明確開放時間表。中東局勢升溫，市場神經緊繃，接下來幾週美軍或將加大火力打擊。美伊衝突是否會如川普所願快速結束？能源市場將如何演變？

<p>美東時間週三晚間9點，川普發表全國講話，自稱美軍對伊朗戰事取得“快速、決定性勝利”，並表示核心戰略目標接近完成。他強調絕不會讓伊朗擁有核武器，並稱美軍對伊朗核設施的打擊取得「巨大成功」。關於霍爾木茲海峽，川普鼓動各國“自己負責”，並未給出明確開放時間表。中東局勢升溫，市場神經緊繃，接下來幾週美軍或將加大火力打擊。美伊衝突是否會如川普所願快速結束？能源市場將如何演變？</p>

川普強硬表態，伊朗戰事接近尾聲了？

中國鋁業

江西銅業

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（本文所表達的觀點屬於作者個人觀點，其為路透社專欄作家）</p></div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p></div><p>LONDON, April 2 (Reuters) - Metals traders started the year worrying about a looming supply crunch in copper but ended the first quarter facing a very imminent supply crisis in aluminium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，4 月 2 日（路透社）—金屬交易員年初憂心的是銅供應危機，但第一季度結束時卻面臨迫在眉睫的鋁供應危機。</p></div><p>The Iran war, now in its fifth week, has dampened some of the speculative frenzy that spilled out of the gold and silver markets into the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals complex in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗戰爭已進入第五週，其澆滅了部分源自黃金和白銀市場的投機狂潮，這股熱潮在一月份湧入了倫敦金屬交易所（LME）基本金屬市場。</p></div><p>But it has propelled aluminium (CMAL3) to its highest level since 2022 with two Gulf smelters damaged by Iranian missile strikes and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still severely constrained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這一局面已經將鋁（CMAL3）推升至 2022 年以來的最高水平，兩家海灣冶煉廠受到伊朗導彈襲擊的破壞，霍爾木茲海峽的航運仍備受約束。</p></div><p>The fact that tin matched aluminium’s first-quarter performance tells you that the metals bulls are still lurking in the wings even as surging energy prices darken the demand outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一事實表明，錫與鋁在第一季度的表現相當，即使能源價格飆升使需求前景黯淡，金屬牛市投資者仍在觀望。</p></div><h3>EXPLOSIVE ALUMINIUM</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>動盪的鋁</h3></div><p>The Iran war has exposed the fragility of the Western aluminium supply chain. The Gulf accounts for around 9% of world smelting capacity and 18% of global exports outside of China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗戰爭暴露了西方鋁供應鏈的脆弱性。波斯灣約佔全球冶煉能力的 9% 及全球除中國外出口量的 18%。</p></div><p>The initial impact was a logistics squeeze caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Both Qatari smelter Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) (ALBH.BH) reduced operating rates to preserve raw material stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初始影響是物流緊張，由於霍爾木茲海峽的實際關閉而引發。卡塔爾冶煉廠 Qatalum 和巴林鋁業（Alba）（ALBH.BH）均降低了運營速度以保留原材料庫存。</p></div><p>Then came the direct strikes. Alba was targeted by Iranian missiles and is now down to 30% capacity, while the giant Al Taweelah smelter, operated by Emirates Global Aluminium, is completely out of action after damage to its power plant, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨後是直接襲擊。根據諮詢公司 Wood Mackenzie 的數據，巴林鋁業受到伊朗導彈襲擊，目前只剩下 30% 的產能，而由阿聯酋全球鋁業公司運營的阿爾塔維拉冶煉廠由於其發電廠受損目前已完全停止生產。</p></div><p>It’s a crisis that no one saw coming, and the shock waves are running down the supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個無人預料的危機，其衝擊波正沿着供應鏈傳播。</p></div><p>Western aluminium buyers are facing a double blow from the simultaneous rise in the LME aluminium price and a sharp jump in physical premiums.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西方鋁買家正面臨雙重打擊，即 LME 鋁價的同步上漲以及實物升水的急劇攀升。</p></div><h3>CHASING THE SCARCITY MEME</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>追逐稀缺性敍事</h3></div><p>LME copper (CMCU3) hit an all-time nominal high of $14,527.50 per metric ton in January as investors bought into the metal’s enticing bull narrative of stellar demand growth and constrained supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 銅（CMCU3）在一月份達到了每噸 14,527.50 美元的歷史名義高點，投資者因其誘人的牛市論述即輝煌需求增長和供應受限而紛紛購買該金屬。</p></div><p>There is, however, no shortage of copper in the here and now. Global exchange stocks closed March at just over 1.4 million metric tons, a multi-year high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，目前並不存在銅的短缺現象。全球交易所庫存在三月底達到了 140 多萬噸的多年高位。</p></div><p>The growing mountain of surplus metal has dampened some of the bullish fire and LME three-month copper (CMCU3) closed the quarter at $12,335.50 per ton, 15% below the January peak and pretty much flat on the start of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不斷增長的多餘金屬庫存減弱了部分的看漲熱情，LME 三個月銅（CMCU3）收盤價季度降至每噸 12,335.50 美元，較一月峯值低 15%，與年初幾乎持平。</p></div><p>The same pattern has played out in tin (CMSN3) , which leapt to a record high of $59,040 per ton in January as investors chased the same meme of supply scarcity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣的模式也在錫（CMSN3）市場上顯現，投資者因追逐供應稀缺的同樣敍事，其價格在一月份躍升至每噸 59,040 美元的紀錄高位。</p></div><p>Here too, though, industrial players responded by delivering metal into LME warehouses. Registered tin stocks have jumped by 60% to 8,675 tons since the start of the year with another 2,951 tons lurking in the LME’s off-warrant stocks category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，工業玩家紛紛向 LME 倉庫交付金屬。從年初以來，註冊錫庫存躍升了 60% 達到 8,675 噸，另外還有 2,951 噸存在於 LME 的無保證庫存類別中。</p></div><p>Tellingly, as with copper, there is no hint of tightness in the LME tin spread structure. Both metals are trading in wide contango, signalling no immediate shortage of units.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，和銅一樣，在 LME 錫價的價差結構中沒有發現緊張跡象。這兩種金屬交易中都呈現寬幅價差，沒有即刻的單位短缺。</p></div><p>Nor is there any danger of shortfall in either nickel or lead markets. LME stocks of both are high and time-spreads are super relaxed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鎳和鉛市場同樣也不存在短缺危險。LME 的兩種金屬庫存均較高且時間價差表現非常放鬆。</p></div><p>Indeed, LME lead stocks have mushroomed to over 500,000 tons and the heavy metal is on course to take over from aluminium as the metallic financing vehicle of choice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，LME 鉛庫存已暴增至超過 50 萬噸，這種重金屬正路線變成鋁之後的金屬金融工具的選擇。</p></div><p>Zinc remains an outlier, the galvanising metal still stubbornly refusing to perform to bear script.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋅仍是一個例外，鍍鋅金屬依然不願按熊市腳本表現。</p></div><p>LME inventory has failed to rebuild in any meaningful way - stocks are up just 7,900 tons on the start of the year - and the cash-to-three-months time-spread (CMZN0-3) is trading at a marginal contango of $5.00 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 庫存未能以任何有意義的方式恢復—庫存比年初增加了僅 7,900 噸，而現貨至三個月的時間價差（CMZN0-3）以每噸 5.00 美元的邊際價差交易。</p></div><h3>SECOND-ROUND IMPACT</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>第二輪影響</h3></div><p>The big question mark hanging over the LME base metals as we enter the second quarter is what impact the Iran war will have on demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着進入第二季度，懸掛在 LME 基本金屬上的大問題是伊朗戰爭對需求的影響是什麼。</p></div><p>Surging energy prices are not good news for either manufacturers or consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源價格飆升對製造商和消費者均不利。</p></div><p>Much of course depends on how long hostilities last, which is why metals have gone from making the headlines in January to slavishly following them in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，這很大程度上取決於敵對行動持續的時間，這就是為什麼金屬在一月份成為頭條新聞，而三月份則跟隨新聞。</p></div><p>For aluminium, though, the war has already gone on too long and the loss of key production assets in the Gulf is going to be felt for many months to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對鋁來説，這場戰爭已經持續得太久，波斯灣關鍵生產資產的損失將在未來幾個月內持續顯現。</p></div><p>(The opinions expressed here are those of Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X. And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（本文所表達觀點屬於安迪·霍姆，路透社專欄作家）喜歡這篇文章？瀏覽路透社 Open Interest（ROI），您全球金融評論的新主要來源。在 LinkedIn 與 X 上關注 ROI，並在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社應用程序上收聽每日播客 Morning Bid。訂閲以便路透社記者每日七天討論市場與金融的重大新聞。</p></div><p>LME metals relative price performance in Q1 2026</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年第一季度 LME 金屬相對價格表現</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47D7y4x" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/47D7y4x"/></p>
<p>Physical aluminium premiums jump on Gulf supply shock</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海灣供應衝擊下實物鋁升水上漲</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s7WnrW" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4s7WnrW"/></p>
<p>Global exchange stocks of copper top 1.4 million tons in March</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球交易所銅庫存在三月突破 140 萬噸</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/47GJdea" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/47GJdea"/></p>
<p>LME lead stocks hit half-million ton mark</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 鉛庫存突破五十萬噸</p></div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4bZs2pn" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4bZs2pn"/></p>
<p>(Writing by Andy Home; Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（撰稿：安迪·霍姆；編輯：瑪格麗塔·夏伊）</p></div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p></div>

ROI-LME交易者錯誤地評估了金屬供應危機：安迪·霍姆