<div id="readability-page-1"><div>Theglobal tug-of-war for fuel looks set to accelerate, with traders scrambling to secure supplies even more aggressively after President Trump showed no signs of an end to hostilities (and a reopening of the Strait) any time soon.The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more intense the competition is likely to become. Traders have warned that Europe is at risk of diesel shortages in the coming weeks.<blockquote>“Everything about this market is wild,” said Philip Jones-Lux, a senior oil analyst at energy analytics firm Sparta Commodities. “Europe is still short of diesel, but the situation in Asia is so much more acute that prices there are pulling barrels halfway around the world.”.</blockquote>Nevertheless,Europe’s diesel futures rose to the highest level since 2022, as the Iran war hits supply of the fuel that powers the global economy.<img width="500" height="300" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzI1MDBfMC5qcGcmdz0xOTIw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzI1MDBfMC5qcGcmdz0xOTIw"/>As Bloomberg reports,futures traded as high as $1,498 a ton, or more than $200 a barrel, as they surged as much as 9.7% in London.<img width="500" height="298" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzL2JmbUNBQThfMC5qcGcmdz0xOTIw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzL2JmbUNBQThfMC5qcGcmdz0xOTIw"/>Prices have almost doubled since the war in the Middle East started over a month ago with US and Israeli attacks on Iran, and Tehran’s retaliation resulting in an effective closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz. As Goldman futures trader, Robert Quinn notes (pro subs can read Quinn's full note here), the onset of the Iran War forced substantial producer short covering in European Diesel.<blockquote>According to Commitment of Traders, Gasoil Producer, Merchant, Processor, and User (PMPU) shorts tumbled -$13bn during February 24th - March 10th. This marked the largest 2 week decline since Russia attempted to invade Ukraine.<img width="500" height="393" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzAlMjAlMjg0MSUyOV8xMi5qcGcmdz0xOTIw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzAlMjAlMjg0MSUyOV8xMi5qcGcmdz0xOTIw"/>But PMPU downside eventually reinitiated, albeit slowly. Over March 10th - 24th, PMPU shorts rebounded +$3.9bn.And speculators resumed long purchases. After generally liquidating throughout the initial price rally, Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable bought +$1.3bn of gross longs from March 17th - 24th.<img width="500" height="393" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzAlMjAlMjg0MiUyOV8xMS5qcGcmdz0xOTIw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzAlMjAlMjg0MiUyOV8xMS5qcGcmdz0xOTIw"/>As questions surrounding the conflict's sustainability surfaced, general risk reduction ensued. Over March 24th - April 1st, which included the administration's initial signaling for an end to the fighting, Gasoil aggregate open interest shed -$3.7bn. <img width="500" height="393" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzAlMjAlMjg2OCUyOV84LmpwZyZ3PTE5MjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzAlMjAlMjg2OCUyOV84LmpwZyZ3PTE5MjA"/>Notably, 3 month implied volatility and normalized 25 delta put-call skew retraced from their respective max and min.<img width="500" height="393" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzAlMjAlMjg2OSUyOV84LmpwZyZ3PTE5MjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzAlMjAlMjg2OSUyOV84LmpwZyZ3PTE5MjA"/>Thus Trump's recent vow to strike Iran &#34;extremely hard&#34; has conceivably prompted more speculative gross long buying and/or producer short terminations.</blockquote>Europe generally produces less diesel than it consumes and relies on imports.But, interestingly, even as the 'normal' flow is into Europe, there is massive demand from the rest of the world - most notably Australia - where panic buying, especially in rural areas, has driven up demand and left some service stations out of fuel.<img width="500" height="340" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzIwMjYtMDQtMDJfMDYtMDEtNDIuanBnJnc9MTkyMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zerohedge.com/_next/image/query-cT03NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9hc3NldHMuemVyb2hlZGdlLmNvbS9zM2ZzLXB1YmxpYy9pbmxpbmUtaW1hZ2VzLzIwMjYtMDQtMDJfMDYtMDEtNDIuanBnJnc9MTkyMA"/>The government has urged conservation, blaming the shortages on hoarding rather than underlying supply disruptions.As Bloomberg concludes, with little sign of when the Hormuz waterway might be fully reopened, pressure is increasing on diesel markets.The fuel is the lifeblood of the global economy - used to power everything from trucks to construction equipment - and rising prices risk driving up inflation around the world.The secondary (and tertiary) impact of Trump's war in Iran are just getting started.</div></div>

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歐洲柴油期貨價格已飆升至每桶超過 200 美元，為 2022 年以來的最高水平，這一情況是由於伊朗衝突持續和霍爾木茲海峽關閉導致全球燃料競爭加劇。分析師警告稱，隨着衝突開始以來價格幾乎翻倍，歐洲可能面臨柴油短缺。其他地區，特別是澳大利亞的高需求進一步加劇了這一局面，恐慌性購買導致燃料短缺。不斷上漲的柴油價格可能會推動全球通貨膨脹，突顯出這一衝突的更廣泛經濟影響

"Everything About This Market Is Wild": European Diesel Futs Top $200 As Global Scramble Accelerates

ZeroHedge

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“這個市場的一切都很瘋狂”：隨着全球爭奪加劇，歐洲柴油期貨價格突破 200 美元