<div id="readability-page-1"><div id="parent_top_div">Crude oil sustaining above $100 per barrel will push the headline inflation above 6 per cent, the upper level of RBI's tolerance band, and trigger rate hikes, a foreign brokerage has said. Economists at HSBC said that consumer price inflation (CPI) will remain below 6 per cent if oil prices average below $100 per barrel, as per its modelling. &#34;... Sustained oil above USD100/bbl would push inflation beyond 6 per cent, likely triggering rate hikes,&#34; the economists said, adding that we are at &#34;crossroads&#34; as Brent has averaged $100 in March. Amid speculation ahead of next Wednesday's monetary policy announcement on whether the RBI uses interest rates to defend the rupee, the report suggested risks of such a move. &#34;An interest-rate defence for the INR can be expensive when the growth drag becomes non-linear and intensifies quickly with higher oil prices,&#34; it said. The economists recommended adopting a &#34;neutral&#34; stance on both the monetary and fiscal fronts for now, as the supplies are yet to be cleared and stimulating demand can stoke inflation. Pointing out that doing so would be akin to the experience during the COVID pandemic, the report said stimulating demand before supply was repaired led to high and sticky inflation back then. &#34;The lesson now is clear: avoid boosting demand too early. But this is a delicate balance. Policymakers don't want to overstimulate, but they also can't tighten so much that the growth slowdown deepens,&#34; it added. Elaborating on the &#34;neutral&#34; prescription, it said this would mean keeping the fiscal deficit close to FY26 levels and raising petrol and diesel prices to help contain the fiscal deficit. On the monetary side, the &#34;flexible&#34; inflation targeting framework allows inflation to stay within the 2-6 per cent range, it added. If the ongoing energy shock persists for a few more weeks, the growth drag could begin to outweigh the inflation shock, it said.</div></div>

滙豐

美國能源 ETF - iShares

匯豐控股有限公司

滙豐經濟學家警告稱，原油價格超過每桶 100 美元將推動通脹超過 6%，超出印度儲備銀行的容忍區間，並可能引發加息。他們建議在貨幣和財政政策上採取中性立場，以避免過度刺激需求，這可能導致高通脹，正如在 COVID 疫情期間所見。報告強調需要平衡增長與通脹，建議如果能源衝擊持續，增長的負面影響可能會超過通脹擔憂

Crude sustaining above $100 will push inflation beyond 6%, says HSBC

- 外資機構表示，原油維持在每桶 100 美元以上將推高通脹超 6%。  
- 滙豐經濟學家指出，若油價平均低於 100 美元，消費者價格通脹將低於 6%。  
- 報告建議採取中性政策，以避免早期刺激需求導致高通脹。

Business Standard

能源業 ETF - SPDR

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

FGX原油

HSBC Holdings plc ADRhedged

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

匯豐控股

英國石油

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

德銀原油基金 - PowerShares

和順石油

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

美國石油設備與服務 ETF - iShares

F三星原油期

西方石油

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

滙豐指出，若原油價格持續保持在每桶 100 美元以上，通脹率將超過 6%