<ul>
<li>世界銀行下調了對撒哈拉以南非洲 2026 年的增長預測</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>燃料、化肥成本上漲以及海灣投資的不確定性威脅脆弱經濟體</li>
</ul><ul>
<li>世界銀行表示，沉重的債務負擔限制了政府應對危機的能力</li>
</ul><p>由科琳·戈科報道</p><p>約翰內斯堡，4 月 8 日——世界銀行在週三發佈的一份報告中，下調了對撒哈拉以南非洲 2026 年的增長預測，稱伊朗戰爭的後果阻礙了該地區的復甦。</p><p>該行現在預計 2026 年的增長為 4.1%，與 2025 年持平，但低於去年 10 月的 4.4% 預測。自中東戰爭於 2 月底爆發以來，該行下調了預測，因為戰爭推動了燃料和化肥成本上升，並威脅到投資流入，而沉重的債務負擔已經對增長構成拖累。</p><p>這一警告發布之際，華盛頓與德黑蘭達成了為期兩週的停火協議，但美國能源信息署週二警告稱，即使霍爾木茲海峽重新開放後，燃料價格可能仍將在幾個月內持續上漲，約五分之一的全球原油運輸經由該海峽。</p><p>世界銀行非洲首席經濟學家安德魯·達巴倫表示，評級下調反映了比政策制定者去年年底預期的更為艱難的外部環境。</p><p>“自那以後，我們經歷了中東的持續戰爭，能源和化肥價格也大幅上漲，” 他在新聞發佈會上表示，並補充稱中斷的持續時間和規模尚不確定。</p><p>與此同時，圍繞海灣國家投資的不確定性正在加劇。這些國家已成為非洲，特別是東非，在採礦、可再生能源、房地產和信息通信技術等領域的主要投資方。如果持續的衝突削弱了中東的勞動力需求，許多非洲移民工作的匯款流也可能受到影響。</p><p>該衝擊發生時，許多政府應對措施的空間有限。達巴倫表示，債務服務成本已從 2017 年收入的 9% 上升至 2025 年的約 18%，而非洲國家中約一半處於高債務風險或已陷入債務困境。</p><p>“這些國家實際上沒有太多財政空間來應對這一危機，” 他説。</p><p>數據顯示，東部和南部非洲的衝擊集中在石油進口國和金融脆弱的經濟體，這些國家政策空間有限，包括布隆迪、馬拉維、埃塞俄比亞、肯尼亞和莫桑比克。在嚴重情況下，肯尼亞可能面臨劇烈的通脹衝擊，而埃塞俄比亞僅在沙特阿拉伯就有約 75 萬名工人。</p><p>達巴倫對西非的前景更加謹慎，他指出那裏的化肥數據仍不完整，可能會更新。</p><p>“這並不意味着西非在化肥方面可能會表現良好，” 他説。</p>

非洲 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<ul>
<li>Bank cuts 2026 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>世界銀行下調了對撒哈拉以南非洲 2026 年的增長預測</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>Rising fuel, fertilizer costs and uncertain Gulf investment threaten vulnerable economies</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>燃料、化肥成本上漲以及海灣投資的不確定性威脅脆弱經濟體</li>
</ul></div><ul>
<li>High debt burdens limit governments’ ability to respond to crisis, Bank says</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>世界銀行表示，沉重的債務負擔限制了政府應對危機的能力</li>
</ul></div><p>By Colleen Goko</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由科琳·戈科報道</p></div><p>JOHANNESBURG, April 8 - The World Bank cut its growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2026 in a report published on Wednesday, saying the fallout from the Iran war was stalling the region’s recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>約翰內斯堡，4 月 8 日——世界銀行在週三發佈的一份報告中，下調了對撒哈拉以南非洲 2026 年的增長預測，稱伊朗戰爭的後果阻礙了該地區的復甦。</p></div><p>The lender now expects growth of 4.1% in 2026, unchanged from 2025 but down from the 4.4% the World Bank forecast in October. Numbers were revised down since the war in the Middle East broke out in late February, pushing up fuel and fertilizer costs and threatening investment flows while heavy debt burdens already were a drag on growth, the bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行現在預計 2026 年的增長為 4.1%，與 2025 年持平，但低於去年 10 月的 4.4% 預測。自中東戰爭於 2 月底爆發以來，該行下調了預測，因為戰爭推動了燃料和化肥成本上升，並威脅到投資流入，而沉重的債務負擔已經對增長構成拖累。</p></div><p>The warning comes as Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, though the U.S. Energy Information Administration cautioned on Tuesday that fuel prices could continue to rise for months even after a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil shipments pass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一警告發布之際，華盛頓與德黑蘭達成了為期兩週的停火協議，但美國能源信息署週二警告稱，即使霍爾木茲海峽重新開放後，燃料價格可能仍將在幾個月內持續上漲，約五分之一的全球原油運輸經由該海峽。</p></div><p>Andrew Dabalen, World Bank chief economist for Africa, said the downgrade reflected a much tougher external environment than policymakers had expected late last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界銀行非洲首席經濟學家安德魯·達巴倫表示，評級下調反映了比政策制定者去年年底預期的更為艱難的外部環境。</p></div><p>“Since then, we have had the Middle East war that is ongoing, and both energy and fertilizer prices have risen sharply,” he said during a news briefing, adding the length and scale of the disruption was as yet uncertain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“自那以後，我們經歷了中東的持續戰爭，能源和化肥價格也大幅上漲，” 他在新聞發佈會上表示，並補充稱中斷的持續時間和規模尚不確定。</p></div><p>At the same time, uncertainty was growing around investment from Gulf countries, which have become major investors in Africa, especially in East Africa, in sectors including mining, renewable energy, real estate and ICT. Remittance flows could also come under pressure if prolonged conflict weakens labour demand in the Middle East, where many African migrants work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，圍繞海灣國家投資的不確定性正在加劇。這些國家已成為非洲，特別是東非，在採礦、可再生能源、房地產和信息通信技術等領域的主要投資方。如果持續的衝突削弱了中東的勞動力需求，許多非洲移民工作的匯款流也可能受到影響。</p></div><p>The shock is landing as many governments have little room to respond. Dabalen said debt-servicing costs had doubled from 9% of revenues in 2017 to about 18% in 2025, while about half of African countries were either at high risk of or already in debt distress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該衝擊發生時，許多政府應對措施的空間有限。達巴倫表示，債務服務成本已從 2017 年收入的 9% 上升至 2025 年的約 18%，而非洲國家中約一半處於高債務風險或已陷入債務困境。</p></div><p>“There is very little scope actually for these countries to deal with this crisis because they just don’t have a lot of fiscal space,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這些國家實際上沒有太多財政空間來應對這一危機，” 他説。</p></div><p>Data for eastern and southern Africa showed the strain was concentrated in oil-importing and financially vulnerable economies with limited policy room, including Burundi, Malawi, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mozambique. Kenya could face a sharp inflation shock under severe scenarios, while Ethiopia had about 750,000 workers in Saudi Arabia alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據顯示，東部和南部非洲的衝擊集中在石油進口國和金融脆弱的經濟體，這些國家政策空間有限，包括布隆迪、馬拉維、埃塞俄比亞、肯尼亞和莫桑比克。在嚴重情況下，肯尼亞可能面臨劇烈的通脹衝擊，而埃塞俄比亞僅在沙特阿拉伯就有約 75 萬名工人。</p></div><p>Dabalen was more cautious about the West Africa outlook, saying the fertilizer data there were still incomplete and could be updated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>達巴倫對西非的前景更加謹慎，他指出那裏的化肥數據仍不完整，可能會更新。</p></div><p>“You shouldn’t take this to mean that, in fact, West Africa is probably going to be okay when it comes to fertilizing,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這並不意味着西非在化肥方面可能會表現良好，” 他説。</p></div>

撒哈拉以南非洲面臨增長放緩，美國與伊朗戰爭推高成本