<p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
<p>一些貨幣政策制定者認為加息有 “強烈理由”——但他們屬於少數派</p>
<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾上週表示，目前還為時尚早，無法判斷伊朗戰爭對美國經濟的影響。</p>
<p>美聯儲官員對伊朗戰爭是否會損害美國勞動力市場或推高通脹意見不一，但更多的人擔心就業前景，聯邦儲備委員會 3 月政策會議的紀要顯示。</p>
<p>更多的美國貨幣政策制定者認為，美聯儲的下一步將是降低利率。根據紀要，“許多” 官員判斷，如果通脹按預期下降，最終可能適合降低聯邦基金利率的目標區間。</p>
<p>只有 “一些” 官員認為，美聯儲應該對下一步可能加息持開放態度，認為有 “強烈理由”。</p>
<p>“令人鼓舞的是，許多美聯儲領導人仍然相信，一旦油價通脹衝擊減退，降息將會發生，” 海軍聯邦信用合作社首席經濟學家希瑟·朗在一份研究報告中表示。</p>
<p>在戰爭開始之前，美聯儲正計劃在通脹回到目標時逐步降低利率。自衝突開始以來，汽油價格的飆升威脅到了這一計劃。</p>
<p>見：即使伊朗停火，通脹也不會很快減緩。這就是原因。</p>
<p>在 3 月 17 日至 18 日的會議上，美聯儲官員連續第二次將利率維持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 的區間。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾選擇不多談能源衝擊將如何影響經濟，採取了 “觀望” 的態度。</p>
<p>美聯儲官員堅持今年將降息一次的預測，但經濟學家認為中央銀行並不急於採取任何利率行動。</p>
<p>在討論戰爭影響時，“大多數” 美聯儲官員表示，長期衝突將削弱勞動力市場狀況，“這可能需要額外的降息。” 因為更高的油價（CL00）可能會減少家庭的消費能力。</p>
<p>少數美聯儲官員認為，戰爭提高了通脹在預期之外長期保持高位的風險。這可能需要加息以幫助降低通脹。</p>
<p>官員們得出結論，關於衝突將如何影響經濟 “還為時尚早”，並表示保持 “靈活” 是重要的。</p>
<p>美聯儲的工作人員預測，戰爭導致的股價下跌和原油價格上漲對經濟活動的影響 “微小”。工作人員略微下調了增長預期，並表示失業率在明年大部分時間將保持在當前水平附近。今年 1 月，美聯儲工作人員預計失業率將下降。</p>
<p>在美聯儲會議後的三週內，官員們仍然不確定前景。</p>
<p>“這是一個經濟不尋常的時期。存在重大風險，且不確定性很高，” 紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長約翰·威廉姆斯表示。</p>
<p>馬克·赫爾伯特：利率將走低——實際收益率表明美聯儲將降息半個百分點</p>
<p>到目前為止，中東衝突的影響比預期的要小，桑坦德首席美國經濟學家斯蒂芬·斯坦利在給客户的報告中表示。</p>
<p>在政府報告美國經濟在 3 月份新增了 178,000 個就業崗位後，關於勞動力市場的擔憂有所緩解。</p>
<p>“儘管有所有的擔憂……經濟實際上表現得相當不錯，” 德意志銀行首席美國經濟學家馬修·盧澤蒂在接受彭博社採訪時表示。“如果你退一步看，所有的總支出數據仍然看起來相當不錯，” 他補充道，消費者支出和商業投資依然穩健。</p>
<p>美國和伊朗於週二晚間達成為期兩週的停火，恰逢特朗普總統單方面設定的霍爾木茲海峽重新開放的最後期限。</p>
<p>不要錯過：伊朗採取措施減緩霍爾木茲海峽重新開放的進程</p>
<p>——Greg Robb</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>04-08-26 1609ET</p>

<p>美聯儲三月份會議的紀要顯示，官員們對利率變動存在分歧，許多人預計如果通脹下降可能會降息。雖然一些官員認為加息的理由充分，但大多數人對伊朗衝突背景下勞動力市場的前景表示擔憂。美聯儲將利率維持在 3.5%-3.75%，並預測今年將降息一次，但由於油價上漲及其對家庭支出的影響，不確定性依然很高。經濟學家指出，儘管存在擔憂，經濟表現良好</p>

<p>By Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>Some monetary-policy makers saw a 'strong case' for a hike - but they were in the minority</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些貨幣政策制定者認為加息有 “強烈理由”——但他們屬於少數派</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week it is still too soon to know the Iran war's impact on the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾上週表示，目前還為時尚早，無法判斷伊朗戰爭對美國經濟的影響。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve officials were split over whether the war with Iran would hurt the U.S. labor market or boost inflation, but more were worried about the outlook for jobs, minutes of the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting show.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲官員對伊朗戰爭是否會損害美國勞動力市場或推高通脹意見不一，但更多的人擔心就業前景，聯邦儲備委員會 3 月政策會議的紀要顯示。</p>
</div><p>More of the U.S. monetary-policy makers were in the camp that the next move by the Fed would be to lower interest rates. &#34;Many&#34; officials, according to the minutes, &#34;judged that, in time, it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal-funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多的美國貨幣政策制定者認為，美聯儲的下一步將是降低利率。根據紀要，“許多” 官員判斷，如果通脹按預期下降，最終可能適合降低聯邦基金利率的目標區間。</p>
</div><p>Only &#34;some&#34; officials judged there was a &#34;strong case&#34; for the Fed to be open to the possibility that the next move could be a rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有 “一些” 官員認為，美聯儲應該對下一步可能加息持開放態度，認為有 “強烈理由”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's encouraging that many Fed leaders still believe an interest-rate cut will happen once the gas-price inflation shock subsides,&#34; said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in a research note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“令人鼓舞的是，許多美聯儲領導人仍然相信，一旦油價通脹衝擊減退，降息將會發生，” 海軍聯邦信用合作社首席經濟學家希瑟·朗在一份研究報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Prior to the start of the war, the Fed was on a path to slowly lower rates as inflation moved back to its target. The spike in gasoline prices since the start of the conflict has threatened to upset that plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在戰爭開始之前，美聯儲正計劃在通脹回到目標時逐步降低利率。自衝突開始以來，汽油價格的飆升威脅到了這一計劃。</p>
</div><p>See: Inflation isn't going to slow anytime soon, even if the Iran cease-fire holds. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>見：即使伊朗停火，通脹也不會很快減緩。這就是原因。</p>
</div><p>At their meeting held March 17-18, Fed officials kept rates steady in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% for a second straight meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell chose not to say too much about how the energy shock would affect the economy, adopting a &#34;wait and see&#34; stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 3 月 17 日至 18 日的會議上，美聯儲官員連續第二次將利率維持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 的區間。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾選擇不多談能源衝擊將如何影響經濟，採取了 “觀望” 的態度。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials stuck to a forecast of one rate cut this year, but economists think the central bank is in no rush to do anything with rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲官員堅持今年將降息一次的預測，但經濟學家認為中央銀行並不急於採取任何利率行動。</p>
</div><p>In their discussion on the impact of the war, &#34;most&#34; Fed officials said that a protracted conflict would soften labor-market conditions, &#34;which could warrant additional rate cuts.&#34; That's because higher oil prices (CL00) could reduce household spending power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在討論戰爭影響時，“大多數” 美聯儲官員表示，長期衝突將削弱勞動力市場狀況，“這可能需要額外的降息。” 因為更高的油價（CL00）可能會減少家庭的消費能力。</p>
</div><p>A smaller number of Fed officials made the case that the war raised the risk that inflation would remain elevated for longer than otherwise expected. That could call for rate increases to help bring inflation down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>少數美聯儲官員認為，戰爭提高了通脹在預期之外長期保持高位的風險。這可能需要加息以幫助降低通脹。</p>
</div><p>Officials concluded that it was &#34;too early to know&#34; how the conflict would affect the economy, and said it was important to remain &#34;nimble.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官員們得出結論，關於衝突將如何影響經濟 “還為時尚早”，並表示保持 “靈活” 是重要的。</p>
</div><p>The Fed's staff forecast built in a &#34;small effect&#34; on economic activity from lower equity prices and higher crude-oil prices due to the war. The staff slightly lowered its estimate for growth and said the unemployment rate would remain near its current level for most of the next year. In January, the Fed staff projected the unemployment rate would move lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲的工作人員預測，戰爭導致的股價下跌和原油價格上漲對經濟活動的影響 “微小”。工作人員略微下調了增長預期，並表示失業率在明年大部分時間將保持在當前水平附近。今年 1 月，美聯儲工作人員預計失業率將下降。</p>
</div><p>In the three weeks since the Fed meeting, officials are still not sure about the outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美聯儲會議後的三週內，官員們仍然不確定前景。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's an unusual time for the economy. There are substantial risks, and uncertainty is high,&#34; said New York Fed President John Williams.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這是一個經濟不尋常的時期。存在重大風險，且不確定性很高，” 紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長約翰·威廉姆斯表示。</p>
</div><p>Mark Hulbert: Interest rates are headed lower - real yields suggest a half-point Fed cut is coming</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬克·赫爾伯特：利率將走低——實際收益率表明美聯儲將降息半個百分點</p>
</div><p>So far, the fallout from the Middle East conflict has been smaller than anticipated, said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander, in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，中東衝突的影響比預期的要小，桑坦德首席美國經濟學家斯蒂芬·斯坦利在給客户的報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Worries about the labor market eased somewhat after the government reported the U.S. economy added a solid 178,000 jobs in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在政府報告美國經濟在 3 月份新增了 178,000 個就業崗位後，關於勞動力市場的擔憂有所緩解。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Despite all the worries ... the economy is actually performing quite well,&#34; said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, in an interview with Bloomberg. &#34;If you take a step back, all of the aggregate spending data still looks quite good,&#34; he added, with consumer spending and business investment remaining solid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“儘管有所有的擔憂……經濟實際上表現得相當不錯，” 德意志銀行首席美國經濟學家馬修·盧澤蒂在接受彭博社採訪時表示。“如果你退一步看，所有的總支出數據仍然看起來相當不錯，” 他補充道，消費者支出和商業投資依然穩健。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. and Iran entered into a two-week cease-fire late Tuesday, just before President Donald Trump's unilateral deadline for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz arrived.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國和伊朗於週二晚間達成為期兩週的停火，恰逢特朗普總統單方面設定的霍爾木茲海峽重新開放的最後期限。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Iran moves to put the brakes on reopening the Strait of Hormuz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要錯過：伊朗採取措施減緩霍爾木茲海峽重新開放的進程</p>
</div><p>-Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>04-08-26 1609ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>04-08-26 1609ET</p>
</div>

Many Fed officials think rate cuts still likely, March meeting minutes show

- 美聯儲官員對伊朗戰爭對美國經濟的影響存在分歧。  
- 預計如果通脹下降，可能會降息，但也有人擔心通脹上升。  
- 派系爭論表明，未來經濟前景依然不明朗。

三月會議紀要顯示，許多美聯儲官員認為降息仍然有可能