<p>華盛頓，4 月 9 日（路透社）——美國 2 月份的通脹如預期有所上升，並可能在 3 月份因與伊朗的戰爭進一步上升，這一趨勢預計將阻止美聯儲在短期內降息。</p><p>美國商務部經濟分析局週四表示，個人消費支出物價指數在 2 月份上升了 0.4%，此前 1 月份的數據未經修正為增長 0.3%。路透社調查的經濟學家預計 PCE 物價指數將增長 0.4%。截至 2 月的 12 個月內，PCE 通脹率上漲了 2.8%，與 1 月份的增幅相同。</p><p>經濟分析局仍在處理因去年政府停擺導致的數據發佈延遲問題。在戰爭之前，因唐納德·特朗普總統的進口關税，美國通脹已經處於較高水平。</p><p>美以與伊朗的戰爭推高了全球油價，使全國汽油零售價格平均漲至每加侖超過 4 美元，為三年來的最高水平。經濟學家預計 3 月的數據將更加顯著地反映該衝突對通脹的影響。特朗普週二宣佈了為期兩週的停火，條件是德黑蘭重新開放被封鎖的霍爾木茲海峽，該事件也影響了化肥及其他商品的運輸。這些干擾預計將推高食品價格。剔除波動較大的食品和能源成分後，PCE 物價指數在 2 月份增長了 0.4%，連續第三個月呈同樣增長幅度。截至 2 月的 12 個月內，所謂的核心 PCE 通脹率上漲至 3.0%，此前 1 月為 3.1%。</p><p>同比核心 PCE 通脹率的放緩反映出去年較高的數值從計算中剔除。</p><p>美國中央銀行根據 PCE 物價指標追蹤其 2% 的通脹目標。經濟學家表示，每月 PCE 通脹率需要持續增長 0.2%，才能將通脹恢復到目標水平。美聯儲 3 月 17-18 日的政策會議記錄顯示，越來越多的美聯儲決策者在上個月感到可能需要加息以對抗通脹。</p><p>會議記錄還顯示，“與會者指出，中東地區的持續衝突可能會導致能源價格更加持久地上漲，而這些較高的投入成本更可能滲透到核心通脹中。”</p><p>美聯儲將其基準隔夜利率維持在 3.50%-3.75% 的範圍內。今年降息的可能性已大幅減小。高價格是 2 月支出增長的部分原因。佔經濟活動超過三分之二的消費者支出在 2 月份增長了 0.5%，此前 1 月份增長了 0.3%。經濟學家預測支出將增長 0.5%。</p><p>高昂的汽油價格可能會抑制在其他類別的支出，但今年的大規模退税可能為低收入家庭提供某種緩衝。戰爭導致 3 月股市蒸發約 3.2 萬億美元，這可能迫使高收入家庭削減支出。他們一直是消費和整體經濟的主要驅動力。</p>

3 倍做多納指 ETF - ProShares

金融業 ETF - SPDR

美國經紀商&證券交易所 ETF - iShares

<p>WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation increased as expected in February and likely rose further in March amid the war with Iran, a trend that is expected to discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates for a while.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華盛頓，4 月 9 日（路透社）——美國 2 月份的通脹如預期有所上升，並可能在 3 月份因與伊朗的戰爭進一步上升，這一趨勢預計將阻止美聯儲在短期內降息。</p></div><p>The personal consumption expenditures price index climbed 0.4% after an unrevised 0.3 gain in January, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index rising 0.4%. In the 12 months through February, PCE inflation advanced 2.8% after increasing by the same margin in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國商務部經濟分析局週四表示，個人消費支出物價指數在 2 月份上升了 0.4%，此前 1 月份的數據未經修正為增長 0.3%。路透社調查的經濟學家預計 PCE 物價指數將增長 0.4%。截至 2 月的 12 個月內，PCE 通脹率上漲了 2.8%，與 1 月份的增幅相同。</p></div><p>The BEA is still catching up on data releases following delays caused by last year’s government shutdown. Inflation was already elevated before the war, largely because of President Donald Trump’s import duties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟分析局仍在處理因去年政府停擺導致的數據發佈延遲問題。在戰爭之前，因唐納德·特朗普總統的進口關税，美國通脹已經處於較高水平。</p></div><p>The U.S.-Israel war with Iran boosted global oil prices and sent the national average gasoline retail price soaring above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years. Economists expect the inflation fallout from the conflict, which started at the end of February, would be more pronounced in March’s data. Trump on Tuesday announced a two-week ceasefire on condition of Tehran reopening the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, which has also affected shipments of fertilizers and other goods. The disruptions are expected to raise food prices. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.4% in February, rising by the same margin for a third straight month. In the 12 months through February, so-called core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% following a 3.1% increase in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美以與伊朗的戰爭推高了全球油價，使全國汽油零售價格平均漲至每加侖超過 4 美元，為三年來的最高水平。經濟學家預計 3 月的數據將更加顯著地反映該衝突對通脹的影響。特朗普週二宣佈了為期兩週的停火，條件是德黑蘭重新開放被封鎖的霍爾木茲海峽，該事件也影響了化肥及其他商品的運輸。這些干擾預計將推高食品價格。剔除波動較大的食品和能源成分後，PCE 物價指數在 2 月份增長了 0.4%，連續第三個月呈同樣增長幅度。截至 2 月的 12 個月內，所謂的核心 PCE 通脹率上漲至 3.0%，此前 1 月為 3.1%。</p></div><p>The slowdown in year-on-year core PCE inflation reflected last year’s high readings dropping out of the calculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同比核心 PCE 通脹率的放緩反映出去年較高的數值從計算中剔除。</p></div><p>The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target. Economists say monthly PCE inflation needs to increase 0.2% for a sustained period to bring inflation back to target. Minutes of the Fed’s March 17-18 policy meeting released on Wednesday showed a growing group of Federal Reserve policymakers felt last month that interest rate hikes might be needed to counter inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國中央銀行根據 PCE 物價指標追蹤其 2% 的通脹目標。經濟學家表示，每月 PCE 通脹率需要持續增長 0.2%，才能將通脹恢復到目標水平。美聯儲 3 月 17-18 日的政策會議記錄顯示，越來越多的美聯儲決策者在上個月感到可能需要加息以對抗通脹。</p></div><p>They also showed “participants noted that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely lead to more persistent increases in energy prices and that these higher input costs would be more likely to pass through to core inflation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>會議記錄還顯示，“與會者指出，中東地區的持續衝突可能會導致能源價格更加持久地上漲，而這些較高的投入成本更可能滲透到核心通脹中。”</p></div><p>The Fed left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. The odds of a rate cut this year have greatly diminished. High prices accounted for some of the rise in spending in February. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.5% after increasing 0.3% in January. Economists had forecast spending advancing 0.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲將其基準隔夜利率維持在 3.50%-3.75% 的範圍內。今年降息的可能性已大幅減小。高價格是 2 月支出增長的部分原因。佔經濟活動超過三分之二的消費者支出在 2 月份增長了 0.5%，此前 1 月份增長了 0.3%。經濟學家預測支出將增長 0.5%。</p></div><p>Expensive gasoline could pull spending away from other categories, though large tax refunds this year could provide lower-income households with some cushion. The war wiped off about $3.2 trillion from the stock market in March, which could force higher-income households to cut back on spending. They have been the main drivers of spending and the overall economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高昂的汽油價格可能會抑制在其他類別的支出，但今年的大規模退税可能為低收入家庭提供某種緩衝。戰爭導致 3 月股市蒸發約 3.2 萬億美元，這可能迫使高收入家庭削減支出。他們一直是消費和整體經濟的主要驅動力。</p></div>

US PCE inflation picks up in February; consumer spending solid

- 美國 2 月 PCE 通脹上漲 0.4%， 預計 3 月將進一步上升。  
- 伊朗戰爭推動全球油價上漲，消費者支出在 2 月增長 0.5%。  
- 美聯儲可能因通脹壓力延遲降息，基準利率維持在 3.50%-3.75%。

美國 PCE 通脹數據 2 月上升；消費者支出穩健