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<p>Circle Internet Group 的股票在週四大幅下跌，此前 Compass Point 的分析師下調了該股票評級，理由是對其核心 USDC 業務即將面臨的利潤壓縮表示擔憂。</p>
<p>該股票下跌了 7.44%，至 87.41 美元，扭轉了 2026 年截至週三上漲 19% 後的部分近期漲幅。</p>
<p>Compass Point 將其評級從中性下調至賣出，並將目標價從 79 美元下調至 77 美元，警告稱近期的增長趨勢可能無法轉化為更強的盈利能力。</p>
<h2>增長轉向低利潤渠道</h2>
<p>儘管 USDC——該公司的旗艦美元掛鈎穩定幣——的供應保持韌性，但分析師強調了增長髮生地的結構性轉變。</p>
<p>根據 Compass Point 的數據，自 2 月初以來，近 80% 的 USDC 供應增長來自 Sky、Binance 和 Ethena 等平台。</p>
<p>這些合作關係涉及分銷協議，減少了 Circle 從 USDC 儲備中產生的利息收入份額。</p>
<p>Circle 在這些網絡之外持有的 USDC 賺取更高的利潤，稱為 “離線供應”。</p>
<p>因此，向以合作伙伴驅動的增長轉變正在稀釋盈利能力，即使整體採用率上升。</p>
<p>這種動態標誌着與以往加密貨幣下跌的不同，以往 USDC 供應通常會下降。</p>
<p>在當前環境中，收益分享安排支持了流通水平，但同時對利潤施加壓力。</p>
<h2>盈利風險在業績前加劇</h2>
<p>分析師預計這些趨勢將對即將發佈的業績產生影響，Compass Point 預測盈利能力將下降。</p>
<p>“CRCL 的第一季度業績可能無法滿足上升的預期，” Ed Engel 寫道。“展望第二季度，合作平台上的 USDC 仍高於第一季度的平均水平。因此，如果當前趨勢持續，我們預計毛利率將繼續承壓。”</p>
<p>該公司估計 Circle 的息税折舊攤銷前利潤在第一季度將比上一季度下降 19%。其對 2027 財年 EBITDA 的預測也比華爾街共識預期低 20%。</p>
<p>這一警告是在投資者越來越關注增長質量而不僅僅是 USDC 供應擴張的背景下發出的。</p>
<h2>利率敏感性和多元化挑戰</h2>
<p>Circle 的商業模式仍然嚴重依賴於 USDC 背後儲備產生的利息收入。在 2025 年第四季度，儲備收入佔總收入的 [MONEY value=&#34;733000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，總收入為 [MONEY value=&#34;770000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，突顯了其對現行利率的依賴。</p>
<p>儘管 USDC 流通在此期間增長了 72%，達到 [MONEY value=&#34;75300000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，但儲備回報率的下降部分抵消了這一好處，突顯了公司對宏觀經濟條件的暴露。</p>
<p>這種利率敏感性為盈利引入了波動性，使 Circle 更像是一個依賴收益環境的金融平台，而不是傳統的科技公司。</p>
<p>為了解決這一問題，公司正在擴展到新的領域，包括 Circle Payments Network、StableFX 和其 Arc 區塊鏈基礎設施。</p>
<p>然而，非利息收入仍佔總收入的相對小部分，表明多元化仍處於早期階段。</p>
<p>儘管 Compass Point 的前景謹慎，但更廣泛的華爾街情緒仍然較為平衡。</p>
<p>在 FactSet 追蹤的 27 位分析師中，48% 將該股票評級為買入，44% 給予持有評級，平均目標價為 131.29 美元。</p>
<p>儘管如此，短期前景仍取決於 Circle 能否在不進一步侵蝕利潤的情況下維持增長——這一挑戰可能會影響未來幾個月的投資者情緒。</p>
<p>該文章的標題為 “Circle 股票下跌，分析師警告利潤壓縮即將到來”，首次發佈於 Invezz。</p>

CRCL

CRCG

CRCD

CRCA

<p>Circle Internet Group 的股價下跌 7.44%，至 87.41 美元，此前 Compass Point 的分析師將該股票評級下調至 “賣出”，理由是對其 USDC 業務的利潤壓縮表示擔憂。此次下調反映了對近期增長趨勢可能不會帶來更強盈利能力的擔憂，因為增長轉向了低利潤渠道。分析師預測第一季度的 EBITDA 將下降 19%，2027 財年的預估將下降 20%。儘管華爾街的情緒較為平衡，但短期前景取決於 Circle 能否在不進一步侵蝕利潤的情況下維持增長</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/Investor-looking-at-falling-stock-market-chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/Investor-looking-at-falling-stock-market-chart.png"/></p>
<p>Shares of Circle Internet Group fell sharply on Thursday after analysts at Compass Point downgraded the stock, citing concerns over a looming margin squeeze tied to its core USDC business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Circle Internet Group 的股票在週四大幅下跌，此前 Compass Point 的分析師下調了該股票評級，理由是對其核心 USDC 業務即將面臨的利潤壓縮表示擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The stock declined 7.44% to $87.41, reversing some of its recent gains after rising 19% so far in 2026 till Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該股票下跌了 7.44%，至 87.41 美元，扭轉了 2026 年截至週三上漲 19% 後的部分近期漲幅。</p>
</div><p>Compass Point cut its rating to Sell from Neutral and trimmed its price target to $77 from $79, warning that recent growth trends may not translate into stronger profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Compass Point 將其評級從中性下調至賣出，並將目標價從 79 美元下調至 77 美元，警告稱近期的增長趨勢可能無法轉化為更強的盈利能力。</p>
</div><h2>Growth shifts toward lower-margin channels</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增長轉向低利潤渠道</h2>
</div><p>While supply of USDC—the company’s flagship dollar-pegged stablecoin—has remained resilient, analysts highlighted a structural shift in where that growth is occurring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 USDC——該公司的旗艦美元掛鈎穩定幣——的供應保持韌性，但分析師強調了增長髮生地的結構性轉變。</p>
</div><p>According to Compass Point, just under 80% of USDC supply growth since early February has come from platforms such as Sky, Binance, and Ethena.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Compass Point 的數據，自 2 月初以來，近 80% 的 USDC 供應增長來自 Sky、Binance 和 Ethena 等平台。</p>
</div><p>These partnerships involve distribution agreements that reduce Circle’s share of interest income generated from USDC reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些合作關係涉及分銷協議，減少了 Circle 從 USDC 儲備中產生的利息收入份額。</p>
</div><p>Circle earns higher margins on USDC held outside these networks, referred to as “off-platform” supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Circle 在這些網絡之外持有的 USDC 賺取更高的利潤，稱為 “離線供應”。</p>
</div><p>The shift toward partnership-driven growth is therefore diluting profitability even as overall adoption rises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，向以合作伙伴驅動的增長轉變正在稀釋盈利能力，即使整體採用率上升。</p>
</div><p>This dynamic marks a departure from previous crypto downturns, when USDC supply typically declined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種動態標誌着與以往加密貨幣下跌的不同，以往 USDC 供應通常會下降。</p>
</div><p>In the current environment, yield-sharing arrangements are supporting circulation levels but simultaneously pressuring margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前環境中，收益分享安排支持了流通水平，但同時對利潤施加壓力。</p>
</div><h2>Earnings risks build ahead of results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>盈利風險在業績前加劇</h2>
</div><p>Analysts expect these trends to weigh on upcoming earnings, with Compass Point forecasting a decline in profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預計這些趨勢將對即將發佈的業績產生影響，Compass Point 預測盈利能力將下降。</p>
</div><p>“CRCL’s 1Q results could underwhelm rising expectations,” wrote Ed Engel. “Looking into 2Q, USDC across partnership platforms remains above 1Q’s average level. Therefore, we expect gross margins to remain under pressure if current trends persist.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“CRCL 的第一季度業績可能無法滿足上升的預期，” Ed Engel 寫道。“展望第二季度，合作平台上的 USDC 仍高於第一季度的平均水平。因此，如果當前趨勢持續，我們預計毛利率將繼續承壓。”</p>
</div><p>The firm estimates that Circle’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization will fall 19% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. Its forecast for fiscal 2027 EBITDA is also 20% below Wall Street consensus estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司估計 Circle 的息税折舊攤銷前利潤在第一季度將比上一季度下降 19%。其對 2027 財年 EBITDA 的預測也比華爾街共識預期低 20%。</p>
</div><p>The warning comes as investors increasingly focus on the quality of growth rather than just expansion in USDC supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一警告是在投資者越來越關注增長質量而不僅僅是 USDC 供應擴張的背景下發出的。</p>
</div><h2>Rate sensitivity and diversification challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率敏感性和多元化挑戰</h2>
</div><p>Circle’s business model remains heavily tied to interest income generated from reserves backing USDC. In the fourth quarter of 2025, reserve income accounted for [MONEY value=&#34;733000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;] out of total revenue of [MONEY value=&#34;770000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;], underscoring its reliance on prevailing interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Circle 的商業模式仍然嚴重依賴於 USDC 背後儲備產生的利息收入。在 2025 年第四季度，儲備收入佔總收入的 [MONEY value=&#34;733000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，總收入為 [MONEY value=&#34;770000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，突顯了其對現行利率的依賴。</p>
</div><p>While USDC circulation grew 72% to [MONEY value=&#34;75300000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;] during the period, a decline in reserve return rates partially offset the benefits, highlighting the company’s exposure to macroeconomic conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 USDC 流通在此期間增長了 72%，達到 [MONEY value=&#34;75300000000&#34; currency=&#34;usd&#34; notation=&#34;long&#34; replace=&#34;false&#34;]，但儲備回報率的下降部分抵消了這一好處，突顯了公司對宏觀經濟條件的暴露。</p>
</div><p>This rate sensitivity introduces volatility into earnings, positioning Circle more like a financial platform dependent on yield environments than a traditional technology firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種利率敏感性為盈利引入了波動性，使 Circle 更像是一個依賴收益環境的金融平台，而不是傳統的科技公司。</p>
</div><p>To address this, the company is expanding into new areas, including Circle Payments Network, StableFX, and its Arc blockchain infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了解決這一問題，公司正在擴展到新的領域，包括 Circle Payments Network、StableFX 和其 Arc 區塊鏈基礎設施。</p>
</div><p>However, non-interest income remains a relatively small portion of total revenue, indicating that diversification is still in its early stages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，非利息收入仍佔總收入的相對小部分，表明多元化仍處於早期階段。</p>
</div><p>Despite the cautious outlook from Compass Point, broader Wall Street sentiment remains more balanced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Compass Point 的前景謹慎，但更廣泛的華爾街情緒仍然較為平衡。</p>
</div><p>Of 27 analysts tracked by FactSet, 48% rate the stock a Buy, while 44% have a Hold rating, with an average price target of $131.29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 FactSet 追蹤的 27 位分析師中，48% 將該股票評級為買入，44% 給予持有評級，平均目標價為 131.29 美元。</p>
</div><p>Still, the near-term outlook hinges on whether Circle can sustain growth without further eroding margins—a challenge that could shape investor sentiment in the months ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，短期前景仍取決於 Circle 能否在不進一步侵蝕利潤的情況下維持增長——這一挑戰可能會影響未來幾個月的投資者情緒。</p>
</div><p>The post Circle stock drops as analysts warn of margin squeeze ahead appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該文章的標題為 “Circle 股票下跌，分析師警告利潤壓縮即將到來”，首次發佈於 Invezz。</p>
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Circle 的股票下跌，分析師警告稱未來可能面臨利潤率擠壓